ALDS: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Someone explain to me why this picture came up when I searched for "Rays vs. White Sox".

White Sox (89-74) vs. Rays (97-65)

White Sox: 12th in ERA, 9th in Starter's ERA, 12th in Bullpen ERA, 6th in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored

So ... the Rays are better pitchers, and the White Sox are better hitters. Why can't any of these matchups have a clear winner? The Rays did have the advantage of playing against better competition, but in a five-game series, that really doesn't matter much, does it?

Why the White Sox win:
They just hammer the home runs. They led the majors in home runs, and the Rays weren't exactly stingy in giving up homers (11th most allowed). Then, when they've gotten the lead, they absolutely ride Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, and Bobby Jenks through the rest of the game. They also win when the Rays realize they have never been here before and shrink away from the spotlight. Experience counts, and the White Sox have much more than the Rays. Then again, they're also much older. Could that work against them?

Why the Rays win:
Crawford comes back and plays well, Longoria continues to shock the world (because I bet most people still haven't heard of him), and Peña helps carry the team. They continue to win because Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson/Sonnanstine is better than Vazquez, Buerhle, Floyd, and Danks. Then, Howell, Price, Wheeler and Balfour dominate the late innings. They then get some help from the White Sox being really tired from all the hard work and emotion poured into the last three games, all of which had playoff implications.

Offense: White Sox
Defense: Tampa Bay
Game 1: Kazmir vs. Buerhle --> Rays
Game 2: Shields vs. Floyd --> Rays
Game 3: Garza vs. Danks --> Even
Game 4: Jackson vs. Vazquez --> Even
Game 5: Kazmir vs. Floyd --> Rays
Bullpen: Tampa Bay
Closers: Wheeler vs. Jenks --> White Sox

Of all the series, I feel most confident in declaring the Rays the winners in 3. Of course, that means the White Sox win in four, but I don't see the White Sox winning. The Rays just have a better staff all the way through, and their offense should be able (and has been able) to produce enough to win. It'll be difficult to get past the Angels in the ALCS, but I don't think the White Sox derail the Cinderella story just yet. Rays in 3.

Quick Ruminations

Well not by Johnny, but the blonde hair and glasses are accurate.

Okay, I have this weird thing about nice numbers, and this is the 99th post. Once the White Sox game is over, I'll make the next ALDS post. Therefore, this whole post is due to my vanity/OCD. I wanted exactly 100 posts for this month. I don't know how many months I'll really be able to get to 100 posts. It means having a bit more than 3 posts a day, which doesn't seem like much and I am completely befuddled by Shysterball and how many he posts, but you get tired every once in awhile. Anyway, my meaning was not to make this a rant/apology/death notice.

Rumination One: Would it be better for baseball if players chose teams based on winning instead of money? If they choose by money, the teams with the most money get the best players. If they choose winning, then all the good teams would continually get all the best players. If the best teams (ie. the Rays) don't have enough money and the best teams thereby default to thebig-market team, does anything change?

Rumination Two: Shouldn't we celebrate award-winners instead of debating whether or not they deserve it when they clearly do?

Rumination Three: Isn't "rumination" a much better word than "rambling" or "thought"?

Rumination Four: Does anyone else think Hank's craziness is actually part of the plan in New York? Bear with me here. You get him to say nutty things to make the Yankees organization the "crazy guy you don't want to mess with because he might just do anything". That way, when he makes outrageous claims or demands or wishes, you're not quite sure if he's telling the truth or just baiting everyone else. Then, Hal sits back in the office (because he's obviously the saner/more intelligent one. I mean, who would play along with this completely ridiculous scenario?) and makes most of the decisions, which really means just letting Cashman work for better or worse. Like with Santana, Hank yells out loud how much he wants Santana, and because everyone knows the Yankees had the prospects and the money, they have to take that seriously. Meanwhile, Hal and Brian just laugh and laugh and laugh. Granted, they could have used him this season, but that doesn't mean they made the wrong decision ... yet.

Rumination Five: Are you still reading this? I'm impressed and oddly happy. Thank you. You have no idea how much I appreciate it.

Rumination Six: Who else thinks Billy Beane is just a big tease? I know he's a great talent evaluator and the A's have been good, but name me one team that we really thought was World Series talented. He had a pretty good team that could have had a rotation of Harden, Haren, and Blanton, but he chose otherwise. Now, he sits around and hopes for the prospects to work out. I guess we'll have to wait and see ... again.

Rumination Seven: Just because there's an orthodox way of doing things, does that make them the best way to do them? I love Joe Maddon for his thinking and ability to do what he thinks is best, but then again, when no one expects you to do anything, you can try anything can't you?

ALDS: Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

I've been waiting for one of these.

Red Sox (95-67) vs. Angels (100-62)

Red Sox: 9th in ERA, 8th in Starter's ERA, 11th in Bullpen ERA, 3rd in Runs Scored
Angels: 8th in ERA, 10th in Starter's ERA, 6th in Bullpen ERA, 15th in Runs Scored

In the most anticipated match-up of the playoffs, the Red Sox seem to have a slight edge due to their offense, while the two teams match up pretty evenly pitching-wise. A lot of people will take a look at the records and say the Angels are the favorite, but let's see if they are really correct.

Why the Red Sox win:
Big Papi is back to normal, Pedroia continues his MVP quest, Youkilis shows everyone how good he really is, and Bay proves to be just as good as Manny. Oh yeah, Josh Beckett needs to be healthy as well. The Angels don't have a great offense, and it certainly isn't better than Boston's. However, if Beckett is not healthy, that puts Boston in some bad matchups if Paul Byrd has to walk out to face Santana/Saunders/Weaver, but if he is, then Boston has at least evened things out. Oh, and Papelbon shows why he's better than K-Rod.

Why the Angels win:
Mark Teixeira becomes the man everyone thought he'd be and bashes the team through the playoffs. This offense isn't great, but it should be solid enough to back up a stellar staff. Lackey, Santana, Saunders, and Weaver are better than Lester, Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Byrd/Wakefield, and if they show it, Boston could be headed home early. You also really have to like shut-down bullpens which Arrendondo, Shields, and K-Rod give the Angels, a touch better than Masterson, Okajima, and Papelbon.

Offense: Boston
Defense: Even
Game 1: Lester vs. Lackey --> Even
Game 2: Matsuzaka vs. Santana --> Even
Game 3: Beckett vs. Saunders --> Boston (only if Beckett is healthy)
Game 4: Byrd vs. Weaver --> Angels
Game 5: Lester vs. Lackey --> Even
Bullpen: Angels
Closers: Rodriguez vs. Papelbon --> Even

These are clearly the top 2 teams in the AL (we can argue the Rays should be involved, but I'm not sure ... yet). Pitching will play a big role in this series with some marquee matchups. Lackey --> Weaver is better than Lester --> Byrd. It's a tough call between two evenly matched teams, but I say Angels in four.

Lee and Lidge Win Comeback Player of the Year Awards

Anyone else find this ironic in so many ways?

Any questions?

Cashman to Stay on as GM

I'm not so sure anymore.

Brian Cashman: (n.) see masochist, glutton for punishment, and crusin' for a bruisin'

Offseason Series: Seattle Mariners

Can they go back those days?

Like the Nationals, this season was a disaster for the Seattle Mariners as they ended the season 61-101. After trading key, young players for Erik Bedard, Bedard only pitched in 15 games. Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva had extremely disappointing seasons. Kenji Johjima and Richie Sexson were just terrible. Coming into the season, there was reason for optimism, but it became apparent very soon that this was not to be their season. Will next year be?

Catcher is one of the positions that the Mariners will have to make a decision. Will they go with Johjima, Jeff Clement, or Jamie Burke? After making the bad decision to extend Johjima, it seems as though the Mariners are stuck with him behind the plate. Yet, that allows for Clement to move to first or to simply be the DH, but his line was hardly better than Johjima's. There are no real options in the minors, but they should have enough options as it is now. They just have to decide which one.

First base is a bit of a mystery. Sexson won't be back, but other than that, nothing is certain. Bryan LaHair is the current option, but Johan Limonta and Thomas Hubbard could be other in-house options. The thing is they were in AA, so they may not be ready next season. If the Mariners choose to rebuild, they'll give one of the three the chance, but if they choose to contend, Tony Clark and Jason Giambi make some sense.

Jose Lopez is the second baseman, and that's a fairly good thing for the Mariners. His .297/.322/.443 line was pretty good (although you might like to see more walks), and he's pretty entrenched in that spot. If they chose to trade him for whatever reason (he might actually be able to bring back quite a bit), Tug Huglett or Luis Valbuena could be handed the reins. I don't see it, but it could happen.

