26 August 2008

Which of the In-Contention Teams Has the Best Offense?

There should be more celebrations in Chicago by the end of October.


In the third part of this three-part series (I defined it ... so there), I'm going to look at the contenders' offenses and then say who the best team is overall after looking at them (I have a feeling that I'll be disgusted with who I choose).

Mets
Surprisingly, the Mets have more runs than the Phillies, but I think that has more to do with how bad the Phillies have played lately. It all starts at the top with Jose Reyes, who is quietly having a very good year, and without him, the Mets would sink. After him, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran are also having outstanding years, although again most don't realize it. Isn't it weird how people forget about the Mets but never the Yankees? You know you're the red-headed step-child when ... Anyway, if not for the injuries to Castillo, Alou (although Murhpy is doing surprisingly well, but he can't keep it up, can he?), and Church, the Mets may have the best lineup in baseball. Too bad, those injuries exist, and the Mets don't have the best lineup. Good enough to win? Sure, but not the best.

Phillies
This should be the best in baseball, but for some reason, they refuse to allow themselves to be that good. Rollins, after his MVP season, has been a disappointment, but with his 8 hits in his last 8 at bats, he could be coming out of it at the right time. Further down, what happened to Utley in the second-half (his SLG dropped 100 points)? What happened to Howard (awful BA)? Burrell (see Utley)? Otherwise, they've gotten fairly solid, but not spectacular, performances from Feliz, Dobbs, and Werth. They should be really good, but they just haven't been.

Marlins
How would you like to have Uggla and Ramirez? I would too, just not the second-half versions. Uggla has been extremely disappointing since his great start, and Ramirez has settled down as well. Luckily, they have Jorge Cantu (really?) to save them. Hermida and Jacobs have been your run of the mill power guys (not TTO considering Jacobs can't take a walk). Otherwise, there isn't too much to be afraid of, and no one is hitting over .300 (Ramirez is close at .296). It's not a bad lineup, but they could use a few more bats (maybe Manny? Oh wait, they passed on him).

Cubs
Again, the Cubs might have the best in the category with their offense. Now, they are the best lineup run-wise among contenders (the Rangers are the best in the majors), and they're patient (1st in OBP). The Riot has been great (albeit with little pop). The middle of the order sees Lee, Ramirez, and Soto who are having very good seasons. Add in Fukudome (who has struggled recently) and DeRosa, and the Cubs have depth in the lineup. Edmonds and Johnson haven't been a bad platoon either. Just a tough team all around.

Brewers
Another team that should be better. Having a young lineup full of Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Hardy should score tons of runs, but they really haven't. Maybe Bill Hall's dismal performance (having Russell Branyan splitting time is never a good thing) hurt it. Mike Cameron has been decent. Oh that's right, Jason Kendall is still the catcher. Then again, few teams have good hitting catchers. Rickie Weeks really hasn't helped either. Still, this wouldn't be a fun lineup to face.

Cardinals
How the hell does St. Louis keep doing this? LaRussa makes me wonder if Bobby Cox is off his rocker (that debate is for another day ... but soon) because he just keeps it going no matter how bad things look. We all knew Pujols would be great. But Ludwick? Ankiel (he's a good hitter, but did we really expect him to be this good?)? Molina (not just a defensive whiz anymore)? Schumaker? This all forgets the reclamation project of Troy Glaus. I figured the Rolen-Glaus trade was a bad one for the Jays, but I didn't figure it would be this lop-sided. To think the Cards would score more runs than the Phillies was unimaginable at the beginning of the season, but here we are.

Diamondbacks
This is what happens with young lineups: inconsistency. Losing Hudson really doesn't help as Ojeda/Burke is no way to replace Hudson. Adding Dunn is a nice touch, but he doesn't make them that much better. Drew and Jackson seem to have figured it out, but Young, Upton, Snyder, and Reynolds are all pretty hit-or-miss (literally and figuratively). Tracy and Clark help but not that much. Good thing they have a pretty good pitching staff.

