Trading Your Young Guns

Should he stay or should he go? (music not included)

It's a baseball saying that "You have to trade value to get value", and unfortunately for a young player like Yunel Escobar, that can get inside a kid's head. People don't like to hear they are going to get traded, especially when they've been playing well. They don't understand it. They grow up in a particular organization, and then when they've proven themselves in the majors, people start talking about the team needing to trade them away. This obviously doesn't happen when a team is winning. This happens when a team needs to rebuild. I've been making mentions of this in terms of the Giants trading Cain and Lincecum, but recently, Zach Greinke's name has come up from the Royals. So, if you're the GM of a losing team that needs to fill a few holes, do you trade your young stud for prospects (not just any prospects, the really good prospects)?

It's a tough question with consequences no matter which you choose. First, let's talk in terms of the Giants. If they keep Cain and Lincecum, then they have arguably one of the best 1-2 duos in the National League for the next 3-4 years. The problem is that it will probably be all for naught. They don't have an offense, and there really isn't any indication there will be one any time soon. Essentially, you'd be wasting them for the next few years until their mandatory jail time is up and they leave for free-agency, leaving the Giants with two draft picks each that won't help them for four years after that. Therefore, they don't get any decent players for another 8 years. So, do you trade them? That way, you get probably 8 good prospects (probably 2-4 will be really good prospects) to get the winning thing going faster. The problem? This isn't perfect. As I've said before, prospects are just prospects. They haven't proven anything yet. Getting them doesn't mean you get 8 good players. It doesn't even mean that you get 1. It's a risk either way. Looking at the Giants, they have a lot of problems, and they have some good-looking pitchers in the system. Trade Cain and Lincecum, and the Giants get the offense they desperately need.

For the Royals, how close are they to being good? I keep hearing how they're improving until they disappoint again. Is Gordon going to be the All-Star people expect him to be? Teahen? Butler? Now, we know Greinke and Soria would bring in a killing on the market. They could probably get some offense and pitching back. It depends on your outlook. Dayton Moore has said he'll go after the big free-agent again. Will it make a difference? Would they just be better off trading Meche, Guillen, Greinke, and Soria? Not next season, but they could be in a few seasons. I guess if you're a Royals fan, this seems like a broken record you've heard a million times. The problem always seems to be that they're stuck in the middle. They say they're rebuilding, but they spend money on free-agent. You just can't have it both ways. Either you rebuild, or you go for the gusto. Otherwise, you'll stay stuck right where you are.

For the Mariners, they have Felix Hernandez. Again, do you trade him? Is there enough hope next year having him, Morrow, and Bedard in the rotation? As we've seen this season, this team has a lot of holes, much in the same way as the Giants. They could solve a few by trading him off for a king's ransom. Maybe they won't, but again, is it worth letting him rot for no reason while you stay stuck in neutral?

These aren't easy decisions. You don't want to give up your young, affordable guys. You draft them, sign them, and develop them, so when they succeed, you don't want to give them up. Giving them away tells your fans that you have no faith in the team to win next year. The thing is, they probably won't win next season anyway, but for PR's sake, GM's hold on to the players in some vain hope that a miracle occurs leading to their playoff run. Granted, it puts you back a few steps, but it's like when you get your zipper stuck. You can keep shoving the zipper up when it gets snagged, but it won't help. You have to go back down, and then go back up.

Before you say that this causes the best teams to get better, you're only half-right. They do get better, but they only get better for the next few seasons, when you're rebuilding anyway. By the time you've rebuilt and the other bottom-barrel teams do this, the good teams have lost any farm system help. Essentially, you take them out from below. For every prospect you get that turns out well, one guy they get fails to live up to expectations. Then, when they need to bring up someone, they have no one to go to. Don't believe me? Look at the Braves. They were great, and they had a farm system. Then, they stopped getting free-agents and started trading away prospects (some worked out, some did not) ... all the time. Now, when their players have aged, their prospects are gone.

You have two choices. One, trade the players for prospects in an earnest, but full out, effort to rebuild. Two, keep them, and hope that you've gotten the right players to complement them. From what I've seen, it doesn't usually work out that well. Then again, just be the worst team for 6-10 years and then become the Rays. Either way, it's up to you. Actually, either way, you've got a 25% chance of getting into the playoffs. Good luck.