01 October 2008

Offseason Series: San Diego Padres

If she plays, I'll watch. Otherwise, I'll let the nice people of San Diego suffer.


Well, the Padres can be tabbed as another one of those teams we loved and were disappointed in. Jake Peavy was Jake Peavy (although his record didn't show it). Greg Maddux gave what he had. But, Chris Young wasn't so good, Randy Wolf was maybe solid, and no one else stepped up in the rotation. In the bullpen, things weren't great either, and the great Trevor Hoffman almost had a 4 ERA. As for the offense, it was pretty abominable other than Brian Giles, Jody Gerut, Adrian Gonzalez, and maybe Kevin Kouzmanoff. All together, it was a 63-99 team.

For the backstop, Josh Bard was the guy, but Dierkes thinks he'll be non-tendered. That leaves Nick Hundley, who is 25 but didn't give much production. There's nothing in the minors, so it appears that Hundley will be the guy. Considering the Padres don't want to go over $50M next season, I wouldn't expect them to go out into free-agency for someone, but Paul Lo Duca and Greg Zaun might make sense. They would be a waste of money though.

At first, the Padres have one of the most underrated players in the game in Adrian Gonzalez. He's simply amazing, and he should be there for a long time (he's very reasonably signed through 2011). However, if the Padres wanted to rebuild, he'd bring back so much it would be ridiculous. Why isn't this quite so ludicrous? Kyle Banks had a monster year in AA, and if the Pads are out of it come July, they could trade Gonzalez and bring up Banks. Then again, can Banks play right or left?

Second base is pretty certain in that Matt Antonelli is going to get his shot, but he gave no real confidence for that with a poor showing in AAA and the majors. He's still a hot prospect, but maybe only simmering now. There's not much else in the system, so unless they dip into free-agency (I don't see it), it's Antonelli's job.

Third base is like first base for the Padres. Kouzmanoff gets some bad press, but he's actually not bad at all (unless you really want to count walks; 23 by the way). He even made strides on defense by committing half as many errors as last season. Chase Headley could be another option, but he'll likely start in left. Peter Cifrone could be another option if the Padres go the trade route. I doubt it.

Khalil Greene seems entrenched at shortstop, mainly because he's an excellent defensive shortstop and the organization's stubborn belief that he's a good hitter. He's not, but he's decent. Brett Dowdy could be an in-house option, but they'll stick with Greene.

The outfield could be the strength for the Padres. Headley hit pretty well in his time in the majors, and he should get better next season (breakout guy?). Jody Gerut revived his career, but can you really expect him to do the same next year? I don't. In right, Giles' option will probably be picked up, and he's always a solid but not spectacular guy. He gives you a good BA, OBP, and defense. What else do you really want? Paul McAnulty might continue to tease, but Will Venable could be a darkhorse guy and could push Gerut out of town. Drew Macias could be another option, but they'll probably have to wait another year on him.

The rotation is a bit iffy for next season. Jake Peavy and Chris Young will be the 1 and 2. After that, it's up in the air. Cha Seung Baek, Wade LeBlanc, and Josh Banks could fill in the rest of the rotation, but none were great. Chad Reineke is another option. Could Matthew Buschmann be an option after a great year in AA? My guess is they'll scorunge around for a Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, or Brad Penny (like the Randy Wolf signing) that may not take too much to sign. It could be another long year for the Pads next season if they don't improve here.

As for the bullpen, Mike Adams, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, and Justin Hampson seem locked in, and that's not bad at all. Hoffman will probably come back as well, and he could be decent and could be Todd Jones. We might not know, but he did have a 9.13 K/9, which isn't bad at all either. Dirk Hayhurst and Joe Thatcher are other good in-house options. If they want free-agents, they could get an Al Reyes or Rudy Seanez, but they'd probably be best by sticking to what they have considering payroll limitations.

After looking through this team, it seems next year will follow right along with this one. The rotation that was a major strength is now a gaping hole. The bullpen still looks fairly good though. As for the offense, it probably won't improve much if at all. Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Headley, and Giles might make up a decent middle of the order, but there doesn't seem to be too much help from the other spots. Especially with trying to keep a payroll around $50M, the Padres don't have much flexibility with big salaries due to Peavy, Greene, Giles, and Hoffman.

2 comments:

Jason @ IIATMS said...

Except Peavy SHOULD be traded to create flexability and restock the team with youth and cheaper players under control. Peavy will eat ONE-THIRD of the possible payroll next year.

Mark: I riffed on this today, too: http://itsaboutthemoney.blogspot.com/2008/10/peavy-available.html

tHeMARksMiTh said...

I agree, but will they do it. It would almost be like conceding defeat, and unless you're Billy Beane, you generally don't do that in the offseason. Something about unquestionable optimism.