22 November 2008
Saturday Sagas
- Junichi Tazawa threw a complete-game shutout last night for his Japanese team. His price tag just went up a tick.
- The economy is causing problems with getting naming rights for a new stadium. No, not any of the ones in New York.
- I spoke too soon. Citi Field is kind of a crappy name anyway.
- The Marlins can begin building a new stadium, but when will it be ready? Considering the other problems people are having, Dolphin Stadium is looking pretty good right now.
- Lou Pinella opens up about some things going on with the Cubs. Is he really going to let Gregg close over Marmol?
- The D-Backs offered Ramon Vazquez a contract. There are other options for second base, but he's cheap and effective enough.
- Joe Beimel's days in LA are over. Kuo and Stults make Beimel expendable. Good decision.
- What happens if the Yankees whiff on the free-agent pitchers? It's a legitimate possibility regardless of the Yankees' money.
21 November 2008
Things I Love about Baseball
Baseball is my favorite sport. Football comes second, but I don't obsess about it nearly as much as I do about baseball. If the Braves lose, it's not a good idea to pick a fight with me later that night. If the Cowboys lose, I'll get over it in about 5 seconds. I continuously look at baseball sights deep into the winter, but I rarely even look at football sites even during the season. I'd much rather watch the World Series than the Super Bowl (the commercials have really sucked lately). Basketball is a distant third. Golf probably comes after that, but not by much. I easily play more golf, and it's debatable that I watch more basketball. Bowling comes next, but that's because I've done it since I was like two. But what is it that makes baseball so special? Why is it that good?
(not necessarily in any particular order)
1) It's the hardest game to play. Try and hit a 90 mph fastball, a sharp curve, or a low-and-away slider. It's not easy. Now, try throwing one. It's not a whole lot easier. I can beef up and block. I can throw a spiral. I can shoot a three. To play the game, you must have the right mixture of athleticism, reactions, and effort. It means failing 70% of the time. It means throwing 100 balls in order to get 21 outs and still not be done.
2) You can relate to the players. In basketball, you have to be 6'3" (no Pedroias, unless you count Mugsy), and in football, you have to be ripped and 250 lbs. while running at least a 4.5 40 yard dash. In baseball, you have Greg Maddux, CC Sabathia, David Wells, and David Ortiz. It's not like they aren't good athletes. They are. They just look like us. They don't look so impossible to be. We can't all be 6'7". We can't all be ripped out of our minds. But we can be Greg Maddux, as difficult as that is.
3) Jumbo Pretzels. A well-made Jumbo Pretzel may be the best thing on Earth. It has to be soft but not squishy and underdone. It has to have salt but not to the extent you wonder if you bought a piece of bread or a mine somewhere in Latin America. This point isn't so much about a pretzel as it is about concession stand food. It's not four-star cuisine. It's not good for you. It's over-priced. But it just feels right. It's sitting outside on a warm summer's day grabbing a hot dog that no one should know how it was made and a soft drink (or beer if you prefer) that is too large to allow you to make it through the sixth inning without having to run to the bathroom to pee in a restroom that you wonder whether or not it would be a better idea to hold it and risk sepsis. Other sports have concession foods, but it's not the same inside watching guys who are in much better shape or outside freezing your tush off.
4) Turnstiles. We've all had those moments with the darn things. You try to walk through it, and it hasn't been WD-40'd in like a year so you semi-fall through. You don't quite fall, but you left in this incredibly awkward position, not falling but only because the turnstile refuses to let you. Instead, everyone watches, wanting to laugh but understanding the feeling. It doesn't matter how coordinated you are. They will get you. And I love them.
5) How perfect is a baseball field? You have to cut the grass correctly and sometimes in a nice pattern. You have to rake the infield. You have to brush off the plate. You have to chalk the lines. It's a lot of work, and if you've ever done it, you fully appreciate the groundscrew for the underappreciated work they do. It's like every game is a brand new game. You see the divots in football fields, and honestly, I could mow a rectangular field. A basketball court needs to be waxed and broomed, but it doesn't need that much maintenance. And then, the smells. Who doesn't like freshly-cut grass? I have allergies and still love it. A perfectly groomed baseball field is a wonderful thing.
6) The strategy. All sports have strategy. But understanding pitches, counts, situations, matchups, and all that jazz keeps you into it. If you don't understand, then baseball is going to be boring, but if you do understand, the game goes by too fast, especially in the late innings. In between pitches, you wonder what he'll throw, will the runner steal, is the defense in the right spot, etc., and before you know it, the dumb pitcher has thrown it. In football, there's a play clock. In basketball, there's a shot clock. But there's not such thing in baseball. It's a grudge match between the hitter and pitcher. Are you ready to hit this? I can stand out here all day. I'll make you wait. It's wonderful.
7) Keeping score. You can't do this in other sports. There's too much to watch. Who went where, who bit on the fake, who missed an assignment. In baseball, you know where the action is. You then keep a record of it on a sheet of paper with a bunch of diamonds that continually remind you that you're in your favorite place watching your favorite sport. Where did the guy hit it last? Right field -- F9. Try and remember where the shooter has made or missed his shots. Oh, and the numbers. 1 for pitcher, 2 for catcher, etc. It gives the game a nice simplicity and elegance. How good is it to say a 4-6-3 double-play and have everyone perfectly understand?
8) The grace. Baseball is one of the most poetic sports. I imagine it has the most poems written about it. You can write about it in so many ways. How graceful is Griffey's swing! How well did that second baseman turn that double-play! Heck, even the throw around after an out is graceful when done well. What else? The curves of a pitch, the look of the field, a nice slide.
9) The 162 game schedule. I know we all think it's long, but it's 162 games of our favorite sport. It's played every night. We don't have to wait all week for it. It's not over in less than four months. It's like a good novel you don't want to end. It's like watching The Dark Knight and hoping there's another bad guy so it will keep going. It's long and it sucks when our team does, but it makes it all the sweeter when your team makes it (unless you're a Royals, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles fan -- what wonderful people). It's the ultimate example of weeding out the good from the bad.
10) It's the first sport you can teach your kids. Football is kind of difficult when youre kid can't throw a ball most adults can't throw correctly and isn't big enough to do the thing football needs -- hit someone. Basketball's kind of hard considering kids can't really throw a ball up 8 or 10 feet, and dribbling a ball is something I still can't do. But baseball. If he/she can't throw far, move up. Make the field smaller. Lob the ball up and let them swing and hit it. Put it on a tee. Let them furiously whack the rubber part and the ball simply fall straight down. Watch them demand for it to be put back. They know they can hit that stupid, suspended ball. They also know they can't launch a basketball that high.
11) The different fields. Basketball courts and football fields can have different colors, but they're all the same. Nothing really makes one unique from another. Sure, the architecture is different, but it all leads a rectangle with lines. Baseball fields have quirks. Weird juts in the wall. Ivy. Big or small foul territories. Tall or short grass. Left field walls that are farther away than the one in right. Pools in the stands. The Green Monster. Grass areas in the stands. Bullpens in foul territory or behind the fence. You never know what you'll find. Use your imagination. It can happen. Put a darn hill in center if you want. Want to put one behind home plate? Do it. A baseball field is a blank slate, not a rectangle waiting to be filled in.
12) The trade deadline. We all know that much doesn't usually happen there, but nothing happens in basketball or football. It doesn't really make sense to make a trade during the season. You have to learn new plays and style of play. In baseball, you switch teams and keep doing what you were doing. Things can change. You can improve.
13) Wind-ups and batting stances. Basketball has the right shot technique, the right way to dribble. Football has the right blocking technique, the right way to hold the ball, the right way to throw it. Baseball has all sorts of weird things. Want to be normal and go through a textbook wind-up? Take a look at Greg Maddux. Want to be different? Try Hideo Nomo, Dontrelle Willis, Chad Bradford. Want to have a normal stance? Emulate Kelly Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira. Want to be different? Watch Julio Franco, Craig Counsell, Tony Batista, Jeff Bagwell. Go nuts. It's hard to find two guys who do the same thing. The other sports demand you all do it the same.
14) There's no time-limit. Did you ever think it wasn't fair that the other team won because they had the ball for longer? Did you see a guy shoot the ball .01 secconds after the buzzer sounds and watch his shot nullified? That doesn't happen. Each team gets up 9 times. They always get 3 outs. I don't have to stop my rally because the stupid 15 minutes are up.
15) Stats. This is the sport of stats. You can have so many stats. Use them to make your argument. I'm sure you can find something as evidence. None of them are truly perfect, but we use them like they are. We argue over their value. We try to make them better, more encompassing, more perfect. What is the right combination to judge worth? Heck, they even influence how teams play, how managers manage. How irrational is the save? It's a useful stat that means something, but we've created a whole position to perfect it. We've then created other roles to ensure it happens. We save a guy for that particular purpose even when the manager knows it will cost more money to have this guy save a four-run lead with a man on second and have it count the same as coming in to save a one-run lead with a man on third. We let it get that way. It's amazing. We can know everything and nothing at all.
16) The sounds. How cool is it to hear the crack of a bat, the pop of a mitt. How weird is a tackle or the clank of a shot off the rim. There are no horns. Just cheers, music, cracks, pops, and Bobby Cox getting ejected again.
17 ) Contracts. Love or hate free-agency, it's fair. A guy has to earn his money. He makes the league-minimum for three years. If he's proven himself, he gets to make some more money while staying on the same time for another three years. After that, he gets to go on the market and make up for the money he didn't make all those other years. You can complain about free-agency being too expensive, but you're really just paying the extra money the guy didn't get earlier. Basketball and football players get all this money before they've even done anything. Also, contracts are guaranteed. You can't just dump a guy to get rid of his contract. It makes you try to make better decisions.
18) The mid-year draft. Everyone else has theirs in the off-season, but baseball has theirs during the season. There isn't a lot of hoopla over it like the others, but it's just so cool how the college game ends at such a different time. One day you're playing in the College World Series. The next you're in a major-league organization (that is unless your agent is Scott Boras).
19) Scott Boras. Is there a guy in other sports that is so hated yet so respected. We want to call him the devil. He makes our team pay through the nose for his players. He isn't doing anything wrong. He's doing his job. If an owner and GM do what they can for their team, why shouldn't he do his best to do what he can for his player. Yet, we hate him. Our collective hatred is centered on him. And he doesn't care.
Man, I want baseball to start again.
(not necessarily in any particular order)
1) It's the hardest game to play. Try and hit a 90 mph fastball, a sharp curve, or a low-and-away slider. It's not easy. Now, try throwing one. It's not a whole lot easier. I can beef up and block. I can throw a spiral. I can shoot a three. To play the game, you must have the right mixture of athleticism, reactions, and effort. It means failing 70% of the time. It means throwing 100 balls in order to get 21 outs and still not be done.
