Braves Pitching

Young stud or young tease?

You expect me to talk about Jake Peavy. You expect me to talk about AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, or Ben Sheets. You even expect me to talk about Tommy Hanson. But, I won't. I actually want to talk about the two pitchers we know will be in the rotation next season: Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo. Both are in interesting positions. Jurrjens is a young starting pitcher that just broke out in a big way and looks capable of being a front-of-the-rotation starter in the NL. Campillo is a journeyman pitcher that somehow ended up being one of the more dependable starters on the team. Both look good going into next season, but are they?

Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens was absolutely spectacular last season, and he missed out on the ROY because Soto and Votto had such good seasons. He went 13-10 (which should have been better) with a 3.68 ERA in 188.1 IP. With him being so young (22), you almost expect him to be that good or even better next season. I've been talking about him like he will be, but I've finally come to the realization (actually, I came to the realization a while ago, but I've been ignoring it) that he may not be. One reason is that he pitched those 188 innings last season after only having thrown 143.1 at most in years before. That's a 45 IP difference, which is substantially higher than the 30 IP rule. That can't be good. Another is his fairly high 3.35 BB/9, but to be fair, his minor-league totals were closer to the mid 2's. His 6.64 K/9 wasn't impressive, either (neither was the subsequent 1.99 K/BB). Now, all of this isn't to say that he's a bad pitcher and can't sustain what he did. He had a great season, and there are plenty of reasons to like him. His GB/FB rate of 1.94 is outstanding, and if he can keep coming close to that, he should stay very effective. His BABIP of .311 was also a bit high, but his HR/FB rate of 7.1 was a little low, thus evening things out some. Continuing to show his season wasn't a stroke of luck, Jurrjen's FIP was actually lower than his ERA (3.59). His stats show his season was legit, but that 45 IP difference nags at me. Will he be Fausto Carmona all over again?

Jorge Campillo
Luckily, Campillo's problem is not his increase in innings. He actually only threw .1 more innings more than he did the previous season. This past season, Campillo flew under the radar but was pretty good. He went 8-7 (and suffered the same lack of luck in his record as Jurrjens) with a 3.91 ERA in 158.2 IP (he started the year by relieving). Was he a fluke? Possibly, but his 4.00 FIP shows he wasn't lucky. His 6.09 K/9 isn't inspiring (although he might get some of the ugliest swings I have ever seen on his changeup), but his 2.16 BB/9 is awesome (or at least really good, good enough to make up for not striking out a lot of guys). What about other luck stats? Glad you asked. His HR/FB rate was 9.4% (normal) and his BABIP was .291 (normal). His GB/FB of .97 isn't really good, but he relies so much on his change-up and curveball that he's bound to get more flyballs. Campillo's season wasn't lucky, but can he sustain it anyway? I guess we don't know. He could be Buddy Carlyle and Jorge Sosa, or he could be a late-bloomer.

Will either pitcher be as good next year? Bill James thinks Jurrjens will regress a half run but Campillo should stay the same, and Marcel (I hear this has to do with a monkey, but I'm not entirely sure what is going on here) thinks Jurrjens will be as good while Campillo will regress the half run. They aren't much help. However, I think James is probably more accurate. Jurrjens will probably regress a little in second season as teams get another look at him, and Jurrjens' lack of a solid third pitch (his slider is okay, at least better than Chuck James' whatchamacallit) scares me a bit. Campillo does a lot of things right (good command, good secondary stuff) that make me think he'll be about what he was this season. I guess my main point is that we shouldn't be expecting these two pitchers to be what they were. We have plenty of examples showing how things could change. Jurrjens and Campillo don't have proven track records. Jurrjens just threw a lot more innings than he had previously and could be in line for injury and/or regression. Campillo could just show that he isn't that great of a pitcher, more in line with a guy pitching in the Mexican leagues. As a Braves fan, I hold out hope that Jurrjens can withstand the increase in workload and develop into a great pitcher and that Campillo can stay solid, but the realist in me makes me remind myself that neither are guaranteed.