02 September 2008

The Future of the Braves (Corner Outfielder Edition)

The honeymoon's over. Sorry.


Well, this has been the most publicized problem for the Braves this season. No one has produced here. Diaz has been injured, Blanco isn't a corner outfielder, and Francoeur has been awful (to be nice). So who's in the plans for next season? the years after?

For now, Jeff Francoeur will be a fixture in right field. Trading him now is dumb on multiple levels (disclaimer: if he brings back a great starting pitcher or power-hitter, trading him is okay, but no one in their right mind would make that trade). First, they'd be selling low. Second, he's had two pretty damn good seasons before this one. Maybe this an aberration, and maybe it's not. Trading him now would be getting 20 cents on the dollar, so trading him later wouldn't be losing that much. Stick with him and hope he turns it around next season. As for those of you who say that the NL has finally figured him out, they figured him out a long, long time ago. He's no secret. Not after his torrid start in his rookie season. People have long known about his weaknesses. The problem hasn't been swinging at bad pitches (which he's done a lot). The problem is that he's missed the good ones so often. He's gotten good pitches to hit, but he's done nothing with them. He needs to get back in the cages (maybe with McCann's dad) and figure it out again. Stop stepping in the bucket, take the ball where it's pitched, and try a little discipline (honestly, the discipline isn't worse, but his mechanics have been horrible -- Pendleton or stubborness on Frenchy's part?). Give him next year. If he fails, ship him out, and I'll be the first to admit my mistake, but this guy deserves a second chance. I will state here and now that he'll win Comeback Player of the Year next season.

Matt Diaz has been injured all season, but let's be realistic, he's not the answer. He's a good fourth outfielder. Let him play in Spring Training, get healthy, produce a little, and trade him for a decent bullpen arm. He's a good line drive hitter, but expecting power production (he's never hit more than 12 HR) is a little out of the question (although his SLG was .497 last season). He will be 31 next season, so his prime has all but passed.

The next legitimate corner outfielder may be Brandon Jones, but his mysterious power outage (19 HR --> 8) is a bit scary. However, at 24, he could still have a bright future ahead of him. His .260/.343/.405 line looks fairly good, especially when considering he has 24 2B. With a little more muscle, those turn into home runs. If the Braves can't get a guy through trade or free agency, he could feasibly turn out well, but I wouldn't expect 25 homers.

Next in line would be 22 year old Willie Cabrera who was recently moved up to AA. He won't be an option next season, but he'll start the season in AA. All bets are off after that, but he probably won't be up until 2011. Regardless, he hit .290/.345/.473 in Myrtle Beach, and in an oh my moment, he only struck out 51 times in 116 games. That's impressive. If his discipline improves a touch more, than he could hit more than 16 HR and 32 2B. But again, he's not necessarily going to be able to help very soon, but you never know.

Jason Heyward is next on the list, and he might bypass Cabrera on the way to the show. He was promoted this month to give him some time in High-A before next season, and he has struggled a bit. Yet, it is only 7 games worth of at-bats, so I wouldn't worry too much. I could see the Braves rushing him a bit to get him to Atlanta faster, but I see High-A next season, AA in 2010, and AAA/MLB in 2011. They might push him a bit faster, but I think the start of 2011 would be the fastest.

Cody Johnson is another option, but he has one giant weakness: he's struck out 177 times in 127 games. I didn't stutter. However, he's got 26 HR and 2B on the season, so he's got quite a bit of pop. My guess is they move him up to High A next season, but if he doesn't improve those strikeout totals, he won't move quickly. All in all, he's 19 and has power, so he'll have a spot for the next few years. 2012 might be the earliest he's seen.

The corner outfield spots are pretty scary right now. No one knows if Frenchy can be counted on, and Diaz might be a stretch. The Braves probably need an outsider to come in because I'm not sure Jones is going to be an everyday player that hits 25-30 HR, and especially not next year. However, with guys like Cabrera and Heyward, the future doesn't look quite so bleak, but that future is a couple years away, not next year.

0 reMarks: