Javier Vazquez to Be Trade Bait?

He won't be Montreal good, but a change of scenery to an NL park should help considerably.

According to Joe Cowley, trading Javier Vazquez will be the top priority for GM Kenny Williams this off-season. Vazquez was really bashed in the final weeks (by his coach and opposing bats) and has gained a reputation for not being able to pitch under pressure. He followed that up by pitching poorly in the playoffs. So, does anyone want him? Should the Braves go get him?

Well, he'll be 32 next season, which isn't too old, and he is under contract for $11.5M the next two seasons, which isn't terrible. He is extremely durable as he's always made over 26 starts (the 26 starts was in 1999). The big problem is his 4.67 ERA from this season and his relative weakness pitching in the AL, so a move to the NL would be the best option for him. Looking at last season, his K/9 was 8.64 (he's consistently in that range), his BB/9 was 2.64 (a little high for him but really good overall), and his BABIP was .328 (quite high meaning he should come down next year). Further stating he was better than shown is that his FIP was 3.74 (FIP- Fielding Independent Pitching; what his ERA should have been essentially). However, his .92 GB/FB isn't very good, and it doesn't translate well in Chicago.

I think he's a better pitcher than most give him credit for, and a return to the NL will most likely bring his ERA back down. If I were the Braves, I would consider trading for him to fit in that no.2 slot. $11.5M isn't a lot of money, and it's essentially a short-term contract allowing the minor league pitchers to continue developing. I think it would be a good idea for the Braves to put together a deal for him, but I wouldn't give up a major prospect for him.

Rounding the Bases

Updated

Yummy.

Here are some quick hits this morning. I'll have more on this afternoon, but I'm off to an Ale-8-1 factory tour. It's better than it sounds.

- Tim Wakefield's perpetual option will probably be picked up today. For $4M, it's really a no-brainer for a guy who made 18 quality starts last season.

- The Rays are staying positive about their future. While they may be better next season, they won't win as many games.

- AJ Burnett will decide by Monday whether or not he'll opt-out of his contract. I wait on the edge of my seat.

- Phil Rogers has his take on how to shorten the season. I'll use his words, "Many people advanced many ideas during the down time weather delays caused in Philadelphia. We listened. We heard 'em all. We rolled our eyes."

- An up-to-date list of free-agents. The odd thing is that it's from the Detroit Free Press, and the Tigers have no business worrying about free-agents.

- Ray Rotto thinks the World Series was a classic. I do believe he's in the minority on this, but then again, he writes for the A's. To him, that was good baseball.

- Andruw Jones wants to come back and finish his career as a Brave. I thought his career was already over.

- Ken Macha is the new Brewer manager. It wasn't such a tough choice when the other two were Willie Randolph and Bob Brenly.

- Phillies prove doubters wrong. Aren't there always doubters?

- The headline: The Marlins Trade Jacobs for Relief. That can be taken so many ways.

- Richard Justice thinks the Astros have a blueprint for rebuilding the team through the farm system like the Rays and Phillies (how many articles like this has everyone seen?) because trading all your prospects for Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada and Randy Wolf is a good way to rebuild from within.

- Bob Brenly is staying with the Cubs. I think the phrase "forced because no one else wants him" should be somewhere in there.

- Josh Byrnes likes his team. I think most do as well.

Is It Just Me or Should They Be Happy About This?

Still haven't.

Nick Piecoro ponders next season's draft for the Diamondbacks. They have three Type A guys (Orlando Hudson, Adam Dunn, and Juan Cruz) that will all get big multi-year deals, and a Type B in Brandon Lyon. All totaled if they leave, they give the D-Backs nine of the first 62 (potentially) picks in next year's draft. Piecoro goes on to explain how this will cause a rise in costs for the team. But, isn't having nine (nine) of the first 62 picks a good thing? I'd rather spend the $9M (his estimate) on those nine players than $9M on some middle-class free-agent. Next year's draft should significantly upgrade their farm system, so I'm surprised he seems worried. I don't think even $15M spent in the draft would be that bad for essentially nine first and second round picks. Especially when the payroll will really jump in a few years when Webb and Haren's contracts rise and Drew, Upton, and Reynolds receive arbitration, they'll need the prospects to help out because the payroll will be significantly higher (the other side to having such a young team). Again, I'm not really sure why Piecoro is worried. I'd be ecstatic.

Mike Jacobs Trade

I had completely forgotten he was a Met.

The first major trade of the off-season will probably have a minor effect on next season, but it's at least worth mentioning. The Marlins traded Mike Jacobs to the Royals for reliever Leo Nuñez. This trade has been trashed by a lot of people so far looking at it from the Royals perspective, but it really doesn't seem that bad. Jacobs is a useful offensive player that will hit for power. The thing is that the Royals didn't really need a first baseman. They have Kila Ka'aihue, Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahen already battling for the two corner infield spots, and Billy Butler and Ryan Shealy are also n the mix there and at DH. My guess is that Gordon stays at third, Jacobs takes first, and Butler goes to the DH spot. Then, they trade Teahen to the Indians or someone else to fix other holes. Butler could also be moved for pitching or something else while Ka'aihue takes first and moves Jacobs to DH. I'm not sure what this accomplishes, which is why most people are angry about the trade.

The Royals gave up a reliever in Leo Nuñez. His 2.98 ERA last season and 3.92 from the year before make him a valuable reliever but he only threw 48 and 43 innings, respectively, during those two seasons. To make matters worse, his K/9 dropped from 7.63 to 4.84, and his BB/9 rose from 2.06 to 2.74. That's not terribly disturbing considering that's still above-average, but the K rate is a little scary. His BABIP of .280 was about average, but his GB/FB rate was only .91 (although up from .66 from last year). The most telling stat might be his HR/FB rate of 3%. Um, that won't hold up in court. I expect Nuñez's ERA to go back closer to 4 next season, and honestly, you could probably get that from a minor-leaguer you already have.

Overall, this trade really makes no sense. It really isn't bad for either team, but it isn't good either. The Royals now have some added flexibility as for trades and such, but most people aren't looking for first baseman. However, this frees up Mark Teahen a little more, and I'm sure someone will give up a decent amount for him. As for Florida, they probably could have gotten more from a guy ready to enter his prime with a 32 HR season under his belt than a decent 25-year old reliever. I'm guessing the Royals probably needed the pitching more, but I don't think he was essential in any way. Again, I'm a little confused by the trade, but it doesn't necessarily hurt either team. I guess.

Rounding the Bases

What a goofy picture.

I spent an hour the other day going through each team and finding the online newspapers of the respective cities of each team in order to get more news about each team. As a result, I feel that I should live up the name of the site and start giving news from around the league and their links in kind of a Buster Olney style. I'll still do specific pieces of course, but I'll try to do these daily or at least as often as I can. My guess is that today will be longer than most, but without further ado:

- The Yankees are reportedly thinking about Manny Ramirez because they don't have enough old corner outfielders who just hit.

- The Red Sox wanted a new Spring Training location, but they ended up where they started. Lee County will build them a new complex worth $80M, but don't worry. The Red Sox have to pay a $500,000 lease fee each year. So that means they'll pay that off in like 160 years.

- After the Rays lost, someone tried to figure out all the ways they won this season. And I just thought it was the pitching and defense everyone kept talking about.

- Go through the excruciatingly painful Orioles season here. All 162 games. Oh my ...

- Mike Jacobs was traded to Kansas City, which you might have known already, but even though everyone wants to pan the trade from the Royals' perspective, what exactly did Florida get in return? Maybe Ron can help the class. If anything else, just check out the euphoric picture of Jacobs (above). They couldn't have found a better picture?

- The Tigers fired Jeff Jones a month ago from his bullpen coaching duties, so they found their replacement today. Whadayano? It's Jeff Jones. I bet this is either because Jones opted out in the middle of his $55M contract or because no one else wanted to be deemed responsible for the fiasco that is the Tiger bullpen.

- To keep Alan Embree or not to keep Alan Embree. For his 4 ERA, I could think of a couple other ways to spend $3M.

- Torii Hunter feels "squeezed" that the Angels failed to advance, but I think when you lose in Game 4 of the five game series, you probably did a few other things wrong as well.

- Here's the Rangers top 5 pitching prospects because in Arlington, you can't get excited about what you have at the major-league level.

- Just in case you didn't know, the Phillies won the World Series.

- Just in case you didn't know, the Nationals did not win the World Series. (That was kind of a cheap shot wasn't it?)

- Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols won Fielding Bible Awards for their respective positions. I love Molina, but should you really get that award for making 10 errors and only throwing out 34% of base stealers?

- Aramis Ramirez was surprised to win the Hank Aaron Award. Yeah, so was everyone else. What do the bleacher bums say? Throw it back. Throw it back.

- The Pirates sent four pitchers to the minors hoping Paul Maholm can shoulder the load all by himself next season.

- The Reds are contemplating signing Mark Mulder to ensure that he stays hurt as a result of being under Dusty Baker.

- A headline you never want to see for a pitcher: Scherzer Goes Out with a Bang.

- This does not teach kids that gambling is bad.

- Selig values Padres' owner's leadership. Too bad his wife doesn't.

Street vs. Putz

Who will be his successor? As a Braves fan, please let it be Heilman. Please.

Okay, here's the situation. You're the Mets. You need a closer. You need a starting pitcher. You could use a new second baseman. You could use a new corner outfielder. Closer cannot take up all of your remaining budget for 2009. This means that K-Rod could be too expensive. Fuentes is less expensive, but he's probably still too expensive. Luckily, two AL West closers are on the market in JJ Putz and Huston Street. You have some decent prospects, but trading them further depletes a pretty depleted system. However, you're a big market team and to hell with the prospects. Who do you trade for? Putz or Street?

Huston Street

He'll be 25 next season, which is extremely young for a closer (K-Rod like almost), and he has two more years of arbitration. After having a 1.72 ERA his first season, he slipped to 3.31 the season after, down to 2.88 last season, and up to 3.73 this past season. Last season, he had an exceptional 11.34 K/9 that fell to 8.87 this season, but that was still better than his two earlier seasons. However, his BB/9 rose from 2.16 to 3.47, which is a bit troubling but can be corrected due to the small number of innings. His HR rate dropped, and his BABIP was .288, both aren't bad. The troubling aspect to him is his GB/FB rate of 0.88, which is nearly the same as previous seasons, but way down from the 1.10 from his rookie campaign. Another bad thing is that his FIP rose almost a point from his past three seasons (all in the mid 2's). Overall, it seems his walks caused the big jump in ERA, but that may not be too big a deal. At least, it doesn't seem his talent has dropped, just a bit of command. While he's not the 1.72 ERA of his first season (his LOB% was 83.3!), he's not as bad as his 3.73 ERA this season. I see him more as a mid 2 ERA as his FIP's indicate. That's better than most and certainly better than what the Mets have.

JJ Putz

He'll be 32 next season, and he is also under control for 2 more seasons at $5M and $8.5M. Therefore, he might be a bit more expensive, albeit not by much, but he is 6 years older. Putz also had a dropoff this past season. After an amazing 1.38 ERA last season, he posted a 3.88 ERA this season. What happened? A series of anamolies. Last season, his BABIP was .205 (extremely and unbelievably low), but his BABIP rose to .360 (really freakin' high). His K rate rose a little bit (about .6 to 10.88), but his BB/9 rapidly rose from 1.63 to 5.44. How that happened is beyond me, but that's a lot worse than the 1.3 rise in Street's. His HR/9 stayed the same, but his LOB% of 79.6 might be a bit high but much more realistic than last season's 94%. Holy Cow! An alarming trend, his GB/FB was once a healthy 1.53 two seasons ago, but it plummeted to 1.03 last season and to 0.98 this season. It seems Putz's dropoff had to do with his unrealistic 2007 campaign and his extremely high walk rate. My guess is that if he's healthy, things will return more to normal, maybe his 2.30 ERA of 2006.

So who do you choose? Street is much younger and almost as talented, but Putz has the higher K rate and seemingly more dominant performances. However, Street lost his closer job last season, but that might just mean that the price tag is a little lower. If that's true, Street is probably the better bet. However, if both teams want the same prospects, I'd probably rather have Putz for the next two seasons than Street.

No Harm, No Phoul as Phillies Win World Series

They can party like it's 1980.

After bashing Selig all week, all is well in the baseball world as the Phillies held on to win the World Series, besting the Rays 4-1. Fittingly, it ended with a nasty Lidge (Good for him!) slider as the Rays tried to end his streak of perfection. Rain delays or not, it was well worth the wait for the Phillies.

Oh, and Rollins said they would win 100 games this season. Well, not exactly. 102 games.

As for AL dominance, this doesn't change much, but the Phillies outplayed the Rays in this series. Were they the better team? The 162 game season says otherwise, but the seven-game season made its own statement.

When do we start hearing stories about Manuel's mother "helping them win the World Series"?

Now on to obsessing about next year ... The baseball season never sleeps, no matter the disappearance of Baseball Tonight.

Angels Exercise Options on Lackey and Guerrero, not Anderson

Is it bad that I initially thought this was a picture of Guerrero's hot zones even though one really hot one is out of the strike zone?

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (besides the absurdly long name, isn't it weird that the Angels are essentially named "The The Angels Angels") exercised the options for John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero, but they did not exercise Garrett Anderson's. None of this is really news. It was expected. Anderson may be re-signed for a smaller amount of money, but chances are the Angels will initially use that money to entice Mark Teixeira to stay.

The question now is what do they do next with the two people they exercised. John Lackey is the ace of the staff, but he'll be 31 after next season. Plus, the Angels already have a stellar young rotation behind him in Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jered Weaver with Nick Adenhart (who struggled last season but he is only 21) on the way. They won't necessarily need to overspend on an aging pitcher, but will they? As for Vladimir Guerrero, it's hard to believe he's only 32 because he's been around so long. Being 32 usually isn't a bad thing, but did you see how he ran the bases in the ALDS? His knees and body obviously seem to be going, but he did hit .303/.365/.521 with 27 HR and 91 RBI. He peaked for a long time from 1998-2004, but he's been declining ever since. He hasn't declined all that fast, but it's noticable that he has. When will he precipitously fall and will he be Angel when he does it? I guess that all depends on whether or not they sign Teixeira this offseason. Guerrero might be the biggest reason to re-sign Tex, but it won't be to protect Guerrero. It'll be to protect the The Angels Angels.

Prince on the Market

I still don't understand that relationship, but that's not the issue now.

Prince Fielder is now on the market. I still think a Fielder-for-Cain swap is pretty even and that the Giants should do it, but whatever. Other suitors?

Yankees
Aren't they always in the talks? Though I'm not sure they want to give up Hughes for him, I would.

Orioles
What young pitching do they have? Could they entice the Brewers with George Sherrill? Who takes over as Baltimore's closer?

Twins
The Twins have young pitching and could put Fielder where he belongs: DH.

A's
They definitely have young pitching and a need for power. Again, they would probably put him at DH, but Barton isn't immovable.

Angels
They are always in these discussions, but while trying to re-sign Tex or just letting Kendry Morales have at it, I doubt the Angels seriously bite on Fielder. It's not impossible though.

Giants
I definitely see a match here. Cain for Fielder. Or two of the minor leaguers they have for Fielder. Either way, the Giants need him.

Selig's "Decision"

He's made his share of gaffes, but what commissioner hasn't?

Okay, I have already seen the mountain of articles condemning Selig for yet another bad decision, but was it that bad of a decision?

First, was he wrong to not want to end the World Series in a rain-out? I think we all agree that he made the right decision here. I realize he essentially made up a rule, but there's no rule against it either. We didn't have an amendment against a third term as President until FDR actually did it. Then, they made it a rule against it. It's the same thing here. It had never happened before, and therefore, he made a decision. Now that it has happened, they can decide for the future if World Series games can end due to rain. However, I believe we all agree this part of the decision was correct.

Second, when were they supposed to end it? You can give me all the conspiracy theories you want about revenues, the Rays, and whatever else, but I genuinely believe they just wanted to finish the game. They didn't want to delay the game at all. They tried to push through the game to reach some conclusion. They stopped when they did because it had gotten too bad. Before, they had enough Quik-Dry to make things better, but after rain kept coming down, the infield looked like a swimming pool. To keep things in good condition, they would have had to stop time every two batters to put more stuff on the field. No one wanted that either.

Third, why would they tell us before the game about the game not ending because of rain? They seemed to believe that the weather was not going to be that bad. If he came out and said anything beforehand, we would've thought, "Great, I'm glad you told me, but can we please get on with the game." I don't think they thought the weather would really get bad enough. As for if it would have helped the umpires, I doubt it for the reason mentioned above. They wanted to finish the game, but eventually, it just got ridiculous.

Fourth, did anyone care to ask Selig what he would do about this scenario? I mean we can all use hindsight to blame him, but if you want to be all smart and analytical, why didn't you think of it before? Why didn't you ask him? We all expect him to be all-knowing, but he can't be. It's not a knock on him. It's just a truth. As prepared as I believe he tries to be, he can't be prepared for such an instance. In the 100+ years of the World Series, this had never happened. Never! It just happened on his watch. Ten years from now, all we'll see is Phillies win series 4-1 (or whatever it happens to be). Blame him now, but you won't care later.

Fifth, who actually called the delay last night? Not the postponement, the delay. I believe that is the umpires' decision, not Selig's. I doubt the umpire favors the Rays to continue the series. It makes sense that the umpire called for the delay, and then, Selig postponed it thereafter. How would you like it if Selig, who probably knows nothing about working a field, came down and said the field was unplayable? If someone, you know, on the field had said something, this might have been averted. However, they were willing to be obedient soldiers and fight through it. But if you want to blame someone, blame the players, coaches, and umpires for not complaining earlier. Because if they couldn't complain earlier, then they shouldn't have stopped the game earlier. And if they couldn't have stopped the game earlier, then you can't blame Selig for not stopping the game earlier due to his "Rays bias".

Sixth, why wouldn't the Rays have scored that inning anyway? I doubt Rollins would have kept Upton from getting that single. With a dry base path, Upton probably has no trouble stealing second. Carlos Peña then hit a solid single into left in which Burrell's not-so-great arm couldn't throw out Upton who had to seriously tip-toe around third base. I think they would have scored anyway. The weather didn't have much to do with that.

Honestly, I think Selig, and everyone else for that matter who cares about the game, wanted the game to end last night. He and all the other officials, including the umpires, probably all thought, "We need to finish the game. Imagine the chaos that would ensue from ending the game now. Let's just try to finish it." Now, I realize I have based none of this in fact or in personal knowledge of the facts, but as far as I'm concerned, no one else was inside anyone's head either. Give him a break. He made a tough decision.

Derrek Lee for Adrian Gonzalez

Guy on crack.

Uh, HWHAT?!?!?

Derrek Lee vs. Adrian Gonzalez

WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD THE PADRES DO THAT?!?!?

I would want Jeff Samardzija, Rich Hill, Felix Pie, Josh Vitters, and Donald Veal to even start thinking about such a deal.

Luckily, Bill Rogers writes for the Chicago Tribune and completely overvalues Lee and what he brings and apparently doesn't realize Gonzalez is much better, younger, cheaper, and left-handed. The Padres would and should ask for the moon for him, and if I were the Braves, I'd give it to them.

Tigers Thinking Trades

I think they'd rather have some bounce-back years from players like this guy.

The Tigers' brass will meet over the next week to determine who they think could be traded and for whom they would be traded. It's been said they have too much payroll and want to decrease it. Unfortunately, they showed a lot of holes last season and will need to fix them. So who do they trade and where would make sense?

Magglio Ordoñez (35 at beginning of next season)
He's the prize of the group that could be traded. He's an excellent offensive player that's somewhat limited defensively, but he could play every day for a lot of teams. His big drawback is his contract, which calls for him to receive $18M next season, but the two later seasons are options worth $15M each (the first has a buyout of $3M and the last has no buyout). Because of the low buyout numbers, teams can decide if they want to keep him or ditch him. My guess is that he'll still play well and get all of those options, but people have become increasingly paranoid of the mid-30's player (I still think you have to look case-by-case, but they'll get lumped together fairly or unfairly). The contract will be a big burden, so if the Tigers want anything in return, they'll need to eat about $7-10M of his contract for next season. Can they do it? I think so because it still saves them $8-10M. As for teams interested, the Braves (young pitching as long as the Tigers can deal with no Hanson, but there are some interesting bullpen options), the Rangers (who have young catching), the A's (who have young pitching), the Rays (who have young pitching even though they like to hold onto it), the Mets (who have some young pitching), and the Dodgers (who have young pitching) could all have interest and match-up with the Tigers. Matt Joyce and Brent Clevlen could take the job left over.