2) You can relate to the players. In basketball, you have to be 6'3" (no Pedroias, unless you count Mugsy), and in football, you have to be ripped and 250 lbs. while running at least a 4.5 40 yard dash. In baseball, you have Greg Maddux, CC Sabathia, David Wells, and David Ortiz. It's not like they aren't good athletes. They are. They just look like us. They don't look so impossible to be. We can't all be 6'7". We can't all be ripped out of our minds. But we can be Greg Maddux, as difficult as that is.
3) Jumbo Pretzels. A well-made Jumbo Pretzel may be the best thing on Earth. It has to be soft but not squishy and underdone. It has to have salt but not to the extent you wonder if you bought a piece of bread or a mine somewhere in Latin America. This point isn't so much about a pretzel as it is about concession stand food. It's not four-star cuisine. It's not good for you. It's over-priced. But it just feels right. It's sitting outside on a warm summer's day grabbing a hot dog that no one should know how it was made and a soft drink (or beer if you prefer) that is too large to allow you to make it through the sixth inning without having to run to the bathroom to pee in a restroom that you wonder whether or not it would be a better idea to hold it and risk sepsis. Other sports have concession foods, but it's not the same inside watching guys who are in much better shape or outside freezing your tush off.
4) Turnstiles. We've all had those moments with the darn things. You try to walk through it, and it hasn't been WD-40'd in like a year so you semi-fall through. You don't quite fall, but you left in this incredibly awkward position, not falling but only because the turnstile refuses to let you. Instead, everyone watches, wanting to laugh but understanding the feeling. It doesn't matter how coordinated you are. They will get you. And I love them.
5) How perfect is a baseball field? You have to cut the grass correctly and sometimes in a nice pattern. You have to rake the infield. You have to brush off the plate. You have to chalk the lines. It's a lot of work, and if you've ever done it, you fully appreciate the groundscrew for the underappreciated work they do. It's like every game is a brand new game. You see the divots in football fields, and honestly, I could mow a rectangular field. A basketball court needs to be waxed and broomed, but it doesn't need that much maintenance. And then, the smells. Who doesn't like freshly-cut grass? I have allergies and still love it. A perfectly groomed baseball field is a wonderful thing.
6) The strategy. All sports have strategy. But understanding pitches, counts, situations, matchups, and all that jazz keeps you into it. If you don't understand, then baseball is going to be boring, but if you do understand, the game goes by too fast, especially in the late innings. In between pitches, you wonder what he'll throw, will the runner steal, is the defense in the right spot, etc., and before you know it, the dumb pitcher has thrown it. In football, there's a play clock. In basketball, there's a shot clock. But there's not such thing in baseball. It's a grudge match between the hitter and pitcher. Are you ready to hit this? I can stand out here all day. I'll make you wait. It's wonderful.
7) Keeping score. You can't do this in other sports. There's too much to watch. Who went where, who bit on the fake, who missed an assignment. In baseball, you know where the action is. You then keep a record of it on a sheet of paper with a bunch of diamonds that continually remind you that you're in your favorite place watching your favorite sport. Where did the guy hit it last? Right field -- F9. Try and remember where the shooter has made or missed his shots. Oh, and the numbers. 1 for pitcher, 2 for catcher, etc. It gives the game a nice simplicity and elegance. How good is it to say a 4-6-3 double-play and have everyone perfectly understand?
8) The grace. Baseball is one of the most poetic sports. I imagine it has the most poems written about it. You can write about it in so many ways. How graceful is Griffey's swing! How well did that second baseman turn that double-play! Heck, even the throw around after an out is graceful when done well. What else? The curves of a pitch, the look of the field, a nice slide.
9) The 162 game schedule. I know we all think it's long, but it's 162 games of our favorite sport. It's played every night. We don't have to wait all week for it. It's not over in less than four months. It's like a good novel you don't want to end. It's like watching The Dark Knight and hoping there's another bad guy so it will keep going. It's long and it sucks when our team does, but it makes it all the sweeter when your team makes it (unless you're a Royals, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles fan -- what wonderful people). It's the ultimate example of weeding out the good from the bad.
10) It's the first sport you can teach your kids. Football is kind of difficult when youre kid can't throw a ball most adults can't throw correctly and isn't big enough to do the thing football needs -- hit someone. Basketball's kind of hard considering kids can't really throw a ball up 8 or 10 feet, and dribbling a ball is something I still can't do. But baseball. If he/she can't throw far, move up. Make the field smaller. Lob the ball up and let them swing and hit it. Put it on a tee. Let them furiously whack the rubber part and the ball simply fall straight down. Watch them demand for it to be put back. They know they can hit that stupid, suspended ball. They also know they can't launch a basketball that high.
11) The different fields. Basketball courts and football fields can have different colors, but they're all the same. Nothing really makes one unique from another. Sure, the architecture is different, but it all leads a rectangle with lines. Baseball fields have quirks. Weird juts in the wall. Ivy. Big or small foul territories. Tall or short grass. Left field walls that are farther away than the one in right. Pools in the stands. The Green Monster. Grass areas in the stands. Bullpens in foul territory or behind the fence. You never know what you'll find. Use your imagination. It can happen. Put a darn hill in center if you want. Want to put one behind home plate? Do it. A baseball field is a blank slate, not a rectangle waiting to be filled in.
12) The trade deadline. We all know that much doesn't usually happen there, but nothing happens in basketball or football. It doesn't really make sense to make a trade during the season. You have to learn new plays and style of play. In baseball, you switch teams and keep doing what you were doing. Things can change. You can improve.
13) Wind-ups and batting stances. Basketball has the right shot technique, the right way to dribble. Football has the right blocking technique, the right way to hold the ball, the right way to throw it. Baseball has all sorts of weird things. Want to be normal and go through a textbook wind-up? Take a look at Greg Maddux. Want to be different? Try Hideo Nomo, Dontrelle Willis, Chad Bradford. Want to have a normal stance? Emulate Kelly Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira. Want to be different? Watch Julio Franco, Craig Counsell, Tony Batista, Jeff Bagwell. Go nuts. It's hard to find two guys who do the same thing. The other sports demand you all do it the same.
14) There's no time-limit. Did you ever think it wasn't fair that the other team won because they had the ball for longer? Did you see a guy shoot the ball .01 secconds after the buzzer sounds and watch his shot nullified? That doesn't happen. Each team gets up 9 times. They always get 3 outs. I don't have to stop my rally because the stupid 15 minutes are up.
15) Stats. This is the sport of stats. You can have so many stats. Use them to make your argument. I'm sure you can find something as evidence. None of them are truly perfect, but we use them like they are. We argue over their value. We try to make them better, more encompassing, more perfect. What is the right combination to judge worth? Heck, they even influence how teams play, how managers manage. How irrational is the save? It's a useful stat that means something, but we've created a whole position to perfect it. We've then created other roles to ensure it happens. We save a guy for that particular purpose even when the manager knows it will cost more money to have this guy save a four-run lead with a man on second and have it count the same as coming in to save a one-run lead with a man on third. We let it get that way. It's amazing. We can know everything and nothing at all.
16) The sounds. How cool is it to hear the crack of a bat, the pop of a mitt. How weird is a tackle or the clank of a shot off the rim. There are no horns. Just cheers, music, cracks, pops, and Bobby Cox getting ejected again.
17 ) Contracts. Love or hate free-agency, it's fair. A guy has to earn his money. He makes the league-minimum for three years. If he's proven himself, he gets to make some more money while staying on the same time for another three years. After that, he gets to go on the market and make up for the money he didn't make all those other years. You can complain about free-agency being too expensive, but you're really just paying the extra money the guy didn't get earlier. Basketball and football players get all this money before they've even done anything. Also, contracts are guaranteed. You can't just dump a guy to get rid of his contract. It makes you try to make better decisions.
18) The mid-year draft. Everyone else has theirs in the off-season, but baseball has theirs during the season. There isn't a lot of hoopla over it like the others, but it's just so cool how the college game ends at such a different time. One day you're playing in the College World Series. The next you're in a major-league organization (that is unless your agent is Scott Boras).
19) Scott Boras. Is there a guy in other sports that is so hated yet so respected. We want to call him the devil. He makes our team pay through the nose for his players. He isn't doing anything wrong. He's doing his job. If an owner and GM do what they can for their team, why shouldn't he do his best to do what he can for his player. Yet, we hate him. Our collective hatred is centered on him. And he doesn't care.
Man, I want baseball to start again.
Friday Fancies
Thanksgiving is my second-favorite holiday behind Christmas. Short, sweet, to the point and no annoying music that's played a month and a half in advance.- Mike Mussina knew all season he would retire. So why did it take almost two months to say so?
- The Red Sox really, really want Teixeira. But, the Yankees lose the contest for CC and throw a crap load of cash at a guy who will really take the highest bid.
- Cesar Izturis is the guy for the Orioles. He would probably be one the underrated signings that actually pans out really well.
- The White Sox have another Cuban. We also find out Fidel Castro is a body-snatcher and has taken over Kenny Williams. So that's where he's been.
- This is why you don't spend $4M on a reliever. The Royals put a Class-A reliever on their 40-man roster because he has a big fastball and good breaking ball/split. He could be in the majors next season. Who will have the better ERA, him or Juan Cruz?
- A's owner Lew Wolff is nuts. Thank you for that new insight.
- Kameron Loe became the second major-leaguer sold to Japan in the past week. Sayonara.
- This is another reason not to spend $4M on a reliever. Who will have the better ERA next season, O'Flaherty or Arthur Rhodes? Waiver claims!
- Luis Castillo is driven to secure a second chance in New York. The cabbie takes a left turn and leaves him on the New Jersey Turnpike.
- The Phillies traded a former first-rounder for another and may have gotten their right-handed Geoff Jenkins platoon partner.
- Doh! The streak has ended. I'm sure it will get started again soon.
- Another reason not to spend $4M on a reliever. Who doesn't have a young reliever with a big arm or at least good stuff with maybe poor command?
- It will be official. No weather can officially end a postseason game. Whew!
- Princeton does have more than just for average genius.
- Things get personal, even on blogs.
- Some interesting guys to watch out for next season. I'm still not completely sold on Prado.
- Going once ... the deadline for the sale of the Cubs is December 1st.
- Remember, remember the offseason of 2000.
- Dave lost. Stupid politics blogs.
- Wonder what the Rule 5 draft is about? I do, too, but no longer.
- A list of Rule-5 candidates with value. Man, USS Mariner is good. Three links this morning. And Dave didn't win. What a shame.
20 November 2008
Thursday Thoughts
Sorry about the nothing on here yesterday. After being told to read 60 pages over the weekend, my Spanish teacher decided to give us 220 pages to read in two days, so I spent about 4-5 hours trying to finish a Spanish book and get the jist of it. That wasn't fun, but this is.
- Mike Mussina is retiring. I know a lot of people want him back for another year or two, but I really believe the man just made the best decision of his life, other than you know ... deciding to play baseball and become obscenely rich.
