No, this isn't the answers to the quiz, but if you want those, come back around 11 or 12. Anyway, this also is not a blog about some life changing event or "from ash you were made and to dust you shall return". It's simply about how baseball, and history for that matter, are cyclical. What started me thinking on this? Tim Lincecum wanting to go year-to-year on contracts.
For the past few years, teams have been trying to sign their young players to team-friendly, long-term contracts, and the players have usually agreed to them. Players such as James Shields, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Noah Lowry, and Ian Snell have all taken the security over breaking the bank. There has already been a reaction to this through the likes of Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Ryan Howard, and, now, Tim Lincecum who want to risk injuries and ineffectiveness to make more money during arbitration and reach free agency as soon as possible. Honestly, if I were on the Giants, I would try to get the hell out of Dodge, too. I still think most young players will opt for the security (Jeff Francoeur wanted one but didn't get it) over the possible dollars. But in a few years, players will start realizing all the money people have been giving up, and they will start to go year-to-year. This just makes me wonder about other things.
Will pitchers eventually go back to pitching 280+ innings? I know it seems as though it's impossible as most starters now have trouble making it through six innings a start, but is it possible? Teams are already trying to get pitchers to pitch deeper into games, one team even tried putting starters in during the third inning to finish the game to develop the "ninth inning" mindset. Most teams, however, are simply being more diligent with their pitchers' development. Instead of rushing them for this year, they are monitoring their innings even though it seems it will hurt the immediate needs of the team (ie. Clay Buchholz last season). Also, with modern technology and training techniques, isn't it possible they will find a way to make arms more durable? If this happens, will we see an end to the closer and the specialized bullpen, or will it simply be incorporated into the renewed pitching staffs? Would it increase the specialization? Fewer innings mean that managers could be more creative and go by the righty-righty and lefty-lefty matchups all the time instead of some of the time.
Will we see a return to a faster pace of baseball? The steroids scandal has brought into question everything about the power game. Will the questions and scrutiny ultimately lead to speed and contact becoming more a part of the game? If everyone questions the legitimacy of your home run, try getting singles and doubles while stealing bases. Of course, someone would have to prove it could win against modern-day play, but haven't the Angels shown it could work?
Will wooden bats finally become mandatory in Little League and college games? Maybe ash bats would be the better choice instead of maple for health reasons (but seriously, is there a bigger risk or chance of being impaled by a bat than there is to a ball cracking someone's skull? I guess if you have another option, you should go with it). It has already become an issue with colleges, and parents worry about their little kids. I would like to see it, and it would make it easier for professional teams to scout if they didn't have to worry about the effect of the aluminum. Wooden bats may break, but metal ones aren't indestructible. Yet, the wooden bats are more affordable.
Will we see a return to pitching with location and movement instead of by power? It might help the pitchers pitch more and longer. Will scouts start looking for movement and location over velocity? Even KLaw first looks at the radar gun. Guys like Moyer and Maddux have shown it's possible to pitch well without a big fastball. It might be better to have a guy who can throw 95 with good offspeed pitches and good location, but if the increased velocity causes more injuries, is it worth the risk? Do you really want to have a dominant pitcher for three to five years over a guy who uses his defense more but still has good statistics and is more durable? Has modern technology such as the video camera allowing for increased scouting reports on pitcher caused this to be impossible? Players spend more time than ever watching previous games by pitchers, so if they see a pattern to the strategy, the decrease in velocity could make it easier to hit. A harder fastball and unpredictable location could make hitting harder ("effectively wild").
I don't know the answers to these questions, but I think it's fun to think about. How will the game change? It won't stay like it is, but what future events (or even current events) will shape the game in 50 years?
No comments:
Post a Comment