Odd Man Out in Angels Rotation

I believe. I BE-LIE-VE.

There have been debates as to whom will start in the postseason for the Angels. Their rotation is one of the best in baseball with Lackey, Saunders, Santana, Weaver, and Garland, and having this problem is a good thing. Who do I get to start? Let's take a look.

John Lackey
19 starts, 137.1 IP (7.1 IP/start), 11-2, 2.95 ERA, 104 K, 31 BB, 1.10 WHIP

Joe Saunders
25 starts, 163 IP (6.2 IP/start), 14-6, 3.37 ERA, 78 K, 46 BB, 1.21 WHIP

Ervin Santana
26 starts, 176.2 IP (6.2 IP/start), 13-5, 3.41 ERA, 176 K, 42 BB, 1.13 WHIP

Jered Weaver
26 starts, 154 IP (6 IP/start), 10-10, 4.38 ERA, 127 K, 46 BB, 1.27 WHIP

Jon Garland
26 starts, 162.1 IP (6.1 IP/start), 11-8, 4.49 ERA, 72 K, 49 BB, 1.47 WHIP

To me, it seems as though Lackey and Santana have to be in due to their great ERA's and low WHIP's. Should Saunders be in due to his low ERA, even though his WHIP is similar to Weaver's? Let's look a bit further between those two. Their HR totals are similar (Sanders 18- Weaver 20) and their hit given up are almost identical as well (151-150). What's not similar? Their K/9 rates (4.31-7.42). This tells me that either Saunders has been incredibly lucky or Weaver has been incredibly unlucky. Weaver isn't necessarily getting hit harder, but runs seem to score against him. Is it a matter of Saunders buckling down better? Also, Weaver, although 2 years younger, has 15 more starts in his career. I think I'd take Weaver in the playoffs where his K rate is higher at a time where power arms seem at an advantage. Weaver is also a run and a half better since the break where Saunders is a half run worse. Small sample size? Probably, but Saunders may be wearing down (although still very effective). To me Garland really doesn't belong. He isn't that great of a pitcher, and his WHIP is much higher than the others. I guess this really wasn't as hard as I thought.

However, think about this. Saunders has no playoff experience, but Garland has a 2.25 ERA in 16 IP (8/start) in the playoffs. Weaver has one game under his belt. Also, would Garland be a good reliever. His low K rate says he wouldn't be a back of the bullpen guy, so he would have to be a long-reliever, which might be useful. However, you're probably almost out of the game at that point. Garland may be better served in the starting rotation, and Weaver could pitch the 6-7th innings and use his strikeouts to a better advantage. Furthermore, this could serve as an innings limit for Weaver, who is almost to his career-high in innings with a month left, while still putting him in game-changing situations. You may not want Garland there. I like Saunders in the rotation to split things up with the lefty. That way, no one can get on a roll always facing righties. Splitting up makes the hitter change things a bit, and some platoon situations would then come in effect. With Weaver and Garland's ERA's similar, they may not be worse or better than the other, and putting Weaver in the bullpen makes some sense.

Either way, the Angels will be fine. However, I'd go Lackey, Santana, Saunders, Garland, and repeat. Maybe Lackey and Santana should pitch twice in the Division Series. Then, bring in Weaver in the 6th, 7th, or 8th innings to team up with Arredondo, Shields, and K-Rod.