- Coco was traded for RamRam. Again, I ask ???? Why did either team do this? I guess I can see Boston getting a reliever and losing a contract they didn't need, but a position player for a reliever? On the Royals side, I'm really questioning Moore's sanity. Maybe there's a master plan, but I, unfortunately for Royals fans, do not believe there is one.
- Moore's reason for Coco trade: it gives them more flexibility. So does Jacobs.
- Should baseball announce its awards earlier. I agree with this guy.
- Would you trade Carlos Gomez or Denard Span? Personally, keep both and watch every fly ball caught that enters their domain, especially with the statue in left.
- The A's are still in on Furcal, and the owner makes a dumb suggestion about improving the playoffs. Leave it alone folks.
- Another Angels prospect was released from Winter Ball. Fortunately, this time it was planned.
- The new Mariners' manager thinks the team has a lot of good, young talent. You shouldn't start your tenure by lying.
- Dave O'Brien can't stop talking about Peavy, and therefore, I can't stop thinking about it. Wonderful.
- Daniel Murphy is headed back to New York for an MRI on his knee. Doesn't sound like his transition to second base went too well.
- The Phils might be interested in Raúl Ibañez. So, to beat the Phillies you just need a few good lefties. Got it.
- Chase Utley's hip needs surgery and will be out for the first few months of the season. Good start to the offseason for the Phillies.
- Another interesting middle-relief signing. Anyone know how much he's getting paid. If it's over $1M, I'll go off on another reliever rant.
- Welcome back, Ryan Dempster. Your manager is already calling you out.
- The Giants are looking to make CC an offer. Can you win games -1-0?
- Day 14. Now, there's one story about the Pirates even on the page, and it's on the bottom.
- Brian Giles still expects to be in San Diego at the beginning of next season. I guess we'll see.
- Mike Mussina is retiring. I know a lot of people want him back for another year or two, but I really believe the man just made the best decision of his life, other than you know ... deciding to play baseball and become obscenely rich.
- Coco was traded for RamRam. Again, I ask ???? Why did either team do this? I guess I can see Boston getting a reliever and losing a contract they didn't need, but a position player for a reliever? On the Royals side, I'm really questioning Moore's sanity. Maybe there's a master plan, but I, unfortunately for Royals fans, do not believe there is one.
- Moore's reason for Coco trade: it gives them more flexibility. So does Jacobs.
- Should baseball announce its awards earlier. I agree with this guy.
- Would you trade Carlos Gomez or Denard Span? Personally, keep both and watch every fly ball caught that enters their domain, especially with the statue in left.
- The A's are still in on Furcal, and the owner makes a dumb suggestion about improving the playoffs. Leave it alone folks.
- Another Angels prospect was released from Winter Ball. Fortunately, this time it was planned.
- The new Mariners' manager thinks the team has a lot of good, young talent. You shouldn't start your tenure by lying.
- Dave O'Brien can't stop talking about Peavy, and therefore, I can't stop thinking about it. Wonderful.
- Daniel Murphy is headed back to New York for an MRI on his knee. Doesn't sound like his transition to second base went too well.
- The Phils might be interested in Raúl Ibañez. So, to beat the Phillies you just need a few good lefties. Got it.
- Chase Utley's hip needs surgery and will be out for the first few months of the season. Good start to the offseason for the Phillies.
- Another interesting middle-relief signing. Anyone know how much he's getting paid. If it's over $1M, I'll go off on another reliever rant.
- Welcome back, Ryan Dempster. Your manager is already calling you out.
- The Giants are looking to make CC an offer. Can you win games -1-0?
- Day 14. Now, there's one story about the Pirates even on the page, and it's on the bottom.
- Brian Giles still expects to be in San Diego at the beginning of next season. I guess we'll see.
18 November 2008
Tuesday Tales
I hate Tuesdays. It's one of my long days, and it's at the beginning of the week. We're not quite over the hill, but we're tantalizingly close. Stupid Tuesdays.
- The Yankees are preparing to offer AJ Burnett a contract. In reality, they are preparing to sign all free-agents so that Hank can institute his idea of fairness.
- Dustin Pedroia wins the AL MVP. Personally, I have no problem with this selection. He was the centerpiece of a team where David Ortiz was slumping, Mike Lowell was ailing, and JD Drew didn't play more than 140 games. Arguments can be made for several guys, but you can't really have a problem for the "Rudy" story.
- Ticket prices go up in Tampa. Attendance somehow goes down.
- Politics and baseball. This time Cal Ripken Jr. is in the middle of it.
- Matt LaPorta and Brandon Wood were sent home from their respective Winter Leagues. Both were sucking pretty hard, but LaPorta had the flu.
- A Minnesota journalist voted for Pedroia. Uh oh ...
- Don Wakamatsu is the supposed front-runner for the Mariner's managerial job. Whachamacallem?
- Evan Grant remembers Josh Hamilton in the MVP race. If Kinsler and Young hadn't gotten hurt, he may have been able to win it.
- Dave O'Brien believes that the Peavy talks will be revisited. Now that Dempster is in Chicago, that almost seems to be a certainty, but didn't I say something like this last night?
- A Philly man thinks the MVP voting is out-of-whack. Hmm, I wonder why he would think so.
- Randy Johnson in Houston again? Richard Justice thinks so, but I have to say a rotation of Oswalt, Johnson, Pettite, Rodriguez, and Moehler doesn't particularly scare me.
- Day 12.
- Jeremy Affeldt signed with the Giants. Everyone seems to love this signing, and I have to admit that getting one of the top relievers for only two years is pretty good. But I still don't think he'll be all that great next season and definitely not worth $4M.
- One man's collection has become LA's museum.
- JC Bradbury doesn't get the love for Ryan Dempster. I don't either.
- The Yankees are preparing to offer AJ Burnett a contract. In reality, they are preparing to sign all free-agents so that Hank can institute his idea of fairness.
- Dustin Pedroia wins the AL MVP. Personally, I have no problem with this selection. He was the centerpiece of a team where David Ortiz was slumping, Mike Lowell was ailing, and JD Drew didn't play more than 140 games. Arguments can be made for several guys, but you can't really have a problem for the "Rudy" story.
- Ticket prices go up in Tampa. Attendance somehow goes down.
- Politics and baseball. This time Cal Ripken Jr. is in the middle of it.
- Matt LaPorta and Brandon Wood were sent home from their respective Winter Leagues. Both were sucking pretty hard, but LaPorta had the flu.
- A Minnesota journalist voted for Pedroia. Uh oh ...
- Don Wakamatsu is the supposed front-runner for the Mariner's managerial job. Whachamacallem?
- Evan Grant remembers Josh Hamilton in the MVP race. If Kinsler and Young hadn't gotten hurt, he may have been able to win it.
- Dave O'Brien believes that the Peavy talks will be revisited. Now that Dempster is in Chicago, that almost seems to be a certainty, but didn't I say something like this last night?
- A Philly man thinks the MVP voting is out-of-whack. Hmm, I wonder why he would think so.
- Randy Johnson in Houston again? Richard Justice thinks so, but I have to say a rotation of Oswalt, Johnson, Pettite, Rodriguez, and Moehler doesn't particularly scare me.
- Day 12.
- Jeremy Affeldt signed with the Giants. Everyone seems to love this signing, and I have to admit that getting one of the top relievers for only two years is pretty good. But I still don't think he'll be all that great next season and definitely not worth $4M.
- One man's collection has become LA's museum.
- JC Bradbury doesn't get the love for Ryan Dempster. I don't either.
17 November 2008
Furcal Excited by Interest from Braves
The Braves have a young, cheap, and talented shortstop that is under their control for at least five more years. His name is Yunel Escobar. The last time the Braves had a guy like this, his name was Rafael Furcal. Well, it looks like Furcal may be coming back. That might have been a little strong. Well, it looks like the Braves are interested in bringing him back. That's better. Even though the Peavy talks are dead, the Braves still have interest in bringing back the free-agent shortstop who will likely get a three or four year deal worth $12-13M per season. Why?
Well, this tells us a few things. One, Escobar may have peeved a few more people off than we thought. You just don't look to trade a guy like him unless there's something wrong. By keeping interest in Furcal, it shows that Escobar may be headed out the door. Two, the Peavy talks are not "dead". They're just under anesthesia. If you don't trade Escobar, where is Furcal going to go? Three, Furcal may go to second and Johnson may be on his way out of town. Second might be less strenuous on Furcal and give the Braves an incredible duo up the middle. Four, the Peavy talks may be going nowhere, but that doesn't mean that no one else is interested in Escobar. There were rumors the Twins were in on him, and an Escobar-Young or Escobar-Slowey deal might be in the offing. Wren doesn't let things leak and may be holding this under wraps. Would Tampa be interested? Escobar for Garza? Okay, I'm doing more speculating than I should. But it seems that Wren intends to move Escobar, for someone. Whether it's Peavy remains to be seen.
Well, this tells us a few things. One, Escobar may have peeved a few more people off than we thought. You just don't look to trade a guy like him unless there's something wrong. By keeping interest in Furcal, it shows that Escobar may be headed out the door. Two, the Peavy talks are not "dead". They're just under anesthesia. If you don't trade Escobar, where is Furcal going to go? Three, Furcal may go to second and Johnson may be on his way out of town. Second might be less strenuous on Furcal and give the Braves an incredible duo up the middle. Four, the Peavy talks may be going nowhere, but that doesn't mean that no one else is interested in Escobar. There were rumors the Twins were in on him, and an Escobar-Young or Escobar-Slowey deal might be in the offing. Wren doesn't let things leak and may be holding this under wraps. Would Tampa be interested? Escobar for Garza? Okay, I'm doing more speculating than I should. But it seems that Wren intends to move Escobar, for someone. Whether it's Peavy remains to be seen.
The Best Hitter in the Game
I realize that I've been doing a lot of comparisons lately, but I can't very well make fun of coaching decisions or talk about slumps or what not. Regardless, I thought the subject of the polls were an interesting topic to write about, so I will write a post about each of them. For the talk about hitters, let's leave the discussion to Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez. Why? Well, what makes up a good hitter? I say it consists of a high average, high on-base percentage, high slugging percentage, hitting to all fields, hitting it hard to all fields, and striking out very little. Usually, you're able to deal with a deficiency in one or two of those areas, but we're talking about the best here. Others, like Joe Mauer (power) and Dustin Pedroia (walks), have deficiencies. Guys like Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, and Kevin Youkilis are good, but we want the best, don't we? So, you the viewers gave most of your votes to Pujols, but Manny came in second. But who is the better hitter -- Pujols or Ramirez?
(Manny's stats in parentheses are his first eight seasons -- I'll take 1995-2002)
Batting Average --> Pujols .334 -- Manny .314 (.322)
The edge goes to Pujols because 20 points is a fairly healthy margin (although Pujols could feasibly have his average drop 30 points, but I doubt it considering he plays a position where guys tend to age gracefully). As for their first eight seasons, Pujols is just slightly better.