Armando Galarraga
He was a nice story this season, but does anyone really believe he'll do it again? The Tigers might sell high on Galarraga hoping someone (especially in the NL) will take the trade and give some useful players back. Even better for the Tigers, he's under control for five more seasons. I'm guessing he'd garner a lot of interest. His 3.73 ERA looks good, but he doesn't strike out many hitters (6.35 K/9) and his BABIP was ridiculously low at .247. His GB/FB is a respectable 1.10, but he did give up 28 HR. I'm saying he'll seriously regress next season in the AL, but in the NL, he may not regress so far. Still, the Tigers should get rid of him now while they have the advantage. Again, lots of teams would like him and could fit them in their payroll. The problem is that the Tigers don't really want to give up what they really don't have much of, but they could turn him into a good young pitching prospect and a good young catcher.

Nate Robertson
He had a terrible season to say the least, but FanGraphs seems to think he could have a nice bounce-back season next year. He's owed $7M and $10M over the next two seasons, so the Tigers might have to eat some of that but not much. However, they probably won't get much back for him either way. As for whether or not he'll bounce back, his K/9 was a bad 5.76, his BB/9 was 3.31, but his BABIP was a ridiculously high .343, his LOB% was a low 64.3%, and has a solid GB/FB of 1.21. Could he bounce-back? Sure, but I wouldn't give up much for him, and I'd have to be an NL team. Also, he'll be 31 next season, so he might only be useful for a couple more seasons, and luckily, that's all that's on his contract.

Gary Sheffield
The perenially-disgruntled outfielder can be had for $14M next season. Expecting his 2000 Dodger output might be a bit high, and at age 40, I wouldn't expect a hug bounce-back from his terrible 2008 season. His body is really starting to drag, and he's not a good outfielder anymore. An AL team might take a flier on him to DH, but Sheffield would rather play the field as well as hit. He's just not a really good idea to bring aboard, but I could see the Rays, the A's, and the Rangers in on the action at some point. He had a really, really low .237 BABIP last season and should do better, but I don't know that I could count on 130 games from him.

I honestly don't know who else they would trade from their team to make payroll more flexible or that would bring in a lot of players in return. They could re-sign Renteria and trade him, but they might want to spend the $8M ($11M contract - the $3M buyout) on reconstructing the bullpen and no one would really want him. Bonderman and Verlander are probably off-limits (especially Bonderman after his injury). Guillen, Cabrera, and Granderson are probably too crucial to the team to give up, and I think the Tigers want to keep Inge, although he wasn't very good last season, and probably couldn't get rid of him. They have some good bullpen arms, but they desperately need to keep them. It might be a difficult off-season for the Tigers.

Another Great Moment in Not Believing Everything You Read

Yes, that is a Mississippi Braves hat, and yes, that is Smoltz throwing side-arm. And we thought he could come back last season.

John Smoltz was surprised to learn that he wanted to pitch for another team. His agent told a New York Daily News reporter that he would try to come back mid-season and give someone, but not necessarily the Braves, a spark. Smoltz received a text message about it and sent one back saying he did not know anything about that.

This just goes to show you that you can't believe everything you read. It's also interesting how this came from a newspaper and not a blog. Anyway, with all the rumors and reports that come out about players and their "desires", you really can't believe them. In fact, don't believe anything until it's finalized, and then, wait a few days for a contradicting report. Newspapers, news stations, and the internet are supposed to report the truth, but it appears the day has come (and probably came a long time ago) that "news" agencies are more about finding a good story than corroborating it to see if it's true. I know it's true that his agent said that, but if I really want to know something, I'd rather here it from Smoltz himself. It's like speculating on CC and where he'll go. We can all come up with different scenarios 'til the cows come home, but it doesn't really make much of difference.

Uh-Oh (Rays Edition)

I think he broke out of his slump.

With one more win tonight, the Phillies put the Rays' dream season closer to a bitter end. It's not that this season will be a disappointment for the Rays, but you know they will be disappointed. In a world where the AL dominates, even the Rays shouldn't lose the World Series to an NL team. That would be disgraceful. Actually, it's just a part of baseball, especially seven-game series. Sometimes, the magic just runs out. And with Hamels pitching tomorrow night, the Phillies have the perfect opportunity to win the series in front of the home crowd, something that no one really thought would happen and this quickly. ESPN analysts did have a few people say the Phillies would win, but they all had 6 or 7 games down. The Rays had a few more "strong" feelings as Caple and Neyer had them winning in 4 and 5, respectively. It's not that they were off-base, no one can really predict these things, but no one really expected the Phillies to win in 5. But that's how we sit. We see Hamels coming out to try to win Game 5 and send Philadelphia into euPhoria.

Just a warning though, if Hamels doesn't win tomorrow night, it spells doom for Philly. They got away with a Moyer win the first time, but I wouldn't expect it again. Then again, in a season of improbabilities (doesn't it seem we always say that?), anything can happen (nicely placed cliché). In all seriousness, if Hamels doesn't put this away tomorrow night, I bet the Rays take the last two at home.

Oh, and apparently 70% of you thought the Phillies would win, but how many legitmately thought they would win in 5?

By the way, where have Longoria and Peña gone?

Instant Replay ... the Last Time, I Swear ... Maybe ... I Can't Guarantee Anything

I didn't like the call either Jaime, but I wouldn't fight for replay to have changed it.

So after watching what has been a relatively poorly officiated World Series, how many people want instant replay used in more situations than just home runs? Or has no one watched enough to care? Did anyone care that Moyer didn't get an out when he made such a great play? It did result in a run, actually two if you want to get technical. Did anyone care that Longoria's tag on Rollins didn't result in an out? It did result in a run. I'm just saying. If you want instant replay for home runs because you want the right call made, maybe we should consider doing it for all plays. Now, had Boston, either of the New York teams, or any of the LA teams had this happen to them, would we care? Maybe we wouldn't. But what makes home run calls so much more special than these plays? They resulted in runs scoring that shouldn't have. They could have been prevented. They resulted because umpires were in a bad position to see the call. Cameras would fix that, wouldn't they? Or, are we done fretting about dumb things because we actually have something else to worry about that is more important, like the economy?

Can We Please Stop Talking About Ratings?

How true. Has anyone else noticed that NFL Live is on year round, but Baseball Tonight is already off the air?

Last night's game, predictably, had the worst ratings ever for a World Series game. Can we please stop talking about ratings? They don't measure success. They still had a full house, I presume, for the game. It was still loud with fans up and yelling, right? I'm guessing it is still making a huge profit for Major League Baseball. So why are we worrying about ratings?

You want to know why the World Series doesn't get that big of ratings? First, it is no longer the favorite sport in America. Football has taken that spot. Second, the World Series is possibly seven games long. People think, "Well, if I miss this one, there could still be six more." They don't feel like they have to watch each one. The Super Bowl and NCAA Championships for football and basketball are one game long. That one really does matter. It's for the whole enchilada. The World Series isn't. Game 2 may have zero bearing on the entire series if the Phillies win it. Otherwise, Games 1 and 3 won't matter. If you make the World Series one game (maybe it should be -- another discussion), I bet lots of people will watch it. It would matter. Why do more people watch Games 6 and 7 of these series? Because they might matter. Because it could be the end of the series. Because it might actually tell you who won. If it's Game 4 or 5, no one cares even if it leads to the end of the series because if it is the end of the series, the end was pretty foregone by that point wasn't it? Third, I wonder if TiVo has anything to do with it. Instead of waiting until 2 o'clock in the morning to see the end of the game, I can just TiVo it and watch it in the morning without looking at the paper or internet. I doubt it makes much of a difference, but it might. Regardless, stop worrying about the ratings because it really doesn't matter. When no one shows up in the stands or the fans stop cheering, then I'll worry.

It's Not Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Update: Apparently, Moyer pitched the game while severely ill. It's a good thing he doesn't succeed by throwing hard.

What an inning. What an inning.

After an hour and a half of a rain delay, Game 3 finally got started around 10, but it didn't end until about 1:45. The game was complete insanity in the later innings, and especially the ninth. Moyer pitched well. Garza pitched fairly well until he gave up those back-to-back home runs. Ruiz hit a home run and then made a crucial error. Crawford laid down a bunt, Moyer ran, dove, and flipped the ball for the out, and Crawford was called safe. Navarro followed with a big double, but he later made a crucial error. All in all, a fantastic game that no one watched. I'd feel bad for saying that because it did start really late, but I doubt there would have been many anyway.

As for the series, the Phillies find themselves in a great spot. Tonight's matchup between Sonnanstine and Blanton doesn't particularly give either pitcher the edge. If Blanton wins, Hamels will have the chance to knock out the Rays in five. If Sonnanstine wins, there's still a good chance the Phillies go up 3-2 after Hamels' start. Then again, Garza was supposed to win last night, too. I guess that's why you should watch.

Twins Trying to Extend Gardenhire

I love this man. Angel Hernandez that is.

The Twins are looking to extend Ron Gardenhire. I think Gardenhire is easily the most underappreciated manager in the MLB. Mike Scioscia used to be that way, but I think he has started to get more credit. Joe Maddon has put himself into the limelight this season, especially the postseason by being the weird but successful guy, but people will forget about him by the start of next season. With Gardenhire, everyone always talks about how the Twins won't be that good, but they always are. They always are. They never seem to be a terrible team, and I think Gardenhire has to be a key reason why that is.

Top 5 Under-appreciated Managers
1) Ron Gardenhire
2) Eric Wedge
3) Charlie Manuel
4) Joe Maddon
5) Bob Melvin

I would have out Ned Yost on here, but I guess that isn't really possible considering he isn't a manager anymore. I still don't think anything was really his fault this season. Fredi Gonzalez was another candidate for the list, but I need a little more to work with for him. Jerry Manuel is almost in the same boat as I'd like to see a bit more about him.

Anyway, before I went off on that tangent, I wanted to ask a question. Why is that players get such big contracts and managers don't? Why is it that players opt for free-agency but managers sign extensions all the time? Why is it that managers get fired whereas players still get their salaries even if they are released? I guess the main reason would be the union for players. I don't even know if the coaches have a union. Still, why are coaches so quick to sign extensions? I guess there job security is a bit worse than a player's, but would Pinella or LaRussa really need to worry about their job security? I think if Gardenhire let his contract run out, teams would line up for him. Then again, only bad teams need new managers, and those aren't the places you really want to go to. But, would teams be more careful about managerial contracts if they knew Gardenhire would be on the market? The situation of a manager is a weird one. When you win, it's like you aren't even there, but when you lose, you're usually the scapegoat.

Holliday and Atkins on the Market

It's about to be a $23M a year man. He's not that good, but his agent is Boras.

I think the Braves should trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, and Neftali Feliz for one-year of a Scott Boras client. Oh wait ... I'm still bitter. If we were going to give all that up, we should have gotten Adrian Gonzalez.

Yankees in New Jersey?

Granted, this might be one of the stadiums that actually does pay for itself after 10-20 years.

It could have happened. Yankees president Randy Levine stated that if the Yankees hadn't gotten the tax-free bonds to build the stadium, they would have built the stadium in New Jersey. Of course, the Meadowlands guy denies knowing anything about it, but I'm thinking there might be something illegal about trying to attract the Yankees away from New York. It's at least tacky and would make some enemies. I don't really know much about the whole tax-free bond thing, but it seems a bit weird that the Yankees or any team would hold a city hostage like that. Remember, it's New York and the Bronx that made and make the Yankees, not the other way around. It's not like the Yankees would become the Bismarck Yankees just for a good deal. The franchise would fail. The Yankees had to stay in New York or at least near (like New Jersey) to keep up their high-spending ways. Whatever. It's just another example of teams getting their way, even if they have the money.

Marlins' Trade Bait

Does anyone else watch Chuck?

The Marlins don't appear to be re-inventing the wheel again, but they're willing to move a spoke or two. Scott Olsen, Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, and Jeremy Hermida are probably the ones on the block, but it seems as though Uggla will be staying. Should your team be interested in any of the available guys?

Scott Olsen
He's a risk. He hasn't had an ERA under 4, and while pitched in 201.2 innings, his strikeouts continued to decline. In 2006, he had 180.2 IP and 166 K, but in 2007, he had 176.2 IP and only 133 K. He had 113 K this season. His GB/FB rate has gone from 1.21 to 0.88, and away from pitcher-friendly Marlin Stadium, his ERA will get worse. His BABIP was also a mysteriously low .266 after a mysteriously and ridiculously high .350 last season. So, his 4.20 ERA this season is probably a little low for what he'd actually do. His BB/9 rate did go down significantly from 4.33 to 3.08, though I don't know how that happens. I don't know if I'd do it unless I just needed a fifth starter.

Kevin Gregg
He's a bit of a mystery. His ERA went down, but he blew more saves (was 32/36 in 2007 to 29/38 this season). His GB/FB went from 0.53 to 1.26, and his BABIP went from .272 to .261. His HR/FB went down from 5.9 to 4.4, and he still blew more saves. The only things that make this make sense are that his K/9 went from 9.32 to 7.60 and his BB/9 went from 4.29 to 4.85. His LOB% dropped from 75% to 70% as well. So, do you get him? Well, if I was a team in need of a closer, I might take a shot on him instead of paying Fuentes or Rodriguez a lot of money.

Mike Jacobs
He doesn't walk, he doesn't hit for average, and he strikes out a lot, but he did hit 32 HR. His .247 BA seems low, but so does his .264 BABIP. He's not a .300 guy, but he's not a .240 guy either. He's not a particularly good first baseman, but if he can hit 30 HR, no one really cares all that much. He'd be worth it if you needed a first baseman (Giants?).

Jeremy Hermida
His SLG plummeted almost 100 point to .406, and his BABIP actually was a high .311. He walks a bit more than Jacobs, but he also strikes out more. He also doesn't hit as many HR. Miami is killer to lefty hitters, but he really isn't a great hitter. The plus is that he's only 24. There's still a little potential in there, but I think Jacobs is probably the better bet. If you need a corner outfielder and don't have to give up much, there are probably worse options.

Remember, all these guys are arbitration-eligible, so they aren't expensive. Jacobs and Gregg are probably the only ones I'd really think about trading for, but Hermida wouldn't be terrible option. Olsen is probably a bad idea, especially if you have a small park.

Re-Alignment

I just made up my schedule for next semester, and I'm ticked that I have a Friday class.

I saw this post the other day about re-alignment, and while it wasn't a very good idea from my standpoint, it was at least creative. I'm not sure baseball needs to be re-aligned, but I hate the unbalanced schedule. There's nothing worse than watching nine Nationals-Braves game (they were especially painful this season) in one month. I'd rather see more teams come in. I am a fan of interleague play, even though I know most seem to disagree although the attendance numbers don't show it. Like it or not, it at least brings new teams to town that you don't get to see very often. Anyway, here are some other suggestions for schedule-making.

1) Play all teams an equal number of times. 162/29=5.58. 29x5=145. 162-145=17 extra games. So, you play all teams at least 5 times, and then split up the remaining 17. One idea would be to play those against your divisional foes. Another would be to spread them out to the other teams in your respective league (I prefer the divisional game theory). You play AL rules in AL parks, and NL rules in the NL. This might even out some of the differences between the two leagues as DH's become less important for the AL and more important for the NL, making them equally important for each league. Each team needs a DH-type guy, so the talent should even itself out. The problem is that the DH becomes more common for the NL, and a lot of people don't like the DH (we could just get rid of the DH, but what would happen to Big Papi? or make the DH for everyone, but then why have opposite leagues?). Another one is that teams play more games on opposite coasts. However, you get to play more teams, and the schedules are roughly even.

2) Play teams in your league an even number of times. 162/15=10.8. 15x10=150. 162-150=12 games left for NL teams. 162/13=12.46. 12x13=156. 6 games left for AL teams. The remaining games are spread out to divisional foes. This makes the Anti-Interleague party happy. This again evens out the difficulty of the schedules for the leagues, but not between them like theory 1 does. Again, this means more cross-country trips for teams (oh well), but it also means more variety.

3) Play all NL teams equally and AL teams as well. Okay, this gets interesting. We need 42 games for all the AL teams (14x3), which leaves 120. Divide 120 by 15, and you get 8 exactly for each NL team. In the AL, we need 48 games (16x3), which leaves 114 games. Divide 114 by 13, and you get 8.8 games per team. 8x13 gets us to 104 which means 10 opponents get an extra game in the series, and it leaves us with a negligible 3 game difference in strength of schedule. This way, the AL teams still come, and strength of schedule stays the same across the board. Now, after a season, we really know who the best team is in each league.

I'm not sure if these are really viable, but I just don't like the unbalanced schedule at all. I tried to think of other ones that weren't completely equal, but I'm not sure they actually work. Logistical overload.

Selig Trying to Shorten Playoffs

Or, let's expand the playoffs to like 16 teams.

Selig wants to shorten the postseason next year so that the World Series won't end on November 5th. I like that he's thinking about it, but I'm not sure what two or three days is really going to do. Okay, so now it ends on November 2nd. What's the difference? The playoffs will take awhile because it is three rounds with 19 possible games for each team. If you really want to shorten the postseason, then:

1) Eliminate off-days all together. You play every day during the regular season, so why do you need a day off every two days now. Take a day off in between series, but eliminate the others. Traveling across the country might be a logistical problem to this solution, but both teams have to deal with it. It might be another reason to move the games up to 6 or 7 so everyone can see them.

2) Make the schedule more flexible. If all the teams are done with their series, then move up the next round. This might cause problems for teams and selling tickets, but I seriously doubt that would be affected much. It also makes it more difficult for the TV stations showing the games, but again, I think we are capable of such difficult resolutions. The main problem would be that it might not actually shorten the postseason. If one team goes 7 games, you can't move anything up, and you can't start one league ahead of another.

3) Double-headers! Okay, so there's a lot of problems with that, but it would be fun.

Site Changes

You're not going crazy. The site is changing a little. I have been told it might be a little difficult to read, so I'm trying to make it more reader-friendly. Please let know how the changes work. What works for me may not work for anyone else, so I need your input. Therefore, you might see a few new variations to the site for the next few days.

The Rick Ankiel Effect

To think the Braves almost traded Hudson for him.

After Rick Ankiel's stunning pitcher-turned-outfielder number, Adam Loewen is attempting the same thing. That's not new news, but this is. He was put on waivers and is now a free-agent (he cleared waivers). He's also getting a lot of attention evidently from teams. Let's call this the "Rick Ankiel Effect". Ankiel made the switch and is now making a serious difference for the Cardinals. Teams hope that an athletic Loewen can make a similar switch. The thing is that the situations are almost completely different. Loewen hasn't hit for years. Ankiel had and had done well as a pitcher as a rookie. They knew he could hit. Are you really sure about the same for Loewen. Also, Loewen will be 25 next season, and you can't expect him to hit AAA pitching, can you? It seems he'll have to start back at A ball and work his way up. Granted, he'll be like 27 or 28 by the time he gets back, which puts him around his "prime" when he makes it. I still don't know if I'd really expect him to make so much of a change, especially with his injury history.

Braves Not as Hot on Peavy as Thought

I guess we'll see. I'm a little disappointed, but that doesn't make this a bad decision.

Wren came out and said the Braves won't trade their top prospects, even for Peavy. This is the most definitive thing we have seen in the past few weeks. I don't know whether to be relieved or saddened. Peavy is the chance to seriously upgrade our rotation, but I also really like our prospects, especially Hanson. I still think a trade built around Schafer/Hanson or Hanson/Johnson wouldn't be bad, but it seems as though Wren is sticking to his guns. On the other hand, this might be more posturing. The Padres probably haven't gotten too many great deals for Peavy considering his no-trade clause and apparent unwillingness to go to the AL. The Padres don't have to trade him, but you might imagine they might be antsy to considering their situation. Wren could just be saying, "Take Anderson, Redmond, and Prado or nothing." People will blame Wren, but for once, it seems a Braves front office man is looking to the future. Can't say I blame him. He's restocking, and there is a lot of talent in A ball right now. He keeps these guys for a run in a couple years while hoping he can win some free-agent contests. I guess we'll see.

