20 December 2008

Pat Burrell for the Rays?

Florida was good for Burrell the first time around, right?


I've been thinking about this for the past couple weeks, but I wasn't sure how plausible it was, mainly because I didn't know how much money the Rays have/are willing to spend. John Heyman, however, answers my question by saying the Rays have, indeed, talked to Burrell about their DH spot. Now, we have to take this with a grain of salt, of course. Just because the Rays have talked to him does not mean they will sign him or have further interest in signing him. Does he make sense, though?

He'll be 32 all next season and is probably coming out of his prime, but I wouldn't worry too much about him declining next season (or really in the next two or three). He's been consistently around the 30 HR mark, but that might be a little lower (maybe 25?) when he moves away from Citizen's Bank Park. Yet, he's remarkably consistent home and away (.259/.369/.482 home vs. .255/.362/.488 away), so maybe he won't be any worse. He's pretty much a .260/.370/.490 hitter, which is pretty good. His OPS+ has also been consistently around 125. Plugging him in that lineup makes a lot of sense. A middle of the order with Burrell-Peña-Longoria or Longoria-Peña-Burrell would be really good (I only give those two because of the righty-lefty-righty, but with Upton hitting so hard, he could very easily be placed somewhere in there). As for his defense, DH's don't play defense. This makes so much sense it's ridiculous.

So how long do you sign him for? I'd give him two or three years. There aren't many big hitters coming in the Tampa system, so he shouldn't really block anyone. Desmond Jennings might be the best, but I imagine he'll come up when Crawford is traded/signed as a free-agent (option for 2010 but probably gone after that). Burrell has been pretty durable throughout his career, and DHing only helps that. The big thing is the money, but he's worth $10-13M.

The other options have some flaws. Adam Dunn is about as good of an option, but he'll probably be more expensive. However, a Peña-Longoria-Dunn lineup would be terrifying, but I think the Rays want a righty with power. Milton Bradley is another good option, but he's got durability issues, even at DH. I'd avoid him in favor of the more dependable Burrell (who I know is inconsistent but who's perfect?). Bobby Abreu is older, as expensive if not more, and left-handed. Manny Ramirez is waaaay too expensive. There are better options than Garrett Anderson. Jason Giambi is an intriguing option, but he's getting old. I think Burrell and Dunn are better options at a similar, if not less-expensive, price.

I like the Rays and what they're doing. It's hard to disagree with their techniques lately. That Jackson-for-Joyce was a steal, wasn't it?

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