We need this to more common over the next five to ten years.Anyway, back to Francoeur's season. It's been terrible, frustrating, and embarrasing for Braves fans and Francoeur. However, I really wonder how bad it is and if he can't turn it around. Let's take a more in-depth look. First, his average is down to .239, but that's better than the .224 he had August 13th. Looking a bit deeper, his BABIP is .274, which is a bit low (.290 is around normal), so he should go up next season. Yet, it would only be a few points (maybe up to .250). In 2006, his BABIP was .286, and he hit .260. That's more of what I expect. I don't see him hitting .293 (his BABIP was .342), but .260 is not impossible for next season.
Next, if he's going to hit that low, he has to hit more home runs. In 2006, he hit 29, but he's gone down to 19 and 11 the past two years. I really don't think 15 HR is what we can expect. I think 25 is more like it, which would make him somewhat valuable. That would probably bring his RBI totals back towards 90. Also, he's hit 31 2B this season after hitting 40 last season, so he's still hitting some gaps, and a better BA would probably get him closer to that.
As long as Jeff's been in the majors, his plate discipline has always been a topic of conversation. This year, people seem to have really jumped on the bandwagon and bashed him for it. When looking at the stats, it shows quite the opposite. His BB% is actually higher than last year (6.4 to last year's 6.1), and his K% is down from last year (17.8 to last year's 20.1). His Outside of Zone Swing percentage is also down to 35.85 from the 36.70 from last season. To me, that indicates the exact opposite of worse plate discipline, but it's still not good discipline.
Another big thing people have talked about is his double plays hit into. Yet, his 18 this year is only slightly bigger than previous years (16 and 14 respectively). Again, our minds play tricks on us.
So why has Frenchy been so bad? One, mechanics. His mechanics have been off all year. At first, he "stepped in the bucket" (he stepped down towards the third base line instead of at the pitcher) every time. You can't drive the ball and keep everything in sync when you step out like that. You're hips, shoulders, and head pull out, leaving him with little power. This has resulted in his HR/FB% to go from 9.8 to 6.6. More power would get him more home runs instead of fly ball outs. Second, his GB/FB has gone from 1.16 to 1.27, which can be explained by his head movement not allowing him to see the pitch and movement properly to get on top of the ball (well, not really literally -- that would be like asking him to hit groundballs ... anyway). If he doesn't see the spin, he doesn't swing in the right spot, causing a groundball. Then, lacking power from the bad hip movement, he can't slap it through the infield like he did last season, resulting in groundball outs.
After everything, is he going to be a good ball player? Well, yes and no. He's going to be inconsistent. He may give you a great year like the last two or a dud like this one. The other thing to take into account is his age, 24. He'll continue to get better (mentally and physically). He skipped AAA, so he lost some development. Before, he could just shake it off because he had success, but I expect he'll have a renewed energy to his mechanics and approach at the plate this offseason. He could ignore advice before because he was succeeding, but now, he has to change. Overall, I'd keep him. Next year, he should bounce back in a big way, but then again, we were hoping for that this season. I couldn't stand to lose him knowing what he could do. But, we'll find out what he's made of next season. Will he fight and make adjustments, or will he let his first taste of failure ruin him? With a friend like McCann, I expect he'll bounce back.
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