ALDS: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Someone explain to me why this picture came up when I searched for "Rays vs. White Sox".

White Sox (89-74) vs. Rays (97-65)

White Sox: 12th in ERA, 9th in Starter's ERA, 12th in Bullpen ERA, 6th in Runs Scored
Rays: 3rd in ERA, 6th in Starter's ERA, 5th in Bullpen ERA, 13th in Runs Scored

So ... the Rays are better pitchers, and the White Sox are better hitters. Why can't any of these matchups have a clear winner? The Rays did have the advantage of playing against better competition, but in a five-game series, that really doesn't matter much, does it?

Why the White Sox win:
They just hammer the home runs. They led the majors in home runs, and the Rays weren't exactly stingy in giving up homers (11th most allowed). Then, when they've gotten the lead, they absolutely ride Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, and Bobby Jenks through the rest of the game. They also win when the Rays realize they have never been here before and shrink away from the spotlight. Experience counts, and the White Sox have much more than the Rays. Then again, they're also much older. Could that work against them?

Why the Rays win:
Crawford comes back and plays well, Longoria continues to shock the world (because I bet most people still haven't heard of him), and Peña helps carry the team. They continue to win because Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson/Sonnanstine is better than Vazquez, Buerhle, Floyd, and Danks. Then, Howell, Price, Wheeler and Balfour dominate the late innings. They then get some help from the White Sox being really tired from all the hard work and emotion poured into the last three games, all of which had playoff implications.

Offense: White Sox
Defense: Tampa Bay
Game 1: Kazmir vs. Buerhle --> Rays
Game 2: Shields vs. Floyd --> Rays
Game 3: Garza vs. Danks --> Even
Game 4: Jackson vs. Vazquez --> Even
Game 5: Kazmir vs. Floyd --> Rays
Bullpen: Tampa Bay
Closers: Wheeler vs. Jenks --> White Sox

Of all the series, I feel most confident in declaring the Rays the winners in 3. Of course, that means the White Sox win in four, but I don't see the White Sox winning. The Rays just have a better staff all the way through, and their offense should be able (and has been able) to produce enough to win. It'll be difficult to get past the Angels in the ALCS, but I don't think the White Sox derail the Cinderella story just yet. Rays in 3.

Quick Ruminations

Well not by Johnny, but the blonde hair and glasses are accurate.

Okay, I have this weird thing about nice numbers, and this is the 99th post. Once the White Sox game is over, I'll make the next ALDS post. Therefore, this whole post is due to my vanity/OCD. I wanted exactly 100 posts for this month. I don't know how many months I'll really be able to get to 100 posts. It means having a bit more than 3 posts a day, which doesn't seem like much and I am completely befuddled by Shysterball and how many he posts, but you get tired every once in awhile. Anyway, my meaning was not to make this a rant/apology/death notice.

Rumination One: Would it be better for baseball if players chose teams based on winning instead of money? If they choose by money, the teams with the most money get the best players. If they choose winning, then all the good teams would continually get all the best players. If the best teams (ie. the Rays) don't have enough money and the best teams thereby default to thebig-market team, does anything change?

Rumination Two: Shouldn't we celebrate award-winners instead of debating whether or not they deserve it when they clearly do?

Rumination Three: Isn't "rumination" a much better word than "rambling" or "thought"?

Rumination Four: Does anyone else think Hank's craziness is actually part of the plan in New York? Bear with me here. You get him to say nutty things to make the Yankees organization the "crazy guy you don't want to mess with because he might just do anything". That way, when he makes outrageous claims or demands or wishes, you're not quite sure if he's telling the truth or just baiting everyone else. Then, Hal sits back in the office (because he's obviously the saner/more intelligent one. I mean, who would play along with this completely ridiculous scenario?) and makes most of the decisions, which really means just letting Cashman work for better or worse. Like with Santana, Hank yells out loud how much he wants Santana, and because everyone knows the Yankees had the prospects and the money, they have to take that seriously. Meanwhile, Hal and Brian just laugh and laugh and laugh. Granted, they could have used him this season, but that doesn't mean they made the wrong decision ... yet.

Rumination Five: Are you still reading this? I'm impressed and oddly happy. Thank you. You have no idea how much I appreciate it.

Rumination Six: Who else thinks Billy Beane is just a big tease? I know he's a great talent evaluator and the A's have been good, but name me one team that we really thought was World Series talented. He had a pretty good team that could have had a rotation of Harden, Haren, and Blanton, but he chose otherwise. Now, he sits around and hopes for the prospects to work out. I guess we'll have to wait and see ... again.

Rumination Seven: Just because there's an orthodox way of doing things, does that make them the best way to do them? I love Joe Maddon for his thinking and ability to do what he thinks is best, but then again, when no one expects you to do anything, you can try anything can't you?

ALDS: Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

I've been waiting for one of these.

Red Sox (95-67) vs. Angels (100-62)

Red Sox: 9th in ERA, 8th in Starter's ERA, 11th in Bullpen ERA, 3rd in Runs Scored
Angels: 8th in ERA, 10th in Starter's ERA, 6th in Bullpen ERA, 15th in Runs Scored

In the most anticipated match-up of the playoffs, the Red Sox seem to have a slight edge due to their offense, while the two teams match up pretty evenly pitching-wise. A lot of people will take a look at the records and say the Angels are the favorite, but let's see if they are really correct.

Why the Red Sox win:
Big Papi is back to normal, Pedroia continues his MVP quest, Youkilis shows everyone how good he really is, and Bay proves to be just as good as Manny. Oh yeah, Josh Beckett needs to be healthy as well. The Angels don't have a great offense, and it certainly isn't better than Boston's. However, if Beckett is not healthy, that puts Boston in some bad matchups if Paul Byrd has to walk out to face Santana/Saunders/Weaver, but if he is, then Boston has at least evened things out. Oh, and Papelbon shows why he's better than K-Rod.

Why the Angels win:
Mark Teixeira becomes the man everyone thought he'd be and bashes the team through the playoffs. This offense isn't great, but it should be solid enough to back up a stellar staff. Lackey, Santana, Saunders, and Weaver are better than Lester, Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Byrd/Wakefield, and if they show it, Boston could be headed home early. You also really have to like shut-down bullpens which Arrendondo, Shields, and K-Rod give the Angels, a touch better than Masterson, Okajima, and Papelbon.

Offense: Boston
Defense: Even
Game 1: Lester vs. Lackey --> Even
Game 2: Matsuzaka vs. Santana --> Even
Game 3: Beckett vs. Saunders --> Boston (only if Beckett is healthy)
Game 4: Byrd vs. Weaver --> Angels
Game 5: Lester vs. Lackey --> Even
Bullpen: Angels
Closers: Rodriguez vs. Papelbon --> Even

These are clearly the top 2 teams in the AL (we can argue the Rays should be involved, but I'm not sure ... yet). Pitching will play a big role in this series with some marquee matchups. Lackey --> Weaver is better than Lester --> Byrd. It's a tough call between two evenly matched teams, but I say Angels in four.

Lee and Lidge Win Comeback Player of the Year Awards

Anyone else find this ironic in so many ways?

Any questions?

Cashman to Stay on as GM

I'm not so sure anymore.

Brian Cashman: (n.) see masochist, glutton for punishment, and crusin' for a bruisin'

Offseason Series: Seattle Mariners

Can they go back those days?

Like the Nationals, this season was a disaster for the Seattle Mariners as they ended the season 61-101. After trading key, young players for Erik Bedard, Bedard only pitched in 15 games. Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva had extremely disappointing seasons. Kenji Johjima and Richie Sexson were just terrible. Coming into the season, there was reason for optimism, but it became apparent very soon that this was not to be their season. Will next year be?

Catcher is one of the positions that the Mariners will have to make a decision. Will they go with Johjima, Jeff Clement, or Jamie Burke? After making the bad decision to extend Johjima, it seems as though the Mariners are stuck with him behind the plate. Yet, that allows for Clement to move to first or to simply be the DH, but his line was hardly better than Johjima's. There are no real options in the minors, but they should have enough options as it is now. They just have to decide which one.

First base is a bit of a mystery. Sexson won't be back, but other than that, nothing is certain. Bryan LaHair is the current option, but Johan Limonta and Thomas Hubbard could be other in-house options. The thing is they were in AA, so they may not be ready next season. If the Mariners choose to rebuild, they'll give one of the three the chance, but if they choose to contend, Tony Clark and Jason Giambi make some sense.

Jose Lopez is the second baseman, and that's a fairly good thing for the Mariners. His .297/.322/.443 line was pretty good (although you might like to see more walks), and he's pretty entrenched in that spot. If they chose to trade him for whatever reason (he might actually be able to bring back quite a bit), Tug Huglett or Luis Valbuena could be handed the reins. I don't see it, but it could happen.