Making it more difficult for Wren, Schafer and Hanson are going off in Winter Ball.

Cain vs. Peavy

I still don't think he's as good as they say he is.

I was reading Jim Callis' chat today on ESPN, and an interesting question came up about Peavy vs. Cain. If you were to give up a lot of prospects, which would you choose to get.

Jake Peavy

He is the most talked about player right now. This past season Peavy only threw 173.2 IP due to a sore elbow at the beginning of the season, but he responded afterward and finished by throwing 7+ in 9 of his last 14 appearances (3 of those starts were 6 IP and the other 2 were 5 IP). His final stats were 10-11, 2.85 ERA, 173.2 IP, 166 K, and a WHIP of 1.18. That's pretty good. In his 6 full MLB seasons, he has never started less than 27 starts, so he's durable. Some warning signs were that his K/9 dropped from 9.67 to 8.60, his BB/9 rose from 2.74 to 3.06, and his GB/FB went from 1.13 to 1.10. To tell you the truth, none of those scare me. Even if Peavy stayed at a 8.60 K/9, that's still pretty good. After a calm off-season, he should be back to normal come March. As for Petco and its effect, it will have an effect, but in all likelihood, his ERA won't rise .4 points (Even if it did, who wouldn't want a 3.20 ERA pitcher?). He's a legit ace.

Matt Cain

There were brief rumors early in the playoffs about a Fielder for Cain swap, but those seem to have been tabled for now. Cain took a step up in innings pitched by pitching 217.2 innings, which is a healthy workload and what you want from your ace. His season numbers were 8-14, 3.76 ERA, 217.2 IP, 186 K, and a WHIP of 1.36. Looking strictly there, Cain looks worse than Peavy. His K/9 was 7.69 (up from 7.34), BB/9 was 3.76 (up from 3.56), and his GB/FB was .76 (down from 0.89). Again, Peavy, even in an "off" year, was better than Cain. The big advantage is age and salary for Cain. He's three years younger and is just entering arbitration. On the flip side, Peavy is signed for at least four years at $8M, $15M, $16M, and $17M. In contrast, Cain is arbitration-eligible and will probably make around $4-5M next season (Wang made $4M last season) and approach $10M by his third year. Thus, he'll be less expensive. As for prospects, I imagine the cost will make Cain and Peavy about equal even though Peavy is better and signed for longer. I've got to say, if you have the money, I'd spend it on Peavy. Cain's groundball rate scares me, and if he gets away from his West Coast haven, he might give up more HR and become not-so-good. As of now, I would only say Cain is a number 2, albeit a great no. 2, but he's not an ace. Peavy is a legitimate ace.

LiveBlog: Rays vs. Phillies

No Manny and no Red Sox, but there's still plenty of good baseball.

Are you excited? I am!

Tonight pits two talented young lefties in Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir. I think Kazmir gets a slight edge because the Phillies' best two hitters are left-handed (Utley and Howard), but Hamels is pitching better. Everyone knows about Hamels' change-up, but watch the second and third at-bats to see if he needs to throw some curves. His curve is really good, but his change-up is so ridiculously awesome that he rarely needs it. Can the Rays stay back?

As for Kazmir, he'll need to establish the strike zone with all his pitches. His fastball has a lot of sink, but he's missed the zone so far in the playoffs. If he can locate the fastball, especially against Utley and Howard, he can use his good change-up and excellent slider to finish hitters. The Phillies need to be patient and not let Kazmir get into a rhythm.

I'm so glad McCain and Obama get to give that excellent pre-game starter. Does anyone else think McCain is getting more air time? FOX wouldn't be biased would it?

As for the Steal a Base - Steal a Taco thing, I wouldn't steal a Taco Bell taco if they gave it to me.

T1 (PHI 2 - TB 0) --> Phillies score 2
Quick fly-out to open the game for Rollins. They need to make Kazmir work harder. That's better as Jayson Werth walks on six pitches. Utley follows with a bomb after working the count a bit. Kazmir got away with one but not that one. Howard follows up by hitting a titanic shot to ... second, and Burrell quickly strikes out. Good start for the Phillies. Where's the rust?

B1 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
I thought Ben Zobrist said his name was "Bends Over It". Need to get my hearing checked. Oh geez, Iwamura gets on as Hamels doesn't field his position by getting to the bag to take Howard's throw. Terrible way to start, and you just can't give up easy outs. Doesn't matter as Upton hits into 4-6-3 double play. At least, they did that the textbook way. Peña then grounds out, and Hamels is out of there with 11 pitches. Not the way to start if you're the Rays.

T2 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Victorino uses his speed on the infield single up the middle. Did the turf make a difference there? Feliz walks. The Phillies need to keep working the count. Get Kazmir out and get to the bullpen to make things worse for the future starters. Victorino almost got caught off second. Actually, I think they got him as Bartlett's foot blocked his hand. There's the first out as Coste flies out to right. Another walk as Ruiz takes first. Kazmir needs to get it back on track, but the Phillies are playing this perfectly so far. Terrible decision, great play as Upton catches Rollins' shallow fly ball and throws out Victorino trying to tag. I have to question that play. Why run? Kazmir was really against the wall, and that just got him out of the jam.

B2 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Longoria down swinging in three pitches. This looks like another phun night for Hamels victims. Easy fly ball to center from Crawford. Anyone else think he has a weird swing? Hamels then strikes out Aybar. 25 pitches so far. At least the Rays made it a whole 3 pitches more difficult for Hamels. At this pace, he'll easily get through 8.

T3 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Oops swing gets Werth a double. Why did Victorino run again? Utley makes "productive out" by grounding out to second. I still say that it's better than striking out, but you shouldn't "try" to get out. Howard strikes out on a check-swing. Kazmir looks better now. Will it continue? Yep, he strikes out Burrell to end the inning.

B3 (PHI 2 - TB 0)
Phillies are leaving a lot on base. Can the Rays take advantage? Nope, Navarro pops out, and they continue to make it easy on Hamels. First hit by none other than Ben Zobrist. Hamels walks Bartlett, and for whatever reason, the bottom of the order gets to Hamels. Let's see how the top does. Iwamura follows with a hit, and now it's bases loaded for Upton. Uh-oh ... Upton ropes it, but Feliz, known for his glove, spears it and turns two. Hamels gets out of the jam.

T4 (PHI 3 - TB 0) --> Phillies score 1
Anyone else psyched for Quantum of Solace? Bloop single for Victorino, but Upton misses it and has Zobrist to back him up. That was weird. Feliz flips it into center-field. Announcer says it was good hitting, but he got lucky. He was way out in front. Now, can they finally make Kaz pay? Runners go, but Coste grounds out to first. Men on second and third with one out. Works like the sacrifice that Coste "tried" to get down. Ruiz does the "small ball thing" by grounding out to short to get the runner home. I'm surprised not to hear praise for Ruiz for moving the runners. Rollins strikes out on three pitches. Three run lead and Hamels pitching. Is it over?

B4 (PHI 3 - TB 1) --> Rays score 1
Hamels gets to the base on the grounder, but it was only Peña running. Don't give him too much credit. Groundball to third gets Longoria. Home Run Crawford! Well, that happened awful quick. Curve is the most dangerous pitch to throw to other lefty? I would think it would be that change considering it comes back towards the hitter. Oh well. Easy fly to center, and Hamels only has 53 pitches so far. Still, he gave up three baserunners last inning and a homer this inning. Is he losing his grip? Nah.

T5 (PHI 3 - TB 1)
Werth rips one into center, but it's caught. I guess it's better to dunk it, huh? Utley only pops it to second ... wait short ... wait second. Stupid shift. Howard walks. Little nubber gets down the line, and Peña can't hold on. Tough play, but one that should be made. Burrell on first, Howard on second. Easy grounder from Victorino. Kazmir is up to 94 pitches. One more inning? You would think with the bottom of the order coming up.

B5 (PHI 3 - TB 2) --> Rays score 1
Navarro strikes out. Zobrist grounds out. Oh, Bartlett walks and makes Hamels work again. Two walks for him. Good boy. Iwamura doubles home Bartlett. Rays are coming back. I guess I missed Bartlett's steal when I went to the bathroom. I wondered why he cake walked it in from second. Wow, I just looked at the poll, and the Phillies have 100% of the votes. Really? Who says Howard can't play defense? He stuck his glove into the stands and came away with the ball for out three. Hamels is not quite as sharp as he has been, but if he can stick it out another inning or two without more than one more run, they should be fine.

T6 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Feliz dunks another one for a hit. Coste pops out. Ruiz flies out to left. Rollins out to center. Kazmir still in.

B6 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Error by Howard. So I was wrong about his defense, but that was a sarcastic comment. Peña is then picked off, but Hamels might have balked. Longoria strikes out. Crawford grounds out. Hamels is back. Probably get one more from him.

T7 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
JP Howell in. Decent outing by Kazmir. At least he got through six. Werth strikes out in an ugly at-bat. Utley rips one up the middle for a hit. So, he gets the righty out but not the lefty. Hmm. Utley takes second. Wild pitch gets Utley to third. Howard strikes out. What a surprise. It has to be noisy as hell in that stadium. Whoa, that was close, but Burrell walks. Maddon comes out and will bring in Balfour to face Victorino. Balfour just blows it past Victorino. Good call Mr. Maddon.

B7 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Philly just keeps leaving people on base. That might come back to bite them. Aybar pops out to Bartlett for out one. Navarro goes down swinging. If the Rays don't score now, they get Madson/Romero and then Lidge. Heck, he might come back for eight. Ground ball back to him for out three. 101 pitches. Do you bring him back out? With the top coming up, I let my bullpen take 'em out.

T8 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Feliz flies out to right. Coste taps it back to the mound when Balfour shatters his bat. I get the feeling he does that a lot. Ruiz lines to right, but Zobrist makes a nice play. Balfour comes up big.

B8 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
9-1-2 up for the Rays. They need to be thinking about doing something here. Lidge hasn't blown one all year, but then again, Peña, Longoria, and, as shown tonight, Crawford can each tie the game in a swing in the ninth. It would just be better to do it now. Madson in. Bartlett out as he pops it into foul territory to Howard. Iwamura fooled on the 3-2 slider and flies out to right. Great slider gets Upton after a good at-bat. Probably should have been over sooner but oh well. Let's get Peña or Longoria to hit a big home run and watch Lidge just sit in the fetal position. "It's not happening. It's not happening ..."

T9 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
After a rough middle of the game, the pitchers have really taken over, but 1-2-3 for Philly and 3-4-5 for Tampa. Let's watch. Balfour's still out there. Wow. Rollins strikes out. He's not had a good day (0-5, 2K). Werth doubles down the right field line, and Balfour subsequently intentionally walks Utley. Miller Time!! Oh, not that. Oh well. Howard strikes out looking. Wheeler now in. Is anyone else less dependable than Howard? Double steal puts them on second and third for Bruntlett. Easy pop out to Iwamura to end the inning. Lidge time. Who's gonna be clutch? This has been a good one so far.

B9 (PHI 3 - TB 2)
Peña strikes out on a check-swing strike (he went) and three sliders. Nasty. Another strikeout. That slider is just gross. And a rather uncoordinated catch in foul territory ends it. Game 1 to the Phillies.

Great Game 1. This one pretty much went as expected. I think most thought Hamels would win. The Phillies needed that one, and they got it.

Ken Rosenthal is really short.

Jack Zduriencik is New Mariners GM

There he is.

Congratulations to Jack Zduriencik on getting the job. It's probably something he's wanted for an awfully long time. He's known for his player development skills as he bolstered the Milwaukee system into a powerhouse, but it will take around 5-6 years to see any dramatic improvement created from that department. I only wonder whether or not he will be given that much time. At this point, he has little to no farm system to deal with, and his team isn't very good. The Mariners have resources, so he can spend. However, that's not always a good idea. We really have no idea about his ability to make good trades, but that's always a sketchy measuring stick for a GM. So much luck goes into making a trade work. Sometimes guys underperform, sometimes they get hurt, and sometimes they play better than you expect. No one really knows how it will end up. Regardless, Mr. Zduriencik has quite a challenge ahead of him. His main task will be to rebuild the farm system, but again, that may take 5-6 years. In the mean time, he'll have to figure out how to build next season's team, whether or not to re-sign Felix Hernandez, and how to handle veterans such as Ichiro. What would I do?

First, I trade the veterans with value. Ichiro's gone, and so is Beltre, Putz, Lopez, Betancourt, and Washburn. I would eat some of the contracts considering Seattle does have money they can spend, and this would ultimately save money anyway. Eating money would bring back better players, which is really what Seattle needs more than the money. Ichiro, Beltre, and Putz could bring back at least two good prospects each. Lopez, Betancourt, and Washburn may only bring back one good prospect, but at least with Washburn, you would get rid of the contract. As for Bautista and Silva, you're kinda stuck with 'em. Put Silva in the fifth spot and Bautista back in the bullpen. I would then try to get rid of Johjima and get back whatever I could for him. At least the contract would be gone. With the remaining money, I spend on Teixeira and Furcal as impact guys who will still be good in two or three years when I'm ready to contend. I add Bradley to be the DH and give him 2 or 3 years. Now, the fans still have something to go see even if they aren't Ichiro, but it still lets them know you're not just completely throwing everything in the scrap heap. In the trades, get MLB-ready or tested guys. If that means fewer players, then that's fine, but the goal is still to put a good team out there. Clement is the catcher, Tex is at first, Furcal is at second, and Tuiasopo is at third. The rest can be had through trades. As for the rotation, it depends on what you can get back. I would even consider trading Hernandez, but I need the best three prospects from someone to consider it. I would put Morrow back at the closer spot, but I would use him for more than one inning. One inning would be the norm, but if there's a man on second and one out in the eighth, I'd encourage my manager to bring him in. The goal is to get 100 good innings from him out of the bullpen.

This would be a major overhaul, but that's really what the Mariners need.

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This is what it's all about.

Rays (97-65) vs. Phillies (92-70)

Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored

What a wild ride to get here! It's been a fun playoffs although the NL moved along quickly. But, if you didn't like the Red Sox/Rays series, you just don't like good baseball. As for this series, the Rays come in as the favorites. They won five more games. They did it in the Big Boy League. They did it in baseball's best division. But can they win another best-of-seven series?

Why the Phillies win:
Tampa's power surge is probably a mirage. I don't care how much power you think BJ Upton has, there is no reason he should hit 7 HR in 11 games. The Rays have been hot to get here, but it might just stop here. On the flip side, the Phillies need to continue hitting. Second, Moyer and Blanton have to be solid in their starts. Myers and Hamels can hold their own, but they won't win all 4 of their starts. Three maybe, but not four. Then, their bullpen has to be as light's out as it has been all season. That is their advantage, and they must have it work that way.

Why the Rays win:
The power surge continues. If they don't continue to blast the crap out of it, they won't win. I don't care how well they run the bases/play defense/pitch. The Phillies aren't terrible in any of those categories either, so the Rays must bomb the ball to keep up. Next, Kazmir needs to be Game 5 Kazmir, twice. The Rays have the advantage in the 3 and 4 spots in their rotation and should win at least two of the three possible there. If Kazmir can win at least one battle with Hamels, things become a lot easier. Finally, the bullpen must clamp down. Don't expect the Phillies' bullpen to have a letdown, but we've seen the cracks in the Rays' bullpen. Put some caulk in it.

Offense: Phillies
Defense: Rays
Game 1: Hamels vs. Kazmir --> Rays
Game 2: Shields vs. Myers --> Even
Game 3: Garza vs. Moyer --> Rays
Game 4: Sonnanstine vs. Blanton --> Even
Game 5: Hamels vs. Kazmir
Game 6: Shields vs. Myers
Game 7: Garza vs. Moyer
Bullpen: Phillies
Closers: Lidge vs. Price/Wheeler/Balfour --> Phillies

The starting pitching matchups favor the Rays, but the Phillies hold a distinct advantage in the bullpen. The one thing that might make this series more interesting is a thing I think the Phillies have to do: start Hamels three times. If he does, the Phillies win the series. If he doesn't, it's a toss-up. At this point in the year, you have to hop on your hoss and ride him. This is the Phillies' chance. Otherwise, the Rays have the slight advantage in the series because they're rotation is better and deeper than the Phillies', and their bullpen isn't terrible. Still, the Phillies take it in 6.

By the way, I should be LiveBlogging Game 1 tonight. See you at 8.

I Like It When People Look at One Year of a Deal

Did anyone else think BJ Upton should have won the ALCS MVP?

Joe Christensen is already looking at the Matt Garza-Delmon Young deal as a bust. Is it really? I realize the Rays are now in the World Series and that Garza and Jason Bartlett have been instrumental in their getting there, but how does Christensen know what will happen next? What happens if Young turns into the young power-hitter people expect and Garza gets hurt? There are still about four years left to decide how this deal will really shake-out. It's just like the Santana trade and really all the other trades ever made. People look at the immediate impacts and make judgments as if they will occur every time, or maybe, they just don't even look at the future. Please stop looking at deals in such a narrow view. Please?

School Sucks, I'm Sorry

That actually sounds pretty good right now.

This has been my first real test when it comes to blogging. I started in the middle of May, and wrote throughout the summer. The beginning of school went well, but lately, I've hit the usual midterm rush of stuff to do. Right now, I have a 10-12 page paper due Thursday, so I hope to have it done Wednesday night. As for Tuesday, I wouldn't expect much. I might get on and write a few things around 5 or so and maybe some later. Wednesday, I hope to get back to some writing on here, and Thursday should be back to normalcy around here. I just felt like I should let people know. I'd rather be on here writing about stuff than researching and writing history papers, but such is life. Luckily, there really isn't much going on right now. The World Series is coming up, and I hope to LiveBlog the first game (I'm counting on it). The Peavy situation has my attention, but I'm not sure when that will work itself out. After that, there really isn't too much going on. Again, I hope to get back to writing over the next few days, but unfortunately, school has me by the balls on this one. If I didn't need that diploma and GPA so much, I'd just quit, but that's not going to happen. If I did quit, I still wouldn't be able to write because my mother would kill me.

Martin on Block?

I have to admit that I'm a little perplexed on this one.

A surprising bit of news, Russell Martin may be on the trading block this offseason. He hit .280 with a .385 OBP, but his SLG dipped from .469 to .396. Essentially, he hit less HR, but he walked more than struck out (90 to 83) and stole 18 bases. Not bad for a catcher. I'm not sure his "decline" is a sign of things to come, but I expect he'll bounce back. After winning the Gold Glove last season and throwing out 50% of base stealers, he improved his errors (14 to 11) but only caught about 30% of base stealers. I don't know how much stock I would put in that either as Jason Kendall made dramatic improvements this season in that category. He'll only be 26 next season and in his first year of arbitration, so there would be plenty of teams lined up for him. John Baker would be a potential replacement, but he'll be 28 next season. The Dodgers really don't have a replacement, and there isn't much on the free-agent market. Overall, I'm not sure why the Dodgers would consider trading him. He might bring something back, but that leaves a hole at catcher without any good replacement options. I guess a catcher could come back in the trade, but I'm not sure someone would give up a young catcher for another one, at least one the Dodgers would want. Maybe the motivation would be pitching, but the Dodgers have some good guys coming up. Maybe they want some power-hitting prospects? Would Lars Anderson for Russell Martin work? What would you do with Loney? Martin to LAA for Brandon Wood?

Joba Testing Radar Gun

Oddly enough, they're everyone else's rules as well.

Too bad this time it was the police man's.

Here We Go ...

Did he really hit a home run, or are you just joshing me?

Any better? No, okay. I still need to think on the title.

As for baseball, the Red Sox continue to fight back and have forced a Game 7. I don't really think either has the emotional advantage. People say the Red Sox don't have any pressure because they've had to comeback, and it's just great they forced a Game 7. But, that's a load of crap. They want to win. It would be considered a failure if they didn't win the World Series. As for the Rays, it was an accomplishment for them to get here, but just like the Red Sox, they just want to win. They didn't come all this way to lose in the ALCS. That's not what competition is about. Both teams want to win. Both teams have a lot of pressure on them. I don't think either really has the advantage except that the Red Sox have more experience, but you can take that for what it's worth.

