Add the playoff atmosphere and maybe Shields doesn't whiff on Crisp this time.Red Sox: 9th in ERA, 8th in Starter's ERA, 11th in Bullpen ERA, 3rd in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored
Well, the Red Sox screwed up my perfect first round. I had three of fours teams, which isn't bad. As for this series, you have the unstoppable Red Sox vs. the scrappy Rays (Does that sound like a bar?). Looking at stats, the Rays have the edge in pitching while the Red Sox have the better offense. Each team played really well in their division series, so it should be an interesting match-up. Let's dive in.
Why the Red Sox win:
No one can top their experience, and when it comes to crunch time, they'll be more equipped to handle it. Josh Beckett needs to be healthy and able to pitch in two games if needed. If he's not, he puts his team in a severe disadvantage. It would also help if Jason Bay continues to hit like Manny Ramirez and if David Ortiz would freakin' show up. Granted, they didn't need him, but they might this time. Actually, when you look at it, Youkilis, Ortiz, and Pedroia all had bad series. I don't think the Red Sox can afford that again.
Why the Rays win:
The baseball gods seem to be smiling on them, but honestly, it's the defense and pitching. Not so much the starting pitching, but Miller, Bradford, Balfour, and Howell had ERA's of 0.00. Kazmir, Garza, and Shields will need to step it up. None of them match-up well with Lester at this point.
Offensively, they need Evan Longoria to make a better contribution than just his one game outburst. The Rays can't afford the offense to sputter.
Offense: Red Sox
Defense: Rays (because Lowell is out)
Game 1: Matsuzaka vs. Shields --> Even
Game 2: Lester vs. Kazmir --> Red Sox
Game 3: Beckett vs. Garza --> Even (until Beckett proves he's healthy)
Game 4: Byrd vs. Sonnanstine --> Rays
Game 5: Matsuzaka vs. Shields
Game 6: Lester vs. Kazmir
Game 7: Beckett vs. Garza --> Red Sox
Bullpen: Rays
Closer: Papelbon vs. Balfour/Wheeler --> Red Sox
This series is a series full of surprises. Neither Shields nor Matsuzaka pitched well in their first starts, but they can each shut down the other team. Kazmir is as good as Lester, but he's not showing it and Lester's been dominant. Is Beckett healthy? I'm betting when Game 7 rolls around, he will be, but Game 3 will be a struggle. Byrd and Sonnanstine are an interesting pair, but I don't have a lot of faith in Byrd even though he's had postseason success. My guess is Dice-K and The Shield split 1 and 5, but the difference is Lester winning 2 and 6. Beckett wins Game 7 as the Red Sox head to the World Series ... again. Why don't we hate them like we hate the Yankees?
Red Sox vs. Dodgers in the World Series. The ultimate stage where Manny will be the ring leader, the elephant, and the clown.
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