Yuniesky Betancourt seems to be the shortstop for better or worse next season. He's terrible defensively, but he offers some value offensively. As for minor leaguers, Kevin Howard could be a viable option, but I wouldn't expect it. Other than that, the cupboard is pretty bear for next season.

Adrian Beltre is another interesting situation for the Mariners. He's solid offensively and a Gold Glover defensively, but he's also the biggest trade bait the Mariners have. There would be plenty of teams lining up for him this offseason if he goes on the block. Matt Tuiasosopo would be the heir-apparent, but he did struggle in his brief time in the majors. If they rebuild, Tuiasosopo will be the guy, but if they decide to contend, Beltre is the guy.

The outfield could be the in flux for next season. Raul Ibañez is probably headed for greener pastures, and I wouldn't expect him back, although he'd be an excellent option should the Mariners try to build a winning team for next season. Ichiro seems hated, and it might be safest to trade him this offseason. He'd bring back a lot, and he would clear some cap space. Then, they could sign Kotsay to play center. Again, I don't see it, but it might not be the worst idea. In right, it seems as though Wladimir Balentien will be the guy, but he did worse than anyone. I'm not sure he's the guy they really want out there. Jeremy Reed, Charlton Jimerson, and Michael Saunders could be other options, but those really seem like worst-case scenario guys. If they choose to go to the market, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Raul Ibañez are definitely within their payroll possibilities and would add the power bat they need.

The starting rotation is one source of promise for this organization. Bedard's shoulder injury doesn't seem to be too serious, but the Mariners may choose to say good-bye (I wouldn't blame them). I still say they should keep him in the off-chance they can contend. Putting him between Felix Hernandez and Brandon Morrow would be the beginning of a pretty good rotation. Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, and Miguel Batista could then duke it out for the final spots. Ryan Feierabend and Travis Chick could be in-house candidates, but Feierabend struggled in his 8 MLB starts and Chick only had 5 AAA starts. As for free-agents, the Mariners could use the Bedard and Ibañez money to charge after a guy like Sheets or Lowe. Other starters such as Ryan Dempster and Jon Garland could also make some sense.

The bullpen also doesn't look too bad next season. JJ Putz will still be there. Sean Green, Roy Corcoran, Cesar Jimenez, and Ryan Rowland-Smith give them a good base. Should they choose to go for it, Arthur Rhodes, Juan Cruz, and Joe Beimel could be options considering those guys have primarily played on the West Coast. Shawn Kelley could be a dark-horse guy, but he only pitched in AA this past season.

So, can the Mariners contend next season? Yes, but whether or not they should try is another story. The rotation and bullpen look solid for next season, but the offense needs major work. They need a 1B, LF, and RF, and to get those, they would have to pay a lot of money for them. They could spring up in the Teixeira conversation, and I wouldn't bat an eye. However, I think it would be a bad investment considering how much the Mariners still need. I think they should start over. Trading Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, and Putz could fill some holes on the team with some impact prospects, but it might guarantee another losing season and some bad attendance numbers. However, those new prospects could team with a strong core of Hernandez and Morrow.

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

It's gonna happen again. Get your hankies ready this time.

Dodgers (84-78) vs. Cubs (97-64)

Dodgers: 2nd in ERA, 4th in Starter's ERA, 3rd in Bullpen ERA, 24th in Runs Scored
Cubs: 5th in ERA, 2nd in Starter's ERA, 16th in Bullpen ERA, 2nd in Runs Scored

The Dodgers seem to have the edge in pitching, but the Cubs have a definite advantage on offense. Chicago will be the heavy favorite, and in their 100th attempt for a World Series victory after their last one, this is their first step.

Why the Cubs win:
Hitting, hitting, hitting. The Cubs mash, simply put. They're 2nd in RS, 5th in BA, 2nd in OBP, and 5th in SLG while the Dodgers are 24th, 14th, 14th, and 24th, respectively. The Cubs are the best offensive team in the playoffs, and if it shows up, they'll be hard to stop. If Harden's healthy, the Cubs have a stronger rotation than the Dodgers with Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden vs. Billingsley, Lowe, and Kuroda. The Cubs also have the most fearsome "Back Three" in the bullpen with Samardzija, Marmol, and Wood, and as long as Samardzija regains his command (6 BB in last 4 2/3 IP), the Cubs will be hard to beat.

Why the Dodgers win:
Billingsley beats Zambrano/Dempster and makes a name for himself while winning two games. Manny Ramirez continues to state his case as to why he's the best hitter in baseball, and Ethier continues to be the best guy no one knows about. Even though the Dodgers lost Kuo for the first round, they still have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and because the Cubs lack left-handed power bats, Kuo's presence may not mean as much, especially considering how well Beimel has done. With scoring possibly at a premium, the Dodgers pitching staff seems more reliable.

Offense: Cubs
Defense: Even
Game 1: Lowe vs. Dempster --> Even
Game 2: Billingsley vs. Zambrano --> Even
Game 3: Kuroda vs. Harden --> Cubs
Game 4: Maddux vs. Lilly --> Even
Game 5: Lowe vs. Dempster --> Dodgers
Bullpen: Dodgers
Closers: Saito vs. Wood --> slight edge to Wood given he's been healthier recently

Billingsley could throw this off a bit by coming back to pitch Game 5. I'm not sure the Cubs really want to bring Zambrano back on short rest, so I think Lilly will get a start. That would give the Dodgers an edge in the Lowe/Lilly matchup that would result for Game 4, and the Dodgers would then have an advantage in the Billingsley/Dempster matchup. Based on my gut feeling (which is really all you can use in predictions), I think the Dodgers use this method and take the Cubs down in 5. Then, the Dodgers go on to beat the Phillies to get to the World Series. It's a stretch, but I'm sticking with it.

Question Mark of the Day

Maybe it isn't all about the money for this guy?

Kyle Lohse just signed a 4-year, $41M contract to stay with the Cardinals. Why is that surprising? First, he was 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 200 IP for the Cardinals this past offseason. Second, his agent is Scott Boras. Somehow, I think he would have commanded a larger salary on the open-market, but I guess Lohse might be the one guy to say no to Boras. Good for him if he did, but he probably passed up about $8M by sticking with the Cardinals. For the Cardinals, this is a pretty good deal. Lohse will be 30 next season, so he's not too old. He'll fit right in with Wainwright and Lowe (did I say that? Who else thinks Dave Duncan will push for this guy?). If Carpenter is somehow healthy (which doctors believe he'll be ready by Spring Training), then that would be a really good rotation.

NLDS: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I think he could take her.

Brewers (90-72) vs. Phillies (92-70)

Brewers: 4th in ERA, 4th in Starter's ERA, 9th in Bullpen ERA, 17th in Runs Scored
Phillies: 6th in ERA, 13th in Starter's ERA, 2nd in Bullpen ERA, 9th in Runs Scored

By looking at the above numbers, it doesn't seem as though there's a clear winner. Philadelphia looks to be the better offense and has a better bullpen, but Milwaukee somehow has a better rotation.

Why the Phillies win:
Ben Sheets is unlikely to be able to pitch in the series due to a sore elbow, so that takes away the big 1-2 punch. Now, they're left with Suppan (probably for Game 1), Sabathia for Game 2, and Dave Bush for Game 3. They could also throw in Manny Parra, but not having Sheets really takes the fight out of the Brewers. The bullpen for the Brewers has also been shaky, but it has the talent to keep them alive. Yet, the Phillies have a lights-out bullpen anchored by Brad Lidge. The Phillies also win if they can keep hitting the way they did in September (5th in the majors) and if the Brewers keep hitting the way they were (29th). The Brewers' offense is just too hit and miss, but ...

Why the Brewers win:
If they hit home runs, they can win, and playing in Citizen's Bank Park is a wonderful opportunity for that. Too bad the Phillies hit homers, too. However, the Brewers have the most dominant pitcher in baseball, and if he can pitch two games (2 and 5), that's two wins for the Brewers right there (if he's pitching in Game 5 and they win, then they win the series). Luckily, the Phillies don't really have a great 1-2 punch either as Brett Myers really struggled in September (5.24 ERA).

Offense: Even
Defense: Philadelphia by a smidge.
Game 1 (Projected) Starters: Hamels vs. Suppan (Gallardo?) --> Phillies
Game 2 Starters: Myers vs. Sabathia --> Brewers
Game 3 Starters: Moyer vs. Bush --> Phillies
Game 4 Starters: Blanton vs. Parra --> Even
Game 5 Starters: Hamels vs. Sabathia --> Brewers
Bullpen: Philadelphia
Closers: Lidge vs. Torres --> Adv. Philadelphia

I'm a little iffy on the Brewer's rotation other than that Sabathia will pitch Game 2, but regardless, Philadelphia generally has the upper hand. The big question is whether Hamels will come back on three day's rest to take out the Brewers in Game 4. I think he has to, but I'm not sure the Phillies will push him out there. If the Phillies are up 2-1 (even more so 1-2), Hamels really should start Game 4 to keep Sabathia from pitching again. If this series goes 5, the Brewers win, but somehow, I think the Phillies knock 'em out in 4.