BABIP --> Pujols .323 -- Manny .344 (.359)
What does this tell us? It seems to indicate that when Manny puts the bat on the ball, he hits it harder, farther, and with better control than Pujols. Is that absolutely true? Probably not, luck, as with BA, plays a role, but this is a pretty significant sample size. However, Pujols is entering his peak and his BABIP may rise much closer to Manny's. However, at the same time, Manny had a much higher BABIP.
OBP --> Pujols .425 -- Manny .411 (.418)
Pujols does get on a bit more, but when looking at the difference in BA and OBP, Manny achieves an almost 100 point difference while Pujols gets 90 points. This is too close to call.
BB% --> Pujols 13.2 -- Manny 13.7 (11.3)
This accounts for why Manny is a tad better than Pujols at drawing walks, which indicates good discipline and pitch recognition. However, this and OBP can change for Pujols considering he is entering his peak years and has no protection in the lineup. He will be walked more often, and he was almost 2 percentage points better than Manny by his eighth season.
K% --> Pujols 11.1 -- Manny 21.9 (22.9)
This is probably the biggest difference between the two. Pujols has never struck out more than 100 times, and only once has he struck out 70 or more times (93 in his rookie season). Manny has only struck out less than 100 times once in a full season (145 or more games). Pujols has the clear edge here and even more of one after eight seasons.
SLG --> Pujols .624 -- Manny .593 (.612)
Slugging is a little harder than BA to compare because 30 points can be made up easier by hitting a few more doubles, triples, or home runs and having the ridiculously skewed numbers really screw with the comparison. However, Pujols is a bit better, and again considering he's going into his prime, this should go up even more, giving him more of an advantage. However, Manny was close after eight seasons (I guess aging catches up?).
ISO --> Pujols .289 -- Manny .279 (.289)
I don't have a lot of experience with this metric, but the numbers seem awfully close to give a clear winner. It's even identical after eight seasons.
OPS --> Pujols 1.049 -- Manny 1.004 (1.030)
Wow, that's a really small difference and one that doesn't indicate much of a difference, especially after eight years). If this is the be-all-end-all stat that most people use, then these guys really are that close.
LD% --> Pujols 20.0% -- Manny 22.4%
Again, if you're a fan of pure hitting, Manny again has the advantage. He hits more line drives than Pujols. If you want to base this on only when he hits, Manny is the winner, but hitting isn't always about hitting, is it? Also, how does one define
O-Swing% --> Pujols 19% -- Manny 21.9%
This is the metric for how many times a player swings at a pitch outside the strike zone. Pujols seems to have better plate discipline than Manny. I would use the Z-Swing% (percentage of times a player swings at a pitch in the strike zone), but just because it's in the zone, it doesn't make it a good pitch to swing at, making the metric a little more difficult.
Other less interesting stats:
HR --> Pujols 39.625 -- Manny 36.286 (1995-2008)
Obviously per season
2B --> Pujols 42.75 -- Manny 34.571 (1995-2008)
H --> Pujols 191.375 -- Manny 164.643 (1995-2008)
You can take this for what it's worth. However, Pujols has an ever-so-slight edge on most things, but the real clincher is the strikeouts. Pujols just puts the bat on the ball more often. Add in the other stuff, and Pujols is, indeed, the better hitter. Feel free to disagree, but I don't think many will. Please, don't add on Pujols fielding. I'm talking about hitting. Oh, who am I kidding? No one cares about defense.
(Manny's stats in parentheses are his first eight seasons -- I'll take 1995-2002)
Batting Average --> Pujols .334 -- Manny .314 (.322)
The edge goes to Pujols because 20 points is a fairly healthy margin (although Pujols could feasibly have his average drop 30 points, but I doubt it considering he plays a position where guys tend to age gracefully). As for their first eight seasons, Pujols is just slightly better.
BABIP --> Pujols .323 -- Manny .344 (.359)
What does this tell us? It seems to indicate that when Manny puts the bat on the ball, he hits it harder, farther, and with better control than Pujols. Is that absolutely true? Probably not, luck, as with BA, plays a role, but this is a pretty significant sample size. However, Pujols is entering his peak and his BABIP may rise much closer to Manny's. However, at the same time, Manny had a much higher BABIP.
OBP --> Pujols .425 -- Manny .411 (.418)
Pujols does get on a bit more, but when looking at the difference in BA and OBP, Manny achieves an almost 100 point difference while Pujols gets 90 points. This is too close to call.
BB% --> Pujols 13.2 -- Manny 13.7 (11.3)
This accounts for why Manny is a tad better than Pujols at drawing walks, which indicates good discipline and pitch recognition. However, this and OBP can change for Pujols considering he is entering his peak years and has no protection in the lineup. He will be walked more often, and he was almost 2 percentage points better than Manny by his eighth season.
K% --> Pujols 11.1 -- Manny 21.9 (22.9)
This is probably the biggest difference between the two. Pujols has never struck out more than 100 times, and only once has he struck out 70 or more times (93 in his rookie season). Manny has only struck out less than 100 times once in a full season (145 or more games). Pujols has the clear edge here and even more of one after eight seasons.
SLG --> Pujols .624 -- Manny .593 (.612)
Slugging is a little harder than BA to compare because 30 points can be made up easier by hitting a few more doubles, triples, or home runs and having the ridiculously skewed numbers really screw with the comparison. However, Pujols is a bit better, and again considering he's going into his prime, this should go up even more, giving him more of an advantage. However, Manny was close after eight seasons (I guess aging catches up?).
ISO --> Pujols .289 -- Manny .279 (.289)
I don't have a lot of experience with this metric, but the numbers seem awfully close to give a clear winner. It's even identical after eight seasons.
OPS --> Pujols 1.049 -- Manny 1.004 (1.030)
Wow, that's a really small difference and one that doesn't indicate much of a difference, especially after eight years). If this is the be-all-end-all stat that most people use, then these guys really are that close.
LD% --> Pujols 20.0% -- Manny 22.4%
Again, if you're a fan of pure hitting, Manny again has the advantage. He hits more line drives than Pujols. If you want to base this on only when he hits, Manny is the winner, but hitting isn't always about hitting, is it? Also, how does one define
O-Swing% --> Pujols 19% -- Manny 21.9%
This is the metric for how many times a player swings at a pitch outside the strike zone. Pujols seems to have better plate discipline than Manny. I would use the Z-Swing% (percentage of times a player swings at a pitch in the strike zone), but just because it's in the zone, it doesn't make it a good pitch to swing at, making the metric a little more difficult.
Other less interesting stats:
HR --> Pujols 39.625 -- Manny 36.286 (1995-2008)
Obviously per season
2B --> Pujols 42.75 -- Manny 34.571 (1995-2008)
H --> Pujols 191.375 -- Manny 164.643 (1995-2008)
You can take this for what it's worth. However, Pujols has an ever-so-slight edge on most things, but the real clincher is the strikeouts. Pujols just puts the bat on the ball more often. Add in the other stuff, and Pujols is, indeed, the better hitter. Feel free to disagree, but I don't think many will. Please, don't add on Pujols fielding. I'm talking about hitting. Oh, who am I kidding? No one cares about defense.
Yesterday in Football
'Tis better for people to think you are a fool then for you to open your mouth and remove all doubt.Let's take on McNabb first. The Eagles and Bengals, after a game that only can be described as deplorable, finished the game tied, went to overtime, and fittingly ended in a tie. After the game, McNabb, in front of everyone, said he didn't know a game could end in a tie. HOW THE HECK DON'T YOU KNOW THAT?!? It's one of the main differences between the pro game and the college game. He's been in the league for ten years, and he still doesn't know that. I'll slightly forgive rookie DeSean Jackson for not knowing, but I begrudingly do so. Do we really have to go back to elementary and high school where we have to read the handbook and sign it saying we understand all of it? In the end, I do credit to Andy Reid for accepting the blame because it is his fault. He should have been saying, "Alright, fifteen more minutes. Let's go win it for the gipper," or something to that effect. I mean, this is ridiculous. I guess this is another reason why baseball is better. Games can't end in ties (oh ...).
Next, the Steelers played the Chargers in a pretty hapless but much better played game. At the end, the Chargers were down one and were taking the kickoff. In a series of laterals, Troy Polamalu, the Steelers' safety, knocked the ball down and ran it into the end zone for a touchdown. But wait a minute. One of the laterals was an illegal forward pass, and therefore, there was a penalty. Initially, the referees, correctly, called the penalty but said the penalty was declined. I jumped for joy. I don't like the Steelers, per se, but they are my fantasy defense. I was down by one, but after they scored the touchdown (special teams touchdowns count in defense, too), I was up by six. Then, chaos ensues. The two teams line up for the extra point before the referees blow it dead. Everyone looks around, puzzled. The referees confer and decide that the forward pass means that the play was dead and the touchdown doesn't count. I was pissed, not because they were now screwing up (I didn't really understand the rule, either), because now I was losing in my fantasy league. I have lost two straight weeks when my team scored 100+ points, and I was not in the mood for it to happen again. In the end after a review and more confusion, the referees decided the touchdown didn't count and the game was over. Luckily, I have one more player left tonight (Jamal Lewis) who should be able to get 2 points, so I'm not too worried. I actually went to bed happy. Well, when I woke up this morning, people are outraged because of this. Now, I understand the "let's get it right" principle, but this didn't even impact the game, at all, not one iota, not one damn bit, not for one lousy, freakin' second. The Steelers win with or without the last touchdown. I guarantee you that 20% of viewers actually knew the correct rule to that play (without guessing), and while the referees should know, the chances of that happening and that they have encountered it are slim to none. It's like history class when your professor names Grant's cabinet. It would be nice to know, but you figure it won't be on the test. Who the hell knows that anyway? But you want to know why I'm really pissed? At the very end of the article and on ESPN today, they spent time talking about the bettors who lost money because the lost touchdown meant the Steelers didn't cover the spread. ESPN actually focused its time on the betting angle. I get that bettors are pissed, but that is no reason to "tweak" the rule (granted, the NFL is not tweaking it for that reason, but still). If you bet money, it should be "play money", money you don't need. If you're doing it for a living (which I might understand in our times), that money would probably be better spent elsewhere considering the 50% chance (at least) of you failing. Let it also be known that if baseball goes to IR for everything, this can happen there as well. The whole "let's get it right" argument doesn't work out all the time.
Rant over. Thank you for listening (reading).
Monday Musings
- Joba's sorry about his DUI. What's interesting to me is that his story takes up maybe 1/3 of the article and free-agency takes up the rest. I guess we know what's important.
- The Swisher trade makes getting Teixeira easier for the Red Sox. Wishful thinking.
