I don't see Kotchman as a part of the Braves' long-long-term plans.For now and probably the next three years, the Braves are set with Casey Kotchman, and though he's had a slow start, Braves fans shouldn't give up on him. A former first-rounder, Kotchman has had several injuries that have hampered his development, but don't be incredibly surprised if he flips the switch in the next year or two. Not known for his power, Kotchman's career high is 12 (this season), but again, this is really his second full season. At 6'3" and 210 pounds, he has the frame to hit for power, and if someone could reign in his stride, he might discover that power. Even without power, he hits for a high average and usually walks a bit as well, but he rarely strikes out. He may never hit more than 25 home runs in a season, but that would be better than what the Braves got this season. Defensively, he's one of the best, and I expect, if his power numbers go up (isn't it weird how usually you need some offense to win the Gold Glove -- ie. Adam Everett?), he could win a few Gold Gloves before he's finished. For the next three years, the Braves should have a solid, but not spectacular first baseman that has a higher batting average but lower power numbers than a regular first baseman.
In AA, the Braves have an interesting player in Kala Ka'aihue. While he only has 13 home runs this season, he has power potential, especially considering his 6'2", 230 pound frame. At 23, he is still young, and he may get promoted to AAA next season. In Mississippi, he hit .269/.412/.448 with 22 2B, 58 RBI, and 84 BB, but he does have 116 K in 122 games. In other words, he could be another Adam Dunn, or he could be Russell Branyan. Personally, I'd be okay with an Adam Dunn. The trick will be his adjustment to AAA pitching next season. If he does well, the Braves could use Kotchman's value (being affordable for 2+ years) to bring back much needed pitching, outfield power, or middle infielders (I'll get to that later). While he has been slow to adjust when switching levels, he has made the adjustments.
In A ball, the Braves have a few good options. One, as mentioned yesterday, could be Tyler Flowers, but he's more valuable as a catcher, and with the limited options there, the Braves will keep him there to give him more playing time. However, also in Myrtle Beach is Ernesto Mejia. He's having a breakout season hitting .270/.319/.501, which demonstrates his power but also a lack of plate discipline. He has 20 HR and 46 2B (46!), but he also has 135 K in 127 games. That type of lack of contact is a bit worrisome, but he could develop that ability as he progresses, similar to Carlos Delgado who dramatically decreased his strikeout totals during his minor league career. The real drag with Mejia, though, is his 23 errors. Ouch, that's terrible for a first baseman, but I don't see too many people complaining about Ryan Howard. He could also feasibly learn to play better defensively, although any dreams of Gold Gloves are way out of reach.
One level down in Rome, Freddy Freeman seems to be the brightest star of all. He's hit .318/.378/.525 with 18 HR, 95 RBI, 33 2B, 7 3B, and 70 R. He has 83 K in 128 games, but that's not too bad. One would like to see a bit better plate discipline, but he is only 18. He has plenty of time to learn a little more plate discipline, and some defense (14 errors for a .988 F% -- not bad but not good either). However, he and Jason Heyward may be a 3-4 combo in the making for the Braves. It's just too bad they'll have to wait ... oh, 3 more years (2 if they rush them) for that to even start.
Overall, the Braves do have some decent prospects, but Freeman may be the only impact bat in the group, and he's a few years away. Ultimately, I see Kotchman playing out the next three years in Atlanta (maybe less if Ka'aihue or Mejia progress) and then being waved good-bye as the Freeman-Heyward Era begins in earnest.
No comments:
Post a Comment