04 November 2008

Ludwick for Johnson?

Let's see how this goes. Maybe something will come out of these meetings ... Nah.


Digging deep in the catacombs of the comments section of a Dave O'Brien article, Tim Dierkes found a nice rumor surrounding Ryan Ludwick and Kelly Johnson. Again, he said it was just a "whisper", but the deal seems to make sense on the surface. The Cardinals have always struggled to find a second baseman, and the Braves need a power-hitting outfielder. Both are under control for three more years, so it's a wash that way. So should the teams do it?

Kelly Johnson (age 27)
He hit .287/.349/.446 this past season with 12 HR, 69 RBI, and 86 R. His BB% dipped from 13.2 to 8.7, which is quite the drop. His BABIP was .344, which is really high. However, his LD% (Line Drive percentage -- how do you decide if it was a line drive?) rose from 18.8 to 24.7, which is pretty impressive. He hit fewer home runs (16 to 12), but he hit a lot more doubles (26 to 39). Overall, he's a very good offensive second baseman, but he's not so good defensively. He struggles to even make the routine plays, but he's pretty extraordinary turning the double play with his quick release. I'm guessing he just needs more experience to be about average defensively.

Ryan Ludwick (age 30)
Ludwick just a huge breakout season by hitting .299/.375/.591 with 37 HR and 104 RBI. His BABIP was actually higher than Johnson's at .349, so his BA should dip next season. His BB% was 10.3, which was better than 8.7, but his K% was 27.1 (ouch). Anyway, he did 40 2B, which was just higher than Johnson's. As for the LD%, it was 26.3%, so he hit the ball better than Johnson. Defensively, I'm not really sure, but when I saw him play twice, he wasn't special in any way. He took a while to get to the majors and stick because of injuries, but he was a top prospect. Therefore, it's probable that he's finally healthy and hitting during his prime years.

Really, this is one of those trades that is an equal need-for-need trade. The Braves have other players to play second (Martin Prado, Omar Infante, and Brent Lillibridge), and the Cardinals have other outfielders (Colby Rasmus, Skip Schumaker, and Brian Barton). Ludwick seems to be the better offensive player, however, so the Cardinals might ask for a low-level minor-leaguer in addition. As a Braves fan, I don't necessary like trading away Johnson, but I like the addition of Ludwick more. However, the Braves can't afford to give away Escobar if this happens as I really don't think they have that many middle infielders, unless they decided to make a run at Furcal with their additional money (I wouldn't mind). Actually, let's do that. Trade Escobar to get Peavy and Johnson to get Ludwick, and then, sign Furcal because there will be additional money. Still, it's just a rumor, but it is a very plausible one.

1 comment:

Ron Rollins said...

This would be a mistake. Medium middle-infielder's are a lot easier to find than power hitting OF's.

Plus, Ankiel and Glaus can't stay healthy enough to stay in the line-up and protect Albert (he's officialy gone into first-name only basis) all year long. No protection, no typical Albert year. Just 100 IBB's.

And Ludwick is exactly the type of player that LaRussa likes. No way that trade goes through.

But I do see Renteria coming back to play 2B.