Yuniesky Betancourt seems to be the shortstop for better or worse next season. He's terrible defensively, but he offers some value offensively. As for minor leaguers, Kevin Howard could be a viable option, but I wouldn't expect it. Other than that, the cupboard is pretty bear for next season.

Adrian Beltre is another interesting situation for the Mariners. He's solid offensively and a Gold Glover defensively, but he's also the biggest trade bait the Mariners have. There would be plenty of teams lining up for him this offseason if he goes on the block. Matt Tuiasosopo would be the heir-apparent, but he did struggle in his brief time in the majors. If they rebuild, Tuiasosopo will be the guy, but if they decide to contend, Beltre is the guy.

The outfield could be the in flux for next season. Raul Ibañez is probably headed for greener pastures, and I wouldn't expect him back, although he'd be an excellent option should the Mariners try to build a winning team for next season. Ichiro seems hated, and it might be safest to trade him this offseason. He'd bring back a lot, and he would clear some cap space. Then, they could sign Kotsay to play center. Again, I don't see it, but it might not be the worst idea. In right, it seems as though Wladimir Balentien will be the guy, but he did worse than anyone. I'm not sure he's the guy they really want out there. Jeremy Reed, Charlton Jimerson, and Michael Saunders could be other options, but those really seem like worst-case scenario guys. If they choose to go to the market, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Raul Ibañez are definitely within their payroll possibilities and would add the power bat they need.

The starting rotation is one source of promise for this organization. Bedard's shoulder injury doesn't seem to be too serious, but the Mariners may choose to say good-bye (I wouldn't blame them). I still say they should keep him in the off-chance they can contend. Putting him between Felix Hernandez and Brandon Morrow would be the beginning of a pretty good rotation. Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, and Miguel Batista could then duke it out for the final spots. Ryan Feierabend and Travis Chick could be in-house candidates, but Feierabend struggled in his 8 MLB starts and Chick only had 5 AAA starts. As for free-agents, the Mariners could use the Bedard and Ibañez money to charge after a guy like Sheets or Lowe. Other starters such as Ryan Dempster and Jon Garland could also make some sense.

The bullpen also doesn't look too bad next season. JJ Putz will still be there. Sean Green, Roy Corcoran, Cesar Jimenez, and Ryan Rowland-Smith give them a good base. Should they choose to go for it, Arthur Rhodes, Juan Cruz, and Joe Beimel could be options considering those guys have primarily played on the West Coast. Shawn Kelley could be a dark-horse guy, but he only pitched in AA this past season.

So, can the Mariners contend next season? Yes, but whether or not they should try is another story. The rotation and bullpen look solid for next season, but the offense needs major work. They need a 1B, LF, and RF, and to get those, they would have to pay a lot of money for them. They could spring up in the Teixeira conversation, and I wouldn't bat an eye. However, I think it would be a bad investment considering how much the Mariners still need. I think they should start over. Trading Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, and Putz could fill some holes on the team with some impact prospects, but it might guarantee another losing season and some bad attendance numbers. However, those new prospects could team with a strong core of Hernandez and Morrow.

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

It's gonna happen again. Get your hankies ready this time.

Dodgers (84-78) vs. Cubs (97-64)

Dodgers: 2nd in ERA, 4th in Starter's ERA, 3rd in Bullpen ERA, 24th in Runs Scored
Cubs: 5th in ERA, 2nd in Starter's ERA, 16th in Bullpen ERA, 2nd in Runs Scored

The Dodgers seem to have the edge in pitching, but the Cubs have a definite advantage on offense. Chicago will be the heavy favorite, and in their 100th attempt for a World Series victory after their last one, this is their first step.

Why the Cubs win:
Hitting, hitting, hitting. The Cubs mash, simply put. They're 2nd in RS, 5th in BA, 2nd in OBP, and 5th in SLG while the Dodgers are 24th, 14th, 14th, and 24th, respectively. The Cubs are the best offensive team in the playoffs, and if it shows up, they'll be hard to stop. If Harden's healthy, the Cubs have a stronger rotation than the Dodgers with Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden vs. Billingsley, Lowe, and Kuroda. The Cubs also have the most fearsome "Back Three" in the bullpen with Samardzija, Marmol, and Wood, and as long as Samardzija regains his command (6 BB in last 4 2/3 IP), the Cubs will be hard to beat.

Why the Dodgers win:
Billingsley beats Zambrano/Dempster and makes a name for himself while winning two games. Manny Ramirez continues to state his case as to why he's the best hitter in baseball, and Ethier continues to be the best guy no one knows about. Even though the Dodgers lost Kuo for the first round, they still have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and because the Cubs lack left-handed power bats, Kuo's presence may not mean as much, especially considering how well Beimel has done. With scoring possibly at a premium, the Dodgers pitching staff seems more reliable.

Offense: Cubs
Defense: Even
Game 1: Lowe vs. Dempster --> Even
Game 2: Billingsley vs. Zambrano --> Even
Game 3: Kuroda vs. Harden --> Cubs
Game 4: Maddux vs. Lilly --> Even
Game 5: Lowe vs. Dempster --> Dodgers
Bullpen: Dodgers
Closers: Saito vs. Wood --> slight edge to Wood given he's been healthier recently

Billingsley could throw this off a bit by coming back to pitch Game 5. I'm not sure the Cubs really want to bring Zambrano back on short rest, so I think Lilly will get a start. That would give the Dodgers an edge in the Lowe/Lilly matchup that would result for Game 4, and the Dodgers would then have an advantage in the Billingsley/Dempster matchup. Based on my gut feeling (which is really all you can use in predictions), I think the Dodgers use this method and take the Cubs down in 5. Then, the Dodgers go on to beat the Phillies to get to the World Series. It's a stretch, but I'm sticking with it.

Question Mark of the Day

Maybe it isn't all about the money for this guy?

Kyle Lohse just signed a 4-year, $41M contract to stay with the Cardinals. Why is that surprising? First, he was 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 200 IP for the Cardinals this past offseason. Second, his agent is Scott Boras. Somehow, I think he would have commanded a larger salary on the open-market, but I guess Lohse might be the one guy to say no to Boras. Good for him if he did, but he probably passed up about $8M by sticking with the Cardinals. For the Cardinals, this is a pretty good deal. Lohse will be 30 next season, so he's not too old. He'll fit right in with Wainwright and Lowe (did I say that? Who else thinks Dave Duncan will push for this guy?). If Carpenter is somehow healthy (which doctors believe he'll be ready by Spring Training), then that would be a really good rotation.

NLDS: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I think he could take her.

Brewers (90-72) vs. Phillies (92-70)

Brewers: 4th in ERA, 4th in Starter's ERA, 9th in Bullpen ERA, 17th in Runs Scored
Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored

By looking at the above numbers, it doesn't seem as though there's a clear winner. Philadelphia looks to be the better offense and has a better bullpen, but Milwaukee somehow has a better rotation.

Why the Phillies win:
Ben Sheets is unlikely to be able to pitch in the series due to a sore elbow, so that takes away the big 1-2 punch. Now, they're left with Suppan (probably for Game 1), Sabathia for Game 2, and Dave Bush for Game 3. They could also throw in Manny Parra, but not having Sheets really takes the fight out of the Brewers. The bullpen for the Brewers has also been shaky, but it has the talent to keep them alive. Yet, the Phillies have a lights-out bullpen anchored by Brad Lidge. The Phillies also win if they can keep hitting the way they did in September (5th in the majors) and if the Brewers keep hitting the way they were (29th). The Brewers' offense is just too hit and miss, but ...

Why the Brewers win:
If they hit home runs, they can win, and playing in Citizen's Bank Park is a wonderful opportunity for that. Too bad the Phillies hit homers, too. However, the Brewers have the most dominant pitcher in baseball, and if he can pitch two games (2 and 5), that's two wins for the Brewers right there (if he's pitching in Game 5 and they win, then they win the series). Luckily, the Phillies don't really have a great 1-2 punch either as Brett Myers really struggled in September (5.24 ERA).