Man Up

Yes you will. Yes you will.

I have to say I'm not really sure that CC Sabathia deserves the Cy Young for pitching one half in the NL, but after manning up for the past week to pitch twice on three-day's rest, he has impressed the heck out of me. You know a guy's a serious competitor when he puts his team on his back and carries them. Granted, with his size, ... I shouldn't say that. That's mean. Anyway, he really stepped up in a big way yesterday to help his team win the Brewers. In all honesty, I'm not sure why I'm gushing so much about the guy, but I'm not sure how many other guys carried their teams as much this season. Albert Pujols? Carlos Quentin? Justin Morneau? Dustin Pedroia? Those are just maybes.

Does Sabathia prove that four-man rotations are possible, or is he just the exception? Can he really handle all the workload, or will he break down next season? Interesting questions started by a man refusing to let his new team down. Well done CC.

Offseason Series: Washington Nationals

It's pretty, but the baseball played inside of it wasn't.

What can you say about the team that finished last? The Washington Nationals were a league worst 59-102. At least, they get to select Stephen Strasburg first overall. That is if they are willing to spend the money they were unwilling to spend this season on Aaron Crow. Nothing went right for the Nationals. They were 24th in baseball in ERA at 4.65, and they were 28th in runs scored with 641. Ryan Zimmerman spent two months on the DL, Nick Johnson only played 38 games, Austin Kearns disappointed ... again, Paul Lo Duca wasn't any good, and Chad Cordero only pitched in 6 games. The few bright spots were Christian Guzman and John Lannan. As of today, they are probably just relieved to be done. On to next year ...

According to Tim Dierkes, Jesus Flores and Wil Nieves are under contract for next season, and with a combined salary of about $800,000, it's a pretty good value. Flores' .256/.296/.402 line doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence, but he's only 23. He should continue to improve and join an already talented class of NL catchers. There aren't any reinforcements in AAA, but Javi Herrera and Ivan Devnani are decent catchers in AA. They might be decent backups if Nieves can't do it. All together, this is a "bright" spot for the organization.

Unfortunately, the Nationals are still on the hook for Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young for a solid $10M for next season. If Johnson was healthy, he'd be worth it, but I think that ship has sailed. Larry Broadway is 29 and really isn't much of an internal option, and Bill Rhinehart doesn't look any better in AA. They need to go for a free-agent (Tony Clark?), but that would leave them with an even bigger logjam than they already have. Young and Johnson have little to no trade value.

At second, Ronnie Belliard will probably be the starting second baseman, and his .287/.382/.473 line seems to give him the edge. Emilio Bonifacio, however, is the sleeper and will challenge for playing time, but his .250/.308/.349 line isn't awe-inspiring. He is 23, so he still has some potential. He did steal 7 bases in 48 games, but otherwise, there isn't much. However, he is regarded fairly highly, but I wouldn't expect much next season. There really isn't much down on the farm. Seth Bynum might be the best, but he's 28 and at AA.

Ryan Zimmerman will still man third, and if he stays healthy, he should be just fine. He's a definite bounce-back candidate. Again, not much down on the farm, but they don't need it here.

Christian Guzman will be at shortstop next season, and if you believe in his performance this season, they should be just fine here. However, he's been a bit enigmatic, and he no longer steals bases. He just signed an extension, and for some reason, I see a Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young type mistake there. Ian Desmond may be the best option, but he's only at AA and had a .250 BA. I wouldn't count on him too much, but he did have some pop (12 HR in 93 games).

The outfield has more promise for the Nationals. Lastings Milledge did a pretty good job this year, and at 23, he's just gaining more experience, which should help him improve next season. Elijah Dukes had very good numbers for a half-season's worth of games, and if he can stay healthy, durable, and out of trouble, he could fit in very nicely behind Zimmerman. Kearns and Willy Mo Peña could still man right, but neither have really shown that they can be dependable everyday players. Marvin Lowrance had a nice season, but like some others, he was in AA this past season. I don't see too many fits in free-agency, but if the supposed rumors are true about Manny, Manny would be a huge addition to the team. However, let's be real. The Nationals need a lot more than Manny. It would just be a waste of money.

As for the starting rotation, things could be worse, could be better. John Lannan achored the staff, and he should improve next season. He's still not a legitimate ace, but right now, the Nationals will take a legitimate major-league pitcher. Jason Bergmann and Tim Redding help add some bulk to the rotation, but they're more 4 and 5 instead of 2 and 3. Cole Balester, Tyler Clippard, and Mike O'Connor will fight to fill out the remaining spots in the rotation. Jordan Zimmerman is a sleeper pick for the rotation, but I imagine the 22 year old will start out in AAA and be up at some point next season. If the Nationals really want to turn things around, this is where they need to invest. Crow would have been a nice investment, but due to financials, that didn't happen. They should use their first pick on Strasburg, but the Crow situation indicates they may skip him. There are plenty of solid major-league starters in free-agency, but I don't know if they'll make the big play. I definitely don't see CC, Sheets, Burnett, or Lowe going there, but I could see Odalis Perez re-signing, Mike Hampton, or a Jason Jennings/Bartolo Colon investment. Those would be upgrades, but they likely won't make the difference.

In the bullpen, everything is up for grabs. Saul Rivera, Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, Jesus Colome, and Garrett Mock are most likely going to make the team. Brian Sanchez had an excellent year in AAA with 45 K in 33 IP, and Chris Schroeder and Jim Warden are other options. They could try to bring back Luis Ayala, but no other free-agent guy really makes any sense. They shouldn't try to upgrade too much here through free-agency as it would just be wasting money. No one really expects them to contend, and they'd really have to spend to make that possible. Most likely, they;ll try to piece it together and hope Chad Cordero is healthy enough to close again.

So what'll happen this offseason? I wouldn't expect anything major. I expect they'll be named in a few spots, mainly for Manny and a surprise bid for an ace, but I expect those will be fairly hollow. I also expect they'll try to move a few players (Young, Johnson, Kearns), but I imagine they'll be unsuccessful. Even if they are, they won't get anything back. The smartest thing would be to save money for a run in a year or two when Strasburg is ready to go and Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman are cooking, but they'll be tempted into thinking they can contend next season. They can't.

Fitting End for the Mets

Mets fans are saying, "Oh God, not again". Yes, again.

After the Mets lost to the Marlins 4-2, the Mets have been eliminated from the playoff picture. Therefore, the Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, and Phillies will represent the NL. As for the AL, the Rays, Red Sox, and Angels are assured of playoff spots. The Twins are winning, and the White Sox have won. If the Twins win, they'll be up half a game, and then, the White Sox have to win their postponed game tomorrow to tie. The tie-breaker would be Tuesday.

Anyway, back to the Mets. As in most games, the Mets were ahead and in control heading into the last bit. Like the last bit of games with their bullpen, they lost the playoff race at the very end. Today, their bullpen lost them the game, although they didn't blow the save. It just seems fitting that they would lose the season-defining moment in such a way.

Lee to Miss Start Due to Stiff Neck

At least Lee didn't give too many "throwback" performances this year.

That's okay. Everyone else's neck hurts from shaking their heads in disbelief. Last year's Lee and this year's are the same person, right?

Garciaparra to Manage Today

Remember the good ole' days?

Joe Torre is going to allow Nomar Garciaparra to manage the team today. Evidently, Torre did this while he was in New York. Here's Garciaparra's lineup:

Juan Pierre LF (Gotta love the speed man, and he never strikes out)
Angel Berroa SS (He's the Rookie of the Year)
Jeff Kent 2B (Who else has this pop from a second baseman?)
Andruw Jones CF (He's the man. Great defender and has power)
Mike Piazza C (Best offensive catcher ever)
Mark Sweeney 1B (James Loney isn't that good)
Delwyn Young RF (He's one of the brightest prospects in the game)
Nomar Garciaparra 3B (I'll be humble and hit eighth)

The problem, apparently, is that Torre forgot to tell Garciaparra it's not 2003 anymore. At least this way, the Dodgers are resting their starters. You can't expect that much from a guy who spends most of his time in the training room and the disabled list.

Urgent! Please Read

Ms. Ng, it's the Seattle Mariners.

I have decided that I hate baseball, and therefore, I will no longer write on here.

...

I hope no one believed me. Sorry about not writing on here yesterday, but I decided to be social. I got to hang out with some friends and go to the UK football game (GO CATS!). They won 41-3 over WKU, but when I realized we play Alabama next weekend, I realized we'll probably lose by the same score. Anyway, I just didn't have any time yesterday, but I'll be back to writing today.

