I've seen this question posed a million times, and I've heard dozens of answers. At first, most considered that he would play for the Yankees or Orioles. Then, the Mets' name popped in. Now, it seems as though the Braves are gaining some steam. Other teams, like the Angels, are also choices in this discussion. So who is it going to be? Then, as Peter Gammons blogged, he could be traded.
First, let's assume he won't be traded for the reasons I'll name below. (Contracts in parentheses are from Cot's Baseball Contracts, which is on the blogroll to the right. Amazing site. Amazing.)
Braves- Most people think the Braves won't have the money to keep him, but I disagree whole-heartedly. Tom Glavine ($8 million), Mike Hampton ($15 million), John Smoltz ($12 million), and Mark Kotsay ($2.5 million) will be off the books, giving the Braves $37.5 million to spend. Even if the arbitration guys (Francoeur, McCann-who has a contract that will begin to escalate, etc.) cost $10 million, that leaves around $27 million. Teixeira will probably cost around $23 million. So, the Braves have enough money, but now the question becomes will they use it. Well, the Braves have always let free-agents go when they cost too much (Andruw Jones, J.D. Drew, Rafael Furcal), so that doesn't bode well. However, the biggest thing is the no-trade clause. The Braves have never given anyone a no-trade clause, but with Wren, no one really knows. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. Most don't think so, and I think Schuerholz's training will tell him not to. That would be the deal breaker as Boras really like no-trade clauses.
Yankees- They have the money and willingness to give no-trade clauses. Jason Giambi ($21 million), Bobby Abreu ($16 million), and Mike Mussina ($11 million) are all gone, giving them $48 million to play with (enough for Sabathia, too?). In other words, they have a lot of money, but we all knew that. In my mind, they are the front-runner.
Orioles- Baltimore is Teixeira's hometown, so this team is logical. Jay Payton ($5 million) and Kevin Millar ($2.5 million) will come off the books, but I think Peter Angelos will spend the money to bring such a big guy to Baltimore. In 2007, the payroll was at $93.5 million, but this year it is only at $67.2 million. Therefore, we know he can spend more. The question becomes the no-trade clause, but again, I think Angelos will actually approve that. However, because Teixeira is a true Boras man, he'll take the most money and benefits which equals the Yankees, not the Orioles. Maybe he becomes nostalgic, but he can become nostalgic when he's 40.
Mets- Really? Why the hell would he choose the bad New York team over the good one? Sure, Carlos Delgado ($16 million), Moises Alou ($7.5 million), and Orlando Hernandez ($6.5 million) come off the books, and that could increase with Pedro Martinez ($11 million) if he chooses to go or retire. But again, why go to the Mets? Chances are the Yankees will give Tex more than the Mets and any benefits the Mets can, so I seriously doubt they have a chance. Either Tex wants money (the Yankees), his hometown (the Orioles), to be comfortable (the Braves), or he wants back in the AL West (the Angels).
Angels- Well, I only see this if Tex really wants to go back to the AL West, but I doubt he really wants to do that. He toiled in enough obscurity in Texas, so I doubt he'll want to go farther west to the red-headed-step-child-Los-Angeles-team-who-is-really-better-than-the-actual-one. Anyway, Jon Garland ($12 million), Francisco Rodriguez ($10 million), and Darren Oliver ($2 million) will come off the books, but Garland and Rodriguez might come back which would leave the Angels strapped for cash. Honestly, I really doubt he ends up here.
Okay, now, will he be traded? If the Braves fall rapidly out of contention, then they have to think about it, but they have to get more back than two first-round picks that they would get from offering Tex arbitration. I think they could get that, but the earlier they trade him, the more likely they'll get a big bounty. However, the Braves are good enough that they'll stay frustratingly in contention but not good enough to actually win anything. Therefore, they'll refuse to trade him. I don't know which to choose. I have this overwhelming sense that he won't be back, so I would like to get something back that I might see help in the next season or two instead of two first-round picks that I won't see for another four, at least. If we're in contention, I would like to see him stay because he could help us win the World Series. What to do? Well, if we're 10 back by July 1st, then trade him. If we're 10 back by the All-Star break, trade him. If we're 8 back by July 31st, trade him. Otherwise, keep him.
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