I still don't think he's as good as they say he is.Jake Peavy
He is the most talked about player right now. This past season Peavy only threw 173.2 IP due to a sore elbow at the beginning of the season, but he responded afterward and finished by throwing 7+ in 9 of his last 14 appearances (3 of those starts were 6 IP and the other 2 were 5 IP). His final stats were 10-11, 2.85 ERA, 173.2 IP, 166 K, and a WHIP of 1.18. That's pretty good. In his 6 full MLB seasons, he has never started less than 27 starts, so he's durable. Some warning signs were that his K/9 dropped from 9.67 to 8.60, his BB/9 rose from 2.74 to 3.06, and his GB/FB went from 1.13 to 1.10. To tell you the truth, none of those scare me. Even if Peavy stayed at a 8.60 K/9, that's still pretty good. After a calm off-season, he should be back to normal come March. As for Petco and its effect, it will have an effect, but in all likelihood, his ERA won't rise .4 points (Even if it did, who wouldn't want a 3.20 ERA pitcher?). He's a legit ace.
Matt Cain
There were brief rumors early in the playoffs about a Fielder for Cain swap, but those seem to have been tabled for now. Cain took a step up in innings pitched by pitching 217.2 innings, which is a healthy workload and what you want from your ace. His season numbers were 8-14, 3.76 ERA, 217.2 IP, 186 K, and a WHIP of 1.36. Looking strictly there, Cain looks worse than Peavy. His K/9 was 7.69 (up from 7.34), BB/9 was 3.76 (up from 3.56), and his GB/FB was .76 (down from 0.89). Again, Peavy, even in an "off" year, was better than Cain. The big advantage is age and salary for Cain. He's three years younger and is just entering arbitration. On the flip side, Peavy is signed for at least four years at $8M, $15M, $16M, and $17M. In contrast, Cain is arbitration-eligible and will probably make around $4-5M next season (Wang made $4M last season) and approach $10M by his third year. Thus, he'll be less expensive. As for prospects, I imagine the cost will make Cain and Peavy about equal even though Peavy is better and signed for longer. I've got to say, if you have the money, I'd spend it on Peavy. Cain's groundball rate scares me, and if he gets away from his West Coast haven, he might give up more HR and become not-so-good. As of now, I would only say Cain is a number 2, albeit a great no. 2, but he's not an ace. Peavy is a legitimate ace.
There were brief rumors early in the playoffs about a Fielder for Cain swap, but those seem to have been tabled for now. Cain took a step up in innings pitched by pitching 217.2 innings, which is a healthy workload and what you want from your ace. His season numbers were 8-14, 3.76 ERA, 217.2 IP, 186 K, and a WHIP of 1.36. Looking strictly there, Cain looks worse than Peavy. His K/9 was 7.69 (up from 7.34), BB/9 was 3.76 (up from 3.56), and his GB/FB was .76 (down from 0.89). Again, Peavy, even in an "off" year, was better than Cain. The big advantage is age and salary for Cain. He's three years younger and is just entering arbitration. On the flip side, Peavy is signed for at least four years at $8M, $15M, $16M, and $17M. In contrast, Cain is arbitration-eligible and will probably make around $4-5M next season (Wang made $4M last season) and approach $10M by his third year. Thus, he'll be less expensive. As for prospects, I imagine the cost will make Cain and Peavy about equal even though Peavy is better and signed for longer. I've got to say, if you have the money, I'd spend it on Peavy. Cain's groundball rate scares me, and if he gets away from his West Coast haven, he might give up more HR and become not-so-good. As of now, I would only say Cain is a number 2, albeit a great no. 2, but he's not an ace. Peavy is a legitimate ace.
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