Also of note, tomorrow will begin my "Offseason Series". This is how it will shake down. I'll give a brief review of the team's season, but I won't spend more than a paragraph on it. Next, I'll look at the team and its farm system position-by-position according to who might be able to make the major-league team (it won't be as specific or thorough as I did for the Braves because I'll only examine players who might be on the team next year). While I'm doing all that, I might make some suggestions as to what they should do (trade, sign, etc.), but toward the end, I'll make more of a summary of what changes they should make and what they need. As for when your team will appear on here, I'll do one each day in reverse order of records (right now, Washington will be first, Seattle second, San Diego third, and so on). It should be fun, and I hope you come back every day to see them and then tell me how dumb my ideas are.

Chipper to First?

I have this picture at home. Isn't it beautiful?

I've been thinking about this for awhile, but I've neglected to write about it. After his shoulder injury, this may be the offseason the Braves finally move Chipper to first base. People have talked about it in previous seasons, but with his foot problem a few years ago, we all assumed it would be a bad idea. But would it? First, his problems have gone away. The new shoes and moving back to the infield have helped tremendously, and he has enough athleticism to make the transition. Second, while first base seems weak in the organization, there's something the Braves could do about that. His name is Casey Kotchman. I realize he can't play third, but let's think for a moment. The Mariners need a first baseman, and they may want to get rid of Adrian Beltre. The Rangers could keep Chris Davis at third and put Kotchman on first, and then, the Braves could get Blalock (I realize his health history, but he might be worth a shot). Joe Crede could be an option, but again, his health history doesn't help. When the Orioles lose on Teixeira, Kotchman could play first, and the Braves could get Mora. Casey Blake is another option on the free-agent market, and Kotchman can be traded for something else. Third, Chipper would do anything for the organization, and though he didn't like moving the first time, he might do this if an impact guy came in return. However, there is one catch: his groin. He's had some groin issues the last few seasons, and one stretch could tweak it. I'm not really sure that it would, but with his groin, anything could happen. Anyway, first seems less labor-intensive, and I think the Braves should think more about it, especially if the injury is serious. If Chipper doesn't want to do it, then I completely understand it, and he's earned the right to say no. Still, it might be the best option for all involved.

All-No One Knows Team

Excuse me, why do we need to know this stuff?

Well, as the season winds down, stats are essentially in, standings are being confirmed, and October baseball or vacation is being planned. One thing that always gets me is how some people have these great seasons and no one knows about them. In order to correct that, I'm going to go through and point out some of those great seasons. I hope you'll join me.

C --> Chris Ianetta (COL)
.269/.396/.517, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 22 2B, 49 R

A year removed from losing his job to Yorvit Torrealba by hitting .218, Ianetta has re-taken the job with a great season (101 games) at the plate.

Honorable Mention: Bengie Molina (SF)- Does he ever get enough credit?

1B --> Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
.281/.362/.513, 36 HR, 118 RBI, 31 2B, 102 R

Playing in Petco Park, Gonzalez has put up huge numbers, and still, very few people know who he is. He wasn't even in the top 8 of All-Star voting! How?!

Honorable Mention: Joey Votto (CIN)- He'll be well known by the time his career's over.

2B --> Brandon Phillips (CIN)
.261/.312/.442, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 24 2B, 7 3B, 23 SB, 80 R

I thought about Mark DeRosa here because no one really gives him the credit, but Phillips wasn't in the top 8 of All-Star voting whereas DeRosa was no. 2. Phillips' season wasn't as good as last, but he keeps plugging away as one of the top second basemen in baseball.

Honorable Mention: Alexei Ramirez (CWS)- He could take a walk every now and then.

3B --> Jorge Cantu (FLA)
.277/.328/.484, 29 HR, 94 RBI, 40 2B, 92 R

Lost after bringing in 117 in 2004, Cantu is still only 26 and made a huge comeback this season. Too bad he plays in Florida.

Honorable Mention: Mark Reynolds (ARI)- Congratulations on setting the strikeout record!

SS --> Stephen Drew (ARI)
.290/.330/.501, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 44 2B, 11 3B, 90 R

Like Reynolds, he's lost in Arizona. Still, Drew is one of the best young shortstops in the game, and he's starting to live up to his billing.

Honorable Mention: Mike Aviles (KC)- Are you happy now Ron?

OF --> Jayson Werth (PHI)
.270/.362/.493, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 16 2B, 19 SB, 69 R

He's the reason why Pat Burrell won't be in Philly next season. He's done a great job in right, and I expect he'll move to left next season.

OF --> Nick Markakis (BAL)
.303/.404/.490, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 48 2B, 106 R

Lost in Huff's shadow ... Right. Markakis is one of those young guys you don't hear about because he's lost in the whole East Coast Bias thing. Oh, wait. That's supposed to work the other way around. Oh well.

OF --> Andre Ethier (LAD)
.303/.371/.507, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 36 2B, 90 R

Manny-mania has taken over in LA, but Ethier has killed it in September (.455/.543/.697). He's another big reason for LA's division win.

Honorable Mentions: Nate McLouth (PIT), Ryan Ludwick (STL), Corey Hart (MIL)- Few know who these guys are either, but they did better in the All-Star voting.

SP --> Ricky Nolasco (FLA)
15-7, 3.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 205.1 IP, 176 K, 41 BB

People really like Josh Johnson (not that I'm complaining), but why are they forgetting Nolasco?

SP --> Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)
10-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 186.2 IP, 119 K, 57 BB

Another Oriole? Man, these guys have better players than I thought they did. Still won't matter.

Honorable Mentions: Armando Galarraga (DET), Todd Wellemeyer (STL), Paul Maholm (PIT)- No one would want this staff on name along, but it would end up being one hell of one.

RP --> Scott Downs (TOR)
24 HLD, 5 SV, 1.78 ERA, 70. 2 IP, 57 K, 27 BB

Kentucky boy! And, he's been one hell of a pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he might be a dark horse candidate for the rotation next season.

RP --> Taylor Buchholz (COL)
21 HLD, 1 SV, 2.17 ERA, 66.1 IP, 56 K, 18 BB

Not that Buchholz, Taylor has been great out of the Colorado 'pen, but Fuentes gets most of the publicity.

Honorable Mentions: Jim Johnson (BAL), Jesse Carlsson (TOR), Jesse Arendondo (LAA)- I could name a few more, but let's stop here.

CP --> Joakim Soria (KC)
41/44 SVO, 1.63 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 66.1 IP, 66 K, 17 BB

People may be starting to get to know him, but I guarantee few know how absolutely dominating this guy is.

Honorable Mention: Matt Capps (PIT)- His ERA is a little north of 3, so he loses out to Soria.

Aubrey Huff

Pretty good swing, since 2002.

Lost in another bad season, the Orioles have still had a few good players, and number one on that list has to Aubrey Huff. As of now, his line is .306/.352/.556 with 31 HR, 108 RBI, 96 R, and 48 2B this season. I really thought he should have made the All-Star team, but Ortiz and Bradley made it instead. People forget about this guy, but he's actually had a pretty solid career, not Hall worthy but definitely better than most. At age 31, he's reached his prime, so you can look for him to probably start to decline. However, he mainly DH's, so he shouldn't wear down too soon. I look for him to do pretty well over the next two seasons before he drastically declines. Still, he won't be as successful next year.

Penny for Your Pitcher?

I love the look of the umpire's face. Granted, I would have pissed in my pants by now.

Brad Penny's option looks as though it won't be exercised for next season. The Dodgers placed him on the 60-day DL in order to activate Rafael Furcal, and when asked about his option, Penny replied that GM Ned Coletti had not talked about it with him, indicating it wouldn't be picked up. Now, will it? For $9 million, Penny would be worth the gamble I would think. However, if they just go ahead and unload Pierre and Andruw (anywhere), they could have enough money to go for Sabathia, meaning Penny won't be needed. Side bar, they should just get rid of Jones and Pierre, even if they don't get much back. Back to Penny, he has been fairly injury prone, but before this year, he had three straight years of 30+ starts. In my humble opinion, letting Penny go would be a bad idea. You don't get $9 million ace-potential pitchers anymore. If they let him go, I hope the Braves, and I know other teams, will take a chance and sign him. He'll only be 31 next season. Anyone else think he'll be motivated next year?

Feds Have "Proof"

What happened to the snarky comments over Bonds and Pettite's heads?

Apparently, the Feds have proof that Bonds used steroids. Personally, didn't we all know he did? How many of us really doubted that he used? At this point, the whole trial is really just a sham. I don't like Barry Bonds (because he's not a nice person) and despise players that cheat. However, isn't this whole thing too much? If he lied, then I guess he could be sent to prison on perjury charges, but what about Rafael Palmeiro? We have explicit evidence against him but no trial date. Why? I think the government could use the money for this stupid trial that won't solve or change anything and "bailout" companies or whatever crappy concoction they can come up with.

