Javier Vazquez to Be Trade Bait?

He won't be Montreal good, but a change of scenery to an NL park should help considerably.

According to Joe Cowley, trading Javier Vazquez will be the top priority for GM Kenny Williams this off-season. Vazquez was really bashed in the final weeks (by his coach and opposing bats) and has gained a reputation for not being able to pitch under pressure. He followed that up by pitching poorly in the playoffs. So, does anyone want him? Should the Braves go get him?

Well, he'll be 32 next season, which isn't too old, and he is under contract for $11.5M the next two seasons, which isn't terrible. He is extremely durable as he's always made over 26 starts (the 26 starts was in 1999). The big problem is his 4.67 ERA from this season and his relative weakness pitching in the AL, so a move to the NL would be the best option for him. Looking at last season, his K/9 was 8.64 (he's consistently in that range), his BB/9 was 2.64 (a little high for him but really good overall), and his BABIP was .328 (quite high meaning he should come down next year). Further stating he was better than shown is that his FIP was 3.74 (FIP- Fielding Independent Pitching; what his ERA should have been essentially). However, his .92 GB/FB isn't very good, and it doesn't translate well in Chicago.

I think he's a better pitcher than most give him credit for, and a return to the NL will most likely bring his ERA back down. If I were the Braves, I would consider trading for him to fit in that no.2 slot. $11.5M isn't a lot of money, and it's essentially a short-term contract allowing the minor league pitchers to continue developing. I think it would be a good idea for the Braves to put together a deal for him, but I wouldn't give up a major prospect for him.

Rounding the Bases

Updated

Yummy.

Here are some quick hits this morning. I'll have more on this afternoon, but I'm off to an Ale-8-1 factory tour. It's better than it sounds.

- Tim Wakefield's perpetual option will probably be picked up today. For $4M, it's really a no-brainer for a guy who made 18 quality starts last season.

- The Rays are staying positive about their future. While they may be better next season, they won't win as many games.

- AJ Burnett will decide by Monday whether or not he'll opt-out of his contract. I wait on the edge of my seat.

- Phil Rogers has his take on how to shorten the season. I'll use his words, "Many people advanced many ideas during the down time weather delays caused in Philadelphia. We listened. We heard 'em all. We rolled our eyes."

- An up-to-date list of free-agents. The odd thing is that it's from the Detroit Free Press, and the Tigers have no business worrying about free-agents.

- Ray Rotto thinks the World Series was a classic. I do believe he's in the minority on this, but then again, he writes for the A's. To him, that was good baseball.

- Andruw Jones wants to come back and finish his career as a Brave. I thought his career was already over.

- Ken Macha is the new Brewer manager. It wasn't such a tough choice when the other two were Willie Randolph and Bob Brenly.

- Phillies prove doubters wrong. Aren't there always doubters?

- The headline: The Marlins Trade Jacobs for Relief. That can be taken so many ways.

- Richard Justice thinks the Astros have a blueprint for rebuilding the team through the farm system like the Rays and Phillies (how many articles like this has everyone seen?) because trading all your prospects for Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada and Randy Wolf is a good way to rebuild from within.

- Bob Brenly is staying with the Cubs. I think the phrase "forced because no one else wants him" should be somewhere in there.

- Josh Byrnes likes his team. I think most do as well.

Is It Just Me or Should They Be Happy About This?

Still haven't.

Nick Piecoro ponders next season's draft for the Diamondbacks. They have three Type A guys (Orlando Hudson, Adam Dunn, and Juan Cruz) that will all get big multi-year deals, and a Type B in Brandon Lyon. All totaled if they leave, they give the D-Backs nine of the first 62 (potentially) picks in next year's draft. Piecoro goes on to explain how this will cause a rise in costs for the team. But, isn't having nine (nine) of the first 62 picks a good thing? I'd rather spend the $9M (his estimate) on those nine players than $9M on some middle-class free-agent. Next year's draft should significantly upgrade their farm system, so I'm surprised he seems worried. I don't think even $15M spent in the draft would be that bad for essentially nine first and second round picks. Especially when the payroll will really jump in a few years when Webb and Haren's contracts rise and Drew, Upton, and Reynolds receive arbitration, they'll need the prospects to help out because the payroll will be significantly higher (the other side to having such a young team). Again, I'm not really sure why Piecoro is worried. I'd be ecstatic.

Mike Jacobs Trade

I had completely forgotten he was a Met.

The first major trade of the off-season will probably have a minor effect on next season, but it's at least worth mentioning. The Marlins traded Mike Jacobs to the Royals for reliever Leo Nuñez. This trade has been trashed by a lot of people so far looking at it from the Royals perspective, but it really doesn't seem that bad. Jacobs is a useful offensive player that will hit for power. The thing is that the Royals didn't really need a first baseman. They have Kila Ka'aihue, Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahen already battling for the two corner infield spots, and Billy Butler and Ryan Shealy are also n the mix there and at DH. My guess is that Gordon stays at third, Jacobs takes first, and Butler goes to the DH spot. Then, they trade Teahen to the Indians or someone else to fix other holes. Butler could also be moved for pitching or something else while Ka'aihue takes first and moves Jacobs to DH. I'm not sure what this accomplishes, which is why most people are angry about the trade.

The Royals gave up a reliever in Leo Nuñez. His 2.98 ERA last season and 3.92 from the year before make him a valuable reliever but he only threw 48 and 43 innings, respectively, during those two seasons. To make matters worse, his K/9 dropped from 7.63 to 4.84, and his BB/9 rose from 2.06 to 2.74. That's not terribly disturbing considering that's still above-average, but the K rate is a little scary. His BABIP of .280 was about average, but his GB/FB rate was only .91 (although up from .66 from last year). The most telling stat might be his HR/FB rate of 3%. Um, that won't hold up in court. I expect Nuñez's ERA to go back closer to 4 next season, and honestly, you could probably get that from a minor-leaguer you already have.

Overall, this trade really makes no sense. It really isn't bad for either team, but it isn't good either. The Royals now have some added flexibility as for trades and such, but most people aren't looking for first baseman. However, this frees up Mark Teahen a little more, and I'm sure someone will give up a decent amount for him. As for Florida, they probably could have gotten more from a guy ready to enter his prime with a 32 HR season under his belt than a decent 25-year old reliever. I'm guessing the Royals probably needed the pitching more, but I don't think he was essential in any way. Again, I'm a little confused by the trade, but it doesn't necessarily hurt either team. I guess.

Rounding the Bases

What a goofy picture.

I spent an hour the other day going through each team and finding the online newspapers of the respective cities of each team in order to get more news about each team. As a result, I feel that I should live up the name of the site and start giving news from around the league and their links in kind of a Buster Olney style. I'll still do specific pieces of course, but I'll try to do these daily or at least as often as I can. My guess is that today will be longer than most, but without further ado:

- The Yankees are reportedly thinking about Manny Ramirez because they don't have enough old corner outfielders who just hit.

- The Red Sox wanted a new Spring Training location, but they ended up where they started. Lee County will build them a new complex worth $80M, but don't worry. The Red Sox have to pay a $500,000 lease fee each year. So that means they'll pay that off in like 160 years.

- After the Rays lost, someone tried to figure out all the ways they won this season. And I just thought it was the pitching and defense everyone kept talking about.

- Go through the excruciatingly painful Orioles season here. All 162 games. Oh my ...

- Mike Jacobs was traded to Kansas City, which you might have known already, but even though everyone wants to pan the trade from the Royals' perspective, what exactly did Florida get in return? Maybe Ron can help the class. If anything else, just check out the euphoric picture of Jacobs (above). They couldn't have found a better picture?

- The Tigers fired Jeff Jones a month ago from his bullpen coaching duties, so they found their replacement today. Whadayano? It's Jeff Jones. I bet this is either because Jones opted out in the middle of his $55M contract or because no one else wanted to be deemed responsible for the fiasco that is the Tiger bullpen.

- To keep Alan Embree or not to keep Alan Embree. For his 4 ERA, I could think of a couple other ways to spend $3M.

