It's pretty, but the baseball played inside of it wasn't.According to Tim Dierkes, Jesus Flores and Wil Nieves are under contract for next season, and with a combined salary of about $800,000, it's a pretty good value. Flores' .256/.296/.402 line doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence, but he's only 23. He should continue to improve and join an already talented class of NL catchers. There aren't any reinforcements in AAA, but Javi Herrera and Ivan Devnani are decent catchers in AA. They might be decent backups if Nieves can't do it. All together, this is a "bright" spot for the organization.
Unfortunately, the Nationals are still on the hook for Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young for a solid $10M for next season. If Johnson was healthy, he'd be worth it, but I think that ship has sailed. Larry Broadway is 29 and really isn't much of an internal option, and Bill Rhinehart doesn't look any better in AA. They need to go for a free-agent (Tony Clark?), but that would leave them with an even bigger logjam than they already have. Young and Johnson have little to no trade value.
At second, Ronnie Belliard will probably be the starting second baseman, and his .287/.382/.473 line seems to give him the edge. Emilio Bonifacio, however, is the sleeper and will challenge for playing time, but his .250/.308/.349 line isn't awe-inspiring. He is 23, so he still has some potential. He did steal 7 bases in 48 games, but otherwise, there isn't much. However, he is regarded fairly highly, but I wouldn't expect much next season. There really isn't much down on the farm. Seth Bynum might be the best, but he's 28 and at AA.
Ryan Zimmerman will still man third, and if he stays healthy, he should be just fine. He's a definite bounce-back candidate. Again, not much down on the farm, but they don't need it here.
Christian Guzman will be at shortstop next season, and if you believe in his performance this season, they should be just fine here. However, he's been a bit enigmatic, and he no longer steals bases. He just signed an extension, and for some reason, I see a Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young type mistake there. Ian Desmond may be the best option, but he's only at AA and had a .250 BA. I wouldn't count on him too much, but he did have some pop (12 HR in 93 games).
The outfield has more promise for the Nationals. Lastings Milledge did a pretty good job this year, and at 23, he's just gaining more experience, which should help him improve next season. Elijah Dukes had very good numbers for a half-season's worth of games, and if he can stay healthy, durable, and out of trouble, he could fit in very nicely behind Zimmerman. Kearns and Willy Mo Peña could still man right, but neither have really shown that they can be dependable everyday players. Marvin Lowrance had a nice season, but like some others, he was in AA this past season. I don't see too many fits in free-agency, but if the supposed rumors are true about Manny, Manny would be a huge addition to the team. However, let's be real. The Nationals need a lot more than Manny. It would just be a waste of money.
As for the starting rotation, things could be worse, could be better. John Lannan achored the staff, and he should improve next season. He's still not a legitimate ace, but right now, the Nationals will take a legitimate major-league pitcher. Jason Bergmann and Tim Redding help add some bulk to the rotation, but they're more 4 and 5 instead of 2 and 3. Cole Balester, Tyler Clippard, and Mike O'Connor will fight to fill out the remaining spots in the rotation. Jordan Zimmerman is a sleeper pick for the rotation, but I imagine the 22 year old will start out in AAA and be up at some point next season. If the Nationals really want to turn things around, this is where they need to invest. Crow would have been a nice investment, but due to financials, that didn't happen. They should use their first pick on Strasburg, but the Crow situation indicates they may skip him. There are plenty of solid major-league starters in free-agency, but I don't know if they'll make the big play. I definitely don't see CC, Sheets, Burnett, or Lowe going there, but I could see Odalis Perez re-signing, Mike Hampton, or a Jason Jennings/Bartolo Colon investment. Those would be upgrades, but they likely won't make the difference.
In the bullpen, everything is up for grabs. Saul Rivera, Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, Jesus Colome, and Garrett Mock are most likely going to make the team. Brian Sanchez had an excellent year in AAA with 45 K in 33 IP, and Chris Schroeder and Jim Warden are other options. They could try to bring back Luis Ayala, but no other free-agent guy really makes any sense. They shouldn't try to upgrade too much here through free-agency as it would just be wasting money. No one really expects them to contend, and they'd really have to spend to make that possible. Most likely, they;ll try to piece it together and hope Chad Cordero is healthy enough to close again.
So what'll happen this offseason? I wouldn't expect anything major. I expect they'll be named in a few spots, mainly for Manny and a surprise bid for an ace, but I expect those will be fairly hollow. I also expect they'll try to move a few players (Young, Johnson, Kearns), but I imagine they'll be unsuccessful. Even if they are, they won't get anything back. The smartest thing would be to save money for a run in a year or two when Strasburg is ready to go and Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman are cooking, but they'll be tempted into thinking they can contend next season. They can't.
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