Sonnanstine or Jackson

He's better than people think he is.

The Mets are in need of starting pitching, and they have reportedly targeted the Rays' surplus of young pitching, namely Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine. If you were GM Omar Minaya, who would you choose? Based solely on talent, Jackson is the clear winner, but you don't work in a vacuum. Sonnanstine is cheaper and will cost fewer prospects. Is Jackson that much better?

Edwin Jackson
He's 25 years old, and has three arbitration years ahead of him. This past season, he was 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA in 183.1 IP. He gave up 199 hits in those innings while striking out 108 and walking 77. His K/9 was 5.30 (down from 7.16), and his BB/9 was 3.78 (down from 4.92). His BABIP was .301, so he wasn't lucky or unlucky. His LOB% was 76.1, which isn't bad, and his HR/FB was 9.6%, which is pretty normal as well. All told, his ERA was pretty in line with his performance and what it could project to be. As for what type of pitcher he is, his GB/FB was .98, but we don't know what the new ballpark will be like. What makes Jackson more interesting is his potential. People see him as a potential ace. If you believe that, you might want to consider adding him now while his price isn't astronomical. However, his FIP only dropped a whole .02 from last year. He may just be a less-frustrating version of Daniel Cabrera.

Andy Sonnanstine
Sonnanstine is 6 months older than Jackson, so he's not too much older. He also is under control for four years, instead of Jackson's three. This past season, he was 13-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 193.1 IP. He gave up 212 hits while striking out 124 and walking only 37. His BABIP was .312 was a little unlucky, and his LOB% was only 66.3% was even more unlucky. All this led to his FIP being actually 3.91, which a whole run better than Jackson, and that's a decent improvement from last year's 4.26. But, it could just be variation, or it could be improvement. His K/9 was 5.77 (down from 6.68) and his BB/9 was 1.72 (almost identical to last year's 1.79), making him extremely accurate. As for groundballs, his GB/FB was only 1.03, so he isn't more of a groundball-pitcher than Jackson. What about home runs? His HR/FB was 8%, so he was a little lucky here. He's probably a 4 ERA pitcher, but he seems more consistent. Jackson could be an ace someday, but it's just as likely to stay where he is: a mid to high-4 ERA pitcher. Sonnanstine may not be an ace, but the Mets don't need an ace or number 2 guy.

So who do you take? Personally, Jackson seems to get a lot of credit where it's not really due. Apparently, Maddon believed the same thing and started Sonnanstine in the playoffs. I can't really blame Jackson, though, as the Dodgers are the ones who rushed his development. He could take a giant step forward next season, but do you want to bet on it? I'll take Sonnanstine.
But then again, can they get both?