- Torii Hunter feels "squeezed" that the Angels failed to advance, but I think when you lose in Game 4 of the five game series, you probably did a few other things wrong as well.

- Here's the Rangers top 5 pitching prospects because in Arlington, you can't get excited about what you have at the major-league level.

- Just in case you didn't know, the Phillies won the World Series.

- Just in case you didn't know, the Nationals did not win the World Series. (That was kind of a cheap shot wasn't it?)

- Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols won Fielding Bible Awards for their respective positions. I love Molina, but should you really get that award for making 10 errors and only throwing out 34% of base stealers?

- Aramis Ramirez was surprised to win the Hank Aaron Award. Yeah, so was everyone else. What do the bleacher bums say? Throw it back. Throw it back.

- The Pirates sent four pitchers to the minors hoping Paul Maholm can shoulder the load all by himself next season.

- The Reds are contemplating signing Mark Mulder to ensure that he stays hurt as a result of being under Dusty Baker.

- A headline you never want to see for a pitcher: Scherzer Goes Out with a Bang.

- This does not teach kids that gambling is bad.

- Selig values Padres' owner's leadership. Too bad his wife doesn't.

Street vs. Putz

Who will be his successor? As a Braves fan, please let it be Heilman. Please.

Okay, here's the situation. You're the Mets. You need a closer. You need a starting pitcher. You could use a new second baseman. You could use a new corner outfielder. Closer cannot take up all of your remaining budget for 2009. This means that K-Rod could be too expensive. Fuentes is less expensive, but he's probably still too expensive. Luckily, two AL West closers are on the market in JJ Putz and Huston Street. You have some decent prospects, but trading them further depletes a pretty depleted system. However, you're a big market team and to hell with the prospects. Who do you trade for? Putz or Street?

Huston Street

He'll be 25 next season, which is extremely young for a closer (K-Rod like almost), and he has two more years of arbitration. After having a 1.72 ERA his first season, he slipped to 3.31 the season after, down to 2.88 last season, and up to 3.73 this past season. Last season, he had an exceptional 11.34 K/9 that fell to 8.87 this season, but that was still better than his two earlier seasons. However, his BB/9 rose from 2.16 to 3.47, which is a bit troubling but can be corrected due to the small number of innings. His HR rate dropped, and his BABIP was .288, both aren't bad. The troubling aspect to him is his GB/FB rate of 0.88, which is nearly the same as previous seasons, but way down from the 1.10 from his rookie campaign. Another bad thing is that his FIP rose almost a point from his past three seasons (all in the mid 2's). Overall, it seems his walks caused the big jump in ERA, but that may not be too big a deal. At least, it doesn't seem his talent has dropped, just a bit of command. While he's not the 1.72 ERA of his first season (his LOB% was 83.3!), he's not as bad as his 3.73 ERA this season. I see him more as a mid 2 ERA as his FIP's indicate. That's better than most and certainly better than what the Mets have.

JJ Putz

He'll be 32 next season, and he is also under control for 2 more seasons at $5M and $8.5M. Therefore, he might be a bit more expensive, albeit not by much, but he is 6 years older. Putz also had a dropoff this past season. After an amazing 1.38 ERA last season, he posted a 3.88 ERA this season. What happened? A series of anamolies. Last season, his BABIP was .205 (extremely and unbelievably low), but his BABIP rose to .360 (really freakin' high). His K rate rose a little bit (about .6 to 10.88), but his BB/9 rapidly rose from 1.63 to 5.44. How that happened is beyond me, but that's a lot worse than the 1.3 rise in Street's. His HR/9 stayed the same, but his LOB% of 79.6 might be a bit high but much more realistic than last season's 94%. Holy Cow! An alarming trend, his GB/FB was once a healthy 1.53 two seasons ago, but it plummeted to 1.03 last season and to 0.98 this season. It seems Putz's dropoff had to do with his unrealistic 2007 campaign and his extremely high walk rate. My guess is that if he's healthy, things will return more to normal, maybe his 2.30 ERA of 2006.

So who do you choose? Street is much younger and almost as talented, but Putz has the higher K rate and seemingly more dominant performances. However, Street lost his closer job last season, but that might just mean that the price tag is a little lower. If that's true, Street is probably the better bet. However, if both teams want the same prospects, I'd probably rather have Putz for the next two seasons than Street.

No Harm, No Phoul as Phillies Win World Series

They can party like it's 1980.

After bashing Selig all week, all is well in the baseball world as the Phillies held on to win the World Series, besting the Rays 4-1. Fittingly, it ended with a nasty Lidge (Good for him!) slider as the Rays tried to end his streak of perfection. Rain delays or not, it was well worth the wait for the Phillies.

Oh, and Rollins said they would win 100 games this season. Well, not exactly. 102 games.

As for AL dominance, this doesn't change much, but the Phillies outplayed the Rays in this series. Were they the better team? The 162 game season says otherwise, but the seven-game season made its own statement.

When do we start hearing stories about Manuel's mother "helping them win the World Series"?

Now on to obsessing about next year ... The baseball season never sleeps, no matter the disappearance of Baseball Tonight.

Angels Exercise Options on Lackey and Guerrero, not Anderson

Is it bad that I initially thought this was a picture of Guerrero's hot zones even though one really hot one is out of the strike zone?

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (besides the absurdly long name, isn't it weird that the Angels are essentially named "The The Angels Angels") exercised the options for John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero, but they did not exercise Garrett Anderson's. None of this is really news. It was expected. Anderson may be re-signed for a smaller amount of money, but chances are the Angels will initially use that money to entice Mark Teixeira to stay.

The question now is what do they do next with the two people they exercised. John Lackey is the ace of the staff, but he'll be 31 after next season. Plus, the Angels already have a stellar young rotation behind him in Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jered Weaver with Nick Adenhart (who struggled last season but he is only 21) on the way. They won't necessarily need to overspend on an aging pitcher, but will they? As for Vladimir Guerrero, it's hard to believe he's only 32 because he's been around so long. Being 32 usually isn't a bad thing, but did you see how he ran the bases in the ALDS? His knees and body obviously seem to be going, but he did hit .303/.365/.521 with 27 HR and 91 RBI. He peaked for a long time from 1998-2004, but he's been declining ever since. He hasn't declined all that fast, but it's noticable that he has. When will he precipitously fall and will he be Angel when he does it? I guess that all depends on whether or not they sign Teixeira this offseason. Guerrero might be the biggest reason to re-sign Tex, but it won't be to protect Guerrero. It'll be to protect the The Angels Angels.

Prince on the Market

I still don't understand that relationship, but that's not the issue now.

Prince Fielder is now on the market. I still think a Fielder-for-Cain swap is pretty even and that the Giants should do it, but whatever. Other suitors?

Yankees
Aren't they always in the talks? Though I'm not sure they want to give up Hughes for him, I would.

Orioles
What young pitching do they have? Could they entice the Brewers with George Sherrill? Who takes over as Baltimore's closer?

Twins
The Twins have young pitching and could put Fielder where he belongs: DH.

A's
They definitely have young pitching and a need for power. Again, they would probably put him at DH, but Barton isn't immovable.

Angels
They are always in these discussions, but while trying to re-sign Tex or just letting Kendry Morales have at it, I doubt the Angels seriously bite on Fielder. It's not impossible though.

Giants
I definitely see a match here. Cain for Fielder. Or two of the minor leaguers they have for Fielder. Either way, the Giants need him.

Selig's "Decision"

He's made his share of gaffes, but what commissioner hasn't?

Okay, I have already seen the mountain of articles condemning Selig for yet another bad decision, but was it that bad of a decision?

First, was he wrong to not want to end the World Series in a rain-out? I think we all agree that he made the right decision here. I realize he essentially made up a rule, but there's no rule against it either. We didn't have an amendment against a third term as President until FDR actually did it. Then, they made it a rule against it. It's the same thing here. It had never happened before, and therefore, he made a decision. Now that it has happened, they can decide for the future if World Series games can end due to rain. However, I believe we all agree this part of the decision was correct.