Offense: Even
Defense: Philadelphia by a smidge.
Game 1 (Projected) Starters: Hamels vs. Suppan (Gallardo?) --> Phillies
Game 2 Starters: Myers vs. Sabathia --> Brewers
Game 3 Starters: Moyer vs. Bush --> Phillies
Game 4 Starters: Blanton vs. Parra --> Even
Game 5 Starters: Hamels vs. Sabathia --> Brewers
Bullpen: Philadelphia
Closers: Lidge vs. Torres --> Adv. Philadelphia

I'm a little iffy on the Brewer's rotation other than that Sabathia will pitch Game 2, but regardless, Philadelphia generally has the upper hand. The big question is whether Hamels will come back on three day's rest to take out the Brewers in Game 4. I think he has to, but I'm not sure the Phillies will push him out there. If the Phillies are up 2-1 (even more so 1-2), Hamels really should start Game 4 to keep Sabathia from pitching again. If this series goes 5, the Brewers win, but somehow, I think the Phillies knock 'em out in 4.

Man Up

Yes you will. Yes you will.

I have to say I'm not really sure that CC Sabathia deserves the Cy Young for pitching one half in the NL, but after manning up for the past week to pitch twice on three-day's rest, he has impressed the heck out of me. You know a guy's a serious competitor when he puts his team on his back and carries them. Granted, with his size, ... I shouldn't say that. That's mean. Anyway, he really stepped up in a big way yesterday to help his team win the Brewers. In all honesty, I'm not sure why I'm gushing so much about the guy, but I'm not sure how many other guys carried their teams as much this season. Albert Pujols? Carlos Quentin? Justin Morneau? Dustin Pedroia? Those are just maybes.

Does Sabathia prove that four-man rotations are possible, or is he just the exception? Can he really handle all the workload, or will he break down next season? Interesting questions started by a man refusing to let his new team down. Well done CC.

Offseason Series: Washington Nationals

It's pretty, but the baseball played inside of it wasn't.

What can you say about the team that finished last? The Washington Nationals were a league worst 59-102. At least, they get to select Stephen Strasburg first overall. That is if they are willing to spend the money they were unwilling to spend this season on Aaron Crow. Nothing went right for the Nationals. They were 24th in baseball in ERA at 4.65, and they were 28th in runs scored with 641. Ryan Zimmerman spent two months on the DL, Nick Johnson only played 38 games, Austin Kearns disappointed ... again, Paul Lo Duca wasn't any good, and Chad Cordero only pitched in 6 games. The few bright spots were Christian Guzman and John Lannan. As of today, they are probably just relieved to be done. On to next year ...

According to Tim Dierkes, Jesus Flores and Wil Nieves are under contract for next season, and with a combined salary of about $800,000, it's a pretty good value. Flores' .256/.296/.402 line doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence, but he's only 23. He should continue to improve and join an already talented class of NL catchers. There aren't any reinforcements in AAA, but Javi Herrera and Ivan Devnani are decent catchers in AA. They might be decent backups if Nieves can't do it. All together, this is a "bright" spot for the organization.

Unfortunately, the Nationals are still on the hook for Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young for a solid $10M for next season. If Johnson was healthy, he'd be worth it, but I think that ship has sailed. Larry Broadway is 29 and really isn't much of an internal option, and Bill Rhinehart doesn't look any better in AA. They need to go for a free-agent (Tony Clark?), but that would leave them with an even bigger logjam than they already have. Young and Johnson have little to no trade value.

At second, Ronnie Belliard will probably be the starting second baseman, and his .287/.382/.473 line seems to give him the edge. Emilio Bonifacio, however, is the sleeper and will challenge for playing time, but his .250/.308/.349 line isn't awe-inspiring. He is 23, so he still has some potential. He did steal 7 bases in 48 games, but otherwise, there isn't much. However, he is regarded fairly highly, but I wouldn't expect much next season. There really isn't much down on the farm. Seth Bynum might be the best, but he's 28 and at AA.

Ryan Zimmerman will still man third, and if he stays healthy, he should be just fine. He's a definite bounce-back candidate. Again, not much down on the farm, but they don't need it here.

Christian Guzman will be at shortstop next season, and if you believe in his performance this season, they should be just fine here. However, he's been a bit enigmatic, and he no longer steals bases. He just signed an extension, and for some reason, I see a Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young type mistake there. Ian Desmond may be the best option, but he's only at AA and had a .250 BA. I wouldn't count on him too much, but he did have some pop (12 HR in 93 games).

The outfield has more promise for the Nationals. Lastings Milledge did a pretty good job this year, and at 23, he's just gaining more experience, which should help him improve next season. Elijah Dukes had very good numbers for a half-season's worth of games, and if he can stay healthy, durable, and out of trouble, he could fit in very nicely behind Zimmerman. Kearns and Willy Mo Peña could still man right, but neither have really shown that they can be dependable everyday players. Marvin Lowrance had a nice season, but like some others, he was in AA this past season. I don't see too many fits in free-agency, but if the supposed rumors are true about Manny, Manny would be a huge addition to the team. However, let's be real. The Nationals need a lot more than Manny. It would just be a waste of money.

As for the starting rotation, things could be worse, could be better. John Lannan achored the staff, and he should improve next season. He's still not a legitimate ace, but right now, the Nationals will take a legitimate major-league pitcher. Jason Bergmann and Tim Redding help add some bulk to the rotation, but they're more 4 and 5 instead of 2 and 3. Cole Balester, Tyler Clippard, and Mike O'Connor will fight to fill out the remaining spots in the rotation. Jordan Zimmerman is a sleeper pick for the rotation, but I imagine the 22 year old will start out in AAA and be up at some point next season. If the Nationals really want to turn things around, this is where they need to invest. Crow would have been a nice investment, but due to financials, that didn't happen. They should use their first pick on Strasburg, but the Crow situation indicates they may skip him. There are plenty of solid major-league starters in free-agency, but I don't know if they'll make the big play. I definitely don't see CC, Sheets, Burnett, or Lowe going there, but I could see Odalis Perez re-signing, Mike Hampton, or a Jason Jennings/Bartolo Colon investment. Those would be upgrades, but they likely won't make the difference.

In the bullpen, everything is up for grabs. Saul Rivera, Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, Jesus Colome, and Garrett Mock are most likely going to make the team. Brian Sanchez had an excellent year in AAA with 45 K in 33 IP, and Chris Schroeder and Jim Warden are other options. They could try to bring back Luis Ayala, but no other free-agent guy really makes any sense. They shouldn't try to upgrade too much here through free-agency as it would just be wasting money. No one really expects them to contend, and they'd really have to spend to make that possible. Most likely, they;ll try to piece it together and hope Chad Cordero is healthy enough to close again.

So what'll happen this offseason? I wouldn't expect anything major. I expect they'll be named in a few spots, mainly for Manny and a surprise bid for an ace, but I expect those will be fairly hollow. I also expect they'll try to move a few players (Young, Johnson, Kearns), but I imagine they'll be unsuccessful. Even if they are, they won't get anything back. The smartest thing would be to save money for a run in a year or two when Strasburg is ready to go and Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman are cooking, but they'll be tempted into thinking they can contend next season. They can't.

Fitting End for the Mets

Mets fans are saying, "Oh God, not again". Yes, again.

After the Mets lost to the Marlins 4-2, the Mets have been eliminated from the playoff picture. Therefore, the Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, and Phillies will represent the NL. As for the AL, the Rays, Red Sox, and Angels are assured of playoff spots. The Twins are winning, and the White Sox have won. If the Twins win, they'll be up half a game, and then, the White Sox have to win their postponed game tomorrow to tie. The tie-breaker would be Tuesday.

Anyway, back to the Mets. As in most games, the Mets were ahead and in control heading into the last bit. Like the last bit of games with their bullpen, they lost the playoff race at the very end. Today, their bullpen lost them the game, although they didn't blow the save. It just seems fitting that they would lose the season-defining moment in such a way.

Lee to Miss Start Due to Stiff Neck

At least Lee didn't give too many "throwback" performances this year.

That's okay. Everyone else's neck hurts from shaking their heads in disbelief. Last year's Lee and this year's are the same person, right?

Garciaparra to Manage Today

Remember the good ole' days?

Joe Torre is going to allow Nomar Garciaparra to manage the team today. Evidently, Torre did this while he was in New York. Here's Garciaparra's lineup:

Juan Pierre LF (Gotta love the speed man, and he never strikes out)
Angel Berroa SS (He's the Rookie of the Year)
Jeff Kent 2B (Who else has this pop from a second baseman?)
Andruw Jones CF (He's the man. Great defender and has power)
Mike Piazza C (Best offensive catcher ever)
Mark Sweeney 1B (James Loney isn't that good)
Delwyn Young RF (He's one of the brightest prospects in the game)
Nomar Garciaparra 3B (I'll be humble and hit eighth)

The problem, apparently, is that Torre forgot to tell Garciaparra it's not 2003 anymore. At least this way, the Dodgers are resting their starters. You can't expect that much from a guy who spends most of his time in the training room and the disabled list.