Lester vs. Garza
Garza can be just as lights out as Lester, but Lester just does it with more frequency and consistency. It's hard not to give Lester the edge. He should be rested enough, and the adrenaline might overcome any fatigue. Garza pitched really well his last time out, but can he do it again? I'd have to say there's more of a chance that Lester does. I guess it'll be a red World Series.

Red Sox Looking into Peavy

Retro.

I'm surprised I haven't heard more about this, but because the Red Sox are still in the playoffs, I guess they're more focused on the playoffs. The nerve. All they're doing is slowing down the Peavy process by winning and looking for a World Series. The nerve. Anyway, according to this article, the Red Sox are looking into Jake Peavy after they finish the season, which could be tonight or a week and a half from now. I realize that Peavy has "said" he really only wants to play for an NL team, but you can never, I mean never, take that seriously. I believe everyone has a price, and Peavy might just be trying to get the Yankees or Red Sox to either give him a raise or accept that $22M option to play in such hostile environments.

Regardless, the two teams, Red Sox and Padres, matchup pretty well. The Padres want pitching and middle infield/outfield help. The Red Sox could give up two of Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, or Justin Masterson. Out of those, I would probably try to give the Padres Bowden and Masterson, but I'm guessing the Padres want Buchholz. It doesn't really matter which because the Red Sox have the pitching and the depth, something most do not have. As for position players, this might be the problem. The article mentions Lars Anderson, but the Padres have Adrian Gonzalez (let's talk about him in a minute) right now and Kyle Banks coming up quickly. In the middle infield department, would Argenis Diaz work? He doesn't hit much yet, but he's an excellent defender. What about Josh Reddick? He didn't play much at AA last season (34 games), but that doesn't really mean much, and the Padres did say the want a near MLB-ready outfielder. Reddick may only be able to play center for a bit, but that might be enough. Position players could be the sticking point, but I imagine the Red Sox could add in another pitcher (though not one of the three not included).

As for Adrian Gonzalez, if the Padres are really looking to rebuild, would you trade him? He's very affordable, but they have Kyle Banks almost or already ready. Could you trade Peavy, get the pitching he can bring, and then trade Gonzalez for more pitching and some position players? He'd bring back more than Peavy I would think. He hit .279/.361/.510 with 36 HR and 119 RBI this season, and his contract sees him getting $3M and $4.75M. There's then an option for all of $5.5M, but if he doesn't play well for whatever reason, the option does not have a buy-out. The Padres could rebuild by trading two players. But, would they?

The One Good Thing from ALCS Game 5

Come back.

I'm cheering for the Rays in this series, so when they lost Game 5, I had to find something positive. Well, I ran across this article on how Red Sox fans feel terrible to have left the game early. You know what, I'm glad they feel terrible. Why would you pay all that money to go to the game and then quit on your team? If they are your team, then why quit on them in a playoff game? I usually make a habit of not leaving games early unless I absolutely have to (appointment next morning, girlfriend getting antsy, cousins getting tired, etc.). I paid for the game, so I'll stay to see it through. It always amazes me how this always happens. People leave game. Team comes back to win. People feel bad. People continue to do it. Amazing.

Hank Says Joba to Start in 2009

That time is the eighth and maybe the seventh.

So, I guess that means he'll be the set-up man

The Debate on Peavy

Ante up. It's time to go all in.

I can't stand it. It makes my head ache. It makes my heart ache. It makes me excited. It makes me incredibly worried. My emotions rise. My stomach twists. This is the Jake Peavy situation. Do the Braves go after him or not? The more reports on him continue to have the Braves as ardent suitors for the ace, but of course, none of the reports actually say anything that means something. For all we know, they could be completely false. They could be half-truths. They could be the naked truth. Instead, I'm left here to twist and turn in my own head debating how good/bad this could be. So, let's get it out in the open.

Go Get Him
The Braves came in to the offseason in desperate need of starting pitching. They need it like they need vegetables. They're not absolutely necessary because you have other alternative, but the vegetables make you healthier. The Braves rotation consists of Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and then a rag-tag group of guys who have failed in their short stints or haven't even had short stints. But then, there's Peavy. He has a career ERA of 3.25, but 4 of his past 5 seasons have seen ERA's south of 3. He always seems to strikeout more than innings pitched, and he doesn't walk all that many people. I realize he had a little bit of a bump in the road, but that may have been due to his elbow injury early in the season. Because he pitched fairly well after that, I'll assume he's okay, and another offseason of rest will make things better. He's been durable in his career, never making less than 27 starts. As for his contract, he'll make $8M, $15M, $16M, $17M, and possible $22M over the length of his contract. Essentially, you'll get an ace for a relatively low cost, especially next year, for four seasons. That's a great contract. As for the no-trade clause, it actually helps the Braves. They are on a list of select teams who can get him. I'm guessing other teams would be interested, so this brings down the price to get him (although not much considering some of the teams on the list). As for what the Padres need in return, they're just prospects. Wouldn't you rather have a bonafide ace than unproven prospects?

Stay Away
I really, really want him. I want him so bad it kept me up until 5 in the morning last night thinking about it. This is how sad I am. However, making decisions based on emotions is usually a bad idea. Did you ever think how bad getting married for love really is? It's based on a potentially-fleeting emotion of lust and infatuation combined with some sense of being able to "get along" (I realize this is cynical and no where near Romantic, but you have to agree on some level). I am incredibly infatuated with Peavy, similar to how I am with this girl that sits two rows behind me in history class. Just because I want her doesn't mean she's good for me.

The Real Debate
Back to strictly baseball, the Braves don't have the farm system they once had, and everyone's a little gun-shy after the Mark Teixeira fiasco. However, Peavy is for four years instead of one and a half, but can the Braves really afford to give up more prospects? Reports indicate the Padres want two pitchers and a near-ready center fielder. This indicates to me that the first thing they asked for was Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen/Todd Redmond/Charlie Morton, and Jordan Schafer. The Braves need starting pitching, and good young starting pitching could solve a lot of problems. But still, giving up two still leaves them with two. Two who could end up just as good. As for center fielders, they can have Schafer. The Braves have a glut of outfielders, and Josh Anderson could do well there until Gorkys Hernandez is ready. Pitching is the big deterrent. Then again, if the Braves get Peavy and a free-agent (with $37M left, couldn't they make a run at Sabathia? Don't worry about the next years because Tim Hudson won't be there and his $15M is off the books making room), they won't need young starting pitching as much knowing that the ace through 3 spots are taken for the next four seasons. The Braves have really good pitching at A ball that could be here by the time Peavy walks away. But is it good to invest so much money in those pitchers knowing there are some good choices in your farm system? Will they even pan out thus losing the opportunity to have gained something for nothing? Also, the Braves are going to spend on free-agency anyway, thus still clogging up spots for the next few seasons anyway. The young pitchers could make the rotation much better, but again, there are still choices. The Braves want to get back to winning by pitching, and adding Peavy and someone else would really get back to that.

So what to do? I say offer them Josh Anderson/Gregor Blanco, Brent Lillibridge, Kris Medlen/Todd Redmond, and Scott Diamond (best ERA in the Braves' system) for Peavy. That gives them their center fielder, second baseman, and two pretty good pitchers. If the Padres want the deal talked about above involving Hanson and Schafer, I would be hard-pressed to say no unless they wanted a whole lot more. I'm sorry, but knowing they'll spend anyway for starting pitching, I really have to say they should get Peavy. If they get hurt, the Braves are screwed anyway.

He he

I'm a terrible person.

Tim Dierkes is a hero of mine, but I love this quote:

Baker believes DiPoto and LaCava have a leg up on Ng.

He he. I'll get my mind out of the gutter now.

Phils Pheelin' Phantastic

Doesn't that trophy seem a little over-the-top for this?

Well, the Phillies won last night to become the first team in the World Series. Cole Hamels threw another gem, and Billingsley did anything but bounce-back. Congratulations to the Phillies even though I'd really like to say Ph*** you, considering the division they are in and I'm just a bitter youth. Anyway, the Rays and Red Sox play tonight. I haven't decided about whether I'll blog it or not, but I think I might head out for another terrible movie. We'll see.

Matsuzaka vs. Kazmir
Kazmir hasn't pitched well so far this postseason, but Matsuzaka has. I think Kazmir might bounce-back tonight. He's been criticized quite a bit, and I think he'll be out to prove something. It amazes me to see people asking Rob Neyer if Kazmir to move to the 'pen. Why? This guy was pretty good this year and outstanding in previous years. He's hit a bump in the road here in the playoffs while everyone (well not everyone) is watching. Where were people last season or earlier this season? Not paying attention to the Rays, that's where. As for tonight, Kazmir will make a better appearance, but the Red Sox rebound in time to send it back to Tampa.

CC's Wife Has CC

There's one little Sabathia, but not the one I'm talking about.

Congratulations to CC Sabathia and his wife Amber on their third child. The name of their daughter is Cyia Cathleen. Two things here. One, her initials are still CC Sabathia, which can't be a coincidence. Second, does anyone else think it's weird to name your kid "Cy"?

And That Will Happen ...

See? They were plotting.

Okay, so I'm still thinking of a better title for this. For today, I'll settle with a rip-off of Shysterball. Anyway, last night the Rays continued to kick the crap out of the Red Sox. Who would have thought the Rays would hit so many home runs? I thought the main thing coming in was that they didn't have that much power? I guess this is what happens when Upton's shoulder seems to be healed and adding him to Peña and Longoria, who are just ridiculous. The nice thing for the Red Sox is that they're throwing Kazmir out there tomorrow night, so that should make give them at least another game to play. I have no idea what the heck Maddon is thinking. He thinks out of the box, and I love him for it. But, seriously, Kazmir? Are you trying to lose? Dice-K has been good (at getting out of trouble), and Kazmir has been ... unpredictable. Is Maddon trying to win this series in front of the home crowd? I imagine this played out last night:

Maddon: Woo hoo! We won again!

Friedman: Who would have thought we'd take the first two from the Red Sox at Fenway?

Maddon: I didn't. We could win the series at Fenway!

Friedman: Oh ... Actually, could we win at the Trop?

Maddon: Why?

Friedman: Well, it's just that we never get this many people in our stadium, so we have to try to take advantage of this as much as possible. If we could go home for one more game ... or even two ...

Maddon: Are you serious? Well, okay. I guess that means Kazmir can start Thursday.

Friedman: Why would you do that?

Maddon: I'm thinking "outside-of-the-box". Go with me on this. We'll just say that Shields "pitches better at home". That way, we lose tomorrow night, and we still have Shields, who is pitching better anyway, against Beckett for Game 6.

Friedman: Good idea. But do you think you could start Edwin Jackson for Game 6 and Shields for Game 7?

Now as for what will happen.

Billingsley vs. Hamels
It's a match-up of two bright young pitchers. One is brighter than the other considering he doesn't blame his teammates for him losing. Anyway, Hamels has the distinct edge in this one. He's pitched great, and his change-up should keep hitters off-balance. Billingsley will have to recover from his miserable Game 2 outing. Considering neither of the teams I predicted to win are the ones up 3-1, I'll go with the Phillies, but that just means the Dodgers will win.

BTW (I hate initials like this, so I only use them when I'm feeling frisky or in that sort of mood), I won't be predicting games next year. I only do it now because it is the playoffs, so it won't get old (actually, it probably has, but please just let me have my delusions). Next year, I plan to tell you what games are playing, what time, who the pitchers are, and whether or not you should use your MLB.TV to watch it. If you don't have MLB.TV, you should probably get it for next year. I watched almost half the Braves games this year until they just started sucking it up really bad. Then, I just watched some of the good match-ups. I'll tell you what those are so you don't have to look them up.

Bill Plaschke Is a Moron

I usually try to refrain from calling people morons, but this guy takes the cake.

I read an article today written by Bill Plaschke. I watched Around the Horn a few times when it first came on, but I quickly decided it was a terrible show. One reason for that was Bill Plaschke. I can never agree with him. After last night's loss, Plaschke argued that the Dodgers lack pitching depth.

Sure, they only have about three viable pitchers at the moment, but can you really argue that Greg Maddux is worse than Joe Blanton? They could have started Maddux, but Torre and the Dodgers took a chance. They needed a win, and Lowe has been the stud all year. Why not go to him? Then, I believe Lowe pitched pretty well through 5 until Torre inexplicably took him out of the game. You don't bring him back on three days rest and give him a pitch count. Lowe was only up to 75 pitches when he exited the game. That was after a 1-2-3 inning. If he was just starting to get into a rhythm, then why take him out? He could have gone at least two more innings. To blame the starting pitching is not the right answer.

On to the bullpen, the Dodgers had the 3rd best bullpen ERA in the majors. How is that bad? When you look for depth, Beimel, Kuo, Wade, and Saito had ERA's under 3, and Broxton and Park were barely over 4 (Park's was 3.40). How is that not having depth? Okay, Kuo and Saito have been recently injured, but that's not management's fault. There was nothing they could do. How many teams in the playoffs have six solid options out of the bullpen. Add in Maddux and Kershaw, and the bullpen should be just fine. Sorry, Plaschke, but the pitching depth is again not the problem.

The problem more or less comes down to Torre. He's been notorious for misuing his bullpen, and in this game, there was no reason to take Lowe out and put relievers in. It almost makes me think something happened to Lowe, but Lowe says he was ready to go. Why pull him? As for the relievers blowing it, there was no reason to believe they would. They've been solid all season. It was just a bad night. In all honesty, I refuse to blame Torre too much because he's won so much that you really can't question his intelligence. It was just one of those nights, but Plaschke didn't realize that. I have to hand it to him though, he does write well. There's no content, but the style's good.

ALCS Game 4

He probably needed something like this after last night.

Well, I was kinda right about yesterday. Lester had a bad day, although worse than I thought he'd have, but the Phillies did win, although Blanton didn't pitch particularly well. About Lester, I think he's earned enough respect for people to not think he choked, and for the most part, people seem to see this for what it is: too many innings. He's just tired. We can argue about innings and the causes of injuries, but it's safe to say that Lester is just tired. Then again, everyone has bad nights. It doesn't matter how much you want it and are not afraid of it. Sometimes, you just don't have it. That was Lester last night, and the Rays grabbed a 2-1 lead. Who would have thought? As for tonight's game:

Wakefield vs. Sonnanstine
The Rays are the worst team for Wakefield. They're fast, and I imagine every time they get on, they'll steal 'til their heart's content. His knuckler won't keep them on first, and Cash won't either for that matter. Sonnanstine actually seems to match-up fairly well with the Red Sox. He throws strikes and changes speeds. What he lacks is a true out-pitch, but he should still be effective. I don't know that either will last too terribly long, but I have a feeling the Rays will win their third game in a row.

Pujols Has Surgery

The NL really has already been his personal playground, but now healthy and entering his prime, he'll really put up some video game numbers.

I guess his elbow finally got to him. Albert Pujols had surgery on his ailing right elbow, but the Cardinals believe he'll be ready for Spring Training. It's hard to believe he'll only be 29 next season, but combine that with the fact he may finally be healthy, look for a monster season. However, this might make holding up another MVP Award more difficult.

Following Up and Following Through

Good man. Good man.

I wrote a post about Jeff Conine and his Ironman contest. Just in case anyone cared, he finished the race in 14 hours, 43 minutes, and 45 seconds, which to me is just amazing. Jeff Conine, you are now my hero. Just for trivia's sake, he became the first Major League Baseball player to finish the Ironman.

As a side but important note, he did this for the "Bone Marrow Transplant Program at Memorial Hospital West in Pembroke Pines as a tribute to his friend Howard Zimmerman, who lost his battle to cancer in November." The site for the place can be found here.

Tonight's Games

I know everyone loves the other picture of him pointing at his ribs or head, but I think it's funny seeing the batter calm the catcher down because it's usually the other way around.

You have to love the metaphorical and physical beatdown that took place last night. Los Angeles did indeed grab a game and are trying to make it a series.

Lester vs. Garza
If you pick Garza to win, you're an idiot. Therefore, I'm an idiot. I just think Lester has a bad outing. It won't be because he's hurt or choking (I think he's shown us that he doesn't choke), but he'll struggle as the innings continue to take their toll. He can't be that good all the time, can he? Rays take 2-1 lead when Garza goes 6 giving up 2 runs and Lester goes 5 giving up 4. Honestly, there's no method to it, but doesn't anyone else feel a let-down coming?

Lowe vs. Blanton
If you pick Blanton to win, you're an idiot. You really are this time. Dodgers even the series when Lowe gets pissed about his last outing and shuts the Phillies down for 8 innings of great pitching which gets him a 6 year/$110M contract from the already salivating Yankees. Blanton bows out after 4 bad innings.

Fun Times

Yes, this is how I feel right now. Crying and bent over in hell.

I realize things have been slow around here, but unfortunately, this is just one of those weeks you have as a college student: 2 papers and 2 midterms (all due or done on Thursday). In other words, I have been working my not-so-fine-tuned ass off trying to do all of it and will continue through the next few days. Therefore, I wouldn't expect anything significant until at least Thursday, but definitely Friday. Just keep checking over the next few days, and please come back from Friday on. I'll try to take some breaks here and there to make a quick post. As for the "Offseason Series", I am really behind, but I have had zero time over the past 4 or 5 days and won't over the next few. They take a little over an hour to do usually, so it can be difficult to find time to do. Anyway, excuse my absence over the next few days, but again, please come back.

Thank you.

Thoughts on ALCS Game 2 and NLCS Game 3

Seven current managers are younger than this guy.

I kind of figured last night's game would be a bit more high-scoring, but that was pretty ridiculous. It did make it entertaining though. Each one of those seven home runs were tagged. None of them were flyballs that just got out. Even Pedroia's, whose just cleared the wall twice, were rockets over the fence. In the end, the Rays pulled it out on a sacrifice fly. It was one of the most entertaining games I've seen in a while. This puts everyone on notice that the Red Sox won't just beat down on the Rays. Anyway, here are some thoughts about the game.

Josh Beckett
I really didn't think he was the answer in this one. I knew going into it that he'd still be rusty. He took almost two weeks off between his last regular season start and his first postseason start. Last night was all about rust and dealing with lingering effects of his injury. It just seemed like he threw fastball after fastball after fastball up there. It seemed like he had good movement, but the command was way off. It was either up, down the middle, or both. I almost thought he found it on the front-door fastball to Cliff Floyd during his first at-bat, but that was short-lived. Maybe he'll be right by Game 6, but I'm not sure I'd count on it.

Scott Kazmir
He's still being inconsistent, and I'm not sure anyone knows why. First, his command was off as well, but that's more usual for them than for Beckett. Kazmir usually has a bit better command, but he didn't have any secondary pitches working for him. His slider had some good bite to it at times last night, but he couldn't throw it for strikes and Boston wasn't swinging. He'll have some serious work to do this offseason.

Jason Bay
I'm really happy for this guy. It seems everyone said he wasn't Manny and couldn't come through when it counted, but he's been really awesome for the Red Sox this postseason. He's doing everything humanly possible. It must feel good to prove people wrong.

As for Game 3 of the Dodgers-Phillies series, the Dodgers really need to turn it around. Tonight's game sees Kuroda vs. Moyer, and the stats for the pitchers are essentially identical. Moyer works really well against free-swinging teams, so I think he'll have success tonight. Kuroda keeps the ball down and has an excellent 1.85 GB/FB ratio, but as Peter Gammons has pointed out, the Phillies are good low-ball hitters. I think it really comes down to Utley and Manny, and I think Manny gets the best of Moyer before Utley gets the best of Kuroda. Dodgers win and make the series 2-1.

Tonight's Games

Usually, but not right now.

I'm still trying to figure out a catchy title for this, so again, if anyone has a suggestion, please let me know. Anyway on to tonight's game.

Kazmir vs. Beckett
Beckett didn't pitch too well in his division series start, but Kazmir really didn't either. He just got away with a bit more. Hopefully for the Red Sox, the extra days off will help Beckett, but I still wouldn't expect him to be sharp. My guess is that he'll be better should there be a Game 6. Kazmir struggled in the second half, but his start in the division series was better. He still gave up 8 hits and 2 walks, but he found his way out of jams. He'll have to be better than that tonight. Who has the edge? I say Kazmir, but I only say that because I'm not sure Beckett is really ready to get back at it. If this was a healthy and polished Beckett, he's the no-brainer, but he had some serious rust against Los Angeles. Kazmir and the Rays pull the series even tonight.

