The Debate on Peavy

Ante up. It's time to go all in.

I can't stand it. It makes my head ache. It makes my heart ache. It makes me excited. It makes me incredibly worried. My emotions rise. My stomach twists. This is the Jake Peavy situation. Do the Braves go after him or not? The more reports on him continue to have the Braves as ardent suitors for the ace, but of course, none of the reports actually say anything that means something. For all we know, they could be completely false. They could be half-truths. They could be the naked truth. Instead, I'm left here to twist and turn in my own head debating how good/bad this could be. So, let's get it out in the open.

Go Get Him
The Braves came in to the offseason in desperate need of starting pitching. They need it like they need vegetables. They're not absolutely necessary because you have other alternative, but the vegetables make you healthier. The Braves rotation consists of Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and then a rag-tag group of guys who have failed in their short stints or haven't even had short stints. But then, there's Peavy. He has a career ERA of 3.25, but 4 of his past 5 seasons have seen ERA's south of 3. He always seems to strikeout more than innings pitched, and he doesn't walk all that many people. I realize he had a little bit of a bump in the road, but that may have been due to his elbow injury early in the season. Because he pitched fairly well after that, I'll assume he's okay, and another offseason of rest will make things better. He's been durable in his career, never making less than 27 starts. As for his contract, he'll make $8M, $15M, $16M, $17M, and possible $22M over the length of his contract. Essentially, you'll get an ace for a relatively low cost, especially next year, for four seasons. That's a great contract. As for the no-trade clause, it actually helps the Braves. They are on a list of select teams who can get him. I'm guessing other teams would be interested, so this brings down the price to get him (although not much considering some of the teams on the list). As for what the Padres need in return, they're just prospects. Wouldn't you rather have a bonafide ace than unproven prospects?

Stay Away
I really, really want him. I want him so bad it kept me up until 5 in the morning last night thinking about it. This is how sad I am. However, making decisions based on emotions is usually a bad idea. Did you ever think how bad getting married for love really is? It's based on a potentially-fleeting emotion of lust and infatuation combined with some sense of being able to "get along" (I realize this is cynical and no where near Romantic, but you have to agree on some level). I am incredibly infatuated with Peavy, similar to how I am with this girl that sits two rows behind me in history class. Just because I want her doesn't mean she's good for me.

The Real Debate
Back to strictly baseball, the Braves don't have the farm system they once had, and everyone's a little gun-shy after the Mark Teixeira fiasco. However, Peavy is for four years instead of one and a half, but can the Braves really afford to give up more prospects? Reports indicate the Padres want two pitchers and a near-ready center fielder. This indicates to me that the first thing they asked for was Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen/Todd Redmond/Charlie Morton, and Jordan Schafer. The Braves need starting pitching, and good young starting pitching could solve a lot of problems. But still, giving up two still leaves them with two. Two who could end up just as good. As for center fielders, they can have Schafer. The Braves have a glut of outfielders, and Josh Anderson could do well there until Gorkys Hernandez is ready. Pitching is the big deterrent. Then again, if the Braves get Peavy and a free-agent (with $37M left, couldn't they make a run at Sabathia? Don't worry about the next years because Tim Hudson won't be there and his $15M is off the books making room), they won't need young starting pitching as much knowing that the ace through 3 spots are taken for the next four seasons. The Braves have really good pitching at A ball that could be here by the time Peavy walks away. But is it good to invest so much money in those pitchers knowing there are some good choices in your farm system? Will they even pan out thus losing the opportunity to have gained something for nothing? Also, the Braves are going to spend on free-agency anyway, thus still clogging up spots for the next few seasons anyway. The young pitchers could make the rotation much better, but again, there are still choices. The Braves want to get back to winning by pitching, and adding Peavy and someone else would really get back to that.

So what to do? I say offer them Josh Anderson/Gregor Blanco, Brent Lillibridge, Kris Medlen/Todd Redmond, and Scott Diamond (best ERA in the Braves' system) for Peavy. That gives them their center fielder, second baseman, and two pretty good pitchers. If the Padres want the deal talked about above involving Hanson and Schafer, I would be hard-pressed to say no unless they wanted a whole lot more. I'm sorry, but knowing they'll spend anyway for starting pitching, I really have to say they should get Peavy. If they get hurt, the Braves are screwed anyway.