Dodgers
Adding Manny was a great step for the Dodgers, but as we've seen lately, he can't hold them up forever. Kemp, Loney, Martin, Either and Kent have all been solid but not impact bats in that lineup (it makes you wonder if the young guys will ever be). This team really needs Furcal. I mean really needs Furcal. They could also use the 2005/2006 version of Andruw Jones. Too bad.

Rays
With Longoria, the Rays don't have much power. Without him, they have even less. Good thing Peña snapped out of his funk and has held this team up on his shoulders. This lineup isn't spectacular, and without Crawford, they're even less so. So why do they keep winning? Great (and healthy) pitching. Iwamura and Bartlett have been better than I expected, but Upton has been worse. There's really no sting in those Rays, but with Longoria, it could be good enough to make a run.

Red Sox
This isn't last year's (or 2004's) Red Sox. Manny's gone. Big Papi lost his pop (due to his hand injury -- I expect he'll be okay next season). Taking up the slack is Youkilis and Bay who are doing very well (and in Youk's case MVP well). Pedroia and Ellsbury keep chugging along, and Lowrie is an upgrade over Lugo. Still, there seems to be a loss to the mystique. It's not just Manny being gone. It's Papi not hitting for power. It's Bay not being a proven clutch guy. It's Youkilis not being a big name (well ... not Manny big anyway). They just don't scare me, and they still wouldn't with Manny. Still, that lineup is still 4th in the majors in runs scored, so they must be doing it anyway. As they always do.

White Sox
They are the third best in the majors in runs scored, but is anyone sure how? Dye's had a bounce-back year. Quentin may well win the MVP. Ramirez continually makes a case for the ROY Award. Pierzynski has been solid (great for a catcher). Thome's been Thome. Too bad Konerko and Swisher really haven't been their old selves (albeit both have drawn plenty of walks), or this team would be just plain lethal. Cabrera and Griffey have been decent, but they don't scare anyone. Still, overall, this offense has plenty of pop and the experience to win in October.

Twins
Again, how are they doing this? Guess where they stand. 30th? 20th? 10th? Try 6th in the majors in runs scored. Pretty impressive for a team that no one thought could hit. Mauer and Morneau have been their typical outstanding selves. Denard Span has come on strong. Casilla and Buscher have done well in limited opportunities. Young hasn't been impressive. Yet, they continue to hit, but somehow, come October, they'll be an early exit, if they make it.

Angels
Adding Teixeira should have made this team the best in the majors, but has he? Has he affected the lineup that much? In August, they're 19th in the majors in runs scored. They're 18th overall. That's not a real impact. Still, they have Teixeira, Vlad, Torii, and Kendrick. Figgins is a nice spark plug, and Anderson has been pretty good. Not a bad lineup, but I don't think it's the best. Also, if they keep mailing it in, they might forget how to hit come October, just in time for Boston to knock them back out ... again.

So who's the best offense? I'm afraid I'll have to give it to the Cubs. They're statistically the best of the contenders, and they're healthy. You really can't make much of a case against them except that Fukudome has slumped lately. Still, they have the experience, patience, and power to succeed. The Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox, and Angels all fall in behind them and can make runs in the playoffs. The Rays really should have added Bay. With him, they'd be really good. With Crawford and Bay, they'd be close to the best.

So who's the best team? It's hard to argue against the Cubs (damn, I hate saying it). They have one of the top two or three starting staffs, the second-best bullpen, and the best offense. The Angels are close, but I think the Cubs' offense is much better even though the pitching is similar. The Rays are good, but again, the Cubs have a much better offense. The Red Sox are good, but the pitching is much better (at least healthier) in the pitching department and a little better offensively (just a smidge better if Big Papi gets his pop back). The sleeper team is the White Sox. I think they have a top 3 rotation, bullpen, and offense.

World Series according to themarksmith? Cubs v. White Sox (how cool would this be? Think someone would watch that World Series?) with the Cubs winning in 5. Now, I'm going to wash out my mouth with soap.

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