Hank Back at It Again (Part 2)

Perfect. Just perfect.

Asked if he had taken a step back in the running of the Yankees, Hank Steinbrenner quickly said:

There is one very important point here. The most important thing to remember is this: If you didn't get it from me or my brother [Hal], it doesn't mean [anything]. I don't care about some piss-ant employee. If you don't get it from me or Hal, it's meaningless. I have a lot of things [in Tampa] and Hal is in New York, which is good.

Thank you Hank. That clears things up. However, it also points out his real role in the organization. If he's in Tampa but his brother and team are in New York, what exactly does Hank do (honestly, I think Tampa works more with the farm system, but I'm still not sure that Hank actually does any real work)? Anyway, another good quote:

I told Hal, if you live by the press, you die by the press. I didn't live by my own words.

Well, no.

Andruw Jones Still Thinks He Is an Everyday Player

Oddly enough, that's what Ned Coletti and Joe Torre did when he swung.

Yeah, but more like a player you could find every day.

Mariner's GM Search

The first female GM and first female Vice President in one year? My how things have changed. Sort of. If it happens.

According to team president Chuck Armstrong, the next GM will have less power and a smaller payroll than the previous GM Bill Bavasi. Not exactly sure what this ultimately means, but can we use the word "castration" if Kim Ng is chosen?

The Bat Debate

Not to mention what players could do to other players with those shards.

I saw this article about broken bats. I haven't heard this issue for awhile, so I thought I'd mention it. It's a difficult issue. On one hand, the players seem to think the bats make a difference, but on the other, the bats are potentially dangerous. So, should they use maple bats?

No
Maple bats are incredibly dangerous. They've hurt coaches, umpires, players, and fans. They break in a way that a large shard comes spiraling towards an unsuspecting person, and if the broken end hits someone, it can slice or even plunge into someone. If it hit the right spot, it is potentially fatal. With ash bats, there is a plausible alternative, and when those bats shatter, they shatter into a thousand pieces, all harmless. No one gets hurt. Because there is an alternative, they should switch back to ash bats. A maple bat can't make that much of a difference, can it?

Yes
Maple bats are potentially dangerous, but so are balls. Are we going to have to go to plush balls so that no one gets hurt? What about when guys throw the bats into the stands on accident? Why don't we just put screens all the way down to third base? That way, no one gets hurt. As for the players, they are supposed to be paying attention and should be able to get out of the way. Even if they can't, the chances of a bat hitting them is minuscule. The chances of a bat doing serious damage is even smaller than that. The game can be potentially dangerous, but will football outlaw tackling because it could paralyze someone? I doubt it. Is this only an issue because baseball has always been a relatively conservative game and doesn't like the new bats?

It's a difficult situation. You know it would be uncommon to see an injury, but you also have the mindset that one injury is too many. If they had that mindset, maple bats would be long gone. Maybe that's the most ominous sign. As of right now, it doesn't seem as though maple bats are on the front-burner. They'd rather worry more about instant replay. Anyway, because ash bats are probably just as good as maple bats, I would tend to think maple bats should be outlawed. If you have a decent alternative, especially one of almost equal value, you should probably use that instead. I just hope everyone realizes this issue isn't quite so "cut" and dry (too soon?).

It's Good to Slack

We all need to smile a little bit more.

Thursdays are always difficult days for me. I have three classes (from 11-3:30), and yesterday, I had to add on a Spanish movie that pushed back my getting home time to 5:30. Then, a couple friends called and wanted to go see a movie, so we went to Taco Tico (a better version of Taco Bell) and to see Death Race. I didn't get home until after 12, and I had no desire whatsoever to blog.

Anyway, if you haven't seen Death Race, you probably should. It's essentially the best "man" movie you can see. It has the guy from Transporter and Tyrese Gibson. The plot line goes as follows -- fight, slightly emotional scene, explosion, fight, explosion, hot girls, explosion, explosion, explosion, fight, hot girls, explosion, explosion, getaway scene, hot girl. Again, it's a guy's movie, but for $1.50, it was a steal (actually, I wore this ridiculous smiley face costume -- two chest-sized yellow smiley faces -- into the movie, and one of my friends paid for my ticket for doing such). You will be thoroughly entertained. You won't gain any insights, but you will be entertained.

Who's on the Mound for the Braves Next Season?

I really want this guy. Too bad that everyone else does, too.

When this season started, there was reason for optimism, but injuries killed that. Now, a season after many boasted the Braves' pitching depth, the Braves are scrambling for pitchers. So who makes sense?

Free-agency

CC Sabathia
He's on everyone's wish list, but he's on very few teams' actual list. He'll cost in the neighborhood of 7 years/$155M if I had to guess. The Yankees, Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, and Mets seem to be the Braves' biggest competition for the lefty. With $45M to spend, it seems as though the Braves have the resources to get him (especially noting that Hudson could come off the payroll next season), but with other needs such as another starting pitcher and a power-hitting left-fielder, spending half of that may not be the best idea.

AJ Burnett
This option seems more likely. He'll likely command a 5 year/$60M deal. While he may be worth it at the beginning, he likely won't be by the contract's end. Burnett is coming off a career year, but his health history is anything but clean. Still, he's a legit number two guy that a lot of people will want. Ultimately, he probably isn't worth the risk.

Paul Byrd
I've heard his name thrown around, but Wren said he wanted a 1 and 2 starter. Therefore, Byrd does not make it.

Ryan Dempster
If the Cubs didn't seem so inclined to keep him, he could be the guy the Braves would really pursue, but I see him staying with the Cubs. I'd like to see him in an Atlanta uniform, but then again, it usually isn't a good idea to give big contracts to guys who've really only had one good starting season in the past decade.

Jon Garland
His name has been thrown around, and I imagine he'll be in the second or third wave of pitchers signed. He really didn't do that well in Anaheim this year, and his career ERA is 4.47. He is durable, but I see a Carlos Silve-type mistake by signing him to anything more than 2 year/$12M, which is way below what I imagine he'll get.

Derek Lowe
Everyone is all hot-and-bothered over this guy and for good reason. He really established himself this season. I imagine he'll get 4 years/$60M at least for his services. That may only be the starting point. Still, his stuff makes me think he can continue to be very good the next two years and decent during the last few. He's worth the risk, but again, everyone really wants him.

Brad Penny
He had a terrible season this year, but he's made 30+ starts in 5 of 8 seasons. He's also been pretty good over the past few years, with this year as an exception. I'm guessing everyone will lay off of him for right now, but when the Braves only get one decent starter, they'll probably contact him. I'd give him two or three years if my doctors cleared him.

Oliver Perez
At only age 27, he's got the stuff to be an ace, but he always seems to be held back by something (mainly his walks). He hasn't been talked about very much, but he stands to make a lot of money after the first wave of pitchers is signed. My guess is that he could be a Brave after having dominated them over his career. He'd probably need a 4 year/$50-60M deal. Is he worth it? I guess it depends on what night you're asking. However, there's a legitimate shot he ends up a Brave. His age makes me think there's more upside to getting him than some of the other options.

Ben Sheets
I wrote about him earlier today. I imagine his injury puts a small dent in his payday, but once the first wave goes, someone will pony up big time. If I were the Braves, I might try to sneak in a 3 year/$45M contract to see if he bites while everyone else focuses on Sabathia, Lowe, and Dempster. He's injury-prone, but the talent is undeniable. I wouldn't go beyond four years with him though. I think 2 years with an option is perfect, but he'll likely need at least 3 years with an option.

Randy Wolf
Does anyone else not see what all the fuss is about? He's only 32, but he hasn't pitched more than 30 games (discounting this year) since 2003 and hasn't been any good since 2002. Based on that, people seem to really like this guy but hate on Sheets and Penny. I'm not sure why though. I guess the main reason is that he won't cost as much in years or dollars as the other guys, but he's also not as good as the others. I think I'd rather have Penny.

Trade

Ian Snell (PIT)
His name is floated around a lot, but do you really want to risk it coming off a really bad year? I think you might if you could get a better deal. I think he needs a change of scenery and a better team, but his 5.42 ERA needs to come way down. His K's went down, his BB's went up, but at age 27 (next season), he still has some good time ahead of him. He could be signed through 2012 at a very affordable rate, so people will bite. If the Pirates don't demand the big prospects and want a Jones, Parr type of deal, I would go for it, but I stay away if the big guys are mentioned.

Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)
There haven't been any rumors about this guy, but I think he could end up in some talks as the Orioles continue to rebuild. He's going to be 30 next season, but he's been awesome the past couple of years. My guess is that they'd want a pretty penny for him, but he still has at least three years of arbitration and is therefore affordable. What do they want? I'm not sure how the teams match-up, but I'm thinking Lillibridge and Medlen could peak some interest.

Zach Greinke (KC)
His name has been thrown around a lot, but it will take a boatload to get him. He's not very old at all and very affordable, but those things make the cost of getting him very high. The Braves would have to give up at least one huge prospect for him and several very good ones. The cost here is very prohibitive.

John Lannan (WAS)
He's 24 and I'm not sure if the Nationals are willing to trade within the division. Also, his 3.91 ERA is probably misleading considering his K/BB ratio (117/72). If they didn't want a lot for him, I'd think about it, but I wouldn't give up anything major for him.

Aaron Harang (CIN)
Man, he had a bad season. That makes me think his trade value is low, but I think the Reds will ask for the type of prospects as if 2008 didn't happen. In that case, I don't know that I'd risk it, but he's a nice comeback candidate.

Jake Peavy (SD)
He's clearly the best option of the group, and honestly, I'd give up a lot for a legit Cy Young guy who won't be that expensive. He's been pretty durable over his career (never under 27 starts), and he'd instantly give the rotation a huge facelift. The problem is that I imagine two of Schafer/Heyward/Freeman/Medlen/Hanson would have to go in order to get him, plus others. It would be hard to part with those prospects, but he's signed through 2012. Can you tell me Hanson will be as good during that time period? Man, he's tempting.

Matt Cain (SF)
The Braves don't have the MLB-ready bats to get this done. He'll only move if Howard or Fielder is offered, and the Giants seem pretty reluctant even with that.

So who do you take? It's a hard call. If I were Wren, I'd make one heck of a push for Peavy. It'd be tough to give up that much for a pitcher, but Cy Young guys don't come around very often. Only $8M due next year leaves $37M to really go after a Sabathia and have a great 1-2-3 punch to give this team a real edge. Then, the left over $11M could go to a decent left field bat. Heck, maybe the owners would fork over more money if they knew it could land a Burrell as well.

Okay, back to reality. I don't know if the Braves could get Peavy, but I wouldn't count them out. However, I see more of a (pick two) Snell/Penny/Lowe/Burnett/Sheets/Perez group, which wouldn't be bad. Out of that group, I'd like Sheets and Lowe.

Prince Fielder

This is where Prince landed.

There have been a lot of rumors talking about the Brewers possibly trading Prince Fielder. For the most part, it seems people are very scared of Prince's weight, so they won't give up as much for him. There were also rumors of a Matt Cain-for-Prince Fielder trade, but most people seem to think that the Giants would get the raw end of the deal. But would they?

Fielder took a step back this season as he hit 16 fewer HR than he did last year, but you kind of had to expect that considering his mammoth 2007 season. People pitched to him more carefully, and he failed to adjust (his BB went down and K went up). Once he makes some adjustments, he should get back to about 40 HR next season. That's a middle of the order bat that has a career line of .278/.370/.533. He's not just some ordinary hacker. While 134 K isn't good, it could be much worse. Defensively, he is a liability, but seriously, when was the last time someone turned down a 40 HR guy who couldn't catch?

Matt Cain took a tiny step back this season as his ERA rose .1 and he walked 12 more people, but he did pitch 17 more innings. When most think of this guy, they see a number one pitcher, but is he? His lowest ERA is 3.65, which is good but that would make Jurrjens a legit ace. I'm not sure either of which is true. It's true Cain gives you IP and K, but he walks quite a few and gives up hits. His career GB/FB is .78 (indicating he is a flyball pitcher). Outside of the friendly confines of PacBell (AT&T, whatever) Park and the offensively challenged West, would he be as successful? Again, he misses bats, but those innings and fastballs might eventually take their toll on him, leading to injury or decline. That and he's not an ace. He's a good number two, but he's not an ace yet.

Honestly, a contending team should really think about trading for Fielder. Several teams need a first baseman, and he's an impact addition. You'd be getting a 3 year, below-market contract for a 40 HR guy, and by the time his body really begins to wear down, he'll head for free-agency and you get two drafts and three attempts at the playoffs and World Series. All for some prospects. I'd think about it.

Sheets' Injury

Sexy. He's fallen off the radar a bit, which might be best for a team in need of starting pitching.

According to Ben Sheets' agent, his injury is similar to a hamstring pull, but in his elbow. Obviously, this hurts his value on the open market, but supposedly, he should be 100% in a month. No one should give him a five-year deal, but I don't believe he would have gotten it. If I were a GM, I'd have several tests run on his shoulder, elbow, and anything else I could think of. Then, if he was healthy and my doctors (Dr. Andrews too maybe) said he was fine, I'd give him his 3 year/$45M deal. I realize that that's roughly what Jason Schmidt got and it didn't work out, but it was probably still worth the risk. He could have been great. He wasn't, but for all intents and purposes, he could have been. If I were a team like the Braves, I might wait it out to see if I could get a 2 year/$25-30M deal with an option for a third year. Again, check him out thoroughly, but if he's completely healthy, there's really no bigger of a chance that he'll get hurt that Sabathia or anyone else will have of getting hurt.

Anger Never Takes a Holiday

Well done Cubbies. Just add it to everything else you've done.

After the Cubs were swept from the playoffs, the water pipe in the visitor's dugout immediately sprang a leak. The official story is that the plumbing just had an issue. Obviously, the timing is impeccable. You have to think that a Cubs player took a bat to it in frustration. Jim Hendry appearently said:

Find out how much it cost, and we'll pay for it.

You don't just pay for things like that if you did nothing to cause it. If you did nothing, you probably want the Dodgers to replace balls or bats that might have been ruined. Anyway, it just goes to show you how angry people get over a game. When Tom Glavine put things in perspective after Game 162 last season, people criticized him. The thing is that he was right. You don't have to throw a hissy-fit when you lose. And I thought the days of 'Roid Rage were over.

ALCS: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Add the playoff atmosphere and maybe Shields doesn't whiff on Crisp this time.

Red Sox (95-67) vs. Rays (97-65)

Red Sox: 9th in ERA, 8th in Starter's ERA, 11th in Bullpen ERA, 3rd in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored

Well, the Red Sox screwed up my perfect first round. I had three of fours teams, which isn't bad. As for this series, you have the unstoppable Red Sox vs. the scrappy Rays (Does that sound like a bar?). Looking at stats, the Rays have the edge in pitching while the Red Sox have the better offense. Each team played really well in their division series, so it should be an interesting match-up. Let's dive in.

Why the Red Sox win:
No one can top their experience, and when it comes to crunch time, they'll be more equipped to handle it. Josh Beckett needs to be healthy and able to pitch in two games if needed. If he's not, he puts his team in a severe disadvantage. It would also help if Jason Bay continues to hit like Manny Ramirez and if David Ortiz would freakin' show up. Granted, they didn't need him, but they might this time. Actually, when you look at it, Youkilis, Ortiz, and Pedroia all had bad series. I don't think the Red Sox can afford that again.

Why the Rays win:
The baseball gods seem to be smiling on them, but honestly, it's the defense and pitching. Not so much the starting pitching, but Miller, Bradford, Balfour, and Howell had ERA's of 0.00. Kazmir, Garza, and Shields will need to step it up. None of them match-up well with Lester at this point.
Offensively, they need Evan Longoria to make a better contribution than just his one game outburst. The Rays can't afford the offense to sputter.

Offense: Red Sox
Defense: Rays (because Lowell is out)
Game 1: Matsuzaka vs. Shields --> Even
Game 2: Lester vs. Kazmir --> Red Sox
Game 3: Beckett vs. Garza --> Even (until Beckett proves he's healthy)
Game 4: Byrd vs. Sonnanstine --> Rays
Game 5: Matsuzaka vs. Shields
Game 6: Lester vs. Kazmir
Game 7: Beckett vs. Garza --> Red Sox
Bullpen: Rays
Closer: Papelbon vs. Balfour/Wheeler --> Red Sox

This series is a series full of surprises. Neither Shields nor Matsuzaka pitched well in their first starts, but they can each shut down the other team. Kazmir is as good as Lester, but he's not showing it and Lester's been dominant. Is Beckett healthy? I'm betting when Game 7 rolls around, he will be, but Game 3 will be a struggle. Byrd and Sonnanstine are an interesting pair, but I don't have a lot of faith in Byrd even though he's had postseason success. My guess is Dice-K and The Shield split 1 and 5, but the difference is Lester winning 2 and 6. Beckett wins Game 7 as the Red Sox head to the World Series ... again. Why don't we hate them like we hate the Yankees?

Red Sox vs. Dodgers in the World Series. The ultimate stage where Manny will be the ring leader, the elephant, and the clown.

The Real Ironman

Not this Ironman either.

No, not Cal Ripken Jr. Actually, I'm talking about Jeff Conine. He's going to try to do the Ironman challenge which consists of a 2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike ride, and a marathon. Then, you have to do it in under 17 hours. I can't even imagine attempting something like that. Anyway, he makes an interesting point that I rarely think about:

Baseball has probably the worst-conditioned athletes. Running around the bases four times and running down four to six baseballs is not physically taxing.

I completely agree. When you have a sport with Greg Maddux, CC Sabathia, and Prince Fielder, then obviously baseball players aren't well conditioned. Most are, but I guarantee you that football, basketball, soccer, and hockey players are in much better shape. Regardless, that's one of the things that makes baseball better than the other sports. You can relate to baseball players because they're not the 6'8", 250 lb. rock-solid masses that you see in football and basketball. Not that all baseball players have a gut, but baseball definitely has more than any other sport besides golf and bowling (we can debate the definition of sport later). When I watch football and basketball, there's this certainty that I can never play those sports. I'm not tall enough, muscular enough, or fit enough to do it. But, baseball is one thing I feel like I could still do. With just a little workout and some batting cage reps, I can be back at it. It's totally and utterly untrue, but that's the sense you get from watching baseball. That you can still go out there and do it. That's why you see so many softball and baseball leagues still around even for adults. Basketball and football leagues are out there, but based on no research other than observation, I bet there are more adult softball and baseball leagues. We all feel like we can still do it. I love baseball.

No Game 5's

The Rays are the only team I am cheering for, but will I choose them to get to the World Series? Wait 'til later.

So ... I was wrong. Completely wrong. It's been known to happen. The Rays won behind a sparkling showing from Andy Sonnanstine, and Gavin Floyd utterly embarassed himself. Who's looking for the Ozzie quotes? Then, the Red Sox took Game 4 from the Angels behind a great start from a formidable Jon Lester and late-inning heroics. Nice job youze guys.

A couple thoughts. First, if the Rays win the World Series, do people finally realize that pitching and defense really do win championships? Second, if the Red Sox win again, will they be as hated as the Yankees? It always seems like they get mostly love from everyone. The Patriots used to be cheered, but now, everyone hates them. Third, does anyone else hate Harold Reynolds as much as I do? Does anyone know if he's announcing any games on FOX because I don't want to suffer through him anymore?

I would like to note that I was 3/4 on the first round, so let's see how I do in the Championship Series. Something tells me I get none right.

Who's in Left for the Braves Next Season?

How much do the Marlins want?

As I started the last post on the Braves, I realized that I really shouldn't spend a whole lot more on them than I did on other teams. It wouldn't be fair. Therefore, I'm writing this (yes, essentially it means that I'm focusing more on the Braves, but this can really count as a random thing I'm interested in; stop snickering) to explore the Braves' options for left fielders. I'll probably write one more about the starting pitching situation later (STOP). So here we go:

Free-agency

Moises Alou
No.

Garrett Anderson
Valuable bat, but you can't trust him to play the outfield and stay healthy.

