Updated (10:44 PM): In case you were wondering, Vicente Padilla, Millwood's rotation partner, is not worth getting for anyone. It would be like giving someone a pair of socks you'd already worn holes in (not a good gift to being with and even worse after you've seen it). Why did the Rangers give him 5 years/$55M?
Yet another failed Ranger acquisition.First, let's look at his ERA. Last season, it was an abysmal 5.07, but let's also notice that his FIP was a whole run lower at 4.02. Indeed, his career FIP is 3.83 even though his career ERA is 4.06. People want him to be the 2.68 guy he was in Atlanta, but his FIP that season (1999) was actually 3.52. He wasn't that good, either.
So why was he so bad last season? BABIP is a good place to start. It was an astounding .366, and in his career in as a Ranger, his BABIP's have been .313, .348, and .366, all of which are high. Part of that could be a decline in talent-level, but I think ball park has more to do with it (he's a half run better away than at home in Texas). Another issue was his LOB% which has been below 70% each season in Texas, making matters worse. Shockingly, however, Millwood's HR/FB rate is still around 10 for his seasons in Texas. When you look at this, it seems that his career in Texas has gone sour due more to luck, ballpark, and subsequent lack of confidence, but has his talent dropped?
A look at LD% shows us that 25.3% of the balls put in play were line-drives, but before you freak, he also gave up 24.% while in Philadelphia and would come back two years later to have a 2.98 ERA in Cleveland. So that doesn't help. His K/9 of 6.67 is below his career 7.17 mark, but it is better than his two previous seasons and almost equal to his 2005 Indians season. His BB/9 was 2.61 (lower than his career 2.74) and right around his career norms and better than his 3.49 the year before. Millwood is also a slight groundball pitcher with a career 1.27 mark, and with his groundball rate at 1.20, he was pretty close to that mark. From this, it doesn't seem that Millwood has lost a lot of talent, but his pitch speed has declined about .6 mph each of the past four seasons (but take that for what it is).
So why does a move to the NL, or at least out of Texas make sense. One, it gets him out of Arlington Stadium, which has to help automatically. Two, a move to the NL would be another drop in overall talent in lineups, which has to help. Three, it would be a change of scenery as being in Texas has to be frustrating (granted, he was the one to choose money over place to pitch -- that should be a lesson to you kids out there). Four, going anywhere else would help purely based on the fact that Texas was the worst defensive team in baseball last year. Put all those things together, and Millwood could be a 3.70-4.00 pitcher who pitches around 200 IP (although he hasn't done that since 2006 -- 172 and 168 the past two seasons). As for the contract, $11M and $12M over the next two seasons wouldn't be the worst contract in the world, especially if it works out. The Braves say they aren't interested now, but they may be when they lose out on some free-agents.
2 reMarks:
It seems like the Mets should be interested. He would make a fine 4 or 5. The Mets don't seem to be after the free agent pitchers in the same way that other teams are, yet they need a ton of help in their rotation.
Yeah, the Mets were one of the teams I was thinking about. The Cards, Dodgers, and Nationals were a couple others. He should come cheaply in terms of prospects due to his performance and salary.
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