Marte's Calf Injury Ends His Season

No, you have to hit it where they ain't in order to run the bases.

Just in case no one has a clue about whom I am talking, Andy Marte used to be the best prospect in the Atlanta organization. He was so good in fact that the Braves traded him straight up for Edgar Renteria. Marte was later traded to Cleveland where he's spent the last few months trying to play third base. His career line is .211/.265/.315 during his stints in Atlanta and Cleveland, so he's never really panned out. Once Casey Blake was traded, the third base position was all but his for the last two months. Needless to say, that didn't pan out. Somehow, I see him traded/released over the offseason or in Spring Training, and he still has some potential considering he's only 24. I guess you can just chalk him up as another AAAA player. For now, he has a calf injury that ended his season.

Oh Where Have You Gone Josh Hamilton?

When was the last time you saw this guy on Sportscenter?

After hitting a scorching .310/.367/.552 with 21 HR and 95 RBI in the first half, Josh Hamilton only has 31 HR and 124 RBI as of right now. That means he only has 10 HR and 29 RBI in the second half. His line is .291/.375/.491 in the second half, so he really hasn't dropped that much in the second half. So why has he stopped producing runs? You can thank Ian Kinsler and Michael Young for getting hurt for that. Their injuries probably cost Josh Hamilton the MVP Award. Not that it's their fault, but if he even has just 60 RBI in the second half, he would have 155 RBI for the season. He would probably be the front-runner in an otherwise lackluster MVP class. Regardless, after a love fest in the first half for Hamilton, he's been a non-entity in the second.

So much for the Triple Crown talk, huh?

Hank Back at It Again

Sorry for running you over. Life's not fair.

After the Yankees have been assured of going home for October, Hank Steinbrenner is already complaining about the playoff system. My favorite:

"The biggest problem is the divisional setup in major league baseball. I didn't like it in the 1970s, and I hate it now," Steinbrenner wrote. "Baseball went to a multidivision setup to create more races, rivalries and excitement. But it isn't fair. You see it this season, with plenty of people in the media pointing out that Joe Torre and the Dodgers are going to the playoffs while we're not. "This is by no means a knock on Torre - let me make that clear-but look at the division they're in. If L.A. were in the AL East, it wouldn't be in the playoff discussion. The AL East is never weak."

Life just isn't fair for the Yankees is it? Not to mention that it's not fair they pay $100 million more than just about every one for their team, but it isn't fair for the Yankees. By the way, divisional play started in 1969. Just sayin'.

David Price's Role

This is a little different from Spring Training.

After going 5 1/3 solid innings the other night, there have been discussions as to what the Rays should do with him come crunch time. He's up to 121 IP for the season, so he'll probably have like 125 by the end, which means he should only pitch like 155 next season. If you start him in the playoffs, he could get up to 140 IP, which would allow like 170 next season. He did pitch 133.1 IP last season at Vanderbilt, so 140 wouldn't be too much. However, when you have the rotation that the Rays do, I wouldn't mess with it. I would turn Price into a two-inning reliever, which is easy to do in the AL considering they don't have to worry about pinch-hitting. In the first time through the order, he has a staggering .095 BAA. If you pitch him two innings, they won't get to the second-time through the order. As for the righty matchup, they're only .205 against him (I realize this is only through 11 IP, but it's what I have to work with), so he seems like he'll be able to get them out. They also don't have much of a scouting report on him yet. Let Kazmir and Shields and Garza do some heavy lifting, and then bring in Price after Jackson/Sonnanstine have gone 5 solid. Then, hand it over to Price for 6 and 7, and then the rest can get the last six outs. Or, let them go 6, and Price can get through 7 and 8 with 9 left to Wheeler or whoever else. Heck, if they really like him, let him pitch 8 and 9, but I think he'd be used too often in that scenario. Yet, K-Rod and Wainwright did kinda the same thing, although Price would have a little bigger of a workload. In other words, don't turn him into a lefty-specialist. He can get both sides out, and to keep him stretched-out, let him pitch two innings at a time. Don't start him because I'm not sure he could really get through more than 6. Jackson and Sonnanstine can do that, and then, Price can shut the other team down after that.

Webb vs. Lincecum

Don't get caught in a Webb of lies about this year's NL Cy Young contenders.

Like I did the other day with Halladay and Lee, I'm going to give you an unbiased view of the NL Cy Young race. It's basically between Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb (let's just assume Dempster doesn't get it if Lincecum doesn't). So, let's look at the stats.

Tim Lincecum - Brandon Webb

Wins: 17 - 22 (Webb 1-0)
Losses: 4 - 7 (1-1)
ERA: 2.46 - 3.24 (Lincecum 2-1)
Games: 32 - 33 (2-2)
Games Started: 31 - 33 (Webb 3-2)
Complete Games: 2 - 3 (Webb 4-2)
Shut-outs: 1 - 1 (Webb 4-2)
Innings Pitched: 215.2 - 219.2 (Webb 5-2)
Hits: 172 - 200 (Webb 5-3)
Runs: 65 - 91 (Webb 5-4)
Earned Runs: 59 - 79 (5-5)
Home Runs: 10 -13 (Lincecum 6-5)
HBP: 6 - 10 (Lincecum 7-5)
Walks: 77 - 63 (Lincecum 7-6)
Strikeouts: 243 - 176 (Lincecum 8-6)
Wild Pitches: 16 - 8 (Lincecum 8-7)
Stolen Bases: 19 - 24 (Lincecum 9-7)
Caught Stealing: 2 - 9 (Lincecum 9-8)
Pickoffs: 0 - 1 (9-9)
WHIP: 1.15 - 1.20 (Lincecum 10-9)
SLG: .312 - .333 (Lincecum 11-9)
OBP: .294 - .301 (Lincecum 12-9)
BAA: .220 - .243 (Lincecum 13-9)
K/BB: 3.16 - 2.79 (Lincecum 14-9)
BB/9: 3.21 - 2.58 (Lincecum 14-10)
K/9: 10.14 - 7.21 (Lincecum 15-10)
H/9: 7.18 - 8.19 (Lincecum 16-10)
WPA: 5.06 - 3.73 (Lincecum 17-10)
BABIP: .306 - .297 (Lincecum 17-11)
GB/FB: 1.23 - 2.97 (Lincecum 17-12)
DP: 23 - 25 (Lincecum 17-13)
Quality Starts: 25 - 24 (Lincecum 18-13)
Doubles: 36 - 31 (Lincecum 18-14)
Triples: 3 -2 (Lincecum 18-15)
VORP: 72.1 - 40.0 (Lincecum 19-15)

Well, Lincecum won a bit more convincingly than Lee did, but as you can see, the battle between Lincecum and Webb is a bit closer than I think most realize.

NL Rookie of the Year

He's smiling because he's probably bringing home some hardware.

Considering Evan Longoria has all-but-cemented his spot as the AL Rookie of the Year (sorry Armando Galarraga fans), let's take a last look at the NL side of things (I'll probably make comments about the awards after they've been publicized, but honestly, can we all agree that whoever they pick deserves the award? It's not the player's fault they were chosen, and all the debates really do is hurt their feelings. Wow, how sentimental of me. Now, back to the statistics). I've narrowed the candidates down to three.

Geovany Soto (CHC) -> .286/.364/.505, 23 HR, 35 2B, 86 RBI, 66 R
The negative: 121 K

Joey Votto (CIN) -> .288/.361/.486, 22 HR, 30 2B, 79 RBI, 59 R
The negative: Soto did better in fewer at-bats.

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) -> 13-10, 3.68 ERA, 188.1 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 139 K, 70 BB
The negative: August (5.73 ERA) and September (4.30).

So who wins? Between Soto and Votto, Soto has to win considering his stats are better than Votto's in fewer AB's. Votto's been great, but Soto's just been a smidge better (I do mean a smidge). Plus, he plays a more important position on a World Series-caliber team. As for Jurrjens vs. Soto, the debate is tougher. Comparing pitchers and hitters is like comparing apples and oranges. How do you really compare them? First (and maybe the best) is to look at how their teams have played. The Cubs are a winning team, whereas the Braves aren't so much. However, I don't like the "winning team" argument for other awards, so even though it might be the best way to compare across positions, it really isn't all that helpful. Second, how do they compare overall with veteran players. Soto is one of the top 3 offensive catchers (10%) in baseball, and I would even say possibly a top 50 (6.67% considering 25 x 30 = 750 players) position player (especially given his position). Jurrjens is probably a top 30 pitcher (20% considering 5 x 30 = 150 pitchers). The edge seems to go to Soto, but that may not be very helpful because you really have to combine them to choose the award. However, considering those things already seem to favor Soto and he's had a lot more press, I think Soto's a shoe-in as well.

Who's in Center?

Save the money and prospects and give this guy a shot. If not, I'm sure Austin Jackson could be a good player.

