Trevor Hoffman

Chicks dig the change-up.

He's 41 and just had the worst year ... well ... pretty much in his career, only slightly better than his 1995 campaign. And the Milwaukee Brewers want him. Then again, he is the all-time saves leader and he converted 30 of 34 save opportunities last season. So, what's right -- his age or his talent?

Last season, Trevor Hoffman was 3-6 with a 3.77 ERA in only 45.1 IP, but he did, as stated above, convert 30/34 SVO. Is he getting worse? Well, his K/9 of 9.13 was his best mark in five years, and his BB/9 of 1.79 was one of the best of his career. So, his stuff doesn't seem to have diminished. His LD% was 13.4, and that was much lower than it has been in years past. They didn't hit him any harder. All in all, however, his FIP was 3.99, his worst since 2001. It had to come from somewhere. Well, it was his home run rate, which ballooned to 13.8%. His career rate is 6.8%. Did he lose the luster on that magic change-up? Considering his line-drives and strikeouts were fine, it couldn't have gotten too much worse. At least, it couldn't have been any worse than it was before.

So, how will he do next year? My guess is he'll rebound. His career FIP is 3, exactly, and I bet he's more in the 3.20-3.30 range next season. Acceptable, but not great. Bill James has him down for a 3.00 ERA next season, but Marcel hammers him with a 3.70 ERA (presumably because of his age). Age and injuries could certainly hurt him, but it's not like 41 is too old. A one year deal wouldn't be a bad idea. Two might be pushing it.