Urgent! Please Read

Ms. Ng, it's the Seattle Mariners.

I have decided that I hate baseball, and therefore, I will no longer write on here.

...

I hope no one believed me. Sorry about not writing on here yesterday, but I decided to be social. I got to hang out with some friends and go to the UK football game (GO CATS!). They won 41-3 over WKU, but when I realized we play Alabama next weekend, I realized we'll probably lose by the same score. Anyway, I just didn't have any time yesterday, but I'll be back to writing today.

Also of note, tomorrow will begin my "Offseason Series". This is how it will shake down. I'll give a brief review of the team's season, but I won't spend more than a paragraph on it. Next, I'll look at the team and its farm system position-by-position according to who might be able to make the major-league team (it won't be as specific or thorough as I did for the Braves because I'll only examine players who might be on the team next year). While I'm doing all that, I might make some suggestions as to what they should do (trade, sign, etc.), but toward the end, I'll make more of a summary of what changes they should make and what they need. As for when your team will appear on here, I'll do one each day in reverse order of records (right now, Washington will be first, Seattle second, San Diego third, and so on). It should be fun, and I hope you come back every day to see them and then tell me how dumb my ideas are.

Chipper to First?

I have this picture at home. Isn't it beautiful?

I've been thinking about this for awhile, but I've neglected to write about it. After his shoulder injury, this may be the offseason the Braves finally move Chipper to first base. People have talked about it in previous seasons, but with his foot problem a few years ago, we all assumed it would be a bad idea. But would it? First, his problems have gone away. The new shoes and moving back to the infield have helped tremendously, and he has enough athleticism to make the transition. Second, while first base seems weak in the organization, there's something the Braves could do about that. His name is Casey Kotchman. I realize he can't play third, but let's think for a moment. The Mariners need a first baseman, and they may want to get rid of Adrian Beltre. The Rangers could keep Chris Davis at third and put Kotchman on first, and then, the Braves could get Blalock (I realize his health history, but he might be worth a shot). Joe Crede could be an option, but again, his health history doesn't help. When the Orioles lose on Teixeira, Kotchman could play first, and the Braves could get Mora. Casey Blake is another option on the free-agent market, and Kotchman can be traded for something else. Third, Chipper would do anything for the organization, and though he didn't like moving the first time, he might do this if an impact guy came in return. However, there is one catch: his groin. He's had some groin issues the last few seasons, and one stretch could tweak it. I'm not really sure that it would, but with his groin, anything could happen. Anyway, first seems less labor-intensive, and I think the Braves should think more about it, especially if the injury is serious. If Chipper doesn't want to do it, then I completely understand it, and he's earned the right to say no. Still, it might be the best option for all involved.

All-No One Knows Team

Excuse me, why do we need to know this stuff?

Well, as the season winds down, stats are essentially in, standings are being confirmed, and October baseball or vacation is being planned. One thing that always gets me is how some people have these great seasons and no one knows about them. In order to correct that, I'm going to go through and point out some of those great seasons. I hope you'll join me.

C --> Chris Ianetta (COL)
.269/.396/.517, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 22 2B, 49 R

A year removed from losing his job to Yorvit Torrealba by hitting .218, Ianetta has re-taken the job with a great season (101 games) at the plate.

Honorable Mention: Bengie Molina (SF)- Does he ever get enough credit?

1B --> Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
.281/.362/.513, 36 HR, 118 RBI, 31 2B, 102 R

Playing in Petco Park, Gonzalez has put up huge numbers, and still, very few people know who he is. He wasn't even in the top 8 of All-Star voting! How?!

Honorable Mention: Joey Votto (CIN)- He'll be well known by the time his career's over.

2B --> Brandon Phillips (CIN)
.261/.312/.442, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 24 2B, 7 3B, 23 SB, 80 R

I thought about Mark DeRosa here because no one really gives him the credit, but Phillips wasn't in the top 8 of All-Star voting whereas DeRosa was no. 2. Phillips' season wasn't as good as last, but he keeps plugging away as one of the top second basemen in baseball.

Honorable Mention: Alexei Ramirez (CWS)- He could take a walk every now and then.

3B --> Jorge Cantu (FLA)
.277/.328/.484, 29 HR, 94 RBI, 40 2B, 92 R

Lost after bringing in 117 in 2004, Cantu is still only 26 and made a huge comeback this season. Too bad he plays in Florida.

Honorable Mention: Mark Reynolds (ARI)- Congratulations on setting the strikeout record!

SS --> Stephen Drew (ARI)
.290/.330/.501, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 44 2B, 11 3B, 90 R

Like Reynolds, he's lost in Arizona. Still, Drew is one of the best young shortstops in the game, and he's starting to live up to his billing.

Honorable Mention: Mike Aviles (KC)- Are you happy now Ron?

OF --> Jayson Werth (PHI)
.270/.362/.493, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 16 2B, 19 SB, 69 R

He's the reason why Pat Burrell won't be in Philly next season. He's done a great job in right, and I expect he'll move to left next season.

OF --> Nick Markakis (BAL)
.303/.404/.490, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 48 2B, 106 R

Lost in Huff's shadow ... Right. Markakis is one of those young guys you don't hear about because he's lost in the whole East Coast Bias thing. Oh, wait. That's supposed to work the other way around. Oh well.

OF --> Andre Ethier (LAD)
.303/.371/.507, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 36 2B, 90 R

Manny-mania has taken over in LA, but Ethier has killed it in September (.455/.543/.697). He's another big reason for LA's division win.

Honorable Mentions: Nate McLouth (PIT), Ryan Ludwick (STL), Corey Hart (MIL)- Few know who these guys are either, but they did better in the All-Star voting.

SP --> Ricky Nolasco (FLA)
15-7, 3.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 205.1 IP, 176 K, 41 BB

People really like Josh Johnson (not that I'm complaining), but why are they forgetting Nolasco?

SP --> Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)
10-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 186.2 IP, 119 K, 57 BB

Another Oriole? Man, these guys have better players than I thought they did. Still won't matter.

Honorable Mentions: Armando Galarraga (DET), Todd Wellemeyer (STL), Paul Maholm (PIT)- No one would want this staff on name along, but it would end up being one hell of one.

RP --> Scott Downs (TOR)
24 HLD, 5 SV, 1.78 ERA, 70. 2 IP, 57 K, 27 BB

Kentucky boy! And, he's been one hell of a pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he might be a dark horse candidate for the rotation next season.

RP --> Taylor Buchholz (COL)
21 HLD, 1 SV, 2.17 ERA, 66.1 IP, 56 K, 18 BB

Not that Buchholz, Taylor has been great out of the Colorado 'pen, but Fuentes gets most of the publicity.

Honorable Mentions: Jim Johnson (BAL), Jesse Carlsson (TOR), Jesse Arendondo (LAA)- I could name a few more, but let's stop here.

CP --> Joakim Soria (KC)
41/44 SVO, 1.63 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 66.1 IP, 66 K, 17 BB

People may be starting to get to know him, but I guarantee few know how absolutely dominating this guy is.

Honorable Mention: Matt Capps (PIT)- His ERA is a little north of 3, so he loses out to Soria.

Aubrey Huff

Pretty good swing, since 2002.

Lost in another bad season, the Orioles have still had a few good players, and number one on that list has to Aubrey Huff. As of now, his line is .306/.352/.556 with 31 HR, 108 RBI, 96 R, and 48 2B this season. I really thought he should have made the All-Star team, but Ortiz and Bradley made it instead. People forget about this guy, but he's actually had a pretty solid career, not Hall worthy but definitely better than most. At age 31, he's reached his prime, so you can look for him to probably start to decline. However, he mainly DH's, so he shouldn't wear down too soon. I look for him to do pretty well over the next two seasons before he drastically declines. Still, he won't be as successful next year.

Penny for Your Pitcher?

I love the look of the umpire's face. Granted, I would have pissed in my pants by now.

Brad Penny's option looks as though it won't be exercised for next season. The Dodgers placed him on the 60-day DL in order to activate Rafael Furcal, and when asked about his option, Penny replied that GM Ned Coletti had not talked about it with him, indicating it wouldn't be picked up. Now, will it? For $9 million, Penny would be worth the gamble I would think. However, if they just go ahead and unload Pierre and Andruw (anywhere), they could have enough money to go for Sabathia, meaning Penny won't be needed. Side bar, they should just get rid of Jones and Pierre, even if they don't get much back. Back to Penny, he has been fairly injury prone, but before this year, he had three straight years of 30+ starts. In my humble opinion, letting Penny go would be a bad idea. You don't get $9 million ace-potential pitchers anymore. If they let him go, I hope the Braves, and I know other teams, will take a chance and sign him. He'll only be 31 next season. Anyone else think he'll be motivated next year?