The Yankees are trying to figure out who's going to play center next season because obviously Melky Cabrera can't do it. He's never been great, but he didn't take a big step forward this season. Actually, he took a step back. What makes him different from Jeff, who I talked about earlier? Frenchy has had quite a bit of success before this season. Otherwise, it would be perfectly reasonable to assume Cabrera could be a decent outfielder for someone.

Anyway, they talked about Nate McLouth (bad idea for the Pirates to trade him), David DeJesus (he's not spectacular and would cost more money and prospects), and Matt Kemp (who may not play center for too much longer). Honestly, they should probably just stick with Brett Gardner. I realize his .190/.250/.255 line isn't great, but he's been very good over the past week. Plus, he's a very good defensive outfielder (did you see that catch?). He also has quite a bit of speed that would give them a leadoff hitter for the first time since well ... a while.

Jeff Francoeur

We need this to more common over the next five to ten years.

As I've wondered about this off-season and next season, Jeff Francoeur is obviously one of the biggest question marks for the Braves. Recently, there have been reports of a Royals trade that would send Francoeur to Kansas City for pitching. I keep hearing Brian Bannister's name bandied about, but I'm not sure why the hell the Braves would want him (see: 5.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 109 K). I don't think the Royals would trade Greinke for Frenchy, but I wonder about Meche. The added money could help them get Furcal, and the Braves have money to spend. However, I've heard Meche is not for sale. Would they trade Hovechar for Frenchy? I'm not sure I really believe in Hovechar, but it might be a fair trade.

Anyway, back to Francoeur's season. It's been terrible, frustrating, and embarrasing for Braves fans and Francoeur. However, I really wonder how bad it is and if he can't turn it around. Let's take a more in-depth look. First, his average is down to .239, but that's better than the .224 he had August 13th. Looking a bit deeper, his BABIP is .274, which is a bit low (.290 is around normal), so he should go up next season. Yet, it would only be a few points (maybe up to .250). In 2006, his BABIP was .286, and he hit .260. That's more of what I expect. I don't see him hitting .293 (his BABIP was .342), but .260 is not impossible for next season.

Next, if he's going to hit that low, he has to hit more home runs. In 2006, he hit 29, but he's gone down to 19 and 11 the past two years. I really don't think 15 HR is what we can expect. I think 25 is more like it, which would make him somewhat valuable. That would probably bring his RBI totals back towards 90. Also, he's hit 31 2B this season after hitting 40 last season, so he's still hitting some gaps, and a better BA would probably get him closer to that.

As long as Jeff's been in the majors, his plate discipline has always been a topic of conversation. This year, people seem to have really jumped on the bandwagon and bashed him for it. When looking at the stats, it shows quite the opposite. His BB% is actually higher than last year (6.4 to last year's 6.1), and his K% is down from last year (17.8 to last year's 20.1). His Outside of Zone Swing percentage is also down to 35.85 from the 36.70 from last season. To me, that indicates the exact opposite of worse plate discipline, but it's still not good discipline.

Another big thing people have talked about is his double plays hit into. Yet, his 18 this year is only slightly bigger than previous years (16 and 14 respectively). Again, our minds play tricks on us.

So why has Frenchy been so bad? One, mechanics. His mechanics have been off all year. At first, he "stepped in the bucket" (he stepped down towards the third base line instead of at the pitcher) every time. You can't drive the ball and keep everything in sync when you step out like that. You're hips, shoulders, and head pull out, leaving him with little power. This has resulted in his HR/FB% to go from 9.8 to 6.6. More power would get him more home runs instead of fly ball outs. Second, his GB/FB has gone from 1.16 to 1.27, which can be explained by his head movement not allowing him to see the pitch and movement properly to get on top of the ball (well, not really literally -- that would be like asking him to hit groundballs ... anyway). If he doesn't see the spin, he doesn't swing in the right spot, causing a groundball. Then, lacking power from the bad hip movement, he can't slap it through the infield like he did last season, resulting in groundball outs.

After everything, is he going to be a good ball player? Well, yes and no. He's going to be inconsistent. He may give you a great year like the last two or a dud like this one. The other thing to take into account is his age, 24. He'll continue to get better (mentally and physically). He skipped AAA, so he lost some development. Before, he could just shake it off because he had success, but I expect he'll have a renewed energy to his mechanics and approach at the plate this offseason. He could ignore advice before because he was succeeding, but now, he has to change. Overall, I'd keep him. Next year, he should bounce back in a big way, but then again, we were hoping for that this season. I couldn't stand to lose him knowing what he could do. But, we'll find out what he's made of next season. Will he fight and make adjustments, or will he let his first taste of failure ruin him? With a friend like McCann, I expect he'll bounce back.

Alvarez Agrees on Contract ... Again ... Finally

Somehow, I think no one is going to remember this in five years.

At least it's over now ... maybe. Pedro Alvarez signed a new contract with the Pirates that should end his holdout and grievance. However, there a few fishy things about this. First, this is essentially a deal signed after the deadline, just like the other one except this one is egregiously after the deadline. Why does this one count? Second, why did the Pirates give in? They gave him the major-league contract. If they really did have the upper hand, shouldn't they have just stuck to their guns? Or, are they trying to get him signed so that he can Winter Ball? That would help determine just how good he is, and therefore, he could move quickly through the system. However, they and everyone else already figured he would move quickly, so maybe, they would have to wait an extra few months. Still, I think they could have started him in AA if they really wanted to. Third, how much did Scott Boras play in the final negotiations? Did Alvarez go over his head to get it done, or was the major-league contract what Boras really wanted? I'm not sure, but I think he probably wanted the bigger bonus instead. Maybe not. Oh well, I guess he can just get back to playing baseball, which he would have essentially been able to do for the past month and a half.

Willis for Lugo?

His mugshot from his arrest for talent fraud.

Jon Morosi is wondering about a trade between the Red Sox and Tigers where Dontrelle Willis and Juilo Lugo would switch teams. Lugo, although hammered in the press, has a .268/.355/.330 line that really isn't far off from his career norm. The really big drop is in his slugging percentage, but more frequent playing time and lack of injuries usually takes care of that. Defensively, he's no good, but people seem to have their worst defensive times in Boston. He could still be somewhat useful to the Tigers, especially if he stays healthy. That leads me to the injustice of this deal, what does Boston get back?

Seriously, Willis has really plummeted. Could he bounce back? I guess, but if I'm Theo, I expect something else back from the Tigers, even if it's just a throw-in prospect.

Nolan to Shake Up Rangers

I still think he should lace 'em up again. Just secretly give him some greenies or something. Aw hell, just ask Clemens how he did it.

Whether this speaks specifically to the players or coaches or both (or even Jon Daniels), that is up for debate. However, after having the highest ERA in baseball, there is no doubt the Rangers need a new pitching staff. For starters (pun intended), they could make a play at Sabathia. I don't see them offering as much as the Yankees or Angels, but it's possible. If they can't, I don't see Sabathia willingly heading to a hitter's park. With all the prospects they have, I see them going after Jon Garland and Derek Lowe, who are ground-ball guys that won't demand five-year deals. Other guys like Mike Hampton, Kyle Lohse, or Randy Wolf might be nice additions. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Mussina back with the Yankees next season, so he's off the list. That leaves the big guys of Ben Sheets and AJ Burnett. With the injuries to the Blue Jay rotation, I think letting Burnett go would be a bad idea. As for Sheets, his injuries make him a bit of a risk for what he'll likely want, but there will be worse additions. Another problem is the amount of high-priced guys they already have. Kevin Millwood (through '10) and Vicente Padilla (through '09) cost a lot of money. They could try to trade them away, but they won't get a whole lot back (with the Rangers' farm system, just getting rid of the money commitment should be enough, but it likely won't be). They cost a combined $23 million next year, which together would be a nice run for Sabathia, but will it be enough? That's TBD for now. Honestly, the best way to get some pitching isn't to open the money vault. The best way would be through their prospect vault. Saltalamacchia for a Boston guy (Michael Bowden?)? Andrus to the Yankees for Hughes (possible replacement for Jeter?)? They could be more creative and combine guys for a run at a Kazmir, Peavy (anyone else think this guy has a pretty good chance of being traded?), Harang (who should bounce back), or Greinke.

Rays and Cubbies in Playoffs

Congratulations Rays, you've finally built up enough karma.

Both teams clinched spots in the playoffs yesterday. The Cubs won the NL Central for the second straight season, and the Rays secured at least the Wild Card. Today, the Red Sox could clinch their playoff spot. So how does the playoff picture look? Well, at 2 1/2 games up in their respective divisions, the Rays and White Sox seem to be unless something dramatic (but possible) happens. The Angels are in, and the Red Sox are all but in. In the NL, the Cubs are the only ones "in", but go ahead and count the Dodgers, Phillies, and Mets "in" as well. The thing we don't know is who will win the NL East, but the other should win the Wild Card at this point. If everything stays the same (which in the AL is entirely possible and probable), the Angels will play the Red Sox, and the Rays will play the White Sox. In the NL, the Cubs will play the Wild Card (right now the Mets), and the NL East champ (right now the Phillies -- they're up 1/2 game) will play the Dodgers. The Red Sox-Angels series seems to be a disappointment from the standpoint that I think a lot of people wanted to see that in the ALCS, but I guess you can't always get what you want.

