Holliday Traded to the A's

Update (6:58 PM): As if Street is burning a hole in their pocket, the Rockies are already thinking of trading him. It's probably for the best.

Well, you can't say Billy Beane isn't bold, but you can say Holliday is bald.

As I wait for the Peavy deal to come to some sort of conclusion, the A's came in and swept the Rockies away to get Matt Holliday. The deal is rumored to be Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street for Holliday. If that's true, and it's probably a little too late for it not to be, the Rockies got quite a bit for Holliday. Gonzalez is a talented young outfielder who the Rockies can move into left or into center if they choose to move Ian Stewart to left instead. Greg Smith is a good young starting pitcher the Rockies can put behind Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Street is a very good, young reliever the Rockies can team with Manny Corpas. The key word in all of these sentences is "young", and each are under control for at least two years (Smith and Gonzalez are under control for at least five, I believe). Here's a more detailed breakdown.

Matt Holliday
Holliday will be 29 next season, and he has one year left on his contract. Depending on how he does, the A's have some flexibility in their payroll to extend him, granted not before he hits free-agency of course. This past season, Holliday hit .321/.409/.538. His BB% took a big step up from 9 to 12.1, and his K% stayed right around 19. His BABIP was a high .356, and that will probably come down a bit in Oakland (his BABIP for home/road were nearly identical for this season, oddly enough). Due to quite a few more steals (28 from 11), his RC/9 actually stayed at 9.08 (actually slightly up from 9.03), but you wonder if Oakland would let him steal that much (he was 28/30). If he doesn't keep up this amount of steals, he likely won't be as valuable considering his home runs will likely take a dip (but maybe his doubles will go up?). Defensively, he's not very good, but he's used to playing in a big ballpark. Also remember, the A's can DH if they want, but they do have Jack Cust (not a good idea for the outfield). All told, Holliday is an above-average left-fielder, but he may not be an All-Star any longer.

Carlos Gonzalez
His first season didn't go quite as well, but a trip to hitter-friendly Coors and more experience could possibly turn Gonzalez into a near-Matt Holliday. He only hit .241/.273/.361, so he could stand to be a bit more patient at the plate. His BB& of 4.1 is pretty abysmal, and his K% of 26.4 doesn't help. However, it was his first season, so we'll get to see a bit more coming up. His BABIP was .318, so don't expect a huge dropoff in average (if anything, it should go up considering where he's going). Defensively, he should be an upgrade over Holliday. All told, the Rockies got a pretty good young outfielder (23 next season) who could plausibly turn out to be an All-Star with a little help from Coors. He won't be there next season, but by season 3 or 4, you might want to look out.

Greg Smith
The soon-to-be 25 year old pitched well in Oakland, but things get tougher for him now. He was 7-16 with a 4.16 ERA in 190 IP this past season with a K/9 of 5.25 (not very good) and a BB/9 of 4.11 (not good at all). His GB/FB was .75, so again, the move to Colorado could be rough. Want some more bad news? His BABIP was .258 (should go up, way up), and his HR/FB was 7.9% (again, should go up). As much as Gonzalez will benefit from going to Colorado, Smith will hate it. His FIP was already 4.82, and I don't expect next year's ERA to be any lower. He doesn't strike people out, he walks a lot of people, and he got lucky this season. The A's sold high on this one.

Huston Street
The 25 year old (for most of next season) went 7-5 with a 3.73 ERA and 18 saves in 25 chances in exactly 70 IP. He wasn't real unlucky with a FIP of 3.47. His K/9 was a solid 8.87, but his BB/9 was up for him at 3.47 (career 2.61). His GB/FB was low at .87, so he may not like Coors a whole lot more, either. His BABIP was .288 (normal) and his LOB% was 73.5% (normal). Street, his ERA, and the Rockies could be in for a big shock next summer. Street is a good reliever, but Colorado is not the place to go for pitchers. He may wish he was traded to the Mets instead.

Overall, this is a fairly even trade, if you can believe it. I don't think either pitcher will fair well in Colorado, and as unsure as everyone is about Holliday, can you be more sure about Gonzalez? Still, the Rockies received young, cheap talent that may still be improving. I could see this being a big win for the Rockies than a big win for the A's, but it may very well just work out well for each. You never really know, especially because of injuries, etc., but for now, this seems like a fair trade. The Rockies get a young starter, closer, and outfielder, and the A's get a little bop.

P.S. Sorry, no links today or tomorrow as school is making my life hell.