Feds Have "Proof"

What happened to the snarky comments over Bonds and Pettite's heads?

Apparently, the Feds have proof that Bonds used steroids. Personally, didn't we all know he did? How many of us really doubted that he used? At this point, the whole trial is really just a sham. I don't like Barry Bonds (because he's not a nice person) and despise players that cheat. However, isn't this whole thing too much? If he lied, then I guess he could be sent to prison on perjury charges, but what about Rafael Palmeiro? We have explicit evidence against him but no trial date. Why? I think the government could use the money for this stupid trial that won't solve or change anything and "bailout" companies or whatever crappy concoction they can come up with.

Marte's Calf Injury Ends His Season

No, you have to hit it where they ain't in order to run the bases.

Just in case no one has a clue about whom I am talking, Andy Marte used to be the best prospect in the Atlanta organization. He was so good in fact that the Braves traded him straight up for Edgar Renteria. Marte was later traded to Cleveland where he's spent the last few months trying to play third base. His career line is .211/.265/.315 during his stints in Atlanta and Cleveland, so he's never really panned out. Once Casey Blake was traded, the third base position was all but his for the last two months. Needless to say, that didn't pan out. Somehow, I see him traded/released over the offseason or in Spring Training, and he still has some potential considering he's only 24. I guess you can just chalk him up as another AAAA player. For now, he has a calf injury that ended his season.

Oh Where Have You Gone Josh Hamilton?

When was the last time you saw this guy on Sportscenter?

After hitting a scorching .310/.367/.552 with 21 HR and 95 RBI in the first half, Josh Hamilton only has 31 HR and 124 RBI as of right now. That means he only has 10 HR and 29 RBI in the second half. His line is .291/.375/.491 in the second half, so he really hasn't dropped that much in the second half. So why has he stopped producing runs? You can thank Ian Kinsler and Michael Young for getting hurt for that. Their injuries probably cost Josh Hamilton the MVP Award. Not that it's their fault, but if he even has just 60 RBI in the second half, he would have 155 RBI for the season. He would probably be the front-runner in an otherwise lackluster MVP class. Regardless, after a love fest in the first half for Hamilton, he's been a non-entity in the second.

So much for the Triple Crown talk, huh?

Hank Back at It Again

Sorry for running you over. Life's not fair.

After the Yankees have been assured of going home for October, Hank Steinbrenner is already complaining about the playoff system. My favorite:

"The biggest problem is the divisional setup in major league baseball. I didn't like it in the 1970s, and I hate it now," Steinbrenner wrote. "Baseball went to a multidivision setup to create more races, rivalries and excitement. But it isn't fair. You see it this season, with plenty of people in the media pointing out that Joe Torre and the Dodgers are going to the playoffs while we're not. "This is by no means a knock on Torre - let me make that clear-but look at the division they're in. If L.A. were in the AL East, it wouldn't be in the playoff discussion. The AL East is never weak."

Life just isn't fair for the Yankees is it? Not to mention that it's not fair they pay $100 million more than just about every one for their team, but it isn't fair for the Yankees. By the way, divisional play started in 1969. Just sayin'.

David Price's Role

This is a little different from Spring Training.

After going 5 1/3 solid innings the other night, there have been discussions as to what the Rays should do with him come crunch time. He's up to 121 IP for the season, so he'll probably have like 125 by the end, which means he should only pitch like 155 next season. If you start him in the playoffs, he could get up to 140 IP, which would allow like 170 next season. He did pitch 133.1 IP last season at Vanderbilt, so 140 wouldn't be too much. However, when you have the rotation that the Rays do, I wouldn't mess with it. I would turn Price into a two-inning reliever, which is easy to do in the AL considering they don't have to worry about pinch-hitting. In the first time through the order, he has a staggering .095 BAA. If you pitch him two innings, they won't get to the second-time through the order. As for the righty matchup, they're only .205 against him (I realize this is only through 11 IP, but it's what I have to work with), so he seems like he'll be able to get them out. They also don't have much of a scouting report on him yet. Let Kazmir and Shields and Garza do some heavy lifting, and then bring in Price after Jackson/Sonnanstine have gone 5 solid. Then, hand it over to Price for 6 and 7, and then the rest can get the last six outs. Or, let them go 6, and Price can get through 7 and 8 with 9 left to Wheeler or whoever else. Heck, if they really like him, let him pitch 8 and 9, but I think he'd be used too often in that scenario. Yet, K-Rod and Wainwright did kinda the same thing, although Price would have a little bigger of a workload. In other words, don't turn him into a lefty-specialist. He can get both sides out, and to keep him stretched-out, let him pitch two innings at a time. Don't start him because I'm not sure he could really get through more than 6. Jackson and Sonnanstine can do that, and then, Price can shut the other team down after that.

Webb vs. Lincecum

Don't get caught in a Webb of lies about this year's NL Cy Young contenders.

Like I did the other day with Halladay and Lee, I'm going to give you an unbiased view of the NL Cy Young race. It's basically between Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb (let's just assume Dempster doesn't get it if Lincecum doesn't). So, let's look at the stats.

Tim Lincecum - Brandon Webb

Wins: 17 - 22 (Webb 1-0)
Losses: 4 - 7 (1-1)
ERA: 2.46 - 3.24 (Lincecum 2-1)
Games: 32 - 33 (2-2)
Games Started: 31 - 33 (Webb 3-2)
Complete Games: 2 - 3 (Webb 4-2)
Shut-outs: 1 - 1 (Webb 4-2)
Innings Pitched: 215.2 - 219.2 (Webb 5-2)
Hits: 172 - 200 (Webb 5-3)
Runs: 65 - 91 (Webb 5-4)
Earned Runs: 59 - 79 (5-5)
Home Runs: 10 -13 (Lincecum 6-5)
HBP: 6 - 10 (Lincecum 7-5)
Walks: 77 - 63 (Lincecum 7-6)
Strikeouts: 243 - 176 (Lincecum 8-6)
Wild Pitches: 16 - 8 (Lincecum 8-7)
Stolen Bases: 19 - 24 (Lincecum 9-7)
Caught Stealing: 2 - 9 (Lincecum 9-8)
Pickoffs: 0 - 1 (9-9)
WHIP: 1.15 - 1.20 (Lincecum 10-9)
SLG: .312 - .333 (Lincecum 11-9)
OBP: .294 - .301 (Lincecum 12-9)
BAA: .220 - .243 (Lincecum 13-9)
K/BB: 3.16 - 2.79 (Lincecum 14-9)
BB/9: 3.21 - 2.58 (Lincecum 14-10)
K/9: 10.14 - 7.21 (Lincecum 15-10)
H/9: 7.18 - 8.19 (Lincecum 16-10)
WPA: 5.06 - 3.73 (Lincecum 17-10)
BABIP: .306 - .297 (Lincecum 17-11)
GB/FB: 1.23 - 2.97 (Lincecum 17-12)
DP: 23 - 25 (Lincecum 17-13)
Quality Starts: 25 - 24 (Lincecum 18-13)
Doubles: 36 - 31 (Lincecum 18-14)
Triples: 3 -2 (Lincecum 18-15)
VORP: 72.1 - 40.0 (Lincecum 19-15)

Well, Lincecum won a bit more convincingly than Lee did, but as you can see, the battle between Lincecum and Webb is a bit closer than I think most realize.

NL Rookie of the Year

He's smiling because he's probably bringing home some hardware.

Considering Evan Longoria has all-but-cemented his spot as the AL Rookie of the Year (sorry Armando Galarraga fans), let's take a last look at the NL side of things (I'll probably make comments about the awards after they've been publicized, but honestly, can we all agree that whoever they pick deserves the award? It's not the player's fault they were chosen, and all the debates really do is hurt their feelings. Wow, how sentimental of me. Now, back to the statistics). I've narrowed the candidates down to three.

Geovany Soto (CHC) -> .286/.364/.505, 23 HR, 35 2B, 86 RBI, 66 R
The negative: 121 K

Joey Votto (CIN) -> .288/.361/.486, 22 HR, 30 2B, 79 RBI, 59 R
The negative: Soto did better in fewer at-bats.

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) -> 13-10, 3.68 ERA, 188.1 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 139 K, 70 BB
The negative: August (5.73 ERA) and September (4.30).

