Handicapping the AL East

In case you were wondering, the guy freaked out is Hank.

The Yankees just spent close to a half billion dollars on three different, talented people. There have been several reactions to this (besides the outrage of having spent so much money that the Yankees will continue to subsidize all the other teams). One, the inevitable "the Yankees are the team to beat and eventual World Series Champions" reaction, which is just silly considering the past seven years. Two, Red Sox and Rays fans have had the "we were the teams in the playoffs and should be the favorites until dethroned", which is just ridiculous (seriously, why are the reigning teams supposedly the teams "to beat" even if the other teams have improved and are better on paper. The situation has changed, but the other team is the team to beat based on last year's results?). Three, there is the "they have improved but still aren't as good as the Rays or Red Sox" reaction, which could be perfectly reasonable but terribly wrong. So let's take a look.

The Starting Rotations:

Yankees
CC Sabathia 17-10, 2.70 ERA
AJ Burnett 18-10, 4.07 ERA
Chien-Ming Wang 19-7, 3.70 ERA (2007)
Joba Chamberlain 3-1, 2.76 ERA (as starter)
Phil Hughes 0-4, 6.62 ERA

Red Sox
Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3, 2.90 ERA
Jon Lester 16-6, 3.21 ERA
Josh Beckett 12-10, 4.03 ERA
Tim Wakefield 10-11, 4.13 ERA
Clay Buchholz 2-9, 6.75 ERA

Rays
Scott Kazmir 12-8, 3.49 ERA
James Shields 14-8, 3.56 ERA
Matt Garza 11-9, 3.70 ERA
Andy Sonnanstine 13-9, 4.38 ERA
David Price ???

Okay, so who do you pick? The Yankees have the most upside. The Red Sox are the most dependable. The Rays are the younger, cheaper bunch with the most depth. Each has their advantage. The Yankees, however, still do not have the overall advantage, especially considering that 3 of their starters have injury issues. The Yankees and Red Sox could still add another pitcher, which would give them improved depth and take away their unknowns in Hughes and Buchholz, respectively. That would make them better on paper than the Rays, who don't have a true ace but three possible ones, who cannot add another starter and must go with an unknown in Price, Jeff Niemann, Chris Talbot, or Wade Davis, but the Rays have the depth to sustain a few injuries, whereas the others may not have the major-league ready pitchers just yet. The Yankees aren't better here, but at least, they brought themselves up to the others after being much worse last season.

The Bullpens:

Yankees
Mariano Rivera 1.40 ERA, 38/39 SV
Damaso Marte 4.02 ERA
Edwar Ramirez 3.90 ERA

Red Sox
Jonathan Papelbon 2.34 ERA, 41/46 SV
Hideki Okajima 2.61 ERA
Justin Masterson 2.36 ERA (as reliever)

Rays
Troy Percival 4.53 ERA, 28/32 SV
JP Howell 2.22 ERA
Grant Balfour 1.54 ERA

Forgive me for only going three deep, but I don't really trust relievers to repeat year-to-year. I used the closers and set-up men thinking the others would probably end up roughly similar (can I qualify anymore in five words?). Looking here, the Red Sox have the clear advantage. Rivera is the best closer of the group, but they don't have the dependability and talent outside of him that the Red Sox have outside of Papelbon (Papelbon not being too shabby himself). Adding on a Brian Fuentes could help the Yankees get to even. The Rays are a bit further back because their closer is not dependable (at least relatively), but they climb back with the better depth (the Red Sox are about even in this regard). The Yankees aren't better here, either, and they're worse than their rival.

The Lineups:

Yankees
Derek Jeter .300/.363/.408
Robinson Cano .271/.305/.410
Mark Teixeira .308/.410/.552
Alex Rodriguez .302/.392/.573
Xavier Nady .305/.357/.510
Hideki Matsui .294/.370/.424
Jorge Posada .268/.364/.411
Johnny Damon .303/.375/.461
Melky Cabrera .249/.301/.341
Nick Swisher .219/.332/.410

Red Sox
Jacoby Ellsbury .280/.336/.394
Dustin Pedroia .326/.376/.493
Kevin Youkilis .312/.390/.569
David Ortiz .264/.369/.507
Jason Bay .286/.373/.522
JD Drew .280/.408/.519
Mike Lowell .274/.338/.461
Jed Lowrie .258/.339/.400
TBD-Catcher

Rays
Akinori Iwamura .274/.349/.380
BJ Upton .273/.383/.401
Carlos Peña .247/.377/.494
Evan Longoria .272/.343/.531
Carl Crawford .273/.319/.400
Willy Aybar .253/.327/.410
Matt Joyce .252/.339/.492
Dioner Navarro .295/.349/.407
Jason Bartlett .286/.329/.361

Immediately, we can pretty much throw out the Rays offensively, but if they add a Dunn or Burrell, this conversation gets a little more interesting but not enough. The Yankees and Red Sox are built very similarly. Both get on base and slug. However, I'll give the ever-so-slight edge to the Yankees. It's always better to have your 3-4-5 hitters in their primes, and we simply don't know who will catch for the Red Sox (if it ends up being Taylor Teagarden, we might have to revisit this). The addition of Teixeira, in my opinion, gives the Yankees an edge here.

The Defenses:

I could look through the defensive numbers, but I believe we can all agree that the Rays have far-and-away the best defense among the three teams. The infield is really good, catcher is nailed down by a guy they can trust to be there, and the outfield (with the addition of Joyce) is now better than it was last season. The Yankees have the holes at short, second, center, left, and possibly catcher. The Red Sox have holes possibly at catcher and whenever Lowell and Drew need to take a day off, but the Red Sox are in better shape defensively than the Yankees.



Overall, this is a hard decision, but one thing's certain, the Yankees are not necessarily the team to beat next season. They have a good rotation, but it's not clearly better than the Rays' or Red Sox's (that construction seems weird). Their bullpen is thin on names, but having Rivera always makes them close to everyone else. Their offense is probably the best of the group, but a bounce-back year from Big Papi could change my mind about that. Their defense, however, is probably still a major weakness (I say possibly because Swisher in left instead of Damon/Matsui would be a major upgrade and there's the chance that Cano and Jeter could be better next season). What the Yankees have done is get themselves back up to the other two, and maybe a bit past. One thing to remember is the Yankees' age. Matsui, Jeter, Damon, and Posada are all declining. For the Red Sox, Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew are declining. For the Rays, no one really fits that bill. Who will win out? I guess we'll have to watch because it seems as though there are three really good (90+ wins) teams in the AL East next season.