Second, when were they supposed to end it? You can give me all the conspiracy theories you want about revenues, the Rays, and whatever else, but I genuinely believe they just wanted to finish the game. They didn't want to delay the game at all. They tried to push through the game to reach some conclusion. They stopped when they did because it had gotten too bad. Before, they had enough Quik-Dry to make things better, but after rain kept coming down, the infield looked like a swimming pool. To keep things in good condition, they would have had to stop time every two batters to put more stuff on the field. No one wanted that either.

Third, why would they tell us before the game about the game not ending because of rain? They seemed to believe that the weather was not going to be that bad. If he came out and said anything beforehand, we would've thought, "Great, I'm glad you told me, but can we please get on with the game." I don't think they thought the weather would really get bad enough. As for if it would have helped the umpires, I doubt it for the reason mentioned above. They wanted to finish the game, but eventually, it just got ridiculous.

Fourth, did anyone care to ask Selig what he would do about this scenario? I mean we can all use hindsight to blame him, but if you want to be all smart and analytical, why didn't you think of it before? Why didn't you ask him? We all expect him to be all-knowing, but he can't be. It's not a knock on him. It's just a truth. As prepared as I believe he tries to be, he can't be prepared for such an instance. In the 100+ years of the World Series, this had never happened. Never! It just happened on his watch. Ten years from now, all we'll see is Phillies win series 4-1 (or whatever it happens to be). Blame him now, but you won't care later.

Fifth, who actually called the delay last night? Not the postponement, the delay. I believe that is the umpires' decision, not Selig's. I doubt the umpire favors the Rays to continue the series. It makes sense that the umpire called for the delay, and then, Selig postponed it thereafter. How would you like it if Selig, who probably knows nothing about working a field, came down and said the field was unplayable? If someone, you know, on the field had said something, this might have been averted. However, they were willing to be obedient soldiers and fight through it. But if you want to blame someone, blame the players, coaches, and umpires for not complaining earlier. Because if they couldn't complain earlier, then they shouldn't have stopped the game earlier. And if they couldn't have stopped the game earlier, then you can't blame Selig for not stopping the game earlier due to his "Rays bias".

Sixth, why wouldn't the Rays have scored that inning anyway? I doubt Rollins would have kept Upton from getting that single. With a dry base path, Upton probably has no trouble stealing second. Carlos Peña then hit a solid single into left in which Burrell's not-so-great arm couldn't throw out Upton who had to seriously tip-toe around third base. I think they would have scored anyway. The weather didn't have much to do with that.

Honestly, I think Selig, and everyone else for that matter who cares about the game, wanted the game to end last night. He and all the other officials, including the umpires, probably all thought, "We need to finish the game. Imagine the chaos that would ensue from ending the game now. Let's just try to finish it." Now, I realize I have based none of this in fact or in personal knowledge of the facts, but as far as I'm concerned, no one else was inside anyone's head either. Give him a break. He made a tough decision.

Derrek Lee for Adrian Gonzalez

Guy on crack.

Uh, HWHAT?!?!?

Derrek Lee vs. Adrian Gonzalez

WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD THE PADRES DO THAT?!?!?

I would want Jeff Samardzija, Rich Hill, Felix Pie, Josh Vitters, and Donald Veal to even start thinking about such a deal.

Luckily, Bill Rogers writes for the Chicago Tribune and completely overvalues Lee and what he brings and apparently doesn't realize Gonzalez is much better, younger, cheaper, and left-handed. The Padres would and should ask for the moon for him, and if I were the Braves, I'd give it to them.

Tigers Thinking Trades

I think they'd rather have some bounce-back years from players like this guy.

The Tigers' brass will meet over the next week to determine who they think could be traded and for whom they would be traded. It's been said they have too much payroll and want to decrease it. Unfortunately, they showed a lot of holes last season and will need to fix them. So who do they trade and where would make sense?

Magglio Ordoñez (35 at beginning of next season)
He's the prize of the group that could be traded. He's an excellent offensive player that's somewhat limited defensively, but he could play every day for a lot of teams. His big drawback is his contract, which calls for him to receive $18M next season, but the two later seasons are options worth $15M each (the first has a buyout of $3M and the last has no buyout). Because of the low buyout numbers, teams can decide if they want to keep him or ditch him. My guess is that he'll still play well and get all of those options, but people have become increasingly paranoid of the mid-30's player (I still think you have to look case-by-case, but they'll get lumped together fairly or unfairly). The contract will be a big burden, so if the Tigers want anything in return, they'll need to eat about $7-10M of his contract for next season. Can they do it? I think so because it still saves them $8-10M. As for teams interested, the Braves (young pitching as long as the Tigers can deal with no Hanson, but there are some interesting bullpen options), the Rangers (who have young catching), the A's (who have young pitching), the Rays (who have young pitching even though they like to hold onto it), the Mets (who have some young pitching), and the Dodgers (who have young pitching) could all have interest and match-up with the Tigers. Matt Joyce and Brent Clevlen could take the job left over.

Armando Galarraga
He was a nice story this season, but does anyone really believe he'll do it again? The Tigers might sell high on Galarraga hoping someone (especially in the NL) will take the trade and give some useful players back. Even better for the Tigers, he's under control for five more seasons. I'm guessing he'd garner a lot of interest. His 3.73 ERA looks good, but he doesn't strike out many hitters (6.35 K/9) and his BABIP was ridiculously low at .247. His GB/FB is a respectable 1.10, but he did give up 28 HR. I'm saying he'll seriously regress next season in the AL, but in the NL, he may not regress so far. Still, the Tigers should get rid of him now while they have the advantage. Again, lots of teams would like him and could fit them in their payroll. The problem is that the Tigers don't really want to give up what they really don't have much of, but they could turn him into a good young pitching prospect and a good young catcher.

Nate Robertson
He had a terrible season to say the least, but FanGraphs seems to think he could have a nice bounce-back season next year. He's owed $7M and $10M over the next two seasons, so the Tigers might have to eat some of that but not much. However, they probably won't get much back for him either way. As for whether or not he'll bounce back, his K/9 was a bad 5.76, his BB/9 was 3.31, but his BABIP was a ridiculously high .343, his LOB% was a low 64.3%, and has a solid GB/FB of 1.21. Could he bounce-back? Sure, but I wouldn't give up much for him, and I'd have to be an NL team. Also, he'll be 31 next season, so he might only be useful for a couple more seasons, and luckily, that's all that's on his contract.

Gary Sheffield
The perenially-disgruntled outfielder can be had for $14M next season. Expecting his 2000 Dodger output might be a bit high, and at age 40, I wouldn't expect a hug bounce-back from his terrible 2008 season. His body is really starting to drag, and he's not a good outfielder anymore. An AL team might take a flier on him to DH, but Sheffield would rather play the field as well as hit. He's just not a really good idea to bring aboard, but I could see the Rays, the A's, and the Rangers in on the action at some point. He had a really, really low .237 BABIP last season and should do better, but I don't know that I could count on 130 games from him.

I honestly don't know who else they would trade from their team to make payroll more flexible or that would bring in a lot of players in return. They could re-sign Renteria and trade him, but they might want to spend the $8M ($11M contract - the $3M buyout) on reconstructing the bullpen and no one would really want him. Bonderman and Verlander are probably off-limits (especially Bonderman after his injury). Guillen, Cabrera, and Granderson are probably too crucial to the team to give up, and I think the Tigers want to keep Inge, although he wasn't very good last season, and probably couldn't get rid of him. They have some good bullpen arms, but they desperately need to keep them. It might be a difficult off-season for the Tigers.

Another Great Moment in Not Believing Everything You Read

Yes, that is a Mississippi Braves hat, and yes, that is Smoltz throwing side-arm. And we thought he could come back last season.

John Smoltz was surprised to learn that he wanted to pitch for another team. His agent told a New York Daily News reporter that he would try to come back mid-season and give someone, but not necessarily the Braves, a spark. Smoltz received a text message about it and sent one back saying he did not know anything about that.