So who wins? Between Soto and Votto, Soto has to win considering his stats are better than Votto's in fewer AB's. Votto's been great, but Soto's just been a smidge better (I do mean a smidge). Plus, he plays a more important position on a World Series-caliber team. As for Jurrjens vs. Soto, the debate is tougher. Comparing pitchers and hitters is like comparing apples and oranges. How do you really compare them? First (and maybe the best) is to look at how their teams have played. The Cubs are a winning team, whereas the Braves aren't so much. However, I don't like the "winning team" argument for other awards, so even though it might be the best way to compare across positions, it really isn't all that helpful. Second, how do they compare overall with veteran players. Soto is one of the top 3 offensive catchers (10%) in baseball, and I would even say possibly a top 50 (6.67% considering 25 x 30 = 750 players) position player (especially given his position). Jurrjens is probably a top 30 pitcher (20% considering 5 x 30 = 150 pitchers). The edge seems to go to Soto, but that may not be very helpful because you really have to combine them to choose the award. However, considering those things already seem to favor Soto and he's had a lot more press, I think Soto's a shoe-in as well.

Who's in Center?

Save the money and prospects and give this guy a shot. If not, I'm sure Austin Jackson could be a good player.

The Yankees are trying to figure out who's going to play center next season because obviously Melky Cabrera can't do it. He's never been great, but he didn't take a big step forward this season. Actually, he took a step back. What makes him different from Jeff, who I talked about earlier? Frenchy has had quite a bit of success before this season. Otherwise, it would be perfectly reasonable to assume Cabrera could be a decent outfielder for someone.

Anyway, they talked about Nate McLouth (bad idea for the Pirates to trade him), David DeJesus (he's not spectacular and would cost more money and prospects), and Matt Kemp (who may not play center for too much longer). Honestly, they should probably just stick with Brett Gardner. I realize his .190/.250/.255 line isn't great, but he's been very good over the past week. Plus, he's a very good defensive outfielder (did you see that catch?). He also has quite a bit of speed that would give them a leadoff hitter for the first time since well ... a while.

Jeff Francoeur

We need this to more common over the next five to ten years.

As I've wondered about this off-season and next season, Jeff Francoeur is obviously one of the biggest question marks for the Braves. Recently, there have been reports of a Royals trade that would send Francoeur to Kansas City for pitching. I keep hearing Brian Bannister's name bandied about, but I'm not sure why the hell the Braves would want him (see: 5.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 109 K). I don't think the Royals would trade Greinke for Frenchy, but I wonder about Meche. The added money could help them get Furcal, and the Braves have money to spend. However, I've heard Meche is not for sale. Would they trade Hovechar for Frenchy? I'm not sure I really believe in Hovechar, but it might be a fair trade.

Anyway, back to Francoeur's season. It's been terrible, frustrating, and embarrasing for Braves fans and Francoeur. However, I really wonder how bad it is and if he can't turn it around. Let's take a more in-depth look. First, his average is down to .239, but that's better than the .224 he had August 13th. Looking a bit deeper, his BABIP is .274, which is a bit low (.290 is around normal), so he should go up next season. Yet, it would only be a few points (maybe up to .250). In 2006, his BABIP was .286, and he hit .260. That's more of what I expect. I don't see him hitting .293 (his BABIP was .342), but .260 is not impossible for next season.

Next, if he's going to hit that low, he has to hit more home runs. In 2006, he hit 29, but he's gone down to 19 and 11 the past two years. I really don't think 15 HR is what we can expect. I think 25 is more like it, which would make him somewhat valuable. That would probably bring his RBI totals back towards 90. Also, he's hit 31 2B this season after hitting 40 last season, so he's still hitting some gaps, and a better BA would probably get him closer to that.

As long as Jeff's been in the majors, his plate discipline has always been a topic of conversation. This year, people seem to have really jumped on the bandwagon and bashed him for it. When looking at the stats, it shows quite the opposite. His BB% is actually higher than last year (6.4 to last year's 6.1), and his K% is down from last year (17.8 to last year's 20.1). His Outside of Zone Swing percentage is also down to 35.85 from the 36.70 from last season. To me, that indicates the exact opposite of worse plate discipline, but it's still not good discipline.

Another big thing people have talked about is his double plays hit into. Yet, his 18 this year is only slightly bigger than previous years (16 and 14 respectively). Again, our minds play tricks on us.

So why has Frenchy been so bad? One, mechanics. His mechanics have been off all year. At first, he "stepped in the bucket" (he stepped down towards the third base line instead of at the pitcher) every time. You can't drive the ball and keep everything in sync when you step out like that. You're hips, shoulders, and head pull out, leaving him with little power. This has resulted in his HR/FB% to go from 9.8 to 6.6. More power would get him more home runs instead of fly ball outs. Second, his GB/FB has gone from 1.16 to 1.27, which can be explained by his head movement not allowing him to see the pitch and movement properly to get on top of the ball (well, not really literally -- that would be like asking him to hit groundballs ... anyway). If he doesn't see the spin, he doesn't swing in the right spot, causing a groundball. Then, lacking power from the bad hip movement, he can't slap it through the infield like he did last season, resulting in groundball outs.

After everything, is he going to be a good ball player? Well, yes and no. He's going to be inconsistent. He may give you a great year like the last two or a dud like this one. The other thing to take into account is his age, 24. He'll continue to get better (mentally and physically). He skipped AAA, so he lost some development. Before, he could just shake it off because he had success, but I expect he'll have a renewed energy to his mechanics and approach at the plate this offseason. He could ignore advice before because he was succeeding, but now, he has to change. Overall, I'd keep him. Next year, he should bounce back in a big way, but then again, we were hoping for that this season. I couldn't stand to lose him knowing what he could do. But, we'll find out what he's made of next season. Will he fight and make adjustments, or will he let his first taste of failure ruin him? With a friend like McCann, I expect he'll bounce back.

Alvarez Agrees on Contract ... Again ... Finally

Somehow, I think no one is going to remember this in five years.

At least it's over now ... maybe. Pedro Alvarez signed a new contract with the Pirates that should end his holdout and grievance. However, there a few fishy things about this. First, this is essentially a deal signed after the deadline, just like the other one except this one is egregiously after the deadline. Why does this one count? Second, why did the Pirates give in? They gave him the major-league contract. If they really did have the upper hand, shouldn't they have just stuck to their guns? Or, are they trying to get him signed so that he can Winter Ball? That would help determine just how good he is, and therefore, he could move quickly through the system. However, they and everyone else already figured he would move quickly, so maybe, they would have to wait an extra few months. Still, I think they could have started him in AA if they really wanted to. Third, how much did Scott Boras play in the final negotiations? Did Alvarez go over his head to get it done, or was the major-league contract what Boras really wanted? I'm not sure, but I think he probably wanted the bigger bonus instead. Maybe not. Oh well, I guess he can just get back to playing baseball, which he would have essentially been able to do for the past month and a half.

Willis for Lugo?

His mugshot from his arrest for talent fraud.

Jon Morosi is wondering about a trade between the Red Sox and Tigers where Dontrelle Willis and Juilo Lugo would switch teams. Lugo, although hammered in the press, has a .268/.355/.330 line that really isn't far off from his career norm. The really big drop is in his slugging percentage, but more frequent playing time and lack of injuries usually takes care of that. Defensively, he's no good, but people seem to have their worst defensive times in Boston. He could still be somewhat useful to the Tigers, especially if he stays healthy. That leads me to the injustice of this deal, what does Boston get back?

Seriously, Willis has really plummeted. Could he bounce back? I guess, but if I'm Theo, I expect something else back from the Tigers, even if it's just a throw-in prospect.

Nolan to Shake Up Rangers

I still think he should lace 'em up again. Just secretly give him some greenies or something. Aw hell, just ask Clemens how he did it.

Whether this speaks specifically to the players or coaches or both (or even Jon Daniels), that is up for debate. However, after having the highest ERA in baseball, there is no doubt the Rangers need a new pitching staff. For starters (pun intended), they could make a play at Sabathia. I don't see them offering as much as the Yankees or Angels, but it's possible. If they can't, I don't see Sabathia willingly heading to a hitter's park. With all the prospects they have, I see them going after Jon Garland and Derek Lowe, who are ground-ball guys that won't demand five-year deals. Other guys like Mike Hampton, Kyle Lohse, or Randy Wolf might be nice additions. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Mussina back with the Yankees next season, so he's off the list. That leaves the big guys of Ben Sheets and AJ Burnett. With the injuries to the Blue Jay rotation, I think letting Burnett go would be a bad idea. As for Sheets, his injuries make him a bit of a risk for what he'll likely want, but there will be worse additions. Another problem is the amount of high-priced guys they already have. Kevin Millwood (through '10) and Vicente Padilla (through '09) cost a lot of money. They could try to trade them away, but they won't get a whole lot back (with the Rangers' farm system, just getting rid of the money commitment should be enough, but it likely won't be). They cost a combined $23 million next year, which together would be a nice run for Sabathia, but will it be enough? That's TBD for now. Honestly, the best way to get some pitching isn't to open the money vault. The best way would be through their prospect vault. Saltalamacchia for a Boston guy (Michael Bowden?)? Andrus to the Yankees for Hughes (possible replacement for Jeter?)? They could be more creative and combine guys for a run at a Kazmir, Peavy (anyone else think this guy has a pretty good chance of being traded?), Harang (who should bounce back), or Greinke.

