Peavy ... Again

Let's see how things shape up this week, but I doubt anything happens except for ground work.

It's time for the GM meetings, and Peavy is obviously a hot topic around the game. Why not? He's 27 years old and a former Cy Young Award winner. Name one team who wouldn't want him (discounting the asking price). However, he's been "on the market" for around a month now, so we've had a little time to digest the situation and see where things are headed.

The one thing people do seem sure about is that he will be traded. I'm not so sure. He's kind of at a low point (for him) of trade value. His numbers weren't as good as previous years, and he had an elbow injury. Trading him now is selling low. Towers could very easily keep him if he doesn't get the right trade. It's not like he'll be a rental in July, and his contract will still be below market value. There's really no reason for Towers to trade him now unless he gets what he wants. If Peavy can come back strong and have an ERA around 3 by the All-Star Game, teams will line up for him if the Padres are out of it. Then, he can get more, especially because the shorter time on the contract lessens the injury risk while still being long enough to where he is not a rental. Peavy's peak time may very well be at next year's All-Star break instead of right now. Teams will be more desperate as there won't be any free-agents and injuries will have taken their toll. Other than having a slightly unhappy player, there's almost no reason to trade him right now. Don't get me wrong. I want Peavy, really bad, but from Tower's point of view, I don't have to trade him right now. Getting Hanson from Atlanta might be more difficult considering he'll probably be in Atlanta by then, but Scott Diamond and others might break through like Hanson did this past season. Wren might be more willing to talk then. But let's consider that he does trade Peavy. With what we know, where will he end up?

Braves
They are still the front-runners, but that's a useless argument if they can't come to terms. Hanson seems to be off-limits, which is fine with me, but it seems as though Johnson and Escobar can be had. Escobar makes more sense for the Padres if they are really looking to rebuild. If Escobar is the center of the deal, then the Padres won't be able to ask for too much more considering Escobar has been so successful so far. I imagine the Braves are almost out of it at this point, however. They are desperate for starting pitching and have the prospects to work a deal. The fact that they haven't yet makes me wonder if they will. The Braves may wait until after free-agent signings to see who they can get. They don't have to make the deal now, either.

Cubs
They've been a popular mention, especially now that Dempster will test the market. While some say they don't match up, I think they do. It seems as though the Cubs do not want him all that much, and the Padres need a center fielder. What about adding Mike Fontenot? He hit .304/.395/.514 in 243 at-bats this past season. He'll be under control for four more years, and the Cubs don't seem to need him with DeRosa still there. After that, the Cubs could add an arm or two to the deal. Towers mentioned that he doesn't have to get pitching back. He'd prefer it, but it's not necessary. If the Braves won't give up Hanson, then the Padres might like what the Cubs could offer.

Dodgers
They certainly have the young pitching to get the deal done, but I'm not sure the Dodgers really want to pay such a steep price. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw have been mentioned, but I'm sure Billingsley can't be available. Kershaw is a maybe, but I'm not sure they would really want to trade him away. The more plausible targets could be James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and Jonathan Meloan. Two of them could probably get the job done, which makes the Dodgers very plausible in this discussion.

Cardinals
They've essentially said they aren't interested considering it would take at least Colby Rasmus to get Peavy, and the Cardinals really don't have much else to give up.

Astros
They just don't have the prospects to get it done.

Rangers
I'm sure they'd love Peavy, but Peavy doesn't love them or their ballpark.

Yankees
They have what the Padres want in Hughes, and I'm sure one of Cabrera and Cano would get the job done. However, nothing has happened which tells me that either the Padres really don't like any or some of those players or the Yankees aren't willing to part with them or Peavy said no the Bronx. The Yankees might be taking the wait-and-see approach the Braves are probably taking. If CC, Lowe, and Burnett end up elsewhere, Peavy looks more attractive, much more attractive. But it remains to be seen if Peavy wants to go there. I'm sure guaranteeing the option or just adding money on to existing salaries would do the trick.

Red Sox
They definitely have the prospects, but the playoff run delayed their ability to show interest and get into any meaningful talks. These meetings might see an improved relationship between Towers and Epstein. There's a definite match, but Epstein still has to decide whether or not he wants to give up Buchholz, who os doing well in Arizona. Then again, he never has had trouble against minor leaguers. In any matter, the Red Sox have more pitching, but are they willing to give it up?

When looking at this, I see the Cubs as the front-runners with the Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers in a tie for a close second. The thing is, I still think Towers should hold onto him to see what desperation will do to teams at the next All-Star Break.