Milton Bradley
This is a sleeper that no one's talking about. He didn't play the outfield much this season, but another year removed from his ACL injury, he might be able to play it next season. Bradley does want a multi-year deal, but I think the Braves could offer a two-year deal with a third year option. I don't think I'd give him three guaranteed years. He'd be in an impact bat, though.

Pat Burrell
The first half for Burrell showed his promise, but his second showed why he's never reached that promise. He seems to always do that -- have one good and one bad half --, but there's no denying his ability. He instantly gives you 30-35 HR, and he'd have more RBI's without Utley and Howard ahead of him. Unfortunately, he's a terrible defender, but the Braves have two good outfielders in Francoeur and Anderson/Blanco/Schafer who could adjust to help. Regardless, Burrell will likely command 5 years/ $70M, and by age 36, he may not be worth it.

Adam Dunn
Only 28, Dunn is a better version of Burrell. His BA might be lower, but his OBP and HR are better. He can't play defense either, but if you're willing to take Burrell, you should be willing to have Dunn. He's a clean-up hitter, and he should be able to last throughout his 5-6 year deal. My guess is that he'll want 5-6 years/ $75-90M. He'd be a better bet than Burrell, but he's still not ideal.

Raul Ibañez
He's a deceptively good player, and at age 37, he won't command many years. The downside is that he's not a big power hitter, but moving away from Safeco could help that. Regardless, he hits a lot of doubles and adds 20-25 HR and a .280-.290 BA. He's the ideal option I would think (except that he's older), but he'll be a very popular man this offseason. I see 3 years/ $40-45M. Is it too much? Probably.

Manny Ramirez
He's a big hitter, but he can't field and will cost $80-100M over 4 years. He's probably not worth it, especially since the Braves need more than a LF.

Juan Rivera
A few years ago, he hit 23 HR and 27 2B in 124 games, but injuries have since derailed his career. He could be a bargain in the Milton Bradley mold, but he may be useless. It's the risk you take. I don't know that I'd really take him unless the Braves got Sabathia and Lowe to pitch.

Bobby Abreu
He wants 3 years, which might be a bit much to give him. I'd give him 2 and an option. He's still a valuable offensive player, but his defense is declining. At age 34, he's starting to get old, and this means he'll probably start to decline before those three years are up. I don't think it would be wise to drop 3 years/ $35M on him.

Casey Blake
He's still in good shape, and he hit pretty well this season. However, I really don't see it happening again next year. I'd rather the Braves get a legit 4 hitter instead of a guy like him.

Trades

Jeremy Hermida (FLA)
The Marlins are looking to cut costs, and Hermida will be up for arbitration. That means whoever gets him, gets him for three years. He didn't have a great season this year, but his home/away splits are pretty staggering (.288/.364/.487 with 13 HR on the road). Also, because he had an off year, his trade value isn't quite as much. To top it off, the Marlins will likely need a new 2B when they trade Uggla, and the Braves could part with Lillibridge or Prado (Johnson goes into arbitration, so they won't want him). On top of one of them, the Braves may have to add someone in the Kris Medlen, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes category. Much more than that, and I wouldn't do it. Also, would the Marlins trade within the division?

Jason Bay (BOS)
I only address it because it has been talked about, but there is .0001% of a chance that it happens.

Matt Holliday (COL)
Because it's a good thing to give up your farm system for one year of a Scott Boras client.

Xavier Nady (NYY)
See Jason Bay.

Alex Rios (TOR)
With Snider and Lind, would they consider trading him after a slightly disappointing season. Even if they did, they'd probably want too much back.

Jermaine Dye (CWS)
I've heard rumors about him being traded, but I hear they want young pitching back. I wouldn't give up Jurrjens or Hanson.

Delmon Young (MIN)
How many Jeff Francoeurs do you want? In all seriousness, his SLG was only .003 points lower than last year and his BA and OBP rose. With his frame and his age (23), he should develop the power people want from him. Still, he's not a legit clean-up guy yet, and that's what the Braves need. If the Twins aren't asking the world, I would consider a Lillibridge, Parr swap, but I think the Twins would think more Schafer, Hanson.

Magglio Ordoñez (DET)
He's still a very productive player, but he's awfully expensive ($18M next season). If the Tigers are willing to take Lillibridge, Redmond, and Brandon Jones, I might think about it, but I think I'd ask them to eat $5M of his salary at least.

Kosuke Fukudome (CHC)
You were supposed to laugh.

Andruw Jones (LAD)
Did it work this time? Alright, fine.

You can generally figure out by how much I talk about a player how interested I would be. Out of the trades section, I would prefer Hermida if the Marlins aren't asking for much, but if I need a free-agent, I would think Adam Dunn or Raul Ibañez.

Offseason Series: Atlanta Braves

I just want it to be 1995-2000 again.

It really depresses me to think that the Braves were tied for the sixth-worst team in baseball this season. To say that this season was a disappointment is an understatement. There were dreams of division championships and World Series victories, but injuries effectively stomped all over that. The rotation of Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, and Jair Jurrjens looked to be one of the best. There were no real indications of the breakdowns. Smoltz hadn't been hurt in years, Glavine had never been hurt, and Hudson never had any serious injuries. That didn't matter as statistical variability ravaged the pitching staff. Other injuries to Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, Manny Acosta, Matt Diaz, Mark Kotsay, and Chipper Jones continually dented the team and farm system. The 72-90 record says it all. The Braves were not good this year. Is it possible to have a return to form next season?

Brian McCann is an All-Star catcher who will not be leaving anytime soon. He had another great season, although fatigue eventually "caught" up with him as he played in 145 games. As his backup, Clint Sammons should do just fine and be a little better offensively than Corky Miller was. There are a few decent guys in the minors, but no one of immediate consequence.

Casey Kotchman appears to be the first baseman next season as Chipper's shoulder has no real damage. He didn't hit real well when he came over, but he had a solid September. A full year should put him back in good graces with the Atlanta fans. Scott Thorman could be a potential option, but I'm betting Kala Ka'aihue becomes a sleeper for late next season. If he does well, the Braves might trade Kotchman to make room.

Kelly Johnson's torrid September makes him the guy at second base next season. Before, he appeared to be taking a step back, but that last month brings more thoughts of Chase Utley. I won't get too excited, but he'll be pretty good next year. As for other candidates, Brent Lillibridge, Omar Infante, and Martin Prado are definite candidates. When Wren talks about having players to deal, this is part of what he's talking about, I believe. A potential deal with Florida could have Lillibridge or Prado being traded for Jeremy Hermida (along with maybe a decent but unspectacular pitcher -- James Parr!) considering they want to trade Dan Uggla. I'd keep Lillibridge for his potential and speed, which are better than Prado's.

Yunel Escobar continues to show why he's the shortstop of the future. He did very well offensively (still needs more power though, at least from a doubles standpoint -- only 24) and was great defensively. It seems Wren is satisfied with his infield, so don't expect Johnson or Escobar to be going anywhere. Should anything happen, Lillibridge could be his replacement.

Chipper once again is the third baseman, but his 128 games played continues to be a problem. There are no real candidates until Eric Campbell, but he'll likely only be in AA next season. Chipper has one more year in his contract, so things will get interesting come July 31st if the Braves are out of contention.

Outfield is a question mark for the Braves. Jeff Francoeur will man right field, but can he return to his 2006 and 2007 form? No one knows who will play center as Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and Jordan Schafer will fight it out for the spot. Personally, I think Anderson is the best option, Blanco (and Anderson for that matter) could be traded, and Schafer could use another year of development. If Anderson is traded, I expect Schafer to be the center fielder. As for left, no one knows either, but Brandon Jones is the only in-house guy. The Braves don't want him to be the starter until he proves something, so they'll look via trade or free-agency. Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Xavier Nady, Matt Holliday, and Jason Bay are nice to think about, but don't expect any of them in Atlanta next season. More likely candidates are Juan Rivera, Casey Blake, Raul Ibañez, and Jeremy Hermida. The Braves should be able to find someone.

The starting rotation is in a bit of a crisis right now. Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo are the only locks right now. I expect Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, Tommy Hanson, and Todd Redmond to fight it out for a fifth spot, potentially. Potentially because John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, or Mike Hampton may be re-signed (I think, oddly enough, that Hampton is most likely) for the fifth spot, which means Richmond may have one hell of a rotation next season. As for the first two spots, the Braves have already stated their desire to get two starters. AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Ryan Dempster, and Oliver Perez seem most likely here. Sabathia will likely be too expensive, but he's not a bad option. Other sleepers could be Randy Wolf, Paul Byrd, and Randy Johnson.

The bullpen actually looks fairly good for next year. Mike Gonzalez has to be the closer, and Soriano will likely be the set-up man. Hopefully, Peter Moylan will come back soon and join Blaine Boyer, Manny Acosta, and Jeff Bennett. The last spots will go to Phil Stockman, Zach Schreiber, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Ridgway, Jorge Julio, or Vladmir Nuñez. The Braves could bring back Will Ohman, but they usually don't spend a lot on free-agent relievers. I don't expect them to get any free-agents here unless they sneak away with Doug Brocail, Darren Oliver, or Al Reyes. Another interesting option might be John Smoltz if his shoulder isn't healthy enough to start.

The Braves have the base for a good team next year. Wren has gone into contention mode, so they won't be rebuilding. They need big chunks (two big starters and a big bat), but they have the money and some prospects to work with. If they somehow succeed (which I'm not sure they will), the Braves could be a sleeper on several people's list, but I don't expect them to get the big starters even with the money they have. Too many other people are looking for what they need. We'll see, but this could be a defining offseason for Frank Wren.

Game 4's

Will this happen ... again? You all seem to think it will. Can't say I blame you.

I'm doing fairly good at this prediction thing during the playoffs, but I'm sure it won't last long. I actually like taking a look at games, and I might do it next year in kind of the opposite way Shyster does his "And that happened ..." segment (meaning I'll take a look at the night's upcoming games instead of last night's -- a preview if you will) . I need a name for it. If you have a suggestion, leave a message in the reMarks section. Anyway, on to tonight't game

Lester vs. Lackey --> Lester got the better of Lackey in the first game, and he has to have the edge coming into this one. However, I say Lester lets the situation get a hold of him, and the Angels scrounge out a Game 4 victory.

Sonnanstine vs. Floyd --> Floyd definitely has the edge in this, and I think the White Sox also force a Game 5. But, please don't tell me that Javier Vazquez will pitch Game 5. That would just be a waste.

I'll Play Anywhere

Get ready. 10 days after the World Series will bring mass chaos with benjamins flying all over the place.

And with those words, let the bidding begin and the Yankees winning. Damn.

NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers (84-78) vs. Phillies (92-70)

Dodgers: 2nd in ERA, 4th in Starter's ERA, 3rd in Bullpen ERA, 24th in Runs Scored
Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored

Who would've predicted this matchup? Oh, I think I did. I realize how narcissistic that sounded, but let me have my moment ... Okay, it's over, and I got lucky. Anyway, the Dodgers swept the Cubs on the strength of their pitching staff and on Manny's shoulders. The Phillies took out the Brewers in four games on the strength of their pitching staff. When looking at the match-ups, the Phillies look like the better team with an edge to the starters going to Los Angeles. Somehow, I think that might be the breaking point.

Why the Dodgers win:
They continue to pitch lights out, and Takshi Saito returns to form. They need him to help them win this series. Broxton pitched in all 3 games in the Cubs series, and asking him to pitch all of them again might be too much. The offense also needs to keep up the good work, and Manny is Manny (*themarksmith shakes his head*). Rafael Furcal really came through and will need to continue, but Kemp and Ethier need to pick it up against the Phillies.

Why the Phillies win:
Hamels continues to pitch the way he did in Game 1 against the Cubs ... twice. They then need Utley and Howard to actually ... you know ... do their jobs and hit. It would also be nice if Brad Lidge came back and pitched more like he did in the regular season. The X-factor? Jimmy Rollins. If he fails, the team goes down.

Offense: Phillies
Defense: Phillies
Game 1: Hamels vs. Lowe --> Even
Game 2: Myers vs. Billingsley --> Dodgers
Game 3: Moyer vs. Kuroda --> Even
Game 4: Kershaw vs. Blanton --> Even
Game 5: Hamels vs. Lowe
Game 6: Myers vs. Billingsley
Game 7: Moyer vs. Kuroda
Bullpen: Phillies (just because I'm not sure about Saito)
Closer: Lidge vs. Saito/Broxton --> Phillies

Tough choice between the two teams. Both looked pretty good dispatching their respective opponents in the previous series. I think Billingsley is just a smidge better than Myers (at least more predictable) and Hamels is just a smidge better than Lowe. The Dodgers win 3 of the 4 games they pitch and take the series in six games.

Offseason Series: Baltimore Orioles

Boy, they got rid of him at the right time didn't they? So ... who's next?

I feel like I keep repeating myself, but another year leads to another disappointment for the Orioles. On May 15th, the Orioles were 22-19 and looking respectable, but by the end of the season, they finished 68-93, meaning they were 46-74 the rest of the way. Offense wasn't the problem as they finished 11th in the majors in runs scored as guys like Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis, and Melvin Mora had very good seasons. However, when you finish 29th in ERA, you just can't win. If the Orioles wanted to win, they might want to take the Braves' stance and add a few veteran starters for next season, but is that all they need?

Catcher is a bright spot for the Orioles in a two-fold way. First, Ramon Hernandez is a solid backstop. Second, Matt Wieters (.365/.460/.625 in AA) is ready for the Majors, and I almost assume he'll be the starter come early April. With Hernandez being a good catcher and the Marlins, Mets, Royals, Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers potentially needing a catcher, he has some trade value. He's owed $8M next year and holds an option for $8.5M for 2010, so he wouldn't be terribly taxing and the Orioles could afford to eat some of his salary for one season. Then, Wieters could come up and start.

No one really knows who will play first base next season for the Orioles. Kevin Millar could be re-signed, but I wouldn't waste my money for the 20 HR. Aubrey Huff is the DH, and I don't think they want him at first. Mark Teixeira is the first baseman of their dreams, but I don't see that happening either. I'm not sure if the Yankees will really give him everything he wants, but I'm guessing the Angels make the biggest play for him. Tim Dierkes thinks he's not worth it, but signing Tex would mean the Orioles have a clean-up hitter when they're ready to contend in a couple years. It just depends on two things: a) are the Yankees interested and b) can they make the biggest offer. Oscar Salazar (31 next season) may be a bit old, but he really did well at AAA (.316/.371/.512) and could make a decent stop-gap in his prime. Can Nolan Reimold play first?

Second base seems to be the one certainty in the infield with Brian Roberts there. They are talking about an extension with him, but I think it would be best to trade him while his value is high. The Indians, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Dodgers, and Cardinals would be interested. Roberts may not be as productive when the Orioles are ready to contend. They should trade him and fill holes. Elder Torres and Mike McCoy would be possible in-house replacements.

Melvin Mora at third base is another veteran who might find himself in a new uniform come next season. He had a comeback season and has some trade value, although he may not bring back a huge piece, and the Dodgers, Brewers, Indians, and Angels could be interested. Mike Costanzo and Scott Moore are possible replacements should Mora be traded.

Shortstop is a major weakness for the Orioles, and I imagine they'll try to fix that this offseason by trades. I think it would be interesting if they made a bid for Furcal, but he and Roberts are in the same situation that they may not be productive when the team is ready. They might be though. As for farm guys, Luis Hernandez and Blake Davis are possibly the best options, but they're not good ones.

Outfield is the source of optimism for the Orioles. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are an excellent start as they are 24 and 23, respectively. Those guys are solid players that will be around for awhile. Luke Scott is another solid player, but I expect he could be traded this offseason or at next year's deadline when Nolan Reimold should be ready to take over. Reimold, Jones, and Markakis have the potential to be a very good, young outfield for the next few years.

The starting rotation is another place where major changes are needed. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid start to the rotation, but one pitcher does not a rotation make. Daniel Cabrera has proven over and over again that he is not capable of being a productive pitcher, and the Orioles should let him go. Somehow, I think they'll give him one more chance because they control him for another year, but why pay him millions for him to be terrible. Matt Albers could be inserted into the rotation, but he wasn't any good in that spot this season (6.35 ERA). Chris Waters, Brian Burres, Radhamez Liz, and Garrett Olson are the favorites to fill out the rotation, but Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, and Bradley Bergesen are AA guys who have some promise and might get some looks. Troy Patton is another option, but he tore his labrum and probably won't be an option next season. Trades will be the most likely avenue of improvement, but free-agency is another. If the Orioles want to contend, they can look at a Burnett, Dempster, or Oliver Perez, but I wouldn't want to waste the money just yet. There are decent but unspectacular free-agents after next year they might go after instead.

As for the bullpen, it could be good. It could be bad. Chris Ray might be ready in time to help, but George Sherill looks to be the closer for next season. Jim Johnson, Jamie Walker, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Alberto Castillo, and Fernando Cabrera seem to be the others. Rocky Cherry and Kam Mikolio are other options. They don't need to waste more money here.

Could next season be good for the Orioles? It's actually a reasonable possibility. Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Mora, and Huff could make a pretty good offense. With the addition of two good starters, they might be able to make a run. The addition of Chris Ray would only help that. The thing is that the Orioles aren't the only guys looking for starters, and I doubt most pitchers would want to come to Baltimore. In my opinion, next year isn't the year, but if they trade some veterans and get back some young starting pitchers, middle infielders, and first baseman, they could be ready in 2010.

Selig Reminds Owners of Economic Crisis

His head isn't in the ground anymore.

In an interesting article, Selig warned teams to not get too overconfident and overprice their tickets. Say what you want to about his role in steroids, the All-Star Game, and the Wild Card, but you can't deny Selig's influence on the economics of the game. At almost every turn, he's helped the MLB make huge profits, and in this instance, he's protecting those profits. He's looking forward and looking out for the consumer (which is really looking out for himself, I agree, but is there really such a thing as an unselfish act?). Hopefully, the owners listen.

CC to Yanks?

Just change 2003 to 2009 and George to Hank, and everything else seems pertinent.

I completely agree with Buster Olney on CC Sabathia. If he chooses New York, he'll choose the Yankees, mainly because they'll choose him. With the Red Sox seemingly in the chase for Peavy, the Yankees will want to counter, and Sabathia is really the only appropriate counter. For all the stuff said about Sabathia wanting to go to the West Coast, don't believe it. It's probably not true, and when CC sees all those C-notes, he'll lose his sense of homesickness. If he was really sentimental, he would have taken the Indians' deal before he left. However, he didn't, and I imagine it's because he knew someone would drop a blank check on his lap.

As for LA, the Dodgers seemingly don't have the money as they had to ask for teams to eat salaries at the deadline, and the Angels have said they don't really want to increase payroll. I think the Dodgers might prefer to keep Lowe, and the Angels have lots of young pitching. The Angels could feasibly use their farm system to land a Peavy (who is just a little worse, but his contract would be less-burdensome) or a Greinke (the Royals could use more players, and Ron, would you like an Adenhart for Greinke switch, as long as a few others like Brandon Wood came along?).

The Braves will definitely make a bid, but I doubt they'd be able to beat out a Yankees offer. Again, if CC doesn't really want LA, then the Yankees will give him the biggest offer. The Braves will try, but unless CC doesn't want the New York lifestyle or LA, the Braves should focus elsewhere.

The Brewers will probably try to retain CC as well, but I don't see them bringing him back. He has no loyalty to them, and they won't be able to pay him the most money. The Brewers really need to add multiple arms instead of just one big one.

Therefore, the Yankees seem to be the likely winners here. For all the talk about the Yankees focusing on youth and development, I can't see them passing this up. Cashman might show more restraint than most would in that situation, but I'd have to imagine he'll go for it.

So, if the Red Sox get Peavy and the Yankees get CC, who has the better rotation? The Yankees would have Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Mussina/Pettite/free-agent, and Hughes/Mussina/ Pettite. The Red Sox would have Peavy, Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield/Byrd/free-agent/Bowden/Masterson. Each have three aces essentially pitching for them in this scenario. The edge would go to the Red Sox only because we know Lester has gone a full season and Chamberlain hasn't, but Chamberlain might ultimately be better than Lester. I'd probably give the Dice-K vs. Yankee no. 4 to Dice-K unless Mussina comes back and pitches like he did this year. The five slot could go to the Yankees, but mainly because the 5 slot is so open and unpredictable for the Red Sox. Overall, I think the Red Sox would have a better rotation, but it wouldn't be by much. It could be a fun year in the AL Easy next year with the Rays in third having won 93 games.