- The Yankees are still waiting for Mussina's retirement decision. Everyone else looking for starting pitching hopes he comes back. Not that they want Mussina. They just want what the Yankees are supposedly about to make huge bids for.
- Mark Cuban has been charged with insider trading. Maybe he can ask Martha Stewart for advice.
- The Mariners will pick a manager by the middle of the week. The losing begins in April.
- Carroll Rogers is relieved about not getting Peavy. The one thing I don't understand is how you can worry about a 27-year old's elbow and then assume Derek Lowe (36) is going to be perfectly healthy. I'm not saying there's an equal chance both will get hurt (I don't know the science, body scans behind it), but there's a decent chance Lowe's contract will end up much worse than Peavy's. Also, don't bring guys on your team because they were nice to you once. I like Dempster, too, but I'm a little more worried about him than AJ Burnett.
- Another Pujols vs. Howard article. My guess is that Carlos Quentin wins. That's the guy that plays for Arizona, right?
- An interesting array of comments about the NL MVP race. One guy had Pujols fifth. Really?!
- Still nothing up about the Pirates at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. If not for a random thing thrown in about a special assistant, we would be on day 12 of nothing about the Pirates.
- Remember Ben Davis? He's now a pitcher in the Reds system.
- The Randy Johnson Top 10 as a Diamondback. I can't believe the bird wasn't number one.
- The Phillies hired an Oriole front-office man. Um, shouldn't that be the other way around?
- Vote more for Dave Cameron!
- The Holliday trade was more lopsided than I thought.
- Some interesting free-agent matchups.
- Here's the man who didn't vote for Joe Maddon for MOY. At least he voted for Ron Gardenhire. I can live with and agree with that, no matter how many people want to disagree with me.
- Pujols over Howard.
- The Swisher trade makes getting Teixeira easier for the Red Sox. Wishful thinking.
- The Yankees are still waiting for Mussina's retirement decision. Everyone else looking for starting pitching hopes he comes back. Not that they want Mussina. They just want what the Yankees are supposedly about to make huge bids for.
- Mark Cuban has been charged with insider trading. Maybe he can ask Martha Stewart for advice.
- The Mariners will pick a manager by the middle of the week. The losing begins in April.
- Carroll Rogers is relieved about not getting Peavy. The one thing I don't understand is how you can worry about a 27-year old's elbow and then assume Derek Lowe (36) is going to be perfectly healthy. I'm not saying there's an equal chance both will get hurt (I don't know the science, body scans behind it), but there's a decent chance Lowe's contract will end up much worse than Peavy's. Also, don't bring guys on your team because they were nice to you once. I like Dempster, too, but I'm a little more worried about him than AJ Burnett.
- Another Pujols vs. Howard article. My guess is that Carlos Quentin wins. That's the guy that plays for Arizona, right?
- An interesting array of comments about the NL MVP race. One guy had Pujols fifth. Really?!
- Still nothing up about the Pirates at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. If not for a random thing thrown in about a special assistant, we would be on day 12 of nothing about the Pirates.
- Remember Ben Davis? He's now a pitcher in the Reds system.
- The Randy Johnson Top 10 as a Diamondback. I can't believe the bird wasn't number one.
- The Phillies hired an Oriole front-office man. Um, shouldn't that be the other way around?
- Vote more for Dave Cameron!
- The Holliday trade was more lopsided than I thought.
- Some interesting free-agent matchups.
- Here's the man who didn't vote for Joe Maddon for MOY. At least he voted for Ron Gardenhire. I can live with and agree with that, no matter how many people want to disagree with me.
- Pujols over Howard.
16 November 2008
Astros Looking to Trade Lee?
This is more from the same Cafardo article earlier. The Astros may be looking to dump salaries this off-season, and Carlos Lee, if they can get him to waive his no-trade clause, would be a player they would consider trading. So, like always, I have to look at whether or not the Braves should consider getting him, as they have a huge need for an OF bat. Would he be a good fit?
Lee will be 33 next season, so he'll probably start to decline over the next few years. His body type doesn't bode real well for that either, but he's always been more athletic than people give him credit for. As for his contract, he is owed $74M over the next four years ($18.5M each season), so he's very expensive. What the receiving team gets is a .290/.350/.510 hitter who will hit 30+ HR and drive in 100 R. He's been pretty durable throughout his career until a fluke finger injury forced hom to only 115 games this past season, but he had played in at least 150 games in 7 of the previous 9 seasons (140 and 115 in the other seasons). However, this is the point of a career where injuries start to creep up on people. The one surprising thing about Lee is that he has never struck out 100 times in a season (most in the 60-80 range), which is pretty incredible for a power-hitter. He has also been remarkably consistent throughout his career. The talent is definitely there.
So is Lee a good idea? I guess it depends on what the Astros want in return. Considering his age, I would be reluctant to give up too much for him, but he is a legit clean-up hitter and can play decently in left field. His salary is also an issue. The Braves need to spend their money on pitching, so spending $20M of the remaining $40-45M on Lee is probably a bad idea. The Astros would have to eat part of the salary to get the job done. Would the Astros take a Morton/Hernandez/Lillibridge trade? I doubt it. If they are going to eat salary and give up a guy with considerable talent, they'll want something significant in return. I'm not sure how desperate the Astros are, but so far, it doesn't seem that they're really pushing anything. I'd like Lee, but I wouldn't give up Peavy talent for him.
Lee will be 33 next season, so he'll probably start to decline over the next few years. His body type doesn't bode real well for that either, but he's always been more athletic than people give him credit for. As for his contract, he is owed $74M over the next four years ($18.5M each season), so he's very expensive. What the receiving team gets is a .290/.350/.510 hitter who will hit 30+ HR and drive in 100 R. He's been pretty durable throughout his career until a fluke finger injury forced hom to only 115 games this past season, but he had played in at least 150 games in 7 of the previous 9 seasons (140 and 115 in the other seasons). However, this is the point of a career where injuries start to creep up on people. The one surprising thing about Lee is that he has never struck out 100 times in a season (most in the 60-80 range), which is pretty incredible for a power-hitter. He has also been remarkably consistent throughout his career. The talent is definitely there.
So is Lee a good idea? I guess it depends on what the Astros want in return. Considering his age, I would be reluctant to give up too much for him, but he is a legit clean-up hitter and can play decently in left field. His salary is also an issue. The Braves need to spend their money on pitching, so spending $20M of the remaining $40-45M on Lee is probably a bad idea. The Astros would have to eat part of the salary to get the job done. Would the Astros take a Morton/Hernandez/Lillibridge trade? I doubt it. If they are going to eat salary and give up a guy with considerable talent, they'll want something significant in return. I'm not sure how desperate the Astros are, but so far, it doesn't seem that they're really pushing anything. I'd like Lee, but I wouldn't give up Peavy talent for him.
Robertson or Willis for Lugo?
Nick Cafardo at the Boston Globe mentioned a rumor about the Tigers trading Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis to Boston for Julio Lugo. It has been talked about before, but it seems more likely now. This would be bad contact swap that could be helpful to both team. If it isn't, then there's really no harm done. I remember someone asking why teams don't make more trades like this, but especially now, people want to get rid of those bad contracts. I have a gut feeling it would hold up this deal as well. The Tigers don't want to trade contracts. They want to get rid of them. But if it were to go through, who should Boston take in return, Robertson or Willis?
Nate Robertson
He'll be 31 for most of next season, and he still has 2 years and $17M ($7M, $10M) left on his contract. After a very good 2006 where he went 13-13 with a 3.86 ERA, Robertson has struggled all the way to a 6.35 ERA this past season. However, there are indications that he isn't that bad. His BABIP was a very high .343 (Boston's defense should be much better than Detroit's), his LOB% was 64.3 (low), and his GB/FB was a respectable 1.21. His K/9 didn't go down much, and his BB/9 wasn't much bigger than usual. Still, his FIP has always sat around 4.50 to 4.70, and in his 2006 season, it was 4.72. Things won't get any easier in the AL East. If he goes to Boston, he likely won't be 6.35 bad, but he won't be anywhere near 4.
Dontrelle Willis
He'll be 27 years old next season (four years younger than Robertson), but he's still owed $22M over the next two years ($10M, $12M). After a Cy Young-like 2005 where he went 22-10 with a 2.83 ERA, Willis regressed his next season but has plummeted the past two seasons all the way to a 9.38 ERA this past season. His walks were the main culprit (a BB/9 of 13.13) as he just couldn't gain any control, but he did get better in the minors (a BB/9 of less than 4.50, which still isn't good). His K/9 hasn't gone down, and it actually went up last season, but his GB/FB really went down from a good 1.44 to a poor .94. If he is going to be successful in Boston, his groundball rate has to go back down. What's even weirder about Willis' season is his BABIP of .220 (.220!), but his LOB% of 59.9 evened things back out. If Boston takes him, they get a younger pitcher who may have more upside (if he can regain his command), but things won't be any easier for a guy who has his good seasons in the NL and is now going to the AL East.
So who do you pick? Do you take the guy who has been fairly consistent but not consistently good? Or do you take the guy who has been Cy Young material but completely collapsed in a Rick Ankiel/Mark Wohlers manner? Lugo is owed $18M over the next two seasons ($18M), so the Tigers might be more inclined to give up Willis. Does it really hurt to just keep Lugo on the bench? I realize no one likes a $9M bench guy, but do you want a $10M minor league pitcher? Isn't Lugo the definition of sunk cost? But then again, Willis or Robertson would take the place of that sunk cost, and you get at least an attempt at pitching depth. Okay, so I'd take Robertson out of consistency's sake. Boston's defense will make him look better, so his ERA might go down to about 4.30, which would be respectable for a fifth starter. I just don't think Willis is going to be that good (although he won't be 9.28 bad, either). You know what the Red Sox should do is make the Lugo/Robertson trade and then trade a mid-level guy for Bobby Crosby to be the back-up for only $5.25M. Now, we're all happy.
Nate Robertson
He'll be 31 for most of next season, and he still has 2 years and $17M ($7M, $10M) left on his contract. After a very good 2006 where he went 13-13 with a 3.86 ERA, Robertson has struggled all the way to a 6.35 ERA this past season. However, there are indications that he isn't that bad. His BABIP was a very high .343 (Boston's defense should be much better than Detroit's), his LOB% was 64.3 (low), and his GB/FB was a respectable 1.21. His K/9 didn't go down much, and his BB/9 wasn't much bigger than usual. Still, his FIP has always sat around 4.50 to 4.70, and in his 2006 season, it was 4.72. Things won't get any easier in the AL East. If he goes to Boston, he likely won't be 6.35 bad, but he won't be anywhere near 4.
