09 August 2008

Oliver Perez as the Human Enigma


Oliver Perez dominated the Marlins last night by going 7 innings and striking out 8 while giving up only 2 hits and 3 walks. It's this kind of start that will get him $13-15 million for the next 3-5 seasons. While you can't be that good every night, he's the very definition of feast or famine. In April, he either gave up 0 runs (3 starts) or 5+ runs (3 starts). May was a bit more usual as he gave up between 2-5 runs in each, so none were outstanding or particularly awful. In June, he was back to his old tricks by either giving up 1 run (3 starts) or 4-6 runs (3 starts). His July was truly outstanding as he gave up 0 runs (once), 1 run (3 times), or 3 runs (once) for a 1.38 ERA. In August, he's given up 4 runs or 0 runs (both once). While he's inconsistent, he's only 26 (he'll turn 27 next week), so he's still pretty young. On the season, he's 8-7, which isn't particularly good, but you really can't look at those numbers to indicate success. His ERA is 3.90 (pretty good, maybe worthy of a 3 starter). He's struck out 123 in 136 innings (I'll take that any day). The big knock on him seems to be that he walks more than 1 every 2 innings (not good at all), and that he's never thrown 200+ innings. He doesn't give up a lot of hits (114 in 136 innings), but his WHIP is 1.35 because of the walks. His 2004 season (12-10, 2.99 ERA, 238 K) was outstanding, but he hasn't been able to live up to that since. Last year (15-10, 3.50 ERA, 174 K) was a definite step in the right direction. With a good two months down the stretch, Perez could earn himself a lot of money. It will be the difference between turning the corner in his career and continuing to be the enigma. What will he be?

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