Teahen More Comfortable at Third

Look at those skinny legs.

While Alex Gordon has been dealing with a right-hip flexor tear, Mark Teahen has moved to third base, and he has responded by going 25 for 63 with six doubles, three homers, and 10 RBI's in 16 games. He says that being in the infield helps him keep his legs. In 2006 at third base, he hit .290/.357/.517 with 18 HR, 21 2B, and 69 RBI in 109 games, and he seemed poised for a real breakout last season. However, the Royals moved him to the outfield to make room for Alex Gordon, whose lack of athleticism (or at least less than Teahen) prohibited him from making the move. He responded by hitting .285/.353/.410 with only 7 HR in 144 games. If you think this is ludicrous, think about Chipper Jones. The season before he moved to left field to make room for Vinny Castilla, he hit .330/.427/.605 with 38 HR and 33 2B. The next two seasons in left, he hit .327/.435/.536 and .305/.402/.517 with 26 and 27 HR and 35 and 33 2B. While those stats aren't quite the precipitous drop of Teahen, Chipper was in his prime and is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Still, during your prime, your power numbers shouldn't drop 11 to 12 HR and almost 100 SLG points. Therefore, I think Teahen has a point, and maybe they should move Gordon to first. Billy Butler can just DH like most want him to anyway. The thing becomes what to do with Kila Ka'aihue (the brother of Atlanta prospect Kala). He did very well in AA and AAA hitting .314/.463/.624 with 37 HR, 100 RBI, and 15 2B (? can that be right?). In the majors, he's 5/15 with a HR. Small sample size yes, but with everything else, it indicates he can play. Also of note, he only struck out 67 times against 104 BB. Who else thinks the Royals could use more walks?

Lee vs. Halladay

Who will win this most-coveted trophy?

I know this is another one these debates you've heard a few times, but how about an unbiased view. So far, I've heard both sides make great cases as to why one of them should win. The problem is that they use different statistics. Therefore, this is how this will shake down. I won't give an opinion on who should win. I'm going to put all their stats out there that I can find, and then, we'll see who has the best stats. How to do this? Each player gets one point per category. Statistics are nice, but they are essentially flawed. They can't be perfect measurements of a pitcher's performance by themselves, but together, it could work. Thus, each category counts just the same as another. Because they are each imperfect, they are thus equally imperfect (I know the logic doesn't make perfect sense, but bear with me). Here we go.

(Cliff Lee - Roy Halladay)

Wins: 22 - 19 (Lee 1-0)
Losses: 2-11 (Lee 2-0)
ERA: 2.41 - 2.81 (Lee 3-0)
Games: 30 - 33 (Lee 3-1)
Games Started: 30 - 32 (Lee 3-2)
Complete Games: 4 - 8 (3-3)
Shut-outs: 2 - 2 (3-3)
Innings Pitched: 216.1 - 237 (Halladay 4-3)
Hits: 205 - 214 (4-4)
Home-runs: 11 - 18 (Lee 5-4)
Walks: 31- 38 (Lee 6-4)
Strikeouts: 162 - 201 (Lee 6-5)
WHIP: 1.09 - 1.06 (6-6)
SLG: .341 - .348 (Lee 7-6)
OBA: .281 - .278 (7-7)
BAA: .251 - .239 (Halladay 8-7)
Holds: 0 - 1 (Halladay 9-7)
K/BB: 5.23 - 5.29 (Halladay 10-7)
BB/9: 1.29 - 1.44 (Halladay 10-8)
K/9: 6.74 - 7.63 (Halladay 11-8)
BABIP: .302 - .297 (Halladay 12-8)
WPA: 6.50 - 4.17 (Halladay 12-9)
VORP: 75.3 - 66.4 (Halladay 12-10)
Quality Starts: 23 - 21 (Halladay 12-11)
HBP: 5 - 12 (12-12)
DP: 26-19 (Lee 13-12)
Groundball/Flyball: 1.39 - 2.06 (13-13)
Runs: 63- 83 (Lee 14-13)
Earned Runs: 58 - 71 (Lee 15-13)
Wild Pitches: 3 - 4 (Lee 15-14)
Doubles: 29 - 31 (Lee 16-14)
Triples: 6 - 6 (Lee 16-14)
Stolen Bases: 3 - 13 (Lee 17-14)
Caught Stealing: 0 - 5 (Lee 17-15)

After 33 categories, Lee is the winner. I kept looking for as many stats as possible, and I know there are more out there (I don't know much about the sabermetric stuff, so I didn't include it in fear of being seen as an idiot). However, that's a pretty substantial number of stats, and Lee won. However, he didn't win by much. Maybe, instead of griping about how one shouldn't win, we should just be happy about how each has pitched. I know that won't happen, but I hope to not see so many places saying how Lee shouldn't have won. He's clearly one of the top pitchers in the league, and he may be getting some "wow" points for his turnaround. Who should win? I guess I could say, "Who cares? This just proves how stupid these things are." However, when we look back on Hall of Famers, we look at these awards. How many did they win? So, in reality, I guess they do matter. Can't they both just win it? I guess that's probably too cowardly of me.

Jo-Jo Reyes

What to do-do with Jo-Jo?

Usually when I have a headline like this, it's a good thing. Not today. Jo-Jo Reyes lost again last night, and there have to be serious doubt about his ability to be a good starter in the majors. What do the Braves do with him. I wouldn't send him down because he's already proven he's better than any AAA competition. He seems like he's that AAAA pitcher. Another thought would be to put him in the pen. The only problem with that is that he's worse in the first inning than he is any other time. His line is .300/.367/.563 in the first inning, and that doesn't look good for trying him in the bullpen. However, after 31 major league starts, his ERA is 5.89, so he can't really stay there either. I wonder if the energy and adrenaline of coming in like that would help do better in the first inning he pitches. He's left-handed, so he could be a very valuable bullpen arm. That way, he could use his best two pitches and leave it at that. Would that help? I'm not sure, but if he doesn't do well in Spring Training and his first few starts afterwards, I would think about moving him to the 'pen.

New Record!

Please tell me someone gets this besides me.

Well, this one isn't very good, but Jack Cust broke the strikeout record with his 187th last night. Too bad he's not a pitcher. In a season (really more of a half) that the A's would like to forget, Cust added another forgettable outcome. Most people think of him as a "Three True Outcomes" player (strikes out, walks, or hits a home run), and this season he has 29 HR, 103 BB, and 187 K. That's pretty much by the book. Are 3TO players helpful? I guess if you consider a guy like Adam Dunn helpful. I do, so I think they are. Cust's .369 OBP is pretty good, and you gotta like the power. However, you hate it when he comes up in the 9th with a couple guys on. You're just waiting for him to strikeout because you know it happens six times more often than a homer. They aren't guys you can depend on in crucial situations (although they'll help a few times), but they can still give quite a bit of production. His close-and-late stats? .242/.413/.565 with 6 HR and 32 K.

Marcum to Have Tommy John

It's gonna get rougher.

Another tough break for the Toronto Blue Jays, Shaun Marcum has to have surgery on his elbow. It's another paycheck for Dr. Andrews, but it's 12 months or more of rehab for Marcum. This season, he was 9-7 with a 3.39 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP with 123 K and 50 BB in 151.1 IP. He was supposed to be the next big cog in that rotation. That rotation was supposed to be Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and maybe AJ Burnett (if they could keep him). Instead, they're left with Halladay and Litsch. Not that Litsch isn't good, but I think the Blue Jays would prefer McGowan (shoulder surgery and out until about May) and Marcum over just Litsch. If possible, they would have liked all three. Does this knock them out of talks for winning next season, even with Travis Snider, Adam Lind, and JP Arencibia? Brett Cecil could step in, but he's a former closer. If the "30 Inning" rule doesn't apply to him, it doesn't to anyone, and in case it does, he can only throw about 150 IP next season. Other guys like David Purcey and Casey Janssen could also be options, but they don't seem as good as Marcum and McGowan. It'll be rough for the Blue Jays next year.

Chipper in GQ

This is more like it.

