I really want this guy. Too bad that everyone else does, too.Free-agency
CC Sabathia
He's on everyone's wish list, but he's on very few teams' actual list. He'll cost in the neighborhood of 7 years/$155M if I had to guess. The Yankees, Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, and Mets seem to be the Braves' biggest competition for the lefty. With $45M to spend, it seems as though the Braves have the resources to get him (especially noting that Hudson could come off the payroll next season), but with other needs such as another starting pitcher and a power-hitting left-fielder, spending half of that may not be the best idea.
AJ Burnett
This option seems more likely. He'll likely command a 5 year/$60M deal. While he may be worth it at the beginning, he likely won't be by the contract's end. Burnett is coming off a career year, but his health history is anything but clean. Still, he's a legit number two guy that a lot of people will want. Ultimately, he probably isn't worth the risk.
Paul Byrd
I've heard his name thrown around, but Wren said he wanted a 1 and 2 starter. Therefore, Byrd does not make it.
Ryan Dempster
If the Cubs didn't seem so inclined to keep him, he could be the guy the Braves would really pursue, but I see him staying with the Cubs. I'd like to see him in an Atlanta uniform, but then again, it usually isn't a good idea to give big contracts to guys who've really only had one good starting season in the past decade.
Jon Garland
His name has been thrown around, and I imagine he'll be in the second or third wave of pitchers signed. He really didn't do that well in Anaheim this year, and his career ERA is 4.47. He is durable, but I see a Carlos Silve-type mistake by signing him to anything more than 2 year/$12M, which is way below what I imagine he'll get.
Derek Lowe
Everyone is all hot-and-bothered over this guy and for good reason. He really established himself this season. I imagine he'll get 4 years/$60M at least for his services. That may only be the starting point. Still, his stuff makes me think he can continue to be very good the next two years and decent during the last few. He's worth the risk, but again, everyone really wants him.
Brad Penny
He had a terrible season this year, but he's made 30+ starts in 5 of 8 seasons. He's also been pretty good over the past few years, with this year as an exception. I'm guessing everyone will lay off of him for right now, but when the Braves only get one decent starter, they'll probably contact him. I'd give him two or three years if my doctors cleared him.
Oliver Perez
At only age 27, he's got the stuff to be an ace, but he always seems to be held back by something (mainly his walks). He hasn't been talked about very much, but he stands to make a lot of money after the first wave of pitchers is signed. My guess is that he could be a Brave after having dominated them over his career. He'd probably need a 4 year/$50-60M deal. Is he worth it? I guess it depends on what night you're asking. However, there's a legitimate shot he ends up a Brave. His age makes me think there's more upside to getting him than some of the other options.
Ben Sheets
I wrote about him earlier today. I imagine his injury puts a small dent in his payday, but once the first wave goes, someone will pony up big time. If I were the Braves, I might try to sneak in a 3 year/$45M contract to see if he bites while everyone else focuses on Sabathia, Lowe, and Dempster. He's injury-prone, but the talent is undeniable. I wouldn't go beyond four years with him though. I think 2 years with an option is perfect, but he'll likely need at least 3 years with an option.
Randy Wolf
Does anyone else not see what all the fuss is about? He's only 32, but he hasn't pitched more than 30 games (discounting this year) since 2003 and hasn't been any good since 2002. Based on that, people seem to really like this guy but hate on Sheets and Penny. I'm not sure why though. I guess the main reason is that he won't cost as much in years or dollars as the other guys, but he's also not as good as the others. I think I'd rather have Penny.
Trade
Ian Snell (PIT)
His name is floated around a lot, but do you really want to risk it coming off a really bad year? I think you might if you could get a better deal. I think he needs a change of scenery and a better team, but his 5.42 ERA needs to come way down. His K's went down, his BB's went up, but at age 27 (next season), he still has some good time ahead of him. He could be signed through 2012 at a very affordable rate, so people will bite. If the Pirates don't demand the big prospects and want a Jones, Parr type of deal, I would go for it, but I stay away if the big guys are mentioned.
Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)
There haven't been any rumors about this guy, but I think he could end up in some talks as the Orioles continue to rebuild. He's going to be 30 next season, but he's been awesome the past couple of years. My guess is that they'd want a pretty penny for him, but he still has at least three years of arbitration and is therefore affordable. What do they want? I'm not sure how the teams match-up, but I'm thinking Lillibridge and Medlen could peak some interest.
Zach Greinke (KC)
His name has been thrown around a lot, but it will take a boatload to get him. He's not very old at all and very affordable, but those things make the cost of getting him very high. The Braves would have to give up at least one huge prospect for him and several very good ones. The cost here is very prohibitive.
John Lannan (WAS)
He's 24 and I'm not sure if the Nationals are willing to trade within the division. Also, his 3.91 ERA is probably misleading considering his K/BB ratio (117/72). If they didn't want a lot for him, I'd think about it, but I wouldn't give up anything major for him.