Rays and Cubbies in Playoffs

Congratulations Rays, you've finally built up enough karma.

Both teams clinched spots in the playoffs yesterday. The Cubs won the NL Central for the second straight season, and the Rays secured at least the Wild Card. Today, the Red Sox could clinch their playoff spot. So how does the playoff picture look? Well, at 2 1/2 games up in their respective divisions, the Rays and White Sox seem to be unless something dramatic (but possible) happens. The Angels are in, and the Red Sox are all but in. In the NL, the Cubs are the only ones "in", but go ahead and count the Dodgers, Phillies, and Mets "in" as well. The thing we don't know is who will win the NL East, but the other should win the Wild Card at this point. If everything stays the same (which in the AL is entirely possible and probable), the Angels will play the Red Sox, and the Rays will play the White Sox. In the NL, the Cubs will play the Wild Card (right now the Mets), and the NL East champ (right now the Phillies -- they're up 1/2 game) will play the Dodgers. The Red Sox-Angels series seems to be a disappointment from the standpoint that I think a lot of people wanted to see that in the ALCS, but I guess you can't always get what you want.

Teahen More Comfortable at Third

Look at those skinny legs.

While Alex Gordon has been dealing with a right-hip flexor tear, Mark Teahen has moved to third base, and he has responded by going 25 for 63 with six doubles, three homers, and 10 RBI's in 16 games. He says that being in the infield helps him keep his legs. In 2006 at third base, he hit .290/.357/.517 with 18 HR, 21 2B, and 69 RBI in 109 games, and he seemed poised for a real breakout last season. However, the Royals moved him to the outfield to make room for Alex Gordon, whose lack of athleticism (or at least less than Teahen) prohibited him from making the move. He responded by hitting .285/.353/.410 with only 7 HR in 144 games. If you think this is ludicrous, think about Chipper Jones. The season before he moved to left field to make room for Vinny Castilla, he hit .330/.427/.605 with 38 HR and 33 2B. The next two seasons in left, he hit .327/.435/.536 and .305/.402/.517 with 26 and 27 HR and 35 and 33 2B. While those stats aren't quite the precipitous drop of Teahen, Chipper was in his prime and is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Still, during your prime, your power numbers shouldn't drop 11 to 12 HR and almost 100 SLG points. Therefore, I think Teahen has a point, and maybe they should move Gordon to first. Billy Butler can just DH like most want him to anyway. The thing becomes what to do with Kila Ka'aihue (the brother of Atlanta prospect Kala). He did very well in AA and AAA hitting .314/.463/.624 with 37 HR, 100 RBI, and 15 2B (? can that be right?). In the majors, he's 5/15 with a HR. Small sample size yes, but with everything else, it indicates he can play. Also of note, he only struck out 67 times against 104 BB. Who else thinks the Royals could use more walks?

Lee vs. Halladay

Who will win this most-coveted trophy?

I know this is another one these debates you've heard a few times, but how about an unbiased view. So far, I've heard both sides make great cases as to why one of them should win. The problem is that they use different statistics. Therefore, this is how this will shake down. I won't give an opinion on who should win. I'm going to put all their stats out there that I can find, and then, we'll see who has the best stats. How to do this? Each player gets one point per category. Statistics are nice, but they are essentially flawed. They can't be perfect measurements of a pitcher's performance by themselves, but together, it could work. Thus, each category counts just the same as another. Because they are each imperfect, they are thus equally imperfect (I know the logic doesn't make perfect sense, but bear with me). Here we go.

(Cliff Lee - Roy Halladay)

Wins: 22 - 19 (Lee 1-0)
Losses: 2-11 (Lee 2-0)
ERA: 2.41 - 2.81 (Lee 3-0)
Games: 30 - 33 (Lee 3-1)
Games Started: 30 - 32 (Lee 3-2)
Complete Games: 4 - 8 (3-3)
Shut-outs: 2 - 2 (3-3)
Innings Pitched: 216.1 - 237 (Halladay 4-3)
Hits: 205 - 214 (4-4)
Home-runs: 11 - 18 (Lee 5-4)
Walks: 31- 38 (Lee 6-4)
Strikeouts: 162 - 201 (Lee 6-5)
WHIP: 1.09 - 1.06 (6-6)
SLG: .341 - .348 (Lee 7-6)
OBA: .281 - .278 (7-7)
BAA: .251 - .239 (Halladay 8-7)
Holds: 0 - 1 (Halladay 9-7)
K/BB: 5.23 - 5.29 (Halladay 10-7)
BB/9: 1.29 - 1.44 (Halladay 10-8)
K/9: 6.74 - 7.63 (Halladay 11-8)
BABIP: .302 - .297 (Halladay 12-8)
WPA: 6.50 - 4.17 (Halladay 12-9)
VORP: 75.3 - 66.4 (Halladay 12-10)
Quality Starts: 23 - 21 (Halladay 12-11)
HBP: 5 - 12 (12-12)
DP: 26-19 (Lee 13-12)
Groundball/Flyball: 1.39 - 2.06 (13-13)
Runs: 63- 83 (Lee 14-13)
Earned Runs: 58 - 71 (Lee 15-13)
Wild Pitches: 3 - 4 (Lee 15-14)
Doubles: 29 - 31 (Lee 16-14)
Triples: 6 - 6 (Lee 16-14)
Stolen Bases: 3 - 13 (Lee 17-14)
Caught Stealing: 0 - 5 (Lee 17-15)

After 33 categories, Lee is the winner. I kept looking for as many stats as possible, and I know there are more out there (I don't know much about the sabermetric stuff, so I didn't include it in fear of being seen as an idiot). However, that's a pretty substantial number of stats, and Lee won. However, he didn't win by much. Maybe, instead of griping about how one shouldn't win, we should just be happy about how each has pitched. I know that won't happen, but I hope to not see so many places saying how Lee shouldn't have won. He's clearly one of the top pitchers in the league, and he may be getting some "wow" points for his turnaround. Who should win? I guess I could say, "Who cares? This just proves how stupid these things are." However, when we look back on Hall of Famers, we look at these awards. How many did they win? So, in reality, I guess they do matter. Can't they both just win it? I guess that's probably too cowardly of me.

Jo-Jo Reyes

What to do-do with Jo-Jo?

Usually when I have a headline like this, it's a good thing. Not today. Jo-Jo Reyes lost again last night, and there have to be serious doubt about his ability to be a good starter in the majors. What do the Braves do with him. I wouldn't send him down because he's already proven he's better than any AAA competition. He seems like he's that AAAA pitcher. Another thought would be to put him in the pen. The only problem with that is that he's worse in the first inning than he is any other time. His line is .300/.367/.563 in the first inning, and that doesn't look good for trying him in the bullpen. However, after 31 major league starts, his ERA is 5.89, so he can't really stay there either. I wonder if the energy and adrenaline of coming in like that would help do better in the first inning he pitches. He's left-handed, so he could be a very valuable bullpen arm. That way, he could use his best two pitches and leave it at that. Would that help? I'm not sure, but if he doesn't do well in Spring Training and his first few starts afterwards, I would think about moving him to the 'pen.

New Record!

Please tell me someone gets this besides me.

Well, this one isn't very good, but Jack Cust broke the strikeout record with his 187th last night. Too bad he's not a pitcher. In a season (really more of a half) that the A's would like to forget, Cust added another forgettable outcome. Most people think of him as a "Three True Outcomes" player (strikes out, walks, or hits a home run), and this season he has 29 HR, 103 BB, and 187 K. That's pretty much by the book. Are 3TO players helpful? I guess if you consider a guy like Adam Dunn helpful. I do, so I think they are. Cust's .369 OBP is pretty good, and you gotta like the power. However, you hate it when he comes up in the 9th with a couple guys on. You're just waiting for him to strikeout because you know it happens six times more often than a homer. They aren't guys you can depend on in crucial situations (although they'll help a few times), but they can still give quite a bit of production. His close-and-late stats? .242/.413/.565 with 6 HR and 32 K.