This just goes to show you that you can't believe everything you read. It's also interesting how this came from a newspaper and not a blog. Anyway, with all the rumors and reports that come out about players and their "desires", you really can't believe them. In fact, don't believe anything until it's finalized, and then, wait a few days for a contradicting report. Newspapers, news stations, and the internet are supposed to report the truth, but it appears the day has come (and probably came a long time ago) that "news" agencies are more about finding a good story than corroborating it to see if it's true. I know it's true that his agent said that, but if I really want to know something, I'd rather here it from Smoltz himself. It's like speculating on CC and where he'll go. We can all come up with different scenarios 'til the cows come home, but it doesn't really make much of difference.

Uh-Oh (Rays Edition)

I think he broke out of his slump.

With one more win tonight, the Phillies put the Rays' dream season closer to a bitter end. It's not that this season will be a disappointment for the Rays, but you know they will be disappointed. In a world where the AL dominates, even the Rays shouldn't lose the World Series to an NL team. That would be disgraceful. Actually, it's just a part of baseball, especially seven-game series. Sometimes, the magic just runs out. And with Hamels pitching tomorrow night, the Phillies have the perfect opportunity to win the series in front of the home crowd, something that no one really thought would happen and this quickly. ESPN analysts did have a few people say the Phillies would win, but they all had 6 or 7 games down. The Rays had a few more "strong" feelings as Caple and Neyer had them winning in 4 and 5, respectively. It's not that they were off-base, no one can really predict these things, but no one really expected the Phillies to win in 5. But that's how we sit. We see Hamels coming out to try to win Game 5 and send Philadelphia into euPhoria.

Just a warning though, if Hamels doesn't win tomorrow night, it spells doom for Philly. They got away with a Moyer win the first time, but I wouldn't expect it again. Then again, in a season of improbabilities (doesn't it seem we always say that?), anything can happen (nicely placed cliché). In all seriousness, if Hamels doesn't put this away tomorrow night, I bet the Rays take the last two at home.

Oh, and apparently 70% of you thought the Phillies would win, but how many legitmately thought they would win in 5?

By the way, where have Longoria and Peña gone?

Instant Replay ... the Last Time, I Swear ... Maybe ... I Can't Guarantee Anything

I didn't like the call either Jaime, but I wouldn't fight for replay to have changed it.

So after watching what has been a relatively poorly officiated World Series, how many people want instant replay used in more situations than just home runs? Or has no one watched enough to care? Did anyone care that Moyer didn't get an out when he made such a great play? It did result in a run, actually two if you want to get technical. Did anyone care that Longoria's tag on Rollins didn't result in an out? It did result in a run. I'm just saying. If you want instant replay for home runs because you want the right call made, maybe we should consider doing it for all plays. Now, had Boston, either of the New York teams, or any of the LA teams had this happen to them, would we care? Maybe we wouldn't. But what makes home run calls so much more special than these plays? They resulted in runs scoring that shouldn't have. They could have been prevented. They resulted because umpires were in a bad position to see the call. Cameras would fix that, wouldn't they? Or, are we done fretting about dumb things because we actually have something else to worry about that is more important, like the economy?

Can We Please Stop Talking About Ratings?

How true. Has anyone else noticed that NFL Live is on year round, but Baseball Tonight is already off the air?

Last night's game, predictably, had the worst ratings ever for a World Series game. Can we please stop talking about ratings? They don't measure success. They still had a full house, I presume, for the game. It was still loud with fans up and yelling, right? I'm guessing it is still making a huge profit for Major League Baseball. So why are we worrying about ratings?

You want to know why the World Series doesn't get that big of ratings? First, it is no longer the favorite sport in America. Football has taken that spot. Second, the World Series is possibly seven games long. People think, "Well, if I miss this one, there could still be six more." They don't feel like they have to watch each one. The Super Bowl and NCAA Championships for football and basketball are one game long. That one really does matter. It's for the whole enchilada. The World Series isn't. Game 2 may have zero bearing on the entire series if the Phillies win it. Otherwise, Games 1 and 3 won't matter. If you make the World Series one game (maybe it should be -- another discussion), I bet lots of people will watch it. It would matter. Why do more people watch Games 6 and 7 of these series? Because they might matter. Because it could be the end of the series. Because it might actually tell you who won. If it's Game 4 or 5, no one cares even if it leads to the end of the series because if it is the end of the series, the end was pretty foregone by that point wasn't it? Third, I wonder if TiVo has anything to do with it. Instead of waiting until 2 o'clock in the morning to see the end of the game, I can just TiVo it and watch it in the morning without looking at the paper or internet. I doubt it makes much of a difference, but it might. Regardless, stop worrying about the ratings because it really doesn't matter. When no one shows up in the stands or the fans stop cheering, then I'll worry.

It's Not Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Update: Apparently, Moyer pitched the game while severely ill. It's a good thing he doesn't succeed by throwing hard.

What an inning. What an inning.

After an hour and a half of a rain delay, Game 3 finally got started around 10, but it didn't end until about 1:45. The game was complete insanity in the later innings, and especially the ninth. Moyer pitched well. Garza pitched fairly well until he gave up those back-to-back home runs. Ruiz hit a home run and then made a crucial error. Crawford laid down a bunt, Moyer ran, dove, and flipped the ball for the out, and Crawford was called safe. Navarro followed with a big double, but he later made a crucial error. All in all, a fantastic game that no one watched. I'd feel bad for saying that because it did start really late, but I doubt there would have been many anyway.

As for the series, the Phillies find themselves in a great spot. Tonight's matchup between Sonnanstine and Blanton doesn't particularly give either pitcher the edge. If Blanton wins, Hamels will have the chance to knock out the Rays in five. If Sonnanstine wins, there's still a good chance the Phillies go up 3-2 after Hamels' start. Then again, Garza was supposed to win last night, too. I guess that's why you should watch.

Twins Trying to Extend Gardenhire

I love this man. Angel Hernandez that is.

The Twins are looking to extend Ron Gardenhire. I think Gardenhire is easily the most underappreciated manager in the MLB. Mike Scioscia used to be that way, but I think he has started to get more credit. Joe Maddon has put himself into the limelight this season, especially the postseason by being the weird but successful guy, but people will forget about him by the start of next season. With Gardenhire, everyone always talks about how the Twins won't be that good, but they always are. They always are. They never seem to be a terrible team, and I think Gardenhire has to be a key reason why that is.

Top 5 Under-appreciated Managers
1) Ron Gardenhire
2) Eric Wedge
3) Charlie Manuel
4) Joe Maddon
5) Bob Melvin

I would have out Ned Yost on here, but I guess that isn't really possible considering he isn't a manager anymore. I still don't think anything was really his fault this season. Fredi Gonzalez was another candidate for the list, but I need a little more to work with for him. Jerry Manuel is almost in the same boat as I'd like to see a bit more about him.

Anyway, before I went off on that tangent, I wanted to ask a question. Why is that players get such big contracts and managers don't? Why is it that players opt for free-agency but managers sign extensions all the time? Why is it that managers get fired whereas players still get their salaries even if they are released? I guess the main reason would be the union for players. I don't even know if the coaches have a union. Still, why are coaches so quick to sign extensions? I guess there job security is a bit worse than a player's, but would Pinella or LaRussa really need to worry about their job security? I think if Gardenhire let his contract run out, teams would line up for him. Then again, only bad teams need new managers, and those aren't the places you really want to go to. But, would teams be more careful about managerial contracts if they knew Gardenhire would be on the market? The situation of a manager is a weird one. When you win, it's like you aren't even there, but when you lose, you're usually the scapegoat.

Holliday and Atkins on the Market

It's about to be a $23M a year man. He's not that good, but his agent is Boras.

I think the Braves should trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, and Neftali Feliz for one-year of a Scott Boras client. Oh wait ... I'm still bitter. If we were going to give all that up, we should have gotten Adrian Gonzalez.

Yankees in New Jersey?

Granted, this might be one of the stadiums that actually does pay for itself after 10-20 years.

