Derek Lowe

I'm a little surprised he's still available.

The Mets tried to give Derek Lowe a 3-year/$36M deal, but he wasn't impressed. He came back and said that he wanted $16M/season. Jon Heyman, then, stated that the Mets, Phillies, and Braves are in heavy competition for the sinker-baller, and the Red Sox and Brewers are still in the mix. First, I thought the Braves weren't interested, but I'm not surprised that they would be now. Second, if the Brewers could add Lowe and Ben Sheets, they could become a contender again. Third, was last year an aberration for Lowe?

Lowe was excellent this past season. He was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 IP. His GB/FB rate of 2.63 is stellar, but it was well below his career 3.32 and his 3.38 of 2007. His K/9 of 6.27 was above his career 5.91 but below his 6.64 from 2007. Neither of the two should scare anyone. He'll likely see his groundball rate climb back closer to 3, and even if it doesn't, it's good enough to keep him successful regardless. The strikeout rate is fine. What I worry about is the walk rate. It was an astounding 1.92 last season, but that is way down from his career 2.53. The previous season saw him walk 2.66 every nine innings. He's due to see that jump back to his career norm (an interesting side note -- he threw first pitch strikes 59.2% of the time, which is around his career norm, so why did he walk so few people?). His FIP last season was 3.26, so he didn't get lucky from having a good defense. And, his last two seasons saw him have FIP's of 3.97 and 3.68. He should be closer to those next season. His HR/FB rate of 9.5% is a little low, and it will probably go up next season (maybe even way up if he goes to Philly).

Lowe will be 36 next season, so teams are understandably concerned about his age. But, he's been very durable and successful. I'd like to see the Braves try to grab him for 3 years/$58M. It's a lot of money, but the Braves have enough. If the money kept the number of years to three, I'd like the deal. I'm sure the Mets and Phillies (maybe less so for the Phillies) would like that as well. More years would probably be a bad idea. After three, he'll be 38 at the end. He probably won't be an ace at the beginning of the contract, and therefore, I don't think he'll be one at the end. The Mets initial offer was probably low because they thought they were the only ones involved. Then again, they may be the only ones involved anyway, considering the lack of veracity in the rumor mill lately.