Dontrelle Willis
He'll be 27 years old next season (four years younger than Robertson), but he's still owed $22M over the next two years ($10M, $12M). After a Cy Young-like 2005 where he went 22-10 with a 2.83 ERA, Willis regressed his next season but has plummeted the past two seasons all the way to a 9.38 ERA this past season. His walks were the main culprit (a BB/9 of 13.13) as he just couldn't gain any control, but he did get better in the minors (a BB/9 of less than 4.50, which still isn't good). His K/9 hasn't gone down, and it actually went up last season, but his GB/FB really went down from a good 1.44 to a poor .94. If he is going to be successful in Boston, his groundball rate has to go back down. What's even weirder about Willis' season is his BABIP of .220 (.220!), but his LOB% of 59.9 evened things back out. If Boston takes him, they get a younger pitcher who may have more upside (if he can regain his command), but things won't be any easier for a guy who has his good seasons in the NL and is now going to the AL East.
So who do you pick? Do you take the guy who has been fairly consistent but not consistently good? Or do you take the guy who has been Cy Young material but completely collapsed in a Rick Ankiel/Mark Wohlers manner? Lugo is owed $18M over the next two seasons ($18M), so the Tigers might be more inclined to give up Willis. Does it really hurt to just keep Lugo on the bench? I realize no one likes a $9M bench guy, but do you want a $10M minor league pitcher? Isn't Lugo the definition of sunk cost? But then again, Willis or Robertson would take the place of that sunk cost, and you get at least an attempt at pitching depth. Okay, so I'd take Robertson out of consistency's sake. Boston's defense will make him look better, so his ERA might go down to about 4.30, which would be respectable for a fifth starter. I just don't think Willis is going to be that good (although he won't be 9.28 bad, either). You know what the Red Sox should do is make the Lugo/Robertson trade and then trade a mid-level guy for Bobby Crosby to be the back-up for only $5.25M. Now, we're all happy.
Sunday Spiels
What a wonderful Sunday morning. No papers. No projects. Just have to read a book or two.
- Apparently, CC Sabathia has already signed with the Yankees. At least, that's essentially what the article says.
- Pedro feels Manny's pain. The team that signs Manny hopes he doesn't feel Pedro's.
- The 171 free-agents.
- The White Sox are going to look really different next year. My favorite quote is at the beginning"
Cubs, schmubs. Let's concentrate on a team that can win a playoff game. Hmmm, what are those White Sox up to, anyhow?
- The Twins might make an offer to Casey Blake. Bad idea. He's not the middle of the order bat they need, and he's not a great defensive player, either.
- The Mariners are creating a stats department in their front office. They just became Rob Neyer's favorite team.
- The Mets are enjoying the flood of free-agent closers as it should bring their price down. You just watch, I bet they overpay anyway.
- The Phillies don't have much to look for this off-season. On a sort of related note, I keep hearing Baldelli's name mentioned in articles about NL teams. Can he play every day? I thought his mitchondrial disorder was supposed to keep him away from that for now.
- Pujols vs. Howard. Hey Albert, what are you going to say if you win the award this year over Howard, whose team made the playoffs? Karma. (I really like Pujols, but I hate when guys complain about not getting awards. I do realize he's been screwed a few times in his career, so maybe he and Halladay should start a club)
- The mid-tier free-agents.
- I threw up a little in my mouth. I a ... a ... gree with Bill Plaschke. My soul just died.
- Chris Young can't believe Hoffman's gone. He won't be able to believe it when he's gone as well.
- Apparently, CC Sabathia has already signed with the Yankees. At least, that's essentially what the article says.
- Pedro feels Manny's pain. The team that signs Manny hopes he doesn't feel Pedro's.
- The 171 free-agents.
- The White Sox are going to look really different next year. My favorite quote is at the beginning"
Cubs, schmubs. Let's concentrate on a team that can win a playoff game. Hmmm, what are those White Sox up to, anyhow?
- The Twins might make an offer to Casey Blake. Bad idea. He's not the middle of the order bat they need, and he's not a great defensive player, either.
- The Mariners are creating a stats department in their front office. They just became Rob Neyer's favorite team.
- The Mets are enjoying the flood of free-agent closers as it should bring their price down. You just watch, I bet they overpay anyway.
- The Phillies don't have much to look for this off-season. On a sort of related note, I keep hearing Baldelli's name mentioned in articles about NL teams. Can he play every day? I thought his mitchondrial disorder was supposed to keep him away from that for now.
- Pujols vs. Howard. Hey Albert, what are you going to say if you win the award this year over Howard, whose team made the playoffs? Karma. (I really like Pujols, but I hate when guys complain about not getting awards. I do realize he's been screwed a few times in his career, so maybe he and Halladay should start a club)
- The mid-tier free-agents.
- I threw up a little in my mouth. I a ... a ... gree with Bill Plaschke. My soul just died.
- Chris Young can't believe Hoffman's gone. He won't be able to believe it when he's gone as well.
15 November 2008
From One Mercenary to Another
LeBron James wants and is confident that the Yankees will sign CC Sabathia this off-season. Didn't LeBron already piss off the home folks? I guess he won't stay in Cleveland, either.
Baseball Trying to Get Back into Olympics
Baseball has already been banned for the 2012 London Olympics, but baseball ambassadors are trying to have the games re-included for the 2016 Olympics.
The reasons for jettisoning baseball are crystal-clear. The drug-testing in the sport is far behind that of the Olympics, and baseball does not allow its professional players to participate because it does not want to take a two-week break in the middle of the season. The IOC is not happy about either of those negatives, and they won't allow baseball to return unless something is done about them.
Making things worse is that baseball could not draw any fans in China this past summer. While this might be alleviated by allowing professionals to play, it still indicates that baseball hasn't really taken hold outside of its homeland, Latin America, and Japan. Baseball has earnestly tried to globalize its game by going to China, South Africa, and India. Europe is even beginning its own leagues. I'm sure the ambassadors mentioned this in their presentations to the IOC, but the IOC probably countered with the fact that baseball has not been in those countries long enough to 1) become popular and 2) build competitive teams.
As for drug testing, baseball has made advances, but it still is not on par with that of the Olympics. One thing working in favor of baseball is that basketball's doesn't either, so this can be worked around. Also, baseball's "attempt" to improve testing may look good enough to receive some credit.
The major sticking point will be the players. The IOC likes the best in the world showing up, and they have every right to want that. The Olympics are the pinnacle of international sports events, and to be included, the sport needs to send its very best. The Olympics has earned this. However, baseball is not likely to bend on this. Go ahead, mention the World Baseball Classic, but that is another story. The WBC happens before the season, not during the season. Go ahead and say the players and owners are greedy for not wanting to go, but I can't wait to hear the complaints about baseball going not just into early November, but mid-November. You won't be happy about it, either. Logistical problems make this worse. How do you work pitchers? How do you ensure everyone gets enough at-bats/innings? I'm thinking teams don't want their players taking two weeks off.
I want to see baseball in the Olympics, but I doubt it would happen. I know most people don't really care, but if they included professionals, I think people would pay attention. Heck, it might even get better ratings than the World Series. Heck, it would probably help "globalize" the game. But it won't happen.
It's the dollar vs. nationalism, and in the end, players are mercenaries. Some might choose patriotism but not enough to make a difference. Sure, baseball could go down to 150 games or so to accomodate schedules, but we've already heard the outcry in the World Series aftermath. No, we're much more worried about ourselves to do the right thing in the name of world peace, or whatever. Instead of taking a couple weeks off to get involved in an international competition, we'll stay right here and remind ourselves the rest of the world doesn't matter.
However much I want baseball in the Olympics because I think it's more international than curling or cross-country skiing, it's only baseball. It's only one sport. Is it really going to affect the Olympics if baseball isn't there? Will it affect baseball if it's not in the Olympics? Bud Selig and the MLB are trying to figure that out. Right now, they want the cake and to eat it, too. They want the IOC to let baseball back in (of course to get international attention) without including their best players (insert because they don't want the world to find out how many players actually take steroids).
The reasons for jettisoning baseball are crystal-clear. The drug-testing in the sport is far behind that of the Olympics, and baseball does not allow its professional players to participate because it does not want to take a two-week break in the middle of the season. The IOC is not happy about either of those negatives, and they won't allow baseball to return unless something is done about them.
Making things worse is that baseball could not draw any fans in China this past summer. While this might be alleviated by allowing professionals to play, it still indicates that baseball hasn't really taken hold outside of its homeland, Latin America, and Japan. Baseball has earnestly tried to globalize its game by going to China, South Africa, and India. Europe is even beginning its own leagues. I'm sure the ambassadors mentioned this in their presentations to the IOC, but the IOC probably countered with the fact that baseball has not been in those countries long enough to 1) become popular and 2) build competitive teams.
As for drug testing, baseball has made advances, but it still is not on par with that of the Olympics. One thing working in favor of baseball is that basketball's doesn't either, so this can be worked around. Also, baseball's "attempt" to improve testing may look good enough to receive some credit.
The major sticking point will be the players. The IOC likes the best in the world showing up, and they have every right to want that. The Olympics are the pinnacle of international sports events, and to be included, the sport needs to send its very best. The Olympics has earned this. However, baseball is not likely to bend on this. Go ahead, mention the World Baseball Classic, but that is another story. The WBC happens before the season, not during the season. Go ahead and say the players and owners are greedy for not wanting to go, but I can't wait to hear the complaints about baseball going not just into early November, but mid-November. You won't be happy about it, either. Logistical problems make this worse. How do you work pitchers? How do you ensure everyone gets enough at-bats/innings? I'm thinking teams don't want their players taking two weeks off.
I want to see baseball in the Olympics, but I doubt it would happen. I know most people don't really care, but if they included professionals, I think people would pay attention. Heck, it might even get better ratings than the World Series. Heck, it would probably help "globalize" the game. But it won't happen.
It's the dollar vs. nationalism, and in the end, players are mercenaries. Some might choose patriotism but not enough to make a difference. Sure, baseball could go down to 150 games or so to accomodate schedules, but we've already heard the outcry in the World Series aftermath. No, we're much more worried about ourselves to do the right thing in the name of world peace, or whatever. Instead of taking a couple weeks off to get involved in an international competition, we'll stay right here and remind ourselves the rest of the world doesn't matter.
However much I want baseball in the Olympics because I think it's more international than curling or cross-country skiing, it's only baseball. It's only one sport. Is it really going to affect the Olympics if baseball isn't there? Will it affect baseball if it's not in the Olympics? Bud Selig and the MLB are trying to figure that out. Right now, they want the cake and to eat it, too. They want the IOC to let baseball back in (of course to get international attention) without including their best players (insert because they don't want the world to find out how many players actually take steroids).
Free-Agent Relievers
When I saw the article about the Cardinals' strategy to pursue relief help first this off-season, I almost flipped. I realize that their bullpen wasn't very good last year (20th of all 30), but spending money on free-agent relievers has to be the worst free-agent strategy possible. The only ones worth going for are the really good ones who are reliable, but those are usually the ones who are going to cost $10M per season, and there's no reason to spend $10M on a guy who pitches 70 innings.