It could have happened. Yankees president Randy Levine stated that if the Yankees hadn't gotten the tax-free bonds to build the stadium, they would have built the stadium in New Jersey. Of course, the Meadowlands guy denies knowing anything about it, but I'm thinking there might be something illegal about trying to attract the Yankees away from New York. It's at least tacky and would make some enemies. I don't really know much about the whole tax-free bond thing, but it seems a bit weird that the Yankees or any team would hold a city hostage like that. Remember, it's New York and the Bronx that made and make the Yankees, not the other way around. It's not like the Yankees would become the Bismarck Yankees just for a good deal. The franchise would fail. The Yankees had to stay in New York or at least near (like New Jersey) to keep up their high-spending ways. Whatever. It's just another example of teams getting their way, even if they have the money.

Marlins' Trade Bait

Does anyone else watch Chuck?

The Marlins don't appear to be re-inventing the wheel again, but they're willing to move a spoke or two. Scott Olsen, Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, and Jeremy Hermida are probably the ones on the block, but it seems as though Uggla will be staying. Should your team be interested in any of the available guys?

Scott Olsen
He's a risk. He hasn't had an ERA under 4, and while pitched in 201.2 innings, his strikeouts continued to decline. In 2006, he had 180.2 IP and 166 K, but in 2007, he had 176.2 IP and only 133 K. He had 113 K this season. His GB/FB rate has gone from 1.21 to 0.88, and away from pitcher-friendly Marlin Stadium, his ERA will get worse. His BABIP was also a mysteriously low .266 after a mysteriously and ridiculously high .350 last season. So, his 4.20 ERA this season is probably a little low for what he'd actually do. His BB/9 rate did go down significantly from 4.33 to 3.08, though I don't know how that happens. I don't know if I'd do it unless I just needed a fifth starter.

Kevin Gregg
He's a bit of a mystery. His ERA went down, but he blew more saves (was 32/36 in 2007 to 29/38 this season). His GB/FB went from 0.53 to 1.26, and his BABIP went from .272 to .261. His HR/FB went down from 5.9 to 4.4, and he still blew more saves. The only things that make this make sense are that his K/9 went from 9.32 to 7.60 and his BB/9 went from 4.29 to 4.85. His LOB% dropped from 75% to 70% as well. So, do you get him? Well, if I was a team in need of a closer, I might take a shot on him instead of paying Fuentes or Rodriguez a lot of money.

Mike Jacobs
He doesn't walk, he doesn't hit for average, and he strikes out a lot, but he did hit 32 HR. His .247 BA seems low, but so does his .264 BABIP. He's not a .300 guy, but he's not a .240 guy either. He's not a particularly good first baseman, but if he can hit 30 HR, no one really cares all that much. He'd be worth it if you needed a first baseman (Giants?).

Jeremy Hermida
His SLG plummeted almost 100 point to .406, and his BABIP actually was a high .311. He walks a bit more than Jacobs, but he also strikes out more. He also doesn't hit as many HR. Miami is killer to lefty hitters, but he really isn't a great hitter. The plus is that he's only 24. There's still a little potential in there, but I think Jacobs is probably the better bet. If you need a corner outfielder and don't have to give up much, there are probably worse options.

Remember, all these guys are arbitration-eligible, so they aren't expensive. Jacobs and Gregg are probably the only ones I'd really think about trading for, but Hermida wouldn't be terrible option. Olsen is probably a bad idea, especially if you have a small park.

Re-Alignment

I just made up my schedule for next semester, and I'm ticked that I have a Friday class.

I saw this post the other day about re-alignment, and while it wasn't a very good idea from my standpoint, it was at least creative. I'm not sure baseball needs to be re-aligned, but I hate the unbalanced schedule. There's nothing worse than watching nine Nationals-Braves game (they were especially painful this season) in one month. I'd rather see more teams come in. I am a fan of interleague play, even though I know most seem to disagree although the attendance numbers don't show it. Like it or not, it at least brings new teams to town that you don't get to see very often. Anyway, here are some other suggestions for schedule-making.

1) Play all teams an equal number of times. 162/29=5.58. 29x5=145. 162-145=17 extra games. So, you play all teams at least 5 times, and then split up the remaining 17. One idea would be to play those against your divisional foes. Another would be to spread them out to the other teams in your respective league (I prefer the divisional game theory). You play AL rules in AL parks, and NL rules in the NL. This might even out some of the differences between the two leagues as DH's become less important for the AL and more important for the NL, making them equally important for each league. Each team needs a DH-type guy, so the talent should even itself out. The problem is that the DH becomes more common for the NL, and a lot of people don't like the DH (we could just get rid of the DH, but what would happen to Big Papi? or make the DH for everyone, but then why have opposite leagues?). Another one is that teams play more games on opposite coasts. However, you get to play more teams, and the schedules are roughly even.

2) Play teams in your league an even number of times. 162/15=10.8. 15x10=150. 162-150=12 games left for NL teams. 162/13=12.46. 12x13=156. 6 games left for AL teams. The remaining games are spread out to divisional foes. This makes the Anti-Interleague party happy. This again evens out the difficulty of the schedules for the leagues, but not between them like theory 1 does. Again, this means more cross-country trips for teams (oh well), but it also means more variety.

3) Play all NL teams equally and AL teams as well. Okay, this gets interesting. We need 42 games for all the AL teams (14x3), which leaves 120. Divide 120 by 15, and you get 8 exactly for each NL team. In the AL, we need 48 games (16x3), which leaves 114 games. Divide 114 by 13, and you get 8.8 games per team. 8x13 gets us to 104 which means 10 opponents get an extra game in the series, and it leaves us with a negligible 3 game difference in strength of schedule. This way, the AL teams still come, and strength of schedule stays the same across the board. Now, after a season, we really know who the best team is in each league.

I'm not sure if these are really viable, but I just don't like the unbalanced schedule at all. I tried to think of other ones that weren't completely equal, but I'm not sure they actually work. Logistical overload.

Selig Trying to Shorten Playoffs

Or, let's expand the playoffs to like 16 teams.

Selig wants to shorten the postseason next year so that the World Series won't end on November 5th. I like that he's thinking about it, but I'm not sure what two or three days is really going to do. Okay, so now it ends on November 2nd. What's the difference? The playoffs will take awhile because it is three rounds with 19 possible games for each team. If you really want to shorten the postseason, then:

1) Eliminate off-days all together. You play every day during the regular season, so why do you need a day off every two days now. Take a day off in between series, but eliminate the others. Traveling across the country might be a logistical problem to this solution, but both teams have to deal with it. It might be another reason to move the games up to 6 or 7 so everyone can see them.

2) Make the schedule more flexible. If all the teams are done with their series, then move up the next round. This might cause problems for teams and selling tickets, but I seriously doubt that would be affected much. It also makes it more difficult for the TV stations showing the games, but again, I think we are capable of such difficult resolutions. The main problem would be that it might not actually shorten the postseason. If one team goes 7 games, you can't move anything up, and you can't start one league ahead of another.

3) Double-headers! Okay, so there's a lot of problems with that, but it would be fun.

Site Changes

You're not going crazy. The site is changing a little. I have been told it might be a little difficult to read, so I'm trying to make it more reader-friendly. Please let know how the changes work. What works for me may not work for anyone else, so I need your input. Therefore, you might see a few new variations to the site for the next few days.

The Rick Ankiel Effect

To think the Braves almost traded Hudson for him.

After Rick Ankiel's stunning pitcher-turned-outfielder number, Adam Loewen is attempting the same thing. That's not new news, but this is. He was put on waivers and is now a free-agent (he cleared waivers). He's also getting a lot of attention evidently from teams. Let's call this the "Rick Ankiel Effect". Ankiel made the switch and is now making a serious difference for the Cardinals. Teams hope that an athletic Loewen can make a similar switch. The thing is that the situations are almost completely different. Loewen hasn't hit for years. Ankiel had and had done well as a pitcher as a rookie. They knew he could hit. Are you really sure about the same for Loewen. Also, Loewen will be 25 next season, and you can't expect him to hit AAA pitching, can you? It seems he'll have to start back at A ball and work his way up. Granted, he'll be like 27 or 28 by the time he gets back, which puts him around his "prime" when he makes it. I still don't know if I'd really expect him to make so much of a change, especially with his injury history.

