Rich Harden is the most intriguing and tantalizing pitcher available in the trade market according to Peter Gammons. One on hand, he's the best pitcher in the AL, is 26 years old, and is a rotation-changer. On the other hand, he is injury prone, and his 53.1 IP this season are almost more than the past two seasons combined. The previous season, he only pitched a little more than 120 IP. Yet, his talent and potential are so tantalizing that he is hard to resist. At $4.5 million this season and $7 million next season, he is really affordable, especially with his talent. So, do you pick him up or not?
On the side of steering clear, he is injury-prone. I just told you how many innings he's thrown in the past three seasons, and with an injury this season, there's no reason to believe he'll be healthy. $7 million is not a lot of money for an ace, but it's a lot for a guy who sits on the DL for the entire season. You could spend that money on someone with a better medical history. Next, Billy Beane is going to want a lot for him. He's a good pitcher under control for at least another season, and he doesn't have to give him up for that very reason. It will likely take three really good to good prospects to get him. He may not be worth betting the farm on.
On the side of taking the risk, he is a young ace. Let's say that again. He's a young ace. You don't find those on trees or in many farm systems. His career K/9 is 8.65, K/BB is 2.22, BAA is .225, and ERA is 3.49. Everything here screams ace. And, he's affordable, and with his contract expiring at the end of next season, he isn't the next Mike Hampton with a long, money-laden contract. If he gets hurt, you can let him go. About the prospects, they're just prospects. I wouldn't give a No. 1 or No. 2 prospect for him unless that was all Beane wanted. Remember the Tim Hudson trade? None of those prospects worked out. With Harden, you know you're getting a lot of talent at a premium position for a couple unknown talents. The unknown is how much he'll pitch.
So what to do? Honestly, I take the chance, especially if I'm a team like the Braves who need a young ace so desperately. If you get him and get to the playoffs to the World Series, next year is a bonus. Then, you'll have a chance at signing him to a long-term contract at age 28. With him, you can use his medical history to keep his cost down a few million dollars. Hell, maybe he'll sign a team-friendly contract (hahahahaha ... sorry). The Braves need a young ace to anchor the staff, and they have enough prospects to make things work without giving up too much. Other teams in similar conditions to take the risk are the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Cubs, and Dodgers.
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