The Past and the Future.Free agency today is considered evil. People have trouble remembering the last big free-agent who actually played well throughout their contract. Injuries and age leading to underperformance seem to be prevalent. Yet, isn't it necessary? There's no way (unless you really want to endure 5-7 losing seasons to keep getting top 5 draft picks) that a team can completely depend on their farm system. You have to be incredibly lucky to get all those players from your farm system. The thing is signing a lot of free agents lead to the Yankees' problem where you have an overinflated budget that doesn't perform up to par. In past years, you could count on one hand the number of Yankees who came up through the system and got chance. This year, it's a bit better as Cashman realizes the value of a farm system. So how do you handle it? First, don't go out and get mediocre players. Chances are that you can bring up a guy from the minors to play just a little worse (negligibly worse). For example, the Braves don't need to go out and sign Kotsay in the offseason when they have perfectly good replacements. Second, stay away from 6-8 year deals as much as possible, but don't always forgo them. Sometimes, when you desperately need something (like the Braves need an ace) and the best guy in baseball at the position is available, you have to splurge to get the best (CC has pitched a lot of innings, but look at Randy Johnson to find proof that guys can indeed endure it). Third, you can't splurge every off-season. You bog yourself down in big contracts, and unless you're the Yankees/Red Sox, you can't get yourself out from underneath. Fourth, take advantage of the Top 15 rule where if you have a top 15 draft pick, teams can't take your pick. The Braves will likely have one of these, so they can sign free-agents without fear. Doing it in other years hurts your farm system and fails to add impact players, like when the Braves signed Glavine. However, if you have a bottom 15 team, maybe signing a free-agent won't solve your problems. Yet, the Braves could solve a few problems by dabbling in the free-agent market this season, and they have the flexibility. They just shouldn't make it a habit. Fifth, do the most thorough physical you can. If they are perfectly healthy, then sign them. If they get injured, it probably doesn't really have much to do with their past, and anyone can get injured. If they're a really good player, then take a chance (If they have an injury history, then obviously give them fewer years). Sixth, go after high-reward players who aren't commanding much. Chances are they aren't commanding much because of injury or attitude, but for injuries, see rule 5. For attitude, most are usually willing to be better in order to prove everyone wrong, even if they weren't. Seventh, STAY AWAY FROM MEDIOCRE PLAYERS. Eight, no-trade clauses aren't the worst thing in the world. If they get injured, no one wants them anyway. If they play well, someone will want them, and you'll probably be playing well as well and won't want to get rid of them. If they're mediocre, then you are stuck in a bad position, but it won't be any worse than having an injury-riddled pitcher that you can't trade anyway.
As for trades, they have several advantages that free-agency doesn't have. One, the contracts are usually more manageable and less inflated. Second, you have more people to choose from. The problem with trading is that you have to give up something to get something. Free-agency only costs money, but trades cost prospects. The better the player coming, the better the prospects going the other way. However, remember, prospects are just that. They don't have experience, and they haven't proven anything. Getting the proven guy is usually the best route. Though, like free-agency, you can't go overboard. I feel this is where the Braves have really messed up. They have been so fervently against the free-agent market that they always trade for their players. They've brought in some good players, but they've also traded away a lot of good ones. They've depleted the deep farm system they once had. Trading is a good way to get good players, but doing it constantly is just as bad as constantly getting fre-agents. They have the same chances of getting hurt. The other bad thing is that they are on someone else's contract. You get them for the length of time someone else signed them, and re-signing them isn't always easy (ie. Drew, Teixeira, etc.). When getting a free-agent, you sign them for how long you will agree to keep them. Granted, the traded player's contract has to be agreeable, but it's much more difficult to find a good contract. The better the contract, again, the better the prospects are going back.
Is it best to just use your own players? In the perfect world, the answer is yes. They are cheaper and younger than any other player you can get either through the free-agent market or trade. Then, you build a loyalty factor to keep them at reduced rates. The problem is this is almost impossible. The Rays and Diamondbacks are nice stories, but remember the pain and suffering they had to go through first. You could tank a few seasons to get high picks, but that means losing seasons. With a disloyal base like Braves fans (who don't show up to games even when the team is winning), this is a bad idea to just lose. At least someone comes out when you win. Like the other two, depending full force in your system is a bad idea. You can have the best scouts in the business, but they aren't going to be right enough to make a full team. Take what you can, and fill in the holes through trade or free-agency. The thing is that the base of your team needs to be through this method. Otherwise, you have given up either too much money or too many prospects, or both. I would draft by talent, not slot. Take the money you save by not getting mediocre free-agents and sign the best player available, regardless of position. Even if you don't need a first baseman, take that first baseman if he's the best available. Obviously, if there are two players of about equal talent, then take the one whose position you need more, but don't forgo something great for someone really good. You never know who's going to turn out well, so take your chances on the better player. If you create a logjam, trade one of them for what you need. It's amazing how everyone needs something that someone else has.
So how does this pertain to this off-season's Braves? Wren has some decisions to make. Either he can rebuild for 2010-2011 or he could try to contend next season. If he wants to contend next season, he needs free-agents. The Braves don't have the impact prospects to give away. He might have to overspend to get his two starters, power left fielder, and lefty reliever, but he has the money. He could feasibly pull it off. He could trade Johnson, Escobar, or someone else to fill another hole in the midst of all that in order to save some money and commitments. If he wanted to rebuild, then forget about the free-agents. Put out a rotation of Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes, and Hanson and let it fly. That's the best way for them to learn. I bet one of Morton/Reyes/Hanson figures it out. Then, put Schafer, Anderson, and Lillibridge in the lineup to give this team a whole new look: speed. You might (might) give up some power, but with this team, power isn't exactly a luxury anyway. Adding speed would help reduce the need for power. In order to do this, trade Johnson, Escobar, Diaz, and even Kotchman to fill in the farm system and holes in the majors (obviously a first baseman would be needed in one of those deals). I would probably also trade Soriano (although it would be selling a little low, but someone would give you something good for him). I'd keep Gonzalez for now, and maybe trade him at the deadline unless I could get an impact arm for him. Spend some of the money on signing drafted players regardless of what they want (trust me, it's still less expensive this way; a couple million is chump change). Save the remaining money for the next few crops of free-agents/drafts/long-term contracts for guys like McCann and Jurrjens. Spending money because you have it isn't always the best choice. I love the Braves, and I would hate to see them lose. But I would also hate to see them lose with my hopes up. I would understand a rebuild, which probably wouldn't need a terribly long one (again, the team could be competitive by 2010 or 2011). I doubt most others would, but it would probably be the wisest decision. The team could contend, but doing so would tie up money (although Hudson's contract would be gone after next season, or not if the team felt he could lead a good, young rotation back into contention). Next season would be fun and exciting to see all the young guys go for it, but it would also be frustrating.
Contention lineup
Anderson/Blanco CF
Escobar SS
Jones 3B
Burrell/Dunn LF
McCann C
Kotchman 1B
Francouer RF
Johnson 2B
Rebuild lineup
Anderson CF
Lillibridge SS or Infante 2B
Jones 3B
McCann C
Traded guy 1B
Francoeur RF
Schafer LF
Prado 2B or Lillibridge SS
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