Update: Jason at IIATMS just told me that it should be over their career-high, so you can strike Ervin Santana from that list. However, does anyone else think it's a bad idea to go so far over a previous season? Sometimes, I think we over-analyze, but it seems at that stage of a career it could still be a problem to have a much larger workload than a previous year.
He's not safe, but his rotation mate seems to be.Tim Lincecum (SF) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 177.1 IP
2008 --> 215.2 IP
People have always talked about his freakish delivery and how it could have problems. Will it come to roost in '09?
Cole Hamels (PHI) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 183.1 IP
2008 --> 220.1 IP
Will the Phillies have to survive with Myers/Moyer next season?
Chad Billingsley (LAD) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 147 IP
2008 --> 192.2 IP
This guy is one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors, but he'll top 200 K. What about next year?
Jon Lester (BOS) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 153.2 IP
2008 --> 197.1 IP
He's a great comeback story, but will he have to make another comeback in 2010?
John Danks (CWS) --> 23 years old
2007 --> 139 IP
2008 --> 176 IP
And he was just starting to realize his potential.
Ervin Santana (LAA) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 150 IP
2008 --> 205 IP
He's already had this problem as '06 predicted an '07 decline (which happened). Now, they could be repeating the same mistake.
Joe Saunders (LAA) --> 27 years old
2007 --> 193.2 IP
2008 --> 192 IP
He hasn't reached it yet, but the playoffs could push him over. Geez, maybe the Angels should invest in Sabathia because it seems like they're going to need him.
Ricky Nolasco (FLA) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 55 IP
2008 --> 199.1 IP
Does this rule count for injuries, which Nolasco had las season? Still, that's a lot of innings for Nolasco.
Zach Greinke (KC) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 122 IP
2008 --> 195.1 IP
Trade him. Trade him now.
Matt Garza (TB) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 175 IP
2008 --> 179.2 IP
Like Saunders, the playoffs could do him in (a la Fausto Carmona).
Mike Pelfrey (NYM) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 152.2 IP
2008 --> 188.2 IP
John Maine redux?
Jair Jurrjens (ATL) --> 22 years old
2007 --> 142.2 IP
2008 --> 181.1 IP
Crap.
Gavin Floyd (CWS) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 176.2 IP
2008 --> 188.1 IP
The playoffs can create a long list of problems next year.
Nick Blackburn (MIN) --> 26 years old
2007 --> 160.1 IP
2008 --> 180.2 IP
Another playoff casualty?
Guys like Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Felix Hernandez, Armando Galarraga, Matt Cain, and John Lannan seem to be safe. None should go too far over previous years. But, doesn't this seem like a long, influential list of young arms, and it's not even complete. I stopped after the top 50 pitchers in terms of ERA. Is the focus on young pitching causing this? Is this a real problem? I don't know, but I'll label it and come back to it.
8 comments:
If the Royals trade Greinke, I give up on them. It will jsut show how they don't care about the fans.
It will be a huge mistake. I'll be done with them.
If the Royals trade Greinke, I give up on them. It will jsut show how they don't care about the fans.
It will be a huge mistake. I'll be done with them.
If the Royals trade Greinke, I give up on them. It will jsut show how they don't care about the fans.
It will be a huge mistake. I'll be done with them.
Geez, Ron. Calm down buddy.
Mark, note one thing: the 30 IP rule is over their previous professional high-water mark, not necessarily last year. Check Ervin Santana's numbers when you get a chance; you might find that he had more IP in a prior year. just a hunch.
You can add in minor league stats in any current year.
True, but is it still a good thing to go that far past a previous year's output? I would think it would be almost as bad.
However, thank you for pointing that out.
Mark, I hear ya and while I do agree, I am only following Tom Verducci's "year after effect" definition, which, however confusing, uses +30 IP over a previous total career high (incl minor league IP).
I'll take a deeper dive as time permits, maybe before the football games tomorrow!
Fair enough. Anyway, there is only one or two of those players who fits that particular category. The others fit in his definition (except Nolasco) I believe.
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