Braves Not as Hot on Peavy as Thought

I guess we'll see. I'm a little disappointed, but that doesn't make this a bad decision.

Wren came out and said the Braves won't trade their top prospects, even for Peavy. This is the most definitive thing we have seen in the past few weeks. I don't know whether to be relieved or saddened. Peavy is the chance to seriously upgrade our rotation, but I also really like our prospects, especially Hanson. I still think a trade built around Schafer/Hanson or Hanson/Johnson wouldn't be bad, but it seems as though Wren is sticking to his guns. On the other hand, this might be more posturing. The Padres probably haven't gotten too many great deals for Peavy considering his no-trade clause and apparent unwillingness to go to the AL. The Padres don't have to trade him, but you might imagine they might be antsy to considering their situation. Wren could just be saying, "Take Anderson, Redmond, and Prado or nothing." People will blame Wren, but for once, it seems a Braves front office man is looking to the future. Can't say I blame him. He's restocking, and there is a lot of talent in A ball right now. He keeps these guys for a run in a couple years while hoping he can win some free-agent contests. I guess we'll see.

Making it more difficult for Wren, Schafer and Hanson are going off in Winter Ball.

Cain vs. Peavy

I still don't think he's as good as they say he is.

I was reading Jim Callis' chat today on ESPN, and an interesting question came up about Peavy vs. Cain. If you were to give up a lot of prospects, which would you choose to get.

Jake Peavy

He is the most talked about player right now. This past season Peavy only threw 173.2 IP due to a sore elbow at the beginning of the season, but he responded afterward and finished by throwing 7+ in 9 of his last 14 appearances (3 of those starts were 6 IP and the other 2 were 5 IP). His final stats were 10-11, 2.85 ERA, 173.2 IP, 166 K, and a WHIP of 1.18. That's pretty good. In his 6 full MLB seasons, he has never started less than 27 starts, so he's durable. Some warning signs were that his K/9 dropped from 9.67 to 8.60, his BB/9 rose from 2.74 to 3.06, and his GB/FB went from 1.13 to 1.10. To tell you the truth, none of those scare me. Even if Peavy stayed at a 8.60 K/9, that's still pretty good. After a calm off-season, he should be back to normal come March. As for Petco and its effect, it will have an effect, but in all likelihood, his ERA won't rise .4 points (Even if it did, who wouldn't want a 3.20 ERA pitcher?). He's a legit ace.

Matt Cain

There were brief rumors early in the playoffs about a Fielder for Cain swap, but those seem to have been tabled for now. Cain took a step up in innings pitched by pitching 217.2 innings, which is a healthy workload and what you want from your ace. His season numbers were 8-14, 3.76 ERA, 217.2 IP, 186 K, and a WHIP of 1.36. Looking strictly there, Cain looks worse than Peavy. His K/9 was 7.69 (up from 7.34), BB/9 was 3.76 (up from 3.56), and his GB/FB was .76 (down from 0.89). Again, Peavy, even in an "off" year, was better than Cain. The big advantage is age and salary for Cain. He's three years younger and is just entering arbitration. On the flip side, Peavy is signed for at least four years at $8M, $15M, $16M, and $17M. In contrast, Cain is arbitration-eligible and will probably make around $4-5M next season (Wang made $4M last season) and approach $10M by his third year. Thus, he'll be less expensive. As for prospects, I imagine the cost will make Cain and Peavy about equal even though Peavy is better and signed for longer. I've got to say, if you have the money, I'd spend it on Peavy. Cain's groundball rate scares me, and if he gets away from his West Coast haven, he might give up more HR and become not-so-good. As of now, I would only say Cain is a number 2, albeit a great no. 2, but he's not an ace. Peavy is a legitimate ace.

LiveBlog: Rays vs. Phillies

No Manny and no Red Sox, but there's still plenty of good baseball.

Are you excited? I am!

Tonight pits two talented young lefties in Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir. I think Kazmir gets a slight edge because the Phillies' best two hitters are left-handed (Utley and Howard), but Hamels is pitching better. Everyone knows about Hamels' change-up, but watch the second and third at-bats to see if he needs to throw some curves. His curve is really good, but his change-up is so ridiculously awesome that he rarely needs it. Can the Rays stay back?

As for Kazmir, he'll need to establish the strike zone with all his pitches. His fastball has a lot of sink, but he's missed the zone so far in the playoffs. If he can locate the fastball, especially against Utley and Howard, he can use his good change-up and excellent slider to finish hitters. The Phillies need to be patient and not let Kazmir get into a rhythm.

I'm so glad McCain and Obama get to give that excellent pre-game starter. Does anyone else think McCain is getting more air time? FOX wouldn't be biased would it?

As for the Steal a Base - Steal a Taco thing, I wouldn't steal a Taco Bell taco if they gave it to me.

T1 (PHI 2 - TB 0) --> Phillies score 2
Quick fly-out to open the game for Rollins. They need to make Kazmir work harder. That's better as Jayson Werth walks on six pitches. Utley follows with a bomb after working the count a bit. Kazmir got away with one but not that one. Howard follows up by hitting a titanic shot to ... second, and Burrell quickly strikes out. Good start for the Phillies. Where's the rust?

B1 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
I thought Ben Zobrist said his name was "Bends Over It". Need to get my hearing checked. Oh geez, Iwamura gets on as Hamels doesn't field his position by getting to the bag to take Howard's throw. Terrible way to start, and you just can't give up easy outs. Doesn't matter as Upton hits into 4-6-3 double play. At least, they did that the textbook way. Peña then grounds out, and Hamels is out of there with 11 pitches. Not the way to start if you're the Rays.

T2 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Victorino uses his speed on the infield single up the middle. Did the turf make a difference there? Feliz walks. The Phillies need to keep working the count. Get Kazmir out and get to the bullpen to make things worse for the future starters. Victorino almost got caught off second. Actually, I think they got him as Bartlett's foot blocked his hand. There's the first out as Coste flies out to right. Another walk as Ruiz takes first. Kazmir needs to get it back on track, but the Phillies are playing this perfectly so far. Terrible decision, great play as Upton catches Rollins' shallow fly ball and throws out Victorino trying to tag. I have to question that play. Why run? Kazmir was really against the wall, and that just got him out of the jam.

B2 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Longoria down swinging in three pitches. This looks like another phun night for Hamels victims. Easy fly ball to center from Crawford. Anyone else think he has a weird swing? Hamels then strikes out Aybar. 25 pitches so far. At least the Rays made it a whole 3 pitches more difficult for Hamels. At this pace, he'll easily get through 8.

T3 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Oops swing gets Werth a double. Why did Victorino run again? Utley makes "productive out" by grounding out to second. I still say that it's better than striking out, but you shouldn't "try" to get out. Howard strikes out on a check-swing. Kazmir looks better now. Will it continue? Yep, he strikes out Burrell to end the inning.

B3 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Phillies are leaving a lot on base. Can the Rays take advantage? Nope, Navarro pops out, and they continue to make it easy on Hamels. First hit by none other than Ben Zobrist. Hamels walks Bartlett, and for whatever reason, the bottom of the order gets to Hamels. Let's see how the top does. Iwamura follows with a hit, and now it's bases loaded for Upton. Uh-oh ... Upton ropes it, but Feliz, known for his glove, spears it and turns two. Hamels gets out of the jam.

T4 (PHI 3 - TB 0) --> Phillies score 1
Anyone else psyched for Quantum of Solace? Bloop single for Victorino, but Upton misses it and has Zobrist to back him up. That was weird. Feliz flips it into center-field. Announcer says it was good hitting, but he got lucky. He was way out in front. Now, can they finally make Kaz pay? Runners go, but Coste grounds out to first. Men on second and third with one out. Works like the sacrifice that Coste "tried" to get down. Ruiz does the "small ball thing" by grounding out to short to get the runner home. I'm surprised not to hear praise for Ruiz for moving the runners. Rollins strikes out on three pitches. Three run lead and Hamels pitching. Is it over?