First off, the Cardinals don't have all that much money anyway, but they desperately need middle-infielders or starting pitchers, who are going to influence a team more than any reliever. If you get some good middle infielders, they can help make your relievers a little better by taking away hits and adding some on offensively. Spend the money on Furcal and Lopez, and use whatever's left on relievers. Free-agent relievers are luxuries, not necessities.
I almost wrote something the other day when the Yankees signed Marte to 3 year contract. I would have rather taken the option and gotten rid of him after next year. Marte has been pretty consistent over his career, but that's pretty unusual. I would say he would be worth a couple million, but $12M over 3 years? Then again, that's like $1M for the Yankees.
As for the other big names:
Juan Cruz- 3.22, 3.98, 6.08, 2.75, 7.44, 4.18, 3.10, 2.61 (3.74)
Those are his ERA's over his career. Do you like those blips? Are you really willing to bet that he won't have another one? Bill James (in parentheses) seems to think there will be a serious regression. Do you want him pitching in the ninth for you?
Jeremy Affeldt- 4.64, 3.93, 4.95, 5.26, 6.20, 3.51, 3.33 (4.39)
Everyone seems to think he's "blossoming", but Bill James seems to think he's about to tank it.
Will Ohman- 7.72, 2.91, 4.13, 4.95, 3.68 (3.69)
For whatever reason, James thinks Ohman can repeat his performance next year. Considering his career numbers, I wouldn't count on it.
Joe Beimel- 5.23, 4.64, 5.05, 2.96, 3.88, 2.02 (3.98)
Up, down, up, down, and you still want to give him $3M next year hoping he can be what he was this year?
Russ Springer- 5.29, 4.66, 4.23, 4.10, 3.42, 5.08, 4.73, 3.47, 2.18, 2.32 (3.22)
Bill James is willing to guess that Russ Springer is going to be good next year, but he's as volatile as the others.
Brandon Lyon- 4.12, 6.44, 3.89, 2.68, 4.70 (4.16)
He's getting out of Bank One ... Bank of America ... Oh, Chase Bank Park, so he should get better, but James doesn't think he's going to get a lot better.
Dennys Reyes- 3.80, 4.54, 4.92, 5.33, 4.75, 5.15, 0.89, 3.99, 2.33 (4.16)
0.89? Really? Wow, but he didn't really follow it up realy well.
After looking at just some of the middle relievers about to make some serious dough, you can see how volatile they are. It's not that their talent level drops. It's that they pitch so few innings. A starter can have a bad 50 innings, but then, he can make up for it over the next 50. A reliever can't. You can get his good 50 or his bad. You don't know. It's not worth paying $3M to get an unknown. James, as smart as he is, seems to be hedging his bets with his predictions. I can't blame him. Shoot for the middle and see what sticks. It's essentially what's going to happen anyway.
Now, what about closers? They are better pitchers, which is why they've been put at the spot they have. That's why they get more innings. It's why they make $10+M in free-agency. That's still too much when you could spend that to either add a really good shortstop or a decent starting pitcher.
First off, the Cardinals don't have all that much money anyway, but they desperately need middle-infielders or starting pitchers, who are going to influence a team more than any reliever. If you get some good middle infielders, they can help make your relievers a little better by taking away hits and adding some on offensively. Spend the money on Furcal and Lopez, and use whatever's left on relievers. Free-agent relievers are luxuries, not necessities.
I almost wrote something the other day when the Yankees signed Marte to 3 year contract. I would have rather taken the option and gotten rid of him after next year. Marte has been pretty consistent over his career, but that's pretty unusual. I would say he would be worth a couple million, but $12M over 3 years? Then again, that's like $1M for the Yankees.
As for the other big names:
Juan Cruz- 3.22, 3.98, 6.08, 2.75, 7.44, 4.18, 3.10, 2.61 (3.74)
Those are his ERA's over his career. Do you like those blips? Are you really willing to bet that he won't have another one? Bill James (in parentheses) seems to think there will be a serious regression. Do you want him pitching in the ninth for you?
Jeremy Affeldt- 4.64, 3.93, 4.95, 5.26, 6.20, 3.51, 3.33 (4.39)
Everyone seems to think he's "blossoming", but Bill James seems to think he's about to tank it.
Will Ohman- 7.72, 2.91, 4.13, 4.95, 3.68 (3.69)
For whatever reason, James thinks Ohman can repeat his performance next year. Considering his career numbers, I wouldn't count on it.
Joe Beimel- 5.23, 4.64, 5.05, 2.96, 3.88, 2.02 (3.98)
Up, down, up, down, and you still want to give him $3M next year hoping he can be what he was this year?
Russ Springer- 5.29, 4.66, 4.23, 4.10, 3.42, 5.08, 4.73, 3.47, 2.18, 2.32 (3.22)
Bill James is willing to guess that Russ Springer is going to be good next year, but he's as volatile as the others.
Brandon Lyon- 4.12, 6.44, 3.89, 2.68, 4.70 (4.16)
He's getting out of Bank One ... Bank of America ... Oh, Chase Bank Park, so he should get better, but James doesn't think he's going to get a lot better.
Dennys Reyes- 3.80, 4.54, 4.92, 5.33, 4.75, 5.15, 0.89, 3.99, 2.33 (4.16)
0.89? Really? Wow, but he didn't really follow it up realy well.
After looking at just some of the middle relievers about to make some serious dough, you can see how volatile they are. It's not that their talent level drops. It's that they pitch so few innings. A starter can have a bad 50 innings, but then, he can make up for it over the next 50. A reliever can't. You can get his good 50 or his bad. You don't know. It's not worth paying $3M to get an unknown. James, as smart as he is, seems to be hedging his bets with his predictions. I can't blame him. Shoot for the middle and see what sticks. It's essentially what's going to happen anyway.
Now, what about closers? They are better pitchers, which is why they've been put at the spot they have. That's why they get more innings. It's why they make $10+M in free-agency. That's still too much when you could spend that to either add a really good shortstop or a decent starting pitcher.
Saturday Sagas
There aren't a whole lot of links this morning, probably because I gave you a bunch last night. I'll try to update later.
- Brian Cashman says the Swisher deal makes Mark Teixeira unlikely. Uh huh, I'll believe it when I see it.
- A man gave away his tickets to a couple for the ALCS Game 5 in Boston. Nice guy, but you know it's a slow news day when ...
- The Tigers are raising ticket prices. Anyone else think they would have been better off with Maybin, Miller, and Jurrjens?
- Minnesota's Metrodome is the AL's toughest hitter's park. Well, if you made them turn off the air-conditioners that are directed back at the plate, we wouldn't have this problem and the Braves would have an extra World Series championship. Stupid Twins.
- The door is still open for a K-Rod return to the Angels. I guess he's not getting the contract offers he thought he was going to get. Who would have thought 5 years/$75M was too much?
- Mike Maddux focuses more on conviction than mechanics. Let's just hope the Rangers can rely more on hope than talent.
- Dr. Andrews and his organization have created a machine to analyze pitchers' deliveries in order to prevent injuries. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
- Clark Spencer say that Marlins Nation has a pulse. What he conveniently forgets to mention is the number of votes.
- The Cardinals are targeting free-agent relievers first. That has to be the absolute worst strategy.
- Doug Melvin is puzzled the Yankees offered so much for Sabathia. I believe that was the point.
- The Giants are using their young pitching to lure free-agents. Good because nothing else would sell that team.
- Towers is looking for other suitors for Peavy. The Yankees and Angels are the obvious suitors, but without the Braves, neither team is likely to overbid either. If the Cubs really need a third team, I can't see anyone jumping in to help the best team in the NL.
- Brian Cashman says the Swisher deal makes Mark Teixeira unlikely. Uh huh, I'll believe it when I see it.
- A man gave away his tickets to a couple for the ALCS Game 5 in Boston. Nice guy, but you know it's a slow news day when ...
- The Tigers are raising ticket prices. Anyone else think they would have been better off with Maybin, Miller, and Jurrjens?
- Minnesota's Metrodome is the AL's toughest hitter's park. Well, if you made them turn off the air-conditioners that are directed back at the plate, we wouldn't have this problem and the Braves would have an extra World Series championship. Stupid Twins.
- The door is still open for a K-Rod return to the Angels. I guess he's not getting the contract offers he thought he was going to get. Who would have thought 5 years/$75M was too much?
- Mike Maddux focuses more on conviction than mechanics. Let's just hope the Rangers can rely more on hope than talent.
- Dr. Andrews and his organization have created a machine to analyze pitchers' deliveries in order to prevent injuries. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
- Clark Spencer say that Marlins Nation has a pulse. What he conveniently forgets to mention is the number of votes.
- The Cardinals are targeting free-agent relievers first. That has to be the absolute worst strategy.
- Doug Melvin is puzzled the Yankees offered so much for Sabathia. I believe that was the point.
- The Giants are using their young pitching to lure free-agents. Good because nothing else would sell that team.
- Towers is looking for other suitors for Peavy. The Yankees and Angels are the obvious suitors, but without the Braves, neither team is likely to overbid either. If the Cubs really need a third team, I can't see anyone jumping in to help the best team in the NL.
14 November 2008
Friday Fancies
So I'm a loser and not doing anything on a Friday night. Most of my friends went down to Nashville to see a concert, and I had no desire to see the band. Therefore, I'm stuck here, which is actually kind of nice to just relax. It also gives me a chance to get back on here and write, which I haven't been able to do because of research papers due this week. I shouldn't have any other big papers until after the break, so things should be more regular around here.
- The Yankees gave CC Sabathia a six-year/$140M deal. Can you say pre-emptive strike?
- Cliff Lee won the Cy Young, which I have no problem with, but how the h-e-double hockey sticks did Dice-K end up fourth?
- Can Dustin Pedroia make it a clean sweep on Monday? It's hard to argue against him.
- Is Mark Teixeira worth $20M a year? In a word, yes. In more than one word, he is and might be the safest 10-year/$200M deal you can make.
- Royals added Mike Arbuckle to the front-office today. Best thing they've done this ... well, it's been awhile.
- The Tigers' free-agent outlook? In one hyphenated word, non-existent.
- Matt Holliday's fine with his move to Oakland. In a surprise move, the A's move in the fences.
- Brian McCann won the Silver Slugger. If Soto had won, I would have given up on awards. Nothing against Soto, but you can't really argue he was better than McCann.
- I almost gave up when I saw Wright and Jeter won Silver Sluggers. I think Chipper should have won, but I can go with Wright played more games. Jeter wasn't as great as he usually is, but the AL shortstops suck. Remember the good ole' days with Garciaparra, Tejada, Jeter, and A-Rod?
- Kevin Gregg was traded to the Cubs. Not that I think the trade wasn't even, but why do the Cubs want a fly-ball reliever? Gregg isn't that bad, but he made so much more sense for other teams.
- Nationals to make push for Teixeira. Teixeira asks for restraining order.