Cubs Swept While Brewers Stay Alive

Now, it's a little more than a bad century. Isn't it?

Sorry for the slow day yesterday. I didn't feel well, so I just sat on the couch and watched college football, some baseball, and Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Things should be back up and running today.

Well, the Cubs confirmed two of my predictions about them. One, they didn't win the World Series, and two, they lost to the Dodgers in the opening series. Anyway, who would have thought the Brewers would last longer than the Cubs? However, the Brewers won yesterday, but they still face elimination today. The main thing is for them to get another day, another game, one in which Sabathia can pitch. I know his playoff record isn't very good, but I think if he comes back to start Game 5, the Phillies are going to lose (then again, how awesome would a Sabathia-Hamels matchup be?). After several low-scoring games, it appears the matchup will be Suppan vs. Blanton for Game 4, so I would look for some serious fireworks and the starters to be out quickly. Let's wait and see.

As for the other games, it's Garza vs. Danks in the Rays attempt to sweep away the exhausted White Sox. Looking at the matchup, I have to give the edge to the White Sox and Danks. Look for a Game 4.

As for Angels-Red Sox, it's Beckett vs. Saunders. Normally, I'd give the edge to Beckett, but seeing how he'll probably have some rust and pitch limits, I'll go with Saunders and the Angels. Look for another Game 4.

Deja Vu?

Didn't all last season's division series end in sweeps, too?

Offseason Series: Pittsburgh Pirates

The team has plenty of time for this as long as they continue to be this bad.

Continuing their run of futility, the Pirates finished well under .500 again. I guess we really can't expect them to actually contend because they are in full rebuild mode. This season, they were middle of the road offensively, but that is aided by the time Nady and Bay were still in the lineup. As for the pitching, it was terrible as they finished 28th in ERA, but Paul Maholm was a pleasant surprise as he recreated the magic from his rookie season. Other than that, it was another disappointing season in Pittsburgh, and it doesn't look promising for next season either.

Ryan Doumit behind the plate is a very good thing for the Pirates. In 116 games, he hit .318/.357/.501 with 15 HR, 34 2B, and 69 RBI for the Pirates. He seems like he's locked in their behind the plate. Behind him is Ronny Paulino, who struggled after having two solid previous seasons. If the Pirates are in rebuild mode, they could trade Doumit knowing they have an at least decent option in Paulino or possibly Neil Walker. Other than that, the Pirates don't have too many good options in the minors. However, trading Doumit at peak value might solve a few problems.

At first base, Adam LaRoche seems to be there for one more year. They could plausibly non-tender him, but it's hard to deny the 25 HR and 32 2B. He's also a pretty good defensive first baseman. Is he worth $6-7M for the Pirates? Probably not, but the Rangers, A's, Angels, Indians, Royals, Yankees, or Giants may take him off their hands in exchange for a couple prospects. If you're rebuilding, you might as well go for it full bore. Steve Pearce or Neil Walker could be potential replacements in-house.

Freddy Sanchez seems to be the guy at second base yet again. He did okay this season, but his OBP still isn't great, especially if he only hits .270. He's another potential trade guy, but $6.1M is a lot for him, meaning the Pirates would have to eat some of the contract. However, if you want to go into rebuilding mode, then you can probably eat it knowing you'd get one or two decent prospects back. Luis Cruz could probably do as good of a job at second if they did decide to trade Sanchez.

Another LaRoche occupies the hot corner for the Pirates, and it may be hard to imagine seeing him go. Not that he's that irreplaceable, but he's completely lost that "hot prospect" tag. Andy LaRoche hit .152/.227/.232 as a Pirate, and his previous numbers don't suggest he'll get any better. He'll be 26 next year, so it's getting close to "move it or lose it" time for him. Neil Walker might be the next best option here until Pedro Alvarez gets closer to being ready, which really could be the start of 2010.

Shortstop is truly up in the air for the Pirates. It seems they are all but resigned to trade Jack Wilson this offseason, but his $7.25M salary is the main sticking point. Again, the Pirates could eat some of it to get a good prospect in return. Wilson is a decent hitter and plus defender at short. The Rangers, Giants, Royals, or Orioles could be potential suitors. Brian Bixler could be his replacement, but he didn't hit any better than Andy LaRoche.

Outfield is really the only source of optimism on this team. Nate McLouth's breakout season has many teams salivating over trade possibilities. If they could trade him for a top pitching prospect and another decent guy, I might think about trading him, but I'd need something substantial to get that far. Otherwise, I'd keep him and be really happy. Steve Pearce and Brandon Moss seem to be the guys manning the corner spots, but if either LaRoche is traded, Pearce could occupy the spot. Nyger Morgan would take center and McLouth would move to a corner spot. Andrew McCutcheon is another good guy to look for. He could take center, moving McLouth (or if McLouth was traded). Jose Tabata should be along shortly to move someone else.

The rotation could either be really good or really bad next season. Who knows? Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell took huge steps back, and Zach Duke is still really inconsistent. Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens pitched well, but there are reasons to doubt them as well. However, let's look at their best seasons in the majors. Maholm (3.71 ERA, 206 IP), Snell (3.76, 208 IP), Gorzelanny (3.88 ERA, 201.2 IP), Duke (4.47 ERA, 215.1 IP), and Karstens (4.03, 51.1 IP) could make up a pretty darn good rotation, but there's really no reason to believe they could put it together. Yet, they really could. Snell seems like a popular trade candidate, but they'd be selling kind of low on him. Someone might trade for him based on '07, but I doubt it. Maholm could be traded as well, and he'd be selling at a very high point and would bring back quite a bit. Jimmy Barthmeier and Ross Ohlendorf could also be likely candidates to fill spots.

The bullpen is pretty much a mess, but Matt Capps is a really good start at closer. Again, they could potentially trade him to get some good prospects. I guess it really depends on how soon you see them contending. Regardless, John Grabow, Tyler Yates, Craig Hansen, TJ Beam, Romulo Sanchez, and Phil Dumatrait could fill it out. Other possibilities include Sean Burnett, Evan Meek, and Adam Bernero. Either way, it doesn't look real appetizing here. Grabow could easily see himself in another uniform before next season as I can think of about 16 teams in need of a lefty reliever.

As I said earlier, it really depends on how soon you see this team contending. Next season is way too soon, but is 2010 with Alvarez and Tabata? Probably that too. I think the Pirates should look into trading Doumit, Adam LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, McLouth, Maholm, Snell, Grabow, and Capps. That's a lot of players, but I wouldn't trade them unless I got something good back. Don't just trade them to trade them. The Pirates have the money to keep them, but if they're in rebuilding mode, they need to think about turning one good player into two or three. None of these guys, with the exception of McLouth, are franchise guys who'll make a drastic difference for the team, but they'd all be crucial pieces for other teams. Again, if you see contention in the near future, it would be worth keeping the ones affordable for the next few years. Otherwise, trade them and start over. It's worked for the Marlins, right? I have to say, though, that it would be shame to put that team into that beautiful stadium, but they essentially have been for awhile now anyway.

Chad Billingsley Beats Cubs

He should be getting top Billing in Hollywood.

This is a different spin on what happened last night. You'll hear most places talking about how the Cubs lost the game, how the "Curse" was back at it, and about how the Cubs choked. However, I think 6.2 IP with 1 ER and 7 K should be enough to say that Zambrano was just outpitched last night. With or without the errors, Zambrano and the Cubs lose.

Awww (Part 2)

Ooops.

I was reading Buster Olney's blog and saw this:

In just a couple of days, the Cubs and Brewers are on the brink of elimination -- a byproduct of the best-of-five Division Series round. "There is a lot of support among the GMs for a change," said one executive. "They want the first round to be best-of-seven. It's just more equitable. Think about it -- if you lose the first game of a five-game series, then you have to win three of the next four or go home, and after 162 games, that's just not right. One game shouldn't have that much impact in the way Game 1 does in a best-of-five series."

Okay, because having to win four of your next six is that easy. If you won 66.66666666% (2/3 = 4/6) of your games during the season, you would win 108 games, which is really freakin' difficult. You know what, by losing your first game, you put yourself in a hole. I'm sorry, but you have to deal with it. The other team has to deal with the same scenario. It's not impossible to come back. I understand you've worked really hard to get here during the season, but I've never felt that a possible 19 games should decide a season anyway. People always talk about small sample sizes. but when it comes to the playoffs, 19 games (if that many) suddenly represents your entire season. It's a little ridiculous, but I've learned to accept it. The first round of the playoffs is a best of five series, so the GM's need to just accept it. It's life. Just win the first game next time.

Let the Bidding Begin

He's one of the best in baseball even if he's not up for the Cy Young this year.

The San Diego Padres have now said they will entertain offers for Jake Peavy. Jason at IIATMS talked about it the other day for the Yankees. This gives them payroll flexibility, and if they really drop payroll to $55M, they probably can't contend next season. This is almost a concession on their part. Peavy had another great year this year with a 2.85 ERA in 172.2 IP and 166 K. At age 27, he's still very young, and he's under control through at least 2012 (he has an option for '13 for $22M). He'll make $8M next season, $15M the year after, $16M, and $17M in the last season. In other words, he's really affordable for one of the best pitchers in baseball. The $22M option seems a bit steep, but again, he's an ace. You'd probably have to pick it up to get him to sign off on the trade, but honestly, I think he'd take an extra $5M tacked on to his contract to leave San Diego. I'm not sure you'd have to exercise the '13 option (Isn't it weird to think of '13 as 2013 instead of 1913?) to get him to waive his rights. He's an Alabama boy, so I don't think he's that attached to San Diego and a losing team. So who'd be involved?

Yankees
You always have to consider them in these discussions, especially now that they're in need of an upper-tier starter. He'd be as expensive as Burnett (probably cheaper) in terms of salary, but they'll have to give up a lot for him. I see a deal for Gardner/Jackson/Cabrera, Cano, Hughes, and a couple other mid-level minor leaguers. That's prett steep in money and prospects, but Peavy's worth it and the Yankees can withstand it.

Red Sox
Josh Beckett is gone after 2010, maybe 2009 (but $12M isn't too much for Beckett depending on health), and Peavy would be a nice fall-back. It would then give the Red Sox a formidable staff of Peavy, Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and whoever else they wanted (it could be me and they'll still win 100 games). The thing is, the Red Sox aren't desperate for pitching and have plenty in the minors. However, only Buchholz is a front-line type of guy, and he didn't do too well this season. Though I wouldn't give up on him, there's no question I'd rather have Peavy. A deal of Buchholz, Reddick, Diaz, and a couple mid-level guys could get the job done (maybe adding Bowden for Reddick and Diaz could get the job done as well). The Red Sox could withstand the blow it would take to their farm system, and it would have the added bonus of kicking the Yankees in the balls.

Angels
They may need Peavy the least with the young guns they have, but imagine a rotation of Peavy, Lackey, Santana, Saunders, and Weaver. It would kill. The Angels' GM has already talked about them focusing on pitching. Well, here you go. A deal of Weaver (or Adenhart; I say Weaver because he's good but the Angels have other options), Wood (they don't seem to want him anyway), Rodriguez, and mid-level guys could get the job done. With Lackey possibly out after next year, Peavy would be the team ace in 2010.

Braves
The Braves desperately need an ace, and I imagine Wren has already called Towers. The Braves have $45M to spend, and they'll have more flexibility after next year when Hudson's contract is gone. The Braves have the added benefit of the "hometown" connection that might help convince Peavy to waive his no-trade clause. The thing is Wren stated they won't give up their big up-and-comers, but I think he might reconsider for Peavy. My guess is Lillibridge, Schafer (the Braves still have Anderson and Gorkys Hernandez or could include one of those), and Redmond/Hanson/Morton/Rohrbough with mid-level guys would get the job done without damaging the "next crop" guys (especially if Hanson isn't involved) too much (Schafer would hurt, but the Braves are fairly strong in center field).

Brewers
They're flush with prospects, and they'll need an ace after Sabathia and Sheets leave. That'd be a nice rotation with Peavy, Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, and Bush. The thing might be money, but Gagne and Sheets' contract will more than cover it. Could Green, Frederickson, Lawrie, and a couple others get the job done? The interest should be there. Not to mention they could transfer one or two of those prospects for a Weeks or Hardy.

Rangers
Nolan Ryan has promised to change the rotation, and this would be a major change. I imagine they would open the bank a little more for Peavy, and the Rangers definitely have the prospects. I'm guessing Saltalamacchia/Laird/Teagarden, Harrison/Feliz, Andrus, and a couple others could get it done. There's definite need and resources at play here.

Peavy would cost a lot, but he'll be in definite demand. I realize I might be over-estimating the number of the prospects involved, but when you have a lot of competition, you have to pay more. Other teams such as the Mets (prospects), Rays (payroll), Astros (prospects), and Dodgers (same division) have defects that might make me think they won't make serious bids.

Byrnes to Be Traded?

You wonder why he hurt his hamstrings. Honestly, I like the guy, but I wouldn't give up much for him and wouldn't pay the entire salary.

Tim Dierkes mentioned Eric Byrnes and the possibility that he could be traded. It makes sense for the Diamondbacks to keep Tracy at first, Reynolds at third, and Jackson in left. Therefore, Byrnes would be a fourth outfielder as there is no platoon situation with the other outfielders being right-handed.

So ... my question as always is could the Braves trade for him? This season, he only played 56 games due to two bad hamstrings. The two seasons before, he did really well and seemed to deserve his extension. He hit 26 and 21 HR, and he adds stolen bases as well. This season's stats can be thrown out due to his hamstring injury. As for his contract, he is still owed $22M over the next two seasons ($11M each). In other words, the Braves have the money, and Byrnes wouldn't block a Jason Heyward. Also, Byrnes' trade value is pretty low, so it may not take too much to get a trade done. I'm sure the Diamondbacks would prefer the money to keep Dunn, move him to first, and trade Tracy for some pitching (bullpen or decent starter).

However, there are some negatives. It wasn't just one hamstring. It was both of his hamstrings. That's not good, especially given his playing style. At age 32 (33 and 34 the next two seasons), he has essentially passed his prime, and the age doesn't help his chances of staying healthy. $11M is also a lot of money considering that's what the Braves could pay for Ibañez and get the same production (assuming both are healthy), but the more moeny the Diamondback eat, the better the prospect they want. In the end, I just can't see the Braves trying for him knowing there are better (at least as productive) options with better health histories.

Daniels Fired as Rangers' GM

The reason Jon Daniels was castrated.

Well, not really. The Rangers conceded defeat on the John Danks for Brandon McCarthy trade, which everyone knew anyway. The real telling line though is by owner Tom Hicks:

"The comforting thing for me now is we have a new leader, and if Nolan had been there, we never would have done [the Danks deal]. And we will never trade a No. 1 pick, a left-handed pitcher again."

If that isn't a telling line, then I don't know what can be. Jennifer Engel, the writer, goes on to say that Daniels is now GM in name only. I completely agree, and if I'm Jon Daniels, I'm going to get myself out of there. He's worn out his welcome. The odd thing is Danks seems to be the reason behind this. How many other top left-handed prospects can we think of that didn't work out? I realize he took a gamble, but I thought this trade was fairly well-respected when it happened. It wasn't as if the guy lit the world on fire last year. You can go on to talk about the Young and Gonzalez trade, but Hicks didn't talk about that one or even after that one. This seems to be just about Danks. What about the great things he's done recently like getting a killing for Teixeira or signing Bradley when no one else wanted him? Should he be hammered for trading Volquez? They seem to need pitching more than hitting at the moment. If the GM isn't doing his job, then fire him, but don't make him give up his power based on one trade. And if you're going to take away his power, then fire him.

LiveBlog: Red Sox v. Angels

But if the bridge is on fire, I'm jumping.

Not doing it. Look at Shysterball.

LiveBlog: Dodgers v. Cubs

After a great game to start things off, we should be in for another one with Lowe and Dempster. Oh wow, Dennis Eckersley is in the TBS headquarters. Anyway (sorry for the side-note), I'll be here throughout this game and probably the Red Sox-Angels game as well.

Lowe (LAD) vs. Dempster (CHC)

It's hard to say who has the advantage in this one. Dempster has the 2.96 ERA and 187 K's, but Lowe walks fewer hitters and gets more groundballs (3.24 ERA). I have to say I like Lowe in this one. No real reason, and actually, it's really against reason. That's why I'm sticking to it.

Before things begin, how cool would it be to have Cal Ripken Jr., Tony Gwynn (not Jr.), and John Smoltz broadcasting the same game. I can only imagine my mind exploding from the baseball knowledge. Maybe that's why they didn't do it.

Top 1 (LAD 0 - CHC 0)
After a pretty good at-bat, Furcal goes down swinging. Martin then works a walk, but he should have been called on the 2-2 and 3-2 pitch. It doesn't matter as Manny hits into a double-play. I guess that's the give and take with Manny. He hits, but he's slow and hits into double-plays.

Bottom 1 (LAD 0 - CHC 0)
Soriano starts off by ... guess ... striking out. The announcers say that Pinella wants Fukudome in for defense, so why is he hitting second? Continuing his slump, Fukudome hits a grounder to Loney for the second out. Derrek Lee follows with walk, and the Cubs are showing early that Lowe is going to have to throw strikes for them to swing. Then, Aramis grounds out to third to end the inning. From the first inning, it seems as though Lowe is going to have a much more difficult time.

T 2 (LAD 0 - CHC 0)
Ethier starts off the inning with another walk, but even though these are supposed to hurt, it doesn't hurt Dempster. Loney popped out to second. Kemp hit it farther and in the same direction, but it was caught. DeWitt came up and hit a lazy fly ball to end the inning. I guess we're going to have to settle into another low-scoring game. I don't mind, but I know some do.

B 2 (LAD 0 - CHC 2) --> Cubs score 2
Soto grounded out to start the inning. Edmonds followed by still being his effective self when he lined one just over (and off) Furcal's glove into left-center. DeRosa then hits one just inside the right field foul pole to make it 2-0. DeRosa is one of those guys you don't hear about, but he just does his job (I realize he got a lot of All-Star votes, but I think that had to do with him playing in Chicago). The Riot came up and sat back down after looking at strike three. At this point, it seems as though Lowe is a little frustrated with the umpire. He's thrown some good pitches low and away, but they're maybe a little off. He's not getting the call. Anyway, Dempster lined one into left for a hit before Soriano could harmlessly pop/fly out to Furcal in short left.

T 3 (LAD 0 - CHC 2)
In one of the most awkward plays I've seen, Blake hits one foul down the right field line, and Fukudome comes in, slips down the bullpen mound, reaches back, and still makes the catch. Pinella's genius at work. Even weirder, Dempster walked Lowe (making the two pitchers have a 1.000 OBP), and to make things worse, he walked Furcal. He's getting up there in pitches, and it doesn't seem as though either pitcher will get through to the eighth unless they get in a groove. Both don't have their command. As evidence, he gets one up to Martin, who hits it all the way to the fence before Soriano runs it down for out number two. Manny comes up and hits one into the hole. Theriot dives and catches it, but he can't throw out a hustling Manny (geez, that guy always gives it his all, doesn't he?). Ethier works a full count, but he strikes out to end the threat. The Dodgers simply can't do this if they want to win.

B 3 (LAD 0 - CHC 2)
Fukudome grounded out to second. Lee then batted one into left for a hit. Lowe then does what he does best by getting Ramirez to hit into a double-play.

T 4 (LAD 0 - CHC 2)
James Loney flied out to left to start things off. Kemp followed by grounding out to third. DeWitt blooped it into center for a hit. Then, Blake lasered one at the Gold Glover Lee. Usually when you do that, you get out. And ... Blake did. Inning over. I guess they're getting it back.

B 4 (LAD 0 - CHC 2)
Soto lines out to center to begin the inning. The offenses are starting to hit the ball harder. I think we'll see some runs in the next few innings. As soon as I say that, Edmonds strikes out. My faith is restored. DeRosa strokes one into center, and then Theriot hits it through the hole on the right. Dempster then ends the inning by swinging at a pitch outside the other batter's box. It didn't even start over the plate. I guess that's what you get with a pitcher.