B4 (PHI 3 - TB 1) --> Rays score 1
Hamels gets to the base on the grounder, but it was only Peña running. Don't give him too much credit. Groundball to third gets Longoria. Home Run Crawford! Well, that happened awful quick. Curve is the most dangerous pitch to throw to other lefty? I would think it would be that change considering it comes back towards the hitter. Oh well. Easy fly to center, and Hamels only has 53 pitches so far. Still, he gave up three baserunners last inning and a homer this inning. Is he losing his grip? Nah.

T5 (PHI 3 - TB 1)
Werth rips one into center, but it's caught. I guess it's better to dunk it, huh? Utley only pops it to second ... wait short ... wait second. Stupid shift. Howard walks. Little nubber gets down the line, and Peña can't hold on. Tough play, but one that should be made. Burrell on first, Howard on second. Easy grounder from Victorino. Kazmir is up to 94 pitches. One more inning? You would think with the bottom of the order coming up.

B5 (PHI 3 - TB 2) --> Rays score 1
Navarro strikes out. Zobrist grounds out. Oh, Bartlett walks and makes Hamels work again. Two walks for him. Good boy. Iwamura doubles home Bartlett. Rays are coming back. I guess I missed Bartlett's steal when I went to the bathroom. I wondered why he cake walked it in from second. Wow, I just looked at the poll, and the Phillies have 100% of the votes. Really? Who says Howard can't play defense? He stuck his glove into the stands and came away with the ball for out three. Hamels is not quite as sharp as he has been, but if he can stick it out another inning or two without more than one more run, they should be fine.

T6 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Feliz dunks another one for a hit. Coste pops out. Ruiz flies out to left. Rollins out to center. Kazmir still in.

B6 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Error by Howard. So I was wrong about his defense, but that was a sarcastic comment. Peña is then picked off, but Hamels might have balked. Longoria strikes out. Crawford grounds out. Hamels is back. Probably get one more from him.

T7 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
JP Howell in. Decent outing by Kazmir. At least he got through six. Werth strikes out in an ugly at-bat. Utley rips one up the middle for a hit. So, he gets the righty out but not the lefty. Hmm. Utley takes second. Wild pitch gets Utley to third. Howard strikes out. What a surprise. It has to be noisy as hell in that stadium. Whoa, that was close, but Burrell walks. Maddon comes out and will bring in Balfour to face Victorino. Balfour just blows it past Victorino. Good call Mr. Maddon.

B7 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Philly just keeps leaving people on base. That might come back to bite them. Aybar pops out to Bartlett for out one. Navarro goes down swinging. If the Rays don't score now, they get Madson/Romero and then Lidge. Heck, he might come back for eight. Ground ball back to him for out three. 101 pitches. Do you bring him back out? With the top coming up, I let my bullpen take 'em out.

T8 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Feliz flies out to right. Coste taps it back to the mound when Balfour shatters his bat. I get the feeling he does that a lot. Ruiz lines to right, but Zobrist makes a nice play. Balfour comes up big.

B8 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
9-1-2 up for the Rays. They need to be thinking about doing something here. Lidge hasn't blown one all year, but then again, Peña, Longoria, and, as shown tonight, Crawford can each tie the game in a swing in the ninth. It would just be better to do it now. Madson in. Bartlett out as he pops it into foul territory to Howard. Iwamura fooled on the 3-2 slider and flies out to right. Great slider gets Upton after a good at-bat. Probably should have been over sooner but oh well. Let's get Peña or Longoria to hit a big home run and watch Lidge just sit in the fetal position. "It's not happening. It's not happening ..."

T9 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
After a rough middle of the game, the pitchers have really taken over, but 1-2-3 for Philly and 3-4-5 for Tampa. Let's watch. Balfour's still out there. Wow. Rollins strikes out. He's not had a good day (0-5, 2K). Werth doubles down the right field line, and Balfour subsequently intentionally walks Utley. Miller Time!! Oh, not that. Oh well. Howard strikes out looking. Wheeler now in. Is anyone else less dependable than Howard? Double steal puts them on second and third for Bruntlett. Easy pop out to Iwamura to end the inning. Lidge time. Who's gonna be clutch? This has been a good one so far.

B9 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Peña strikes out on a check-swing strike (he went) and three sliders. Nasty. Another strikeout. That slider is just gross. And a rather uncoordinated catch in foul territory ends it. Game 1 to the Phillies.

Great Game 1. This one pretty much went as expected. I think most thought Hamels would win. The Phillies needed that one, and they got it.

Ken Rosenthal is really short.

Jack Zduriencik is New Mariners GM

There he is.

Congratulations to Jack Zduriencik on getting the job. It's probably something he's wanted for an awfully long time. He's known for his player development skills as he bolstered the Milwaukee system into a powerhouse, but it will take around 5-6 years to see any dramatic improvement created from that department. I only wonder whether or not he will be given that much time. At this point, he has little to no farm system to deal with, and his team isn't very good. The Mariners have resources, so he can spend. However, that's not always a good idea. We really have no idea about his ability to make good trades, but that's always a sketchy measuring stick for a GM. So much luck goes into making a trade work. Sometimes guys underperform, sometimes they get hurt, and sometimes they play better than you expect. No one really knows how it will end up. Regardless, Mr. Zduriencik has quite a challenge ahead of him. His main task will be to rebuild the farm system, but again, that may take 5-6 years. In the mean time, he'll have to figure out how to build next season's team, whether or not to re-sign Felix Hernandez, and how to handle veterans such as Ichiro. What would I do?

First, I trade the veterans with value. Ichiro's gone, and so is Beltre, Putz, Lopez, Betancourt, and Washburn. I would eat some of the contracts considering Seattle does have money they can spend, and this would ultimately save money anyway. Eating money would bring back better players, which is really what Seattle needs more than the money. Ichiro, Beltre, and Putz could bring back at least two good prospects each. Lopez, Betancourt, and Washburn may only bring back one good prospect, but at least with Washburn, you would get rid of the contract. As for Bautista and Silva, you're kinda stuck with 'em. Put Silva in the fifth spot and Bautista back in the bullpen. I would then try to get rid of Johjima and get back whatever I could for him. At least the contract would be gone. With the remaining money, I spend on Teixeira and Furcal as impact guys who will still be good in two or three years when I'm ready to contend. I add Bradley to be the DH and give him 2 or 3 years. Now, the fans still have something to go see even if they aren't Ichiro, but it still lets them know you're not just completely throwing everything in the scrap heap. In the trades, get MLB-ready or tested guys. If that means fewer players, then that's fine, but the goal is still to put a good team out there. Clement is the catcher, Tex is at first, Furcal is at second, and Tuiasopo is at third. The rest can be had through trades. As for the rotation, it depends on what you can get back. I would even consider trading Hernandez, but I need the best three prospects from someone to consider it. I would put Morrow back at the closer spot, but I would use him for more than one inning. One inning would be the norm, but if there's a man on second and one out in the eighth, I'd encourage my manager to bring him in. The goal is to get 100 good innings from him out of the bullpen.

This would be a major overhaul, but that's really what the Mariners need.

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This is what it's all about.

Rays (97-65) vs. Phillies (92-70)

Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored

What a wild ride to get here! It's been a fun playoffs although the NL moved along quickly. But, if you didn't like the Red Sox/Rays series, you just don't like good baseball. As for this series, the Rays come in as the favorites. They won five more games. They did it in the Big Boy League. They did it in baseball's best division. But can they win another best-of-seven series?

Why the Phillies win:
Tampa's power surge is probably a mirage. I don't care how much power you think BJ Upton has, there is no reason he should hit 7 HR in 11 games. The Rays have been hot to get here, but it might just stop here. On the flip side, the Phillies need to continue hitting. Second, Moyer and Blanton have to be solid in their starts. Myers and Hamels can hold their own, but they won't win all 4 of their starts. Three maybe, but not four. Then, their bullpen has to be as light's out as it has been all season. That is their advantage, and they must have it work that way.