Aaron Harang (CIN)
Man, he had a bad season. That makes me think his trade value is low, but I think the Reds will ask for the type of prospects as if 2008 didn't happen. In that case, I don't know that I'd risk it, but he's a nice comeback candidate.
Jake Peavy (SD)
He's clearly the best option of the group, and honestly, I'd give up a lot for a legit Cy Young guy who won't be that expensive. He's been pretty durable over his career (never under 27 starts), and he'd instantly give the rotation a huge facelift. The problem is that I imagine two of Schafer/Heyward/Freeman/Medlen/Hanson would have to go in order to get him, plus others. It would be hard to part with those prospects, but he's signed through 2012. Can you tell me Hanson will be as good during that time period? Man, he's tempting.
Matt Cain (SF)
The Braves don't have the MLB-ready bats to get this done. He'll only move if Howard or Fielder is offered, and the Giants seem pretty reluctant even with that.
So who do you take? It's a hard call. If I were Wren, I'd make one heck of a push for Peavy. It'd be tough to give up that much for a pitcher, but Cy Young guys don't come around very often. Only $8M due next year leaves $37M to really go after a Sabathia and have a great 1-2-3 punch to give this team a real edge. Then, the left over $11M could go to a decent left field bat. Heck, maybe the owners would fork over more money if they knew it could land a Burrell as well.
Okay, back to reality. I don't know if the Braves could get Peavy, but I wouldn't count them out. However, I see more of a (pick two) Snell/Penny/Lowe/Burnett/Sheets/Perez group, which wouldn't be bad. Out of that group, I'd like Sheets and Lowe.
Ian Snell (PIT)
His name is floated around a lot, but do you really want to risk it coming off a really bad year? I think you might if you could get a better deal. I think he needs a change of scenery and a better team, but his 5.42 ERA needs to come way down. His K's went down, his BB's went up, but at age 27 (next season), he still has some good time ahead of him. He could be signed through 2012 at a very affordable rate, so people will bite. If the Pirates don't demand the big prospects and want a Jones, Parr type of deal, I would go for it, but I stay away if the big guys are mentioned.
Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)
There haven't been any rumors about this guy, but I think he could end up in some talks as the Orioles continue to rebuild. He's going to be 30 next season, but he's been awesome the past couple of years. My guess is that they'd want a pretty penny for him, but he still has at least three years of arbitration and is therefore affordable. What do they want? I'm not sure how the teams match-up, but I'm thinking Lillibridge and Medlen could peak some interest.
Zach Greinke (KC)
His name has been thrown around a lot, but it will take a boatload to get him. He's not very old at all and very affordable, but those things make the cost of getting him very high. The Braves would have to give up at least one huge prospect for him and several very good ones. The cost here is very prohibitive.
John Lannan (WAS)
He's 24 and I'm not sure if the Nationals are willing to trade within the division. Also, his 3.91 ERA is probably misleading considering his K/BB ratio (117/72). If they didn't want a lot for him, I'd think about it, but I wouldn't give up anything major for him.
Aaron Harang (CIN)
Man, he had a bad season. That makes me think his trade value is low, but I think the Reds will ask for the type of prospects as if 2008 didn't happen. In that case, I don't know that I'd risk it, but he's a nice comeback candidate.
Jake Peavy (SD)
He's clearly the best option of the group, and honestly, I'd give up a lot for a legit Cy Young guy who won't be that expensive. He's been pretty durable over his career (never under 27 starts), and he'd instantly give the rotation a huge facelift. The problem is that I imagine two of Schafer/Heyward/Freeman/Medlen/Hanson would have to go in order to get him, plus others. It would be hard to part with those prospects, but he's signed through 2012. Can you tell me Hanson will be as good during that time period? Man, he's tempting.
Matt Cain (SF)
The Braves don't have the MLB-ready bats to get this done. He'll only move if Howard or Fielder is offered, and the Giants seem pretty reluctant even with that.
So who do you take? It's a hard call. If I were Wren, I'd make one heck of a push for Peavy. It'd be tough to give up that much for a pitcher, but Cy Young guys don't come around very often. Only $8M due next year leaves $37M to really go after a Sabathia and have a great 1-2-3 punch to give this team a real edge. Then, the left over $11M could go to a decent left field bat. Heck, maybe the owners would fork over more money if they knew it could land a Burrell as well.
Okay, back to reality. I don't know if the Braves could get Peavy, but I wouldn't count them out. However, I see more of a (pick two) Snell/Penny/Lowe/Burnett/Sheets/Perez group, which wouldn't be bad. Out of that group, I'd like Sheets and Lowe.
2 comments:
Just so you know, Greinke is untouchable. However, if the Braves were lucky enough to land him, I can assure that Dayton Moore will be returned to the city of Atlanta.
And it will make Sherman's March to the Sea look like a Sunday stroll.
Deal with your own problems. Zach belongs to us.
Geez Ron. :)
Anyway, are there no circumstances under which you would trade Greinke? Obviously, there would not be a ridiculous trade, but what about a trade built around two or three great prospects? That would fill some remaining holes plus I would expect a big-time pitching prospect would come as well.
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