T 5 (LAD 4 - CHC 2) --> Dodgers score four
Lowe grounds out to begin the inning. Dempster then walks guy number ... five in Furcal (his second). Martin follows with a fly out to right. Then, walk six happens as Ramirez works a bizillion-pitch walk. Dempster will eclipse 100 pitches this inning, and the bullpen will have to come in next inning. I see that being a bad thing. Walk seven as Ethier (I keep typing in Either) loads the bases. Samardzija and Marshall are up in the bullpen. Uh oh, Dempster leaves one up and Loney jacks it over the center-field wall. I thought Lowe's low number of walks would benefit them, but I didn't think Dempster would walk this many. Next, Kemp lines one in the left-center gap for a double, and they come to get Dempster. Sean Marshall comes in and ends the Cubs' misery for now by striking out DeWitt. Here's the Curse.

B 5 (LAD 4 - CHC 2)
Soriano swings and misses another terrible pitch for out number one. Fukudome then laces one at Blake that leaves laces in Blake's chest, and the ball skips away for a single. Lowe then does what he does best and gets another double play from Lee. Lowe only has 80 pitches, so he should be able to get through seven, and then it's Broxton and Saito.

T 6 (LAD 4 - CHC 2)
Blake hits it fairly hard down the first base line to start off the inning, but Lee gets to it and gets the out. Is it unfair that he's that tall and coordinated? Inexplicably, Marshall then walks Lowe (who now has 2 walks). Jason Marquis is now up in the bullpen. Does anyone think he's really a better option? In response, Marshall strikes out Furcal after falling behind 3-0. Now, Samardzija's back up. That would be better unless his command is still off (6 BB in last 4 1/3 IP). Nevermind. Martin gets a meat pitch and hits it right at Soriano for out number three. The Dodgers have two lefties coming up in Ethier and Loney, so I expect Cotts to get up and replace Marquis.

B 6 (LAD 4 - CHC 2)
Aramis Ramirez stats out the inning with a double. Soto strikes out swinging. This is the worst thing about baseball: the frustration. PUT THE BAT ON THE BALL AND AT LEAST MOVE THE RUNNER OVER. Sorry, but when Edmonds grounded out to second, the game would be 4-3. DeRosa then flies out to right to end the inning. See.

T 7 (LAD 5 - CHC 2) --> Dodgers score 1
Manny takes Marshall Y-A-R-D. That was a hard hit ball. Ethier follows up the majestic blast with one of his own ... to second base and an out. Loney then strikes out. This is kinda weird watching other managers and their use of the bullpen. By the way, Marshall strikes out Kemp to end the inning. Anyway, if this was a Braves game, Cox would have used a righty to face Ramirez, and then Ohman would have pitched his 120th game to get Ethier and Loney. Better or worse I don't know, but I think it's interesting nonetheless. Personally, I like Pinella's thinking better, but I called Cotts based on Cox's thinking not Pinella's.

B 7 (LAD 5 - CHC 2)
Lowe's out, Cory Wade in (2.27 ERA in 71.1 IP). I like this as it saves Lowe for a potential Game 4 start (94 pitches tonight). He could have gotten another inning, but why when you have a good bullpen? While I'm writing that, Theriot grounds out to Loney. Mike Fontenot hits for Marshall and gets a single. Wade then jams Soriano for out number 2. The difference between Furcal and Soriano? Furcal has two walks to Soriano's 0-for-4. Anyway, Fukudome continues to be pretty useless (he did have a nice grab and hit earlier, but still) by striking out on a nasty curveball (can we come up with a new word for nasty that pertains to pitches?) in the dirt. Wade has a great curveball and abused the Cubs with it. On to Broxton and Saito.

T 8 (LAD 6 - CHC 2) --> Dodgers score 1
Samardzija's in after throwing for about 8 innings. DeWitt introduces himself with a triple over Edmonds' head in center. You know how far Edmonds has fallen when ... Scratch that, make it a double and error on Edmonds. I'm not sure how much of an error it was, but it hurts anyway as Blake hits one up the middle for a single and RBI. Jeff Kent in to pinch-hit as the bullpen continues to leak. Kent hits into the usual 4-3-6 double-play. No, that wasn't a misprint. Kent hit it to DeRosa, Blake stopped before being tagged, DeRosa threw it to first, and then Lee threw it to Theriot to tag Blake out sliding into second. Furcal takes a healthy swing, but it falls into Soriano's glove at the track (Churchill Downs).

B 8 (LAD 6 - CHC 2)
Broxton came in. What a shock. He gets Lee to ground out harmlessly to Furcal. Aramis Ramirez flies out to right for the second out. Soto works a walk. Then, Broxton dumbly throws Edmonds a high fastball, and Edmonds hits it way back ... way back and ... into Kemp's glove right at the track. But seriously, what makes Broxton think it was a good idea to throw him a high fastball? He's a high fastball hitter. Oh well, it doesn't hurt this time, but he'll remember that tomorrow. Now, we're on to Saito, but is it the good Saito or the recovering one? I guess we'll find out. Actually, it may be best to just put in Beimel or Park.

T 9 (LAD 7 - CHC 2) --> Dodgers score 1
He's been hitting it hard all night, and this time, Martin gets it all and hits it out. I think the game's over, and they should probably (definitely) not put Saito in. Actually, it may be good to put him in to see what he's got for the rest of the series. I'll let Torre decide. Oh, Marquis came in at the beginning of the inning. That explains the home run. My uncle is probably screaming at/breaking the TV at the moment. Well, this is cute. Maddux is now up in the bullpen. I guess this means that Kershaw could get a start. Manny takes his worst at-bat of the night by striking out on a bad slider low and off the plate. Ethier tries to add to the score, but Edmonds catches it on the track. Loney hits an easy grounder to DeRosa, and Maddux trots in to finish the game.

B 9 (LAD 7 - CHC 2)
DeRosa grounds out to short to start the inning. Theriot rips one off the top of Loney's glove and DeWitt tries to throw it to Maddux for the out, but Theriot beats it out. He then takes second (defensive indifference). Loney catches Daryle Ward's grounder and steps on first. Two down. Is it sad that Maddux has essentially become a mop-up reliever? Soriano is jammed and Loney catches the pop up to end it.

That game wasn't extremely exciting unless you're a Dodgers fan. Lowe recovered from initially not getting some calls, but Dempster didn't and walked 7. Walks will kill you, and they finally caught up with him in the fifth. Then, the Cubs bullpen gave up 3 runs in a little more than 4 IP. Marmol and Wood didn't come in, and other than them, there really aren't any sure bets in the Cubs bullpen, especially when you bring out Marquis. Anyway, the Dodgers showed why they're the hot pick to beat the Cubs. They were ready and showed resillience coming back after going down 2-0. There were a lot of young guys starting for them tonight, but they played much better than that. Loney hit a grand slam, DeWitt hit a key triple, and Martin hit a homer. Great night for the Dodgers. The nice thing for the Cubs is that they have Zambrano and Harden coming up. Too bad the Dodgers have Billingsley, Kuroda, and a 1-0 lead.

LiveBlog: Brewers v. Phillies

I'll be watching the games today, though I don't know how often I'll do it for the rest of the playoffs, so I thought I'd do a live blog. I'll probably do one every half inning or so. Keep checking back. For my series preview check here.

Gallardo (MIL) vs. Hamels (PHI)

You've got to give the edge to Hamels here even though Gallardo had a 1.88 ERA in his other starts. I like Hamels' 3.09 ERA over 33 starts over Gallardo's four. I guess we'll see. Here we go.

Top 1 (MIL 0 - PHI 0)
It's gonna be a long day for the Brewers. Mike Cameron goes down swinging on two consecutive change-ups. Bill Hall pops out to short. Ryan Braun finishes the inning by striking out. This is the Brewers offense for you, almost 3TO. But, with the horrid way they swung at Hamels' changeup, they may not have a chance. The only True Outcome may be a shutout.

Bottom 1 (MIL 0 - PHI 0)
Good start for Gallardo, but there's a little cause for concern as Rollins and Utley hit lasers. However, Weeks made a great play on Rollins' rod. Gallardo then struck out Werth. Utley roped one at Fielder, but following his name, he fielded it well by snatching it out of the air. A thought, Smoltz (I love the fact he's a broadcaster for these) mentions that Braun made 0 errors this season. While better than the Michael Myers job he did at third, defensive ability does not = 0 errors.

Top 2 (MIL 0 - PHI 0)
Another easy inning for Hamels. He strikes out Fielder to begin the inning. Then, Hardy hits a lazy (not hearty) fly ball to center. Hart hits one up the middle, but Utely makes a nice play to throw him out. As good as Utley is as a hitter, he's really underrated defensively. At this rate, this game's going to be over by 5. Good, that'll give me time to make some french toast.

Bottom 2 (MIL 0 - PHI 0)
Leadoff walks will kill you. Luckily for Gallardo, so does swinging at the first pitch right after the opposing pitcher walks the leadoff guy right in front of you. Ryan Howard takes a walk to start things off, but Burell swings at the next pitch and hits an easy grounder up the middle. Hardy steps on second and throws to first for an easy double play. Victorino then draws a walk, but Feliz ends the inning on a well-hit grounder right at the shortstop. Gallardo gets out of the inning, but there are definite signs of rust. Too many balls up. Too many out of the zone.

T 3 (MIL 0 - PHI 0)
Things get a little more troublesome for Hamels as Gallardo gets close to taking him yard. Regardless, Weeks strikes out to start the inning. Kendall follows by being Kendall and hitting a dinky flyball to center. Gallardo finished the inning by smashing a hanging changeup to deep left. Doesn't matter as the wind is blowing in. By the way, it is raining (not that hard), and when the grounds crew chief said, "She could start dumping", I immediately thought of the "Your roses really smell like poo-ooo-oo" song. Does that make me a bad person?

B 3 (MIL 0 - PHI 3) --> Phils score 3
Don't let the eighth guy in the order on, especially when your defense sucks. Ruiz hits one right back up the middle. Hamels, orthodoxically (?), bunts him over, but Hall bobbles the grounder (which could have gotten him the out at second) and throws to first where Weeks drops the ball. There is only one error on the play officially, but this was just ugly. Luckily for the Brewers, the Phillies continue to screw themselves over. Rollins swings at the first pitch and flies out to shallow left, and Werth follows up by striking out (the second time ... on another high fastball ... hello scouting report). Then, Utley doubles (well, Cameron makes a terrible defensive break and almost catches it) bringing in two runs. Another fastball slightly elevated. In typical fashion, the Brewers then walk Howard intentionally. Burrell follows with a great at-bat drawing a walk by somehow letting go of a nasty curve. Bases loaded for Victorino. Gallardo then walks Victorino, bring in Utley. He's really losing it, and his body language is screaming, "Get me out of here!" Yet, Feliz flies out to center on the second pitch. You know, he's just watched three walks in a row. TAKE A FEW PITCHES!!! Regardless, let's see how Hamels reacts after sitting in the dugout for a while. Final thought, errors kill you.

T 4 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Cameron starts off the inning by grounding out weakly to second. Hall follows by bouncing out to Howard. Hamels then jams Braun, who flies out to left. Nevermind about the sitting in the dugout causing rest thing. Hamels just told the Brewers the game's over. You know, he's only thrown his big curveball a couple times, and he's still dominating them with his fastball-curveball combo. Lesson here kids is that you don't need a curveball until high school. Change-ups are cool, too.

B 4 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Ruiz starts out by inexplicably bunting. He pops it up right to Gallardo. What are the Phillies thinking? Doesn't Ruiz know he's slow? Hamels follows up, orthodoxically (?), by striking out. Rollins then rips one into right for a single. Werth improves on his first two at-bats by ... popping it into foul territory for Prince Fielder. Anyway, it just feels like the Phillies are in command. Even though it's Citizen's Bank Park, there seems to be the feeling that this game is actually 7-0.

T 5 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Fielder starts off by striking out. Go figure on a change-up. Hardy grounds out to short. Then on 0-2 to Hart, Hamels throws a fastball right down the middle (they wanted it up around the shoulders). You know it's Hamels' day when he only singled to right. It ends the no-no, but Hamels quickly dispatches Weeks on a nasty front-door change.

B 5 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Lefty Mitch Stetter comes in for Gallardo. He gets an easy ground out from Utley. He then strikes out Howard on a big curveball/slurve. This is why you have a side-arm lefty against the Phillies. Sveum just came in to make a double-switch. Carlos Villanueva comes in and gets Burrell to line out to left. Craig Counsell is now in at second (Weeks was 0 for 2 with 2 K's).

T 6 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
The Brewers are finally starting to be more patient. After the previous inning's hitter forced some deep counts, Kendall goes 3-2 before striking out. Counsell then bloops one into center, making Sveum look smart. Hamels then walks Cameron, and it looks like the stretch is a little uncomfortable for him. Scratch that. Hamels strikes out Hall, and then he gets Braun to pop out to short on one pitch. Nothing fazes Hamels.

B 6 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Victorino flies to out right center to start things off. Feliz hits the ball like 10 feet to left, but it has the same result. Ruiz then pitifully gorunds out to third, but Hall did have a little trouble with it. Still, a quiet inning. Do you think they're just trying to get out so the game ends quicker?

T 7 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Hamels needs 5 pitches. Howard makes a nice stab on Fielder's hard grounder. Feliz dives to stops Hardee's (sorry). Hart flies out to center. 5 pitches or 3U, 5-3, F8. Apparently, the Brewers are trying to end the game quickly as well. They know the game's over.

B 7 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Villanueva is matching Hamels. He strikes out Hamels on a curve. He gets Rollins on a curve. Just to switch things around, he blows a fastball past an unexpecting Werth (3 K's on the day for Werth). You know, the Phillies really should score like three more to save Hamels a little. I know he won't want to come out, but with a few more runs, he could save himself a little. He's up to 90 pitches.

T 8 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Eric Bruntlett comes in for Pat Burrell, and the Phillies obviously believe they have the game won. First pitch, Tony Gwynn Jr. tries to bunt and is a good one, but Utley gets to it and glove-tosses it to Howard for the out. Kendall strikes out on another nasty change-up. Counsell ends the inning on a grounder to third. Three more outs. Will we see Lidge?

B 8 (MIL 0 - PHI 3)
Manny Parra in to pitch. He gets Utley to cue one to second, but he walks Howard. If you're the lefty reliever, you need to get him out, or at least try to. Bruntlett hits one up the middle. Hardy dives but can only stop it, and all men are safe. Victorino grounds to Weeks, but Victorino beats the throw to first, meaning no double play. With a man on first and third, Sveum goes to get Parra and brings in Mota to face Feliz. Why would you bring in a fastball guy to face a dead fastball hitter? I guess we'll see. I'm wrong. Mota jams Feliz, and Counsell makes a great over-the-shoulder grab to end the inning. Lidge is up in the bullpen, so he should be coming in to finish the game.

T 9 (MIL 1 - PHI 3)
Things are getting scary. Lidge struck out Cameron. But Durham, pinch-hitting for Hall, hits a single. Braun follows with a double, and an error by Utley brings Durham home. Fielder, in a long, tough at-bat, strikes out. In another long at-bat, Hardy walks. Lidge needs to get a quick out. Lidge throws one in the dirt, and the runners move over. 32 pitches for Lidge. Lidge blows one past Hart to end it.

What a game! Hamels was absolutely amazing going 8 while striking 9 and walking one. His change-up was simply amazing. I wonder if he'll use his curveball more if he has to pitch another game in the series because he didn't throw it much today. Gallardo had the stuff, but his command was really off. In the end, you really have to hand it to the Brewers for fighting back in the ninth against Lidge, but as he has all season, Lidge finished it off. Other than the bottom of the third, the game was even, but you just can't give good teams extra outs, especially when they just hand it to you. Two bad defensive plays do the Brewers in. Sabathia tomorrow, so the teams will probably go to Milwaukee tied up. Another thing, will Lidge's 35 pitches affect his availability for tomorrow. My guess is no. It is the playoffs after all, and maybe it was just some rust from not pitching since Saturday.

Phillies 1-0

Offseason Series: San Diego Padres

If she plays, I'll watch. Otherwise, I'll let the nice people of San Diego suffer.

Well, the Padres can be tabbed as another one of those teams we loved and were disappointed in. Jake Peavy was Jake Peavy (although his record didn't show it). Greg Maddux gave what he had. But, Chris Young wasn't so good, Randy Wolf was maybe solid, and no one else stepped up in the rotation. In the bullpen, things weren't great either, and the great Trevor Hoffman almost had a 4 ERA. As for the offense, it was pretty abominable other than Brian Giles, Jody Gerut, Adrian Gonzalez, and maybe Kevin Kouzmanoff. All together, it was a 63-99 team.

For the backstop, Josh Bard was the guy, but Dierkes thinks he'll be non-tendered. That leaves Nick Hundley, who is 25 but didn't give much production. There's nothing in the minors, so it appears that Hundley will be the guy. Considering the Padres don't want to go over $50M next season, I wouldn't expect them to go out into free-agency for someone, but Paul Lo Duca and Greg Zaun might make sense. They would be a waste of money though.

At first, the Padres have one of the most underrated players in the game in Adrian Gonzalez. He's simply amazing, and he should be there for a long time (he's very reasonably signed through 2011). However, if the Padres wanted to rebuild, he'd bring back so much it would be ridiculous. Why isn't this quite so ludicrous? Kyle Banks had a monster year in AA, and if the Pads are out of it come July, they could trade Gonzalez and bring up Banks. Then again, can Banks play right or left?

Second base is pretty certain in that Matt Antonelli is going to get his shot, but he gave no real confidence for that with a poor showing in AAA and the majors. He's still a hot prospect, but maybe only simmering now. There's not much else in the system, so unless they dip into free-agency (I don't see it), it's Antonelli's job.

Third base is like first base for the Padres. Kouzmanoff gets some bad press, but he's actually not bad at all (unless you really want to count walks; 23 by the way). He even made strides on defense by committing half as many errors as last season. Chase Headley could be another option, but he'll likely start in left. Peter Cifrone could be another option if the Padres go the trade route. I doubt it.

Khalil Greene seems entrenched at shortstop, mainly because he's an excellent defensive shortstop and the organization's stubborn belief that he's a good hitter. He's not, but he's decent. Brett Dowdy could be an in-house option, but they'll stick with Greene.

The outfield could be the strength for the Padres. Headley hit pretty well in his time in the majors, and he should get better next season (breakout guy?). Jody Gerut revived his career, but can you really expect him to do the same next year? I don't. In right, Giles' option will probably be picked up, and he's always a solid but not spectacular guy. He gives you a good BA, OBP, and defense. What else do you really want? Paul McAnulty might continue to tease, but Will Venable could be a darkhorse guy and could push Gerut out of town. Drew Macias could be another option, but they'll probably have to wait another year on him.

The rotation is a bit iffy for next season. Jake Peavy and Chris Young will be the 1 and 2. After that, it's up in the air. Cha Seung Baek, Wade LeBlanc, and Josh Banks could fill in the rest of the rotation, but none were great. Chad Reineke is another option. Could Matthew Buschmann be an option after a great year in AA? My guess is they'll scorunge around for a Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, or Brad Penny (like the Randy Wolf signing) that may not take too much to sign. It could be another long year for the Pads next season if they don't improve here.

As for the bullpen, Mike Adams, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, and Justin Hampson seem locked in, and that's not bad at all. Hoffman will probably come back as well, and he could be decent and could be Todd Jones. We might not know, but he did have a 9.13 K/9, which isn't bad at all either. Dirk Hayhurst and Joe Thatcher are other good in-house options. If they want free-agents, they could get an Al Reyes or Rudy Seanez, but they'd probably be best by sticking to what they have considering payroll limitations.

After looking through this team, it seems next year will follow right along with this one. The rotation that was a major strength is now a gaping hole. The bullpen still looks fairly good though. As for the offense, it probably won't improve much if at all. Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Headley, and Giles might make up a decent middle of the order, but there doesn't seem to be too much help from the other spots. Especially with trying to keep a payroll around $50M, the Padres don't have much flexibility with big salaries due to Peavy, Greene, Giles, and Hoffman.