20 December 2008

Vernon Wells

I wonder how much he's actually done this.


According to league sources and John Heyman, the Blue Jays have taken offers for Vernon Wells. Other than an amazing 2003 and really good 2006, Vernon Wells has been a relative disappointment. I say relative because his numbers are still really compared to most center fielders. If your team needs an outfielder (which the Braves do), should they go after Wells?

Offensively, Wells is pretty good. However, his .300/.343/.496 isn't what people expect from him. I'm not sure why, though. It's pretty much his career line of .283/.332/.480, which really isn't terrible. He's a legit 25-30 HR guy that can also hit 30+ 2B. He's more of a three-hitter, but the Braves could insert him in the four slot. His BB% is a low 6.8%, but he doesn't strike out a whole lot either (13.9%). His LD% was a little low for him (17.4 to his career 19.5). His BABIP was pretty close to his career .295 (.299), so I wouldn't expect him to do much better or worse than last season at the dish. Defensively, he's a decent center fielder, but I guess he could be a great left fielder while putting Jordan Schafer or Josh Anderson in center (most teams would probably be comfortable with him in center). Age-wise, he just turned 30, so for the next few seasons, he'll be in his prime.

Unfortunately, this isn't in a vacuum. His contract is a bit hefty. Remaining on his contract is '09 for $10M, 2010 for $21.5M, 2011 for $23M, and 2012, 2013, and 2014 for $21M. That's a lot of money. To get a trade done and receive anything back, the Blue Jays can probably make the other team pay the 2009 salary, but they'll probably need to give enough money to get the others down closer to the $12-15M range. As for his age, he'll be 35 at the end of his contract, so if he moves to left, he'll probably stay pretty productive through the end of his contract (even with the move, he'd probably still be a good-hitting corner outfielder).

The other worry is his health. Long-term contracts are usually a bad idea, and he still has six years left. He injured his hamstring last season, but he has played close to 150 games for most of his career. Moving him to left could potentially help his hamstring, or he could become the next Chipper Jones/Ken Griffey Jr. (Is it sad that mine and my brother's favorite players both had major hamstring issues in their career or is this like everybody having heart disease in their family?).

Next, what prospects do you have to give up for him? If you pay all the contract, you shouldn't have to give up much at all. If the Blue Jays pay a hefty part of it (I'm not sure they would if they're trading him for economic reasons), it might take a top prospect and a few other decent guys.

Should your team try to get him? Probably not. A six-year deal is pretty scary unless the Blue Jays were to pay a decent amount for the last five years. I'd give up the prospects for him, but I wouldn't pay the money for him. He's not that good. If the Blue Jays were willing to eat some of the contract, I'd think about it.

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