08 October 2008

Prince Fielder

This is where Prince landed.


There have been a lot of rumors talking about the Brewers possibly trading Prince Fielder. For the most part, it seems people are very scared of Prince's weight, so they won't give up as much for him. There were also rumors of a Matt Cain-for-Prince Fielder trade, but most people seem to think that the Giants would get the raw end of the deal. But would they?

Fielder took a step back this season as he hit 16 fewer HR than he did last year, but you kind of had to expect that considering his mammoth 2007 season. People pitched to him more carefully, and he failed to adjust (his BB went down and K went up). Once he makes some adjustments, he should get back to about 40 HR next season. That's a middle of the order bat that has a career line of .278/.370/.533. He's not just some ordinary hacker. While 134 K isn't good, it could be much worse. Defensively, he is a liability, but seriously, when was the last time someone turned down a 40 HR guy who couldn't catch?

Matt Cain took a tiny step back this season as his ERA rose .1 and he walked 12 more people, but he did pitch 17 more innings. When most think of this guy, they see a number one pitcher, but is he? His lowest ERA is 3.65, which is good but that would make Jurrjens a legit ace. I'm not sure either of which is true. It's true Cain gives you IP and K, but he walks quite a few and gives up hits. His career GB/FB is .78 (indicating he is a flyball pitcher). Outside of the friendly confines of PacBell (AT&T, whatever) Park and the offensively challenged West, would he be as successful? Again, he misses bats, but those innings and fastballs might eventually take their toll on him, leading to injury or decline. That and he's not an ace. He's a good number two, but he's not an ace yet.

Honestly, a contending team should really think about trading for Fielder. Several teams need a first baseman, and he's an impact addition. You'd be getting a 3 year, below-market contract for a 40 HR guy, and by the time his body really begins to wear down, he'll head for free-agency and you get two drafts and three attempts at the playoffs and World Series. All for some prospects. I'd think about it.

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