This is what it's all about.Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored
What a wild ride to get here! It's been a fun playoffs although the NL moved along quickly. But, if you didn't like the Red Sox/Rays series, you just don't like good baseball. As for this series, the Rays come in as the favorites. They won five more games. They did it in the Big Boy League. They did it in baseball's best division. But can they win another best-of-seven series?
Why the Phillies win:
Tampa's power surge is probably a mirage. I don't care how much power you think BJ Upton has, there is no reason he should hit 7 HR in 11 games. The Rays have been hot to get here, but it might just stop here. On the flip side, the Phillies need to continue hitting. Second, Moyer and Blanton have to be solid in their starts. Myers and Hamels can hold their own, but they won't win all 4 of their starts. Three maybe, but not four. Then, their bullpen has to be as light's out as it has been all season. That is their advantage, and they must have it work that way.
Why the Rays win:
The power surge continues. If they don't continue to blast the crap out of it, they won't win. I don't care how well they run the bases/play defense/pitch. The Phillies aren't terrible in any of those categories either, so the Rays must bomb the ball to keep up. Next, Kazmir needs to be Game 5 Kazmir, twice. The Rays have the advantage in the 3 and 4 spots in their rotation and should win at least two of the three possible there. If Kazmir can win at least one battle with Hamels, things become a lot easier. Finally, the bullpen must clamp down. Don't expect the Phillies' bullpen to have a letdown, but we've seen the cracks in the Rays' bullpen. Put some caulk in it.
Offense: Phillies
Defense: Rays
Game 1: Hamels vs. Kazmir --> Rays
Game 2: Shields vs. Myers --> Even
Game 3: Garza vs. Moyer --> Rays
Game 4: Sonnanstine vs. Blanton --> Even
Game 5: Hamels vs. Kazmir
Game 6: Shields vs. Myers
Game 7: Garza vs. Moyer
Bullpen: Phillies
Closers: Lidge vs. Price/Wheeler/Balfour --> Phillies
The starting pitching matchups favor the Rays, but the Phillies hold a distinct advantage in the bullpen. The one thing that might make this series more interesting is a thing I think the Phillies have to do: start Hamels three times. If he does, the Phillies win the series. If he doesn't, it's a toss-up. At this point in the year, you have to hop on your hoss and ride him. This is the Phillies' chance. Otherwise, the Rays have the slight advantage in the series because they're rotation is better and deeper than the Phillies', and their bullpen isn't terrible. Still, the Phillies take it in 6.
By the way, I should be LiveBlogging Game 1 tonight. See you at 8.
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