Why the Rays win:
The power surge continues. If they don't continue to blast the crap out of it, they won't win. I don't care how well they run the bases/play defense/pitch. The Phillies aren't terrible in any of those categories either, so the Rays must bomb the ball to keep up. Next, Kazmir needs to be Game 5 Kazmir, twice. The Rays have the advantage in the 3 and 4 spots in their rotation and should win at least two of the three possible there. If Kazmir can win at least one battle with Hamels, things become a lot easier. Finally, the bullpen must clamp down. Don't expect the Phillies' bullpen to have a letdown, but we've seen the cracks in the Rays' bullpen. Put some caulk in it.

Offense: Phillies
Defense: Rays
Game 1: Hamels vs. Kazmir --> Rays
Game 2: Shields vs. Myers --> Even
Game 3: Garza vs. Moyer --> Rays
Game 4: Sonnanstine vs. Blanton --> Even
Game 5: Hamels vs. Kazmir
Game 6: Shields vs. Myers
Game 7: Garza vs. Moyer
Bullpen: Phillies
Closers: Lidge vs. Price/Wheeler/Balfour --> Phillies

The starting pitching matchups favor the Rays, but the Phillies hold a distinct advantage in the bullpen. The one thing that might make this series more interesting is a thing I think the Phillies have to do: start Hamels three times. If he does, the Phillies win the series. If he doesn't, it's a toss-up. At this point in the year, you have to hop on your hoss and ride him. This is the Phillies' chance. Otherwise, the Rays have the slight advantage in the series because they're rotation is better and deeper than the Phillies', and their bullpen isn't terrible. Still, the Phillies take it in 6.

By the way, I should be LiveBlogging Game 1 tonight. See you at 8.

I Like It When People Look at One Year of a Deal

Did anyone else think BJ Upton should have won the ALCS MVP?

Joe Christensen is already looking at the Matt Garza-Delmon Young deal as a bust. Is it really? I realize the Rays are now in the World Series and that Garza and Jason Bartlett have been instrumental in their getting there, but how does Christensen know what will happen next? What happens if Young turns into the young power-hitter people expect and Garza gets hurt? There are still about four years left to decide how this deal will really shake-out. It's just like the Santana trade and really all the other trades ever made. People look at the immediate impacts and make judgments as if they will occur every time, or maybe, they just don't even look at the future. Please stop looking at deals in such a narrow view. Please?

School Sucks, I'm Sorry

That actually sounds pretty good right now.

This has been my first real test when it comes to blogging. I started in the middle of May, and wrote throughout the summer. The beginning of school went well, but lately, I've hit the usual midterm rush of stuff to do. Right now, I have a 10-12 page paper due Thursday, so I hope to have it done Wednesday night. As for Tuesday, I wouldn't expect much. I might get on and write a few things around 5 or so and maybe some later. Wednesday, I hope to get back to some writing on here, and Thursday should be back to normalcy around here. I just felt like I should let people know. I'd rather be on here writing about stuff than researching and writing history papers, but such is life. Luckily, there really isn't much going on right now. The World Series is coming up, and I hope to LiveBlog the first game (I'm counting on it). The Peavy situation has my attention, but I'm not sure when that will work itself out. After that, there really isn't too much going on. Again, I hope to get back to writing over the next few days, but unfortunately, school has me by the balls on this one. If I didn't need that diploma and GPA so much, I'd just quit, but that's not going to happen. If I did quit, I still wouldn't be able to write because my mother would kill me.

Martin on Block?

I have to admit that I'm a little perplexed on this one.

A surprising bit of news, Russell Martin may be on the trading block this offseason. He hit .280 with a .385 OBP, but his SLG dipped from .469 to .396. Essentially, he hit less HR, but he walked more than struck out (90 to 83) and stole 18 bases. Not bad for a catcher. I'm not sure his "decline" is a sign of things to come, but I expect he'll bounce back. After winning the Gold Glove last season and throwing out 50% of base stealers, he improved his errors (14 to 11) but only caught about 30% of base stealers. I don't know how much stock I would put in that either as Jason Kendall made dramatic improvements this season in that category. He'll only be 26 next season and in his first year of arbitration, so there would be plenty of teams lined up for him. John Baker would be a potential replacement, but he'll be 28 next season. The Dodgers really don't have a replacement, and there isn't much on the free-agent market. Overall, I'm not sure why the Dodgers would consider trading him. He might bring something back, but that leaves a hole at catcher without any good replacement options. I guess a catcher could come back in the trade, but I'm not sure someone would give up a young catcher for another one, at least one the Dodgers would want. Maybe the motivation would be pitching, but the Dodgers have some good guys coming up. Maybe they want some power-hitting prospects? Would Lars Anderson for Russell Martin work? What would you do with Loney? Martin to LAA for Brandon Wood?

Joba Testing Radar Gun

Oddly enough, they're everyone else's rules as well.

Too bad this time it was the police man's.

Here We Go ...

Did he really hit a home run, or are you just joshing me?

Any better? No, okay. I still need to think on the title.

As for baseball, the Red Sox continue to fight back and have forced a Game 7. I don't really think either has the emotional advantage. People say the Red Sox don't have any pressure because they've had to comeback, and it's just great they forced a Game 7. But, that's a load of crap. They want to win. It would be considered a failure if they didn't win the World Series. As for the Rays, it was an accomplishment for them to get here, but just like the Red Sox, they just want to win. They didn't come all this way to lose in the ALCS. That's not what competition is about. Both teams want to win. Both teams have a lot of pressure on them. I don't think either really has the advantage except that the Red Sox have more experience, but you can take that for what it's worth.

Lester vs. Garza
Garza can be just as lights out as Lester, but Lester just does it with more frequency and consistency. It's hard not to give Lester the edge. He should be rested enough, and the adrenaline might overcome any fatigue. Garza pitched really well his last time out, but can he do it again? I'd have to say there's more of a chance that Lester does. I guess it'll be a red World Series.

Red Sox Looking into Peavy

Retro.

I'm surprised I haven't heard more about this, but because the Red Sox are still in the playoffs, I guess they're more focused on the playoffs. The nerve. All they're doing is slowing down the Peavy process by winning and looking for a World Series. The nerve. Anyway, according to this article, the Red Sox are looking into Jake Peavy after they finish the season, which could be tonight or a week and a half from now. I realize that Peavy has "said" he really only wants to play for an NL team, but you can never, I mean never, take that seriously. I believe everyone has a price, and Peavy might just be trying to get the Yankees or Red Sox to either give him a raise or accept that $22M option to play in such hostile environments.

Regardless, the two teams, Red Sox and Padres, matchup pretty well. The Padres want pitching and middle infield/outfield help. The Red Sox could give up two of Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, or Justin Masterson. Out of those, I would probably try to give the Padres Bowden and Masterson, but I'm guessing the Padres want Buchholz. It doesn't really matter which because the Red Sox have the pitching and the depth, something most do not have. As for position players, this might be the problem. The article mentions Lars Anderson, but the Padres have Adrian Gonzalez (let's talk about him in a minute) right now and Kyle Banks coming up quickly. In the middle infield department, would Argenis Diaz work? He doesn't hit much yet, but he's an excellent defender. What about Josh Reddick? He didn't play much at AA last season (34 games), but that doesn't really mean much, and the Padres did say the want a near MLB-ready outfielder. Reddick may only be able to play center for a bit, but that might be enough. Position players could be the sticking point, but I imagine the Red Sox could add in another pitcher (though not one of the three not included).

As for Adrian Gonzalez, if the Padres are really looking to rebuild, would you trade him? He's very affordable, but they have Kyle Banks almost or already ready. Could you trade Peavy, get the pitching he can bring, and then trade Gonzalez for more pitching and some position players? He'd bring back more than Peavy I would think. He hit .279/.361/.510 with 36 HR and 119 RBI this season, and his contract sees him getting $3M and $4.75M. There's then an option for all of $5.5M, but if he doesn't play well for whatever reason, the option does not have a buy-out. The Padres could rebuild by trading two players. But, would they?