- It's good to be left-handed and a reliever.
- It's funny when all the articles on the Pirates' newspaper site has no Pirates articles. Oh, if you look real hard, there's a McLouth-Gold Glove article. So if not for a fluke, the Pirates would be totally inconsequential this off-season.
- Interesting question, where does Lincecum go from here. He really can't get any better can he? Will all his other seasons be disappointments?
- Randy Johnson and the D-Backs couldn't come to an agreement. Somehow, I think he ends up in Washington. I have no idea why, but I figure he will.
- Huston Street is excited to be a Rocky. Poor guy's delusional. Here's for a new nickname: "Wynkoop Street".
- The Yankees gave CC Sabathia a six-year/$140M deal. Can you say pre-emptive strike?
- Cliff Lee won the Cy Young, which I have no problem with, but how the h-e-double hockey sticks did Dice-K end up fourth?
- Can Dustin Pedroia make it a clean sweep on Monday? It's hard to argue against him.
- Is Mark Teixeira worth $20M a year? In a word, yes. In more than one word, he is and might be the safest 10-year/$200M deal you can make.
- Royals added Mike Arbuckle to the front-office today. Best thing they've done this ... well, it's been awhile.
- The Tigers' free-agent outlook? In one hyphenated word, non-existent.
- Matt Holliday's fine with his move to Oakland. In a surprise move, the A's move in the fences.
- Brian McCann won the Silver Slugger. If Soto had won, I would have given up on awards. Nothing against Soto, but you can't really argue he was better than McCann.
- I almost gave up when I saw Wright and Jeter won Silver Sluggers. I think Chipper should have won, but I can go with Wright played more games. Jeter wasn't as great as he usually is, but the AL shortstops suck. Remember the good ole' days with Garciaparra, Tejada, Jeter, and A-Rod?
- Kevin Gregg was traded to the Cubs. Not that I think the trade wasn't even, but why do the Cubs want a fly-ball reliever? Gregg isn't that bad, but he made so much more sense for other teams.
- Nationals to make push for Teixeira. Teixeira asks for restraining order.
- It's good to be left-handed and a reliever.
- It's funny when all the articles on the Pirates' newspaper site has no Pirates articles. Oh, if you look real hard, there's a McLouth-Gold Glove article. So if not for a fluke, the Pirates would be totally inconsequential this off-season.
- Interesting question, where does Lincecum go from here. He really can't get any better can he? Will all his other seasons be disappointments?
- Randy Johnson and the D-Backs couldn't come to an agreement. Somehow, I think he ends up in Washington. I have no idea why, but I figure he will.
- Huston Street is excited to be a Rocky. Poor guy's delusional. Here's for a new nickname: "Wynkoop Street".
Wren Tired of Being Poached
GM Frank Wren decided to end his run at Jake Peavy after being jerked around for the past few weeks. Instead, he'll make a run at signing two of AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Ryan Dempster. I'm not sure he'll get two of them, but I bet he gets at least one and settles for Ben Sheets for the other one, something I wouldn't be upset with.
As for the decision, I agree with it. It's time to see what you can get on the free-agent market, and if you need to, you can go back and get Peavy. The Padres won't trade him for now. If the Cubs didn't give them a good enough offer yet, they won't now that the Braves have dropped out. I doubt the Angels or Yankees will be any more inclined. He'll be waiting. With the money the Braves have, they can afford to do so.
As for Peavy, I wish the Braves would have gotten him. I believe he would have been an ace for them. Regarding his home/road splits, I think his situation is the reverse-Matt Holliday. His road splits undervalue the job he'd do. Granted, he wouldn't be sub-3 good, but what is wrong with 3.10 or 3.20? Again, he's not going anywhere, and the Braves know it. The headline for the link is a little dramatic. They are ending their pursuit of Peavy ... for now. This is also good for the Padres, possibly. If the Braves have to come back, they'll be more willing to pay the price. I also think Peavy will have more value at the deadline. A player in his last year has less value at the deadline, but with three years left and a team's desperate need for starting pitching, a team would be willing to give up whatever was necessary for what will be a healthy and successful Peavy.
As for Escobar and the prospects, I'm glad they're still here. I really like Escobar. This season's "regression" is a typical slight regression during a second season. Plus, he still plays great defense. Regarding Hernandez, Schafer is still here, so I wouldn't be too worried about him going. Same for Morton, I think he'll be good, but the Braves have other options. I'll give Morton the benefit of the doubt right now because of the shoulder injury, but if he continues to be so erratic, I might change my mind.
All in all, this was a positive, and forseen, decision. The Braves and the Padres really had no choice. The Braves couldn't wait any longer, and the Padres just want more. I can't blame them. They still have time to make a deal, and I still think they should wait until next July to trade him, even if that means the Braves would have to give up more for him.
As for the decision, I agree with it. It's time to see what you can get on the free-agent market, and if you need to, you can go back and get Peavy. The Padres won't trade him for now. If the Cubs didn't give them a good enough offer yet, they won't now that the Braves have dropped out. I doubt the Angels or Yankees will be any more inclined. He'll be waiting. With the money the Braves have, they can afford to do so.
As for Peavy, I wish the Braves would have gotten him. I believe he would have been an ace for them. Regarding his home/road splits, I think his situation is the reverse-Matt Holliday. His road splits undervalue the job he'd do. Granted, he wouldn't be sub-3 good, but what is wrong with 3.10 or 3.20? Again, he's not going anywhere, and the Braves know it. The headline for the link is a little dramatic. They are ending their pursuit of Peavy ... for now. This is also good for the Padres, possibly. If the Braves have to come back, they'll be more willing to pay the price. I also think Peavy will have more value at the deadline. A player in his last year has less value at the deadline, but with three years left and a team's desperate need for starting pitching, a team would be willing to give up whatever was necessary for what will be a healthy and successful Peavy.
As for Escobar and the prospects, I'm glad they're still here. I really like Escobar. This season's "regression" is a typical slight regression during a second season. Plus, he still plays great defense. Regarding Hernandez, Schafer is still here, so I wouldn't be too worried about him going. Same for Morton, I think he'll be good, but the Braves have other options. I'll give Morton the benefit of the doubt right now because of the shoulder injury, but if he continues to be so erratic, I might change my mind.
All in all, this was a positive, and forseen, decision. The Braves and the Padres really had no choice. The Braves couldn't wait any longer, and the Padres just want more. I can't blame them. They still have time to make a deal, and I still think they should wait until next July to trade him, even if that means the Braves would have to give up more for him.
12 November 2008
Jermaine Dye
GM Kenny Williams is looking into trading Jermaine Dye in his attempt to make his team younger, more athletic, and faster. Dye is an attractive option at a corner outfield spot, but would your team want him?
He's 35 next season, so he's beginning to reach that time in his career where he should start to decline, but declining from .292/.344/.541 could still help a lot of teams. Dye's a pretty athletic and well-built guy who played 151 games in the outfield, so he's still able to help out an NL team. But will he still let you down? He just had a rebound year. Was the rebound year just a rebound and nothing better? Probably not. His BABIP was .305, but it was a low .271 the previous season. He'll probably hit .280 or around that for your team. His BB% was low for him at 6.9 (career 8.2, so it wasn't down a whole lot), so his OBP will probably stay around .340. As for his SLG, a move to a more pitcher-friendly stadium will probably bring it down closer to .500. Now, let's account for age, and he should be a .270/.340/.480 player next season. I can think of a lot of teams in need of that.
As for the price-tag, the article mentions it would take two major-league-ready players, and his contract calls for $11.5M next season and an option for '10 at $12M with a $1M butout. He's affordable from a money standpoint. As for prospects, it doesn't seem to be too much. Would the White Sox take a combination of Gorkys Hernandez/Josh Anderson/Charlie Morton/Jo-Jo Reyes/Brent Lillibridge?
He's 35 next season, so he's beginning to reach that time in his career where he should start to decline, but declining from .292/.344/.541 could still help a lot of teams. Dye's a pretty athletic and well-built guy who played 151 games in the outfield, so he's still able to help out an NL team. But will he still let you down? He just had a rebound year. Was the rebound year just a rebound and nothing better? Probably not. His BABIP was .305, but it was a low .271 the previous season. He'll probably hit .280 or around that for your team. His BB% was low for him at 6.9 (career 8.2, so it wasn't down a whole lot), so his OBP will probably stay around .340. As for his SLG, a move to a more pitcher-friendly stadium will probably bring it down closer to .500. Now, let's account for age, and he should be a .270/.340/.480 player next season. I can think of a lot of teams in need of that.
As for the price-tag, the article mentions it would take two major-league-ready players, and his contract calls for $11.5M next season and an option for '10 at $12M with a $1M butout. He's affordable from a money standpoint. As for prospects, it doesn't seem to be too much. Would the White Sox take a combination of Gorkys Hernandez/Josh Anderson/Charlie Morton/Jo-Jo Reyes/Brent Lillibridge?
Big Papi Pops Manny, Bay
ESPN reported an interview David Ortiz had with a radio station about Manny's end with Boston. Here's a few quotes:
"The Manny situation was a tough situation for the team, for us the teammates, for him as a player," Ortiz said. "He was trying to get to be out, everybody knows, it's not news, for the past few years and it was something that it was getting worse and worse and worse every year." "Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings," Ortiz said. "You know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else."
It's interesting that Manny's best friend essentially said that Manny had gotten to the point he didn't want to be there anymore. He wouldn't say Manny dogged it (and Manny's stats show he didn't), but he didn't exactly stick up for his friend, either. However, my favorite quote is after the interviewer asked Ortiz if they would have won the World Series with Manny. He said:
"Probably," Ortiz said. "I'm not going to lie to you, probably."
Zing! Jason Bay, you suck apparently. But, I'd like to think they would have won the World Series if Ortiz had been healthy.
Jason Bay: .341/.471/.634, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R, 3 2B, 9 BB, 12 K
David Ortiz: .186/.327/.349, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 9 BB, 13 K
"The Manny situation was a tough situation for the team, for us the teammates, for him as a player," Ortiz said. "He was trying to get to be out, everybody knows, it's not news, for the past few years and it was something that it was getting worse and worse and worse every year." "Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings," Ortiz said. "You know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else."
It's interesting that Manny's best friend essentially said that Manny had gotten to the point he didn't want to be there anymore. He wouldn't say Manny dogged it (and Manny's stats show he didn't), but he didn't exactly stick up for his friend, either. However, my favorite quote is after the interviewer asked Ortiz if they would have won the World Series with Manny. He said:
"Probably," Ortiz said. "I'm not going to lie to you, probably."
Zing! Jason Bay, you suck apparently. But, I'd like to think they would have won the World Series if Ortiz had been healthy.
Jason Bay: .341/.471/.634, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R, 3 2B, 9 BB, 12 K
David Ortiz: .186/.327/.349, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 9 BB, 13 K
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