Robertson or Willis for Lugo?

Will he ever be a useful major leaguer again?

Nick Cafardo at the Boston Globe mentioned a rumor about the Tigers trading Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis to Boston for Julio Lugo. It has been talked about before, but it seems more likely now. This would be bad contact swap that could be helpful to both team. If it isn't, then there's really no harm done. I remember someone asking why teams don't make more trades like this, but especially now, people want to get rid of those bad contracts. I have a gut feeling it would hold up this deal as well. The Tigers don't want to trade contracts. They want to get rid of them. But if it were to go through, who should Boston take in return, Robertson or Willis?

Nate Robertson
He'll be 31 for most of next season, and he still has 2 years and $17M ($7M, $10M) left on his contract. After a very good 2006 where he went 13-13 with a 3.86 ERA, Robertson has struggled all the way to a 6.35 ERA this past season. However, there are indications that he isn't that bad. His BABIP was a very high .343 (Boston's defense should be much better than Detroit's), his LOB% was 64.3 (low), and his GB/FB was a respectable 1.21. His K/9 didn't go down much, and his BB/9 wasn't much bigger than usual. Still, his FIP has always sat around 4.50 to 4.70, and in his 2006 season, it was 4.72. Things won't get any easier in the AL East. If he goes to Boston, he likely won't be 6.35 bad, but he won't be anywhere near 4.

Dontrelle Willis
He'll be 27 years old next season (four years younger than Robertson), but he's still owed $22M over the next two years ($10M, $12M). After a Cy Young-like 2005 where he went 22-10 with a 2.83 ERA, Willis regressed his next season but has plummeted the past two seasons all the way to a 9.38 ERA this past season. His walks were the main culprit (a BB/9 of 13.13) as he just couldn't gain any control, but he did get better in the minors (a BB/9 of less than 4.50, which still isn't good). His K/9 hasn't gone down, and it actually went up last season, but his GB/FB really went down from a good 1.44 to a poor .94. If he is going to be successful in Boston, his groundball rate has to go back down. What's even weirder about Willis' season is his BABIP of .220 (.220!), but his LOB% of 59.9 evened things back out. If Boston takes him, they get a younger pitcher who may have more upside (if he can regain his command), but things won't be any easier for a guy who has his good seasons in the NL and is now going to the AL East.

So who do you pick? Do you take the guy who has been fairly consistent but not consistently good? Or do you take the guy who has been Cy Young material but completely collapsed in a Rick Ankiel/Mark Wohlers manner? Lugo is owed $18M over the next two seasons ($18M), so the Tigers might be more inclined to give up Willis. Does it really hurt to just keep Lugo on the bench? I realize no one likes a $9M bench guy, but do you want a $10M minor league pitcher? Isn't Lugo the definition of sunk cost? But then again, Willis or Robertson would take the place of that sunk cost, and you get at least an attempt at pitching depth. Okay, so I'd take Robertson out of consistency's sake. Boston's defense will make him look better, so his ERA might go down to about 4.30, which would be respectable for a fifth starter. I just don't think Willis is going to be that good (although he won't be 9.28 bad, either). You know what the Red Sox should do is make the Lugo/Robertson trade and then trade a mid-level guy for Bobby Crosby to be the back-up for only $5.25M. Now, we're all happy.