Marcum to Have Tommy John

It's gonna get rougher.

Another tough break for the Toronto Blue Jays, Shaun Marcum has to have surgery on his elbow. It's another paycheck for Dr. Andrews, but it's 12 months or more of rehab for Marcum. This season, he was 9-7 with a 3.39 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP with 123 K and 50 BB in 151.1 IP. He was supposed to be the next big cog in that rotation. That rotation was supposed to be Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and maybe AJ Burnett (if they could keep him). Instead, they're left with Halladay and Litsch. Not that Litsch isn't good, but I think the Blue Jays would prefer McGowan (shoulder surgery and out until about May) and Marcum over just Litsch. If possible, they would have liked all three. Does this knock them out of talks for winning next season, even with Travis Snider, Adam Lind, and JP Arencibia? Brett Cecil could step in, but he's a former closer. If the "30 Inning" rule doesn't apply to him, it doesn't to anyone, and in case it does, he can only throw about 150 IP next season. Other guys like David Purcey and Casey Janssen could also be options, but they don't seem as good as Marcum and McGowan. It'll be rough for the Blue Jays next year.

Chipper in GQ

This is more like it.

I never thought I'd see the day when Chipper would be in GQ. He's not really known for his dress, and I've always considered him more redneck than metrosexual. Luckily, that's not what the article is about. He's dressed in the Braves home uniform, and he's talking about his career, especially the early years. It's always interesting to hear people bagging on him for his affair/divorce, calling out "Hooters!", and the like, but it's undeniable what he's done on the field. For the most part, I've always tried to keep on the field stuff and off the field stuff separate, but I know that's difficult to do. Anyway, Chipper talks pretty openly about what happened early in his career. At that point, I was too young to really pay attention/discern what was going on. I knew about the divorce because the World Series analysts basically couldn't stop talking about it when he filed for divorce, but I couldn't have really understood what happened or what he did. Despite what he's done, I still consider him my all-time favorite player (I don't think he's the best to play the game), and when he retires, McCann will take his place as my favorite active player. No one will take his place as my favorite player. I grew up with him. When he was young and immature, I was really young and really immature. The one thing I take from his divorce/affair is how he acted after that. Instead of continuing to be a d*ck, he took responsibility. He fessed up in the media, and more importantly, he took care of the child he fathered. He's not perfect, but who is? People make mistakes, but it's what they do after making the mistakes that makes you who you are. As 3 Doors Down says in "The Only One You've Got", "Your mistakes do not define you now, they tell you who you're not."

"30 Inning" Warning List for 2009

Update: Jason at IIATMS just told me that it should be over their career-high, so you can strike Ervin Santana from that list. However, does anyone else think it's a bad idea to go so far over a previous season? Sometimes, I think we over-analyze, but it seems at that stage of a career it could still be a problem to have a much larger workload than a previous year.

He's not safe, but his rotation mate seems to be.

After talking about Scott Lewis this morning, it got me thinking about guys who have pitched more than 30 innings more than the previous season. I'm not sure who came up with the rule (it certainly wasn't me), but evidently, if a pitcher under 27 pitches more than 30 innings than he did the previous season, he is in line for injuries and/or decline the next season. So, who's in line for injuries and/or decline?

Tim Lincecum (SF) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 177.1 IP
2008 --> 215.2 IP
People have always talked about his freakish delivery and how it could have problems. Will it come to roost in '09?

Cole Hamels (PHI) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 183.1 IP
2008 --> 220.1 IP
Will the Phillies have to survive with Myers/Moyer next season?

Chad Billingsley (LAD) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 147 IP
2008 --> 192.2 IP
This guy is one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors, but he'll top 200 K. What about next year?

Jon Lester (BOS) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 153.2 IP
2008 --> 197.1 IP
He's a great comeback story, but will he have to make another comeback in 2010?

John Danks (CWS) --> 23 years old
2007 --> 139 IP
2008 --> 176 IP
And he was just starting to realize his potential.

Ervin Santana (LAA) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 150 IP
2008 --> 205 IP
He's already had this problem as '06 predicted an '07 decline (which happened). Now, they could be repeating the same mistake.

Joe Saunders (LAA) --> 27 years old
2007 --> 193.2 IP
2008 --> 192 IP
He hasn't reached it yet, but the playoffs could push him over. Geez, maybe the Angels should invest in Sabathia because it seems like they're going to need him.

Ricky Nolasco (FLA) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 55 IP
2008 --> 199.1 IP
Does this rule count for injuries, which Nolasco had las season? Still, that's a lot of innings for Nolasco.

Zach Greinke (KC) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 122 IP
2008 --> 195.1 IP
Trade him. Trade him now.

Matt Garza (TB) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 175 IP
2008 --> 179.2 IP
Like Saunders, the playoffs could do him in (a la Fausto Carmona).

Mike Pelfrey (NYM) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 152.2 IP
2008 --> 188.2 IP
John Maine redux?

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) --> 22 years old
2007 --> 142.2 IP
2008 --> 181.1 IP
Crap.

Gavin Floyd (CWS) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 176.2 IP
2008 --> 188.1 IP
The playoffs can create a long list of problems next year.

Nick Blackburn (MIN) --> 26 years old
2007 --> 160.1 IP
2008 --> 180.2 IP
Another playoff casualty?

Guys like Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Felix Hernandez, Armando Galarraga, Matt Cain, and John Lannan seem to be safe. None should go too far over previous years. But, doesn't this seem like a long, influential list of young arms, and it's not even complete. I stopped after the top 50 pitchers in terms of ERA. Is the focus on young pitching causing this? Is this a real problem? I don't know, but I'll label it and come back to it.

Soto Scratched with Hand Injury

Or, maybe this is how he hurt it.

Yeah, I think my hand would hurt, too, after b*tch-slapping Milwaukee yesterday.

Lewises Thriving for Cleveland

Guess which Lewis.

In a dismal, disappointing season, who has forgotten to check up on the Indians? ME! ME! Oh, anyway. I say, "Scott Lewis", and you say, "Who?". I say, "Jensen Lewis", and you say, "I think I remember him." Regardless, both of these guys have pitched very well for the Indians lately. Scott Lewis is an impressive 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 14 IP, so it's a James Parr small sample size. Yet, his ERA's in AA and AAA were 2.33 and 2.62, respectively. Therefore, I'd say this is relatively for real, or at least, he's a really good pitcher that could theoretically be good. The only bad thing is that he's only thrown around 110 innings this season, so with two more starts, he'll only get to around 125 if he's lucky. According to the "30 Innings" rule, he could only throw around 155 next season, which really isn't enough to be a major-league starter.

As for Jensen Lewis, he's the new closer for the Indians, and he's 10/10 in that situation. Overall, his ERA is 3.96 with 48 K in 61.1 IP, so he's not dominant. However, he has 18 K in his last 17 innings as closer, while giving up only 6 runs in that time. He and Rafael Perez can hopefully give this team a good back of the bullpen next season, and maybe, Betancourt can return to form as well.

Day Off

I wish.

I have about three papers due next week and plenty of reading to do, so there hasn't been and probably won't be anything today. I've started to realize why Jason and Craig take the weekends off. Still, I enjoy doing this, but I do need today off. Things should get back to normal tomorrow and Saturday, but Sunday might or might not be slow due to me writing papers. Actually, chances are I'll take breaks and write on here. Regardless, have a fun Thirsty Thursday because I won't.

Let the Professionals Handle This

They're worried, too. They're worried, too.

Kevin Gregg is worried about his trade value. More specifically, he's worried about him becoming the set-up guy being detrimental for his trade value. First, you don't get to complain about being the set-up guy when you've blown 9 saves. Putting you in to close and blow more saves actually hurts your trade value. Just because you'd be the closer doesn't make anything better. You have to, you know, succeed at your job to improve your trade value. Second, it's not your job to worry about trade value. I'm sure the Marlins are as upset about you losing trade value as you are. At this point, they are going to have to non-tender you to get rid of you. Third, because you know you're going to get traded, then they are going to trade you, which means they need to think about the future. That means, they need to get Lindstrom into closing situations to see if he can handle it.

With a 3.66 ERA and 57 K in 64 IP, Gregg really isn't all that bad. Yet, then you see the 35 BB and the 29/38 in save situations, and you realize that he is that bad. His .211 BAA is pretty good, though. Somebody will bite, but Gregg's right in that it won't be for much, especially with arbitration looming.