Free-Agent Relievers

Free-agency is a roll of the dice, but more often than not on relievers, this is the result.

When I saw the article about the Cardinals' strategy to pursue relief help first this off-season, I almost flipped. I realize that their bullpen wasn't very good last year (20th of all 30), but spending money on free-agent relievers has to be the worst free-agent strategy possible. The only ones worth going for are the really good ones who are reliable, but those are usually the ones who are going to cost $10M per season, and there's no reason to spend $10M on a guy who pitches 70 innings.

First off, the Cardinals don't have all that much money anyway, but they desperately need middle-infielders or starting pitchers, who are going to influence a team more than any reliever. If you get some good middle infielders, they can help make your relievers a little better by taking away hits and adding some on offensively. Spend the money on Furcal and Lopez, and use whatever's left on relievers. Free-agent relievers are luxuries, not necessities.

I almost wrote something the other day when the Yankees signed Marte to 3 year contract. I would have rather taken the option and gotten rid of him after next year. Marte has been pretty consistent over his career, but that's pretty unusual. I would say he would be worth a couple million, but $12M over 3 years? Then again, that's like $1M for the Yankees.

As for the other big names:

Juan Cruz- 3.22, 3.98, 6.08, 2.75, 7.44, 4.18, 3.10, 2.61 (3.74)
Those are his ERA's over his career. Do you like those blips? Are you really willing to bet that he won't have another one? Bill James (in parentheses) seems to think there will be a serious regression. Do you want him pitching in the ninth for you?

Jeremy Affeldt- 4.64, 3.93, 4.95, 5.26, 6.20, 3.51, 3.33 (4.39)
Everyone seems to think he's "blossoming", but Bill James seems to think he's about to tank it.

Will Ohman- 7.72, 2.91, 4.13, 4.95, 3.68 (3.69)
For whatever reason, James thinks Ohman can repeat his performance next year. Considering his career numbers, I wouldn't count on it.

Joe Beimel- 5.23, 4.64, 5.05, 2.96, 3.88, 2.02 (3.98)
Up, down, up, down, and you still want to give him $3M next year hoping he can be what he was this year?

Russ Springer- 5.29, 4.66, 4.23, 4.10, 3.42, 5.08, 4.73, 3.47, 2.18, 2.32 (3.22)
Bill James is willing to guess that Russ Springer is going to be good next year, but he's as volatile as the others.

Brandon Lyon- 4.12, 6.44, 3.89, 2.68, 4.70 (4.16)
He's getting out of Bank One ... Bank of America ... Oh, Chase Bank Park, so he should get better, but James doesn't think he's going to get a lot better.

Dennys Reyes- 3.80, 4.54, 4.92, 5.33, 4.75, 5.15, 0.89, 3.99, 2.33 (4.16)
0.89? Really? Wow, but he didn't really follow it up realy well.

After looking at just some of the middle relievers about to make some serious dough, you can see how volatile they are. It's not that their talent level drops. It's that they pitch so few innings. A starter can have a bad 50 innings, but then, he can make up for it over the next 50. A reliever can't. You can get his good 50 or his bad. You don't know. It's not worth paying $3M to get an unknown. James, as smart as he is, seems to be hedging his bets with his predictions. I can't blame him. Shoot for the middle and see what sticks. It's essentially what's going to happen anyway.

Now, what about closers? They are better pitchers, which is why they've been put at the spot they have. That's why they get more innings. It's why they make $10+M in free-agency. That's still too much when you could spend that to either add a really good shortstop or a decent starting pitcher.