Who will be his successor? As a Braves fan, please let it be Heilman. Please.Huston Street
He'll be 25 next season, which is extremely young for a closer (K-Rod like almost), and he has two more years of arbitration. After having a 1.72 ERA his first season, he slipped to 3.31 the season after, down to 2.88 last season, and up to 3.73 this past season. Last season, he had an exceptional 11.34 K/9 that fell to 8.87 this season, but that was still better than his two earlier seasons. However, his BB/9 rose from 2.16 to 3.47, which is a bit troubling but can be corrected due to the small number of innings. His HR rate dropped, and his BABIP was .288, both aren't bad. The troubling aspect to him is his GB/FB rate of 0.88, which is nearly the same as previous seasons, but way down from the 1.10 from his rookie campaign. Another bad thing is that his FIP rose almost a point from his past three seasons (all in the mid 2's). Overall, it seems his walks caused the big jump in ERA, but that may not be too big a deal. At least, it doesn't seem his talent has dropped, just a bit of command. While he's not the 1.72 ERA of his first season (his LOB% was 83.3!), he's not as bad as his 3.73 ERA this season. I see him more as a mid 2 ERA as his FIP's indicate. That's better than most and certainly better than what the Mets have.
He'll be 25 next season, which is extremely young for a closer (K-Rod like almost), and he has two more years of arbitration. After having a 1.72 ERA his first season, he slipped to 3.31 the season after, down to 2.88 last season, and up to 3.73 this past season. Last season, he had an exceptional 11.34 K/9 that fell to 8.87 this season, but that was still better than his two earlier seasons. However, his BB/9 rose from 2.16 to 3.47, which is a bit troubling but can be corrected due to the small number of innings. His HR rate dropped, and his BABIP was .288, both aren't bad. The troubling aspect to him is his GB/FB rate of 0.88, which is nearly the same as previous seasons, but way down from the 1.10 from his rookie campaign. Another bad thing is that his FIP rose almost a point from his past three seasons (all in the mid 2's). Overall, it seems his walks caused the big jump in ERA, but that may not be too big a deal. At least, it doesn't seem his talent has dropped, just a bit of command. While he's not the 1.72 ERA of his first season (his LOB% was 83.3!), he's not as bad as his 3.73 ERA this season. I see him more as a mid 2 ERA as his FIP's indicate. That's better than most and certainly better than what the Mets have.
JJ Putz
He'll be 32 next season, and he is also under control for 2 more seasons at $5M and $8.5M. Therefore, he might be a bit more expensive, albeit not by much, but he is 6 years older. Putz also had a dropoff this past season. After an amazing 1.38 ERA last season, he posted a 3.88 ERA this season. What happened? A series of anamolies. Last season, his BABIP was .205 (extremely and unbelievably low), but his BABIP rose to .360 (really freakin' high). His K rate rose a little bit (about .6 to 10.88), but his BB/9 rapidly rose from 1.63 to 5.44. How that happened is beyond me, but that's a lot worse than the 1.3 rise in Street's. His HR/9 stayed the same, but his LOB% of 79.6 might be a bit high but much more realistic than last season's 94%. Holy Cow! An alarming trend, his GB/FB was once a healthy 1.53 two seasons ago, but it plummeted to 1.03 last season and to 0.98 this season. It seems Putz's dropoff had to do with his unrealistic 2007 campaign and his extremely high walk rate. My guess is that if he's healthy, things will return more to normal, maybe his 2.30 ERA of 2006.
So who do you choose? Street is much younger and almost as talented, but Putz has the higher K rate and seemingly more dominant performances. However, Street lost his closer job last season, but that might just mean that the price tag is a little lower. If that's true, Street is probably the better bet. However, if both teams want the same prospects, I'd probably rather have Putz for the next two seasons than Street.
He'll be 32 next season, and he is also under control for 2 more seasons at $5M and $8.5M. Therefore, he might be a bit more expensive, albeit not by much, but he is 6 years older. Putz also had a dropoff this past season. After an amazing 1.38 ERA last season, he posted a 3.88 ERA this season. What happened? A series of anamolies. Last season, his BABIP was .205 (extremely and unbelievably low), but his BABIP rose to .360 (really freakin' high). His K rate rose a little bit (about .6 to 10.88), but his BB/9 rapidly rose from 1.63 to 5.44. How that happened is beyond me, but that's a lot worse than the 1.3 rise in Street's. His HR/9 stayed the same, but his LOB% of 79.6 might be a bit high but much more realistic than last season's 94%. Holy Cow! An alarming trend, his GB/FB was once a healthy 1.53 two seasons ago, but it plummeted to 1.03 last season and to 0.98 this season. It seems Putz's dropoff had to do with his unrealistic 2007 campaign and his extremely high walk rate. My guess is that if he's healthy, things will return more to normal, maybe his 2.30 ERA of 2006.
So who do you choose? Street is much younger and almost as talented, but Putz has the higher K rate and seemingly more dominant performances. However, Street lost his closer job last season, but that might just mean that the price tag is a little lower. If that's true, Street is probably the better bet. However, if both teams want the same prospects, I'd probably rather have Putz for the next two seasons than Street.
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