Offseason Series: Baltimore Orioles

Boy, they got rid of him at the right time didn't they? So ... who's next?

I feel like I keep repeating myself, but another year leads to another disappointment for the Orioles. On May 15th, the Orioles were 22-19 and looking respectable, but by the end of the season, they finished 68-93, meaning they were 46-74 the rest of the way. Offense wasn't the problem as they finished 11th in the majors in runs scored as guys like Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis, and Melvin Mora had very good seasons. However, when you finish 29th in ERA, you just can't win. If the Orioles wanted to win, they might want to take the Braves' stance and add a few veteran starters for next season, but is that all they need?

Catcher is a bright spot for the Orioles in a two-fold way. First, Ramon Hernandez is a solid backstop. Second, Matt Wieters (.365/.460/.625 in AA) is ready for the Majors, and I almost assume he'll be the starter come early April. With Hernandez being a good catcher and the Marlins, Mets, Royals, Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers potentially needing a catcher, he has some trade value. He's owed $8M next year and holds an option for $8.5M for 2010, so he wouldn't be terribly taxing and the Orioles could afford to eat some of his salary for one season. Then, Wieters could come up and start.

No one really knows who will play first base next season for the Orioles. Kevin Millar could be re-signed, but I wouldn't waste my money for the 20 HR. Aubrey Huff is the DH, and I don't think they want him at first. Mark Teixeira is the first baseman of their dreams, but I don't see that happening either. I'm not sure if the Yankees will really give him everything he wants, but I'm guessing the Angels make the biggest play for him. Tim Dierkes thinks he's not worth it, but signing Tex would mean the Orioles have a clean-up hitter when they're ready to contend in a couple years. It just depends on two things: a) are the Yankees interested and b) can they make the biggest offer. Oscar Salazar (31 next season) may be a bit old, but he really did well at AAA (.316/.371/.512) and could make a decent stop-gap in his prime. Can Nolan Reimold play first?

Second base seems to be the one certainty in the infield with Brian Roberts there. They are talking about an extension with him, but I think it would be best to trade him while his value is high. The Indians, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Dodgers, and Cardinals would be interested. Roberts may not be as productive when the Orioles are ready to contend. They should trade him and fill holes. Elder Torres and Mike McCoy would be possible in-house replacements.

Melvin Mora at third base is another veteran who might find himself in a new uniform come next season. He had a comeback season and has some trade value, although he may not bring back a huge piece, and the Dodgers, Brewers, Indians, and Angels could be interested. Mike Costanzo and Scott Moore are possible replacements should Mora be traded.

Shortstop is a major weakness for the Orioles, and I imagine they'll try to fix that this offseason by trades. I think it would be interesting if they made a bid for Furcal, but he and Roberts are in the same situation that they may not be productive when the team is ready. They might be though. As for farm guys, Luis Hernandez and Blake Davis are possibly the best options, but they're not good ones.

Outfield is the source of optimism for the Orioles. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are an excellent start as they are 24 and 23, respectively. Those guys are solid players that will be around for awhile. Luke Scott is another solid player, but I expect he could be traded this offseason or at next year's deadline when Nolan Reimold should be ready to take over. Reimold, Jones, and Markakis have the potential to be a very good, young outfield for the next few years.

The starting rotation is another place where major changes are needed. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid start to the rotation, but one pitcher does not a rotation make. Daniel Cabrera has proven over and over again that he is not capable of being a productive pitcher, and the Orioles should let him go. Somehow, I think they'll give him one more chance because they control him for another year, but why pay him millions for him to be terrible. Matt Albers could be inserted into the rotation, but he wasn't any good in that spot this season (6.35 ERA). Chris Waters, Brian Burres, Radhamez Liz, and Garrett Olson are the favorites to fill out the rotation, but Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, and Bradley Bergesen are AA guys who have some promise and might get some looks. Troy Patton is another option, but he tore his labrum and probably won't be an option next season. Trades will be the most likely avenue of improvement, but free-agency is another. If the Orioles want to contend, they can look at a Burnett, Dempster, or Oliver Perez, but I wouldn't want to waste the money just yet. There are decent but unspectacular free-agents after next year they might go after instead.

As for the bullpen, it could be good. It could be bad. Chris Ray might be ready in time to help, but George Sherill looks to be the closer for next season. Jim Johnson, Jamie Walker, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Alberto Castillo, and Fernando Cabrera seem to be the others. Rocky Cherry and Kam Mikolio are other options. They don't need to waste more money here.

Could next season be good for the Orioles? It's actually a reasonable possibility. Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Mora, and Huff could make a pretty good offense. With the addition of two good starters, they might be able to make a run. The addition of Chris Ray would only help that. The thing is that the Orioles aren't the only guys looking for starters, and I doubt most pitchers would want to come to Baltimore. In my opinion, next year isn't the year, but if they trade some veterans and get back some young starting pitchers, middle infielders, and first baseman, they could be ready in 2010.