05 October 2008

NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers



Dodgers (84-78) vs. Phillies (92-70)

Dodgers: 2nd in ERA, 4th in Starter's ERA, 3rd in Bullpen ERA, 24th in Runs Scored
Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored

Who would've predicted this matchup? Oh, I think I did. I realize how narcissistic that sounded, but let me have my moment ... Okay, it's over, and I got lucky. Anyway, the Dodgers swept the Cubs on the strength of their pitching staff and on Manny's shoulders. The Phillies took out the Brewers in four games on the strength of their pitching staff. When looking at the match-ups, the Phillies look like the better team with an edge to the starters going to Los Angeles. Somehow, I think that might be the breaking point.

Why the Dodgers win:
They continue to pitch lights out, and Takshi Saito returns to form. They need him to help them win this series. Broxton pitched in all 3 games in the Cubs series, and asking him to pitch all of them again might be too much. The offense also needs to keep up the good work, and Manny is Manny (*themarksmith shakes his head*). Rafael Furcal really came through and will need to continue, but Kemp and Ethier need to pick it up against the Phillies.

Why the Phillies win:
Hamels continues to pitch the way he did in Game 1 against the Cubs ... twice. They then need Utley and Howard to actually ... you know ... do their jobs and hit. It would also be nice if Brad Lidge came back and pitched more like he did in the regular season. The X-factor? Jimmy Rollins. If he fails, the team goes down.

Offense: Phillies
Defense: Phillies
Game 1: Hamels vs. Lowe --> Even
Game 2: Myers vs. Billingsley --> Dodgers
Game 3: Moyer vs. Kuroda --> Even
Game 4: Kershaw vs. Blanton --> Even
Game 5: Hamels vs. Lowe
Game 6: Myers vs. Billingsley
Game 7: Moyer vs. Kuroda
Bullpen: Phillies (just because I'm not sure about Saito)
Closer: Lidge vs. Saito/Broxton --> Phillies

Tough choice between the two teams. Both looked pretty good dispatching their respective opponents in the previous series. I think Billingsley is just a smidge better than Myers (at least more predictable) and Hamels is just a smidge better than Lowe. The Dodgers win 3 of the 4 games they pitch and take the series in six games.

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