I never thought I'd see the day when Chipper would be in GQ. He's not really known for his dress, and I've always considered him more redneck than metrosexual. Luckily, that's not what the article is about. He's dressed in the Braves home uniform, and he's talking about his career, especially the early years. It's always interesting to hear people bagging on him for his affair/divorce, calling out "Hooters!", and the like, but it's undeniable what he's done on the field. For the most part, I've always tried to keep on the field stuff and off the field stuff separate, but I know that's difficult to do. Anyway, Chipper talks pretty openly about what happened early in his career. At that point, I was too young to really pay attention/discern what was going on. I knew about the divorce because the World Series analysts basically couldn't stop talking about it when he filed for divorce, but I couldn't have really understood what happened or what he did. Despite what he's done, I still consider him my all-time favorite player (I don't think he's the best to play the game), and when he retires, McCann will take his place as my favorite active player. No one will take his place as my favorite player. I grew up with him. When he was young and immature, I was really young and really immature. The one thing I take from his divorce/affair is how he acted after that. Instead of continuing to be a d*ck, he took responsibility. He fessed up in the media, and more importantly, he took care of the child he fathered. He's not perfect, but who is? People make mistakes, but it's what they do after making the mistakes that makes you who you are. As 3 Doors Down says in "The Only One You've Got", "Your mistakes do not define you now, they tell you who you're not."

"30 Inning" Warning List for 2009

Update: Jason at IIATMS just told me that it should be over their career-high, so you can strike Ervin Santana from that list. However, does anyone else think it's a bad idea to go so far over a previous season? Sometimes, I think we over-analyze, but it seems at that stage of a career it could still be a problem to have a much larger workload than a previous year.

He's not safe, but his rotation mate seems to be.

After talking about Scott Lewis this morning, it got me thinking about guys who have pitched more than 30 innings more than the previous season. I'm not sure who came up with the rule (it certainly wasn't me), but evidently, if a pitcher under 27 pitches more than 30 innings than he did the previous season, he is in line for injuries and/or decline the next season. So, who's in line for injuries and/or decline?

Tim Lincecum (SF) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 177.1 IP
2008 --> 215.2 IP
People have always talked about his freakish delivery and how it could have problems. Will it come to roost in '09?

Cole Hamels (PHI) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 183.1 IP
2008 --> 220.1 IP
Will the Phillies have to survive with Myers/Moyer next season?

Chad Billingsley (LAD) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 147 IP
2008 --> 192.2 IP
This guy is one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors, but he'll top 200 K. What about next year?

Jon Lester (BOS) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 153.2 IP
2008 --> 197.1 IP
He's a great comeback story, but will he have to make another comeback in 2010?

John Danks (CWS) --> 23 years old
2007 --> 139 IP
2008 --> 176 IP
And he was just starting to realize his potential.

Ervin Santana (LAA) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 150 IP
2008 --> 205 IP
He's already had this problem as '06 predicted an '07 decline (which happened). Now, they could be repeating the same mistake.

Joe Saunders (LAA) --> 27 years old
2007 --> 193.2 IP
2008 --> 192 IP
He hasn't reached it yet, but the playoffs could push him over. Geez, maybe the Angels should invest in Sabathia because it seems like they're going to need him.

Ricky Nolasco (FLA) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 55 IP
2008 --> 199.1 IP
Does this rule count for injuries, which Nolasco had las season? Still, that's a lot of innings for Nolasco.

Zach Greinke (KC) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 122 IP
2008 --> 195.1 IP
Trade him. Trade him now.

Matt Garza (TB) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 175 IP
2008 --> 179.2 IP
Like Saunders, the playoffs could do him in (a la Fausto Carmona).

Mike Pelfrey (NYM) --> 24 years old
2007 --> 152.2 IP
2008 --> 188.2 IP
John Maine redux?

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) --> 22 years old
2007 --> 142.2 IP
2008 --> 181.1 IP
Crap.

Gavin Floyd (CWS) --> 25 years old
2007 --> 176.2 IP
2008 --> 188.1 IP
The playoffs can create a long list of problems next year.

Nick Blackburn (MIN) --> 26 years old
2007 --> 160.1 IP
2008 --> 180.2 IP
Another playoff casualty?

Guys like Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Felix Hernandez, Armando Galarraga, Matt Cain, and John Lannan seem to be safe. None should go too far over previous years. But, doesn't this seem like a long, influential list of young arms, and it's not even complete. I stopped after the top 50 pitchers in terms of ERA. Is the focus on young pitching causing this? Is this a real problem? I don't know, but I'll label it and come back to it.

Soto Scratched with Hand Injury

Or, maybe this is how he hurt it.

Yeah, I think my hand would hurt, too, after b*tch-slapping Milwaukee yesterday.

Lewises Thriving for Cleveland

Guess which Lewis.

In a dismal, disappointing season, who has forgotten to check up on the Indians? ME! ME! Oh, anyway. I say, "Scott Lewis", and you say, "Who?". I say, "Jensen Lewis", and you say, "I think I remember him." Regardless, both of these guys have pitched very well for the Indians lately. Scott Lewis is an impressive 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 14 IP, so it's a James Parr small sample size. Yet, his ERA's in AA and AAA were 2.33 and 2.62, respectively. Therefore, I'd say this is relatively for real, or at least, he's a really good pitcher that could theoretically be good. The only bad thing is that he's only thrown around 110 innings this season, so with two more starts, he'll only get to around 125 if he's lucky. According to the "30 Innings" rule, he could only throw around 155 next season, which really isn't enough to be a major-league starter.

As for Jensen Lewis, he's the new closer for the Indians, and he's 10/10 in that situation. Overall, his ERA is 3.96 with 48 K in 61.1 IP, so he's not dominant. However, he has 18 K in his last 17 innings as closer, while giving up only 6 runs in that time. He and Rafael Perez can hopefully give this team a good back of the bullpen next season, and maybe, Betancourt can return to form as well.

Day Off

I wish.

I have about three papers due next week and plenty of reading to do, so there hasn't been and probably won't be anything today. I've started to realize why Jason and Craig take the weekends off. Still, I enjoy doing this, but I do need today off. Things should get back to normal tomorrow and Saturday, but Sunday might or might not be slow due to me writing papers. Actually, chances are I'll take breaks and write on here. Regardless, have a fun Thirsty Thursday because I won't.

Let the Professionals Handle This

They're worried, too. They're worried, too.

Kevin Gregg is worried about his trade value. More specifically, he's worried about him becoming the set-up guy being detrimental for his trade value. First, you don't get to complain about being the set-up guy when you've blown 9 saves. Putting you in to close and blow more saves actually hurts your trade value. Just because you'd be the closer doesn't make anything better. You have to, you know, succeed at your job to improve your trade value. Second, it's not your job to worry about trade value. I'm sure the Marlins are as upset about you losing trade value as you are. At this point, they are going to have to non-tender you to get rid of you. Third, because you know you're going to get traded, then they are going to trade you, which means they need to think about the future. That means, they need to get Lindstrom into closing situations to see if he can handle it.

With a 3.66 ERA and 57 K in 64 IP, Gregg really isn't all that bad. Yet, then you see the 35 BB and the 29/38 in save situations, and you realize that he is that bad. His .211 BAA is pretty good, though. Somebody will bite, but Gregg's right in that it won't be for much, especially with arbitration looming.

Astros Tightening

Will he be laughing for long? Is he laughing now?

Richard Justice thinks the Astros are tightening as the Wild Card race suddenly has fallen out of their hands. So who thinks Cecil Cooper should be fired for choking and not getting his players to play better? Didn't think so. What about Jerry Manuel? Bob Melvin? Apparently not. Ron Gardenhire? I think I made my point.

CC Loses His First

Update: Okay, things just got worse as Ben Sheets just hurt his forearm. Geez.

I almost got to put a no-hitter next to his name. Almost. By about 60 % of the base line.

You know things are bad in Milwaukee when even Sabathia can't pull you out of this mess. I guess this means we can stop putting CC in the Cy Young competition as now he has a mediocre 9-1 record with a 1.83 ERA in his 14 NL starts. Just ridiculous. Over the same time period (since July 8th), here are some other hot pitchers:

Brett Myers (PHI)- 7-1, 1.80 ERA, 80 IP, 69 K, 17 BB, 2 CG, 1 SHO (in AAA first two weeks of the period)

CC Sabathia (MIL) - 9-1, 1.83 ERA, 109 IP, 107 K, 27 BB, 6 CG, 3 SHO

Roy Oswalt (HOU) - 8-2, 2.10 ERA, 81.1 IP, 64 K, 17 BB, 2 CG, 2 SHO (injured for two weeks)

Cliff Lee (CLE) - 11-0, 2.27 ERA, 91.1 IP, 58 K, 9 BB, 3 CG, 1 SHO

Johan Santana (NYM) - 6-0, 2.33 ERA, 88.2 IP, 70 K, 24 BB, 2 CG, 1 SHO

Tim Lincecum (SF) - 7-2, 2.35 ERA, 92 IP, 115K, 33 BB, 1 CG, 1 SHO

Derek Lowe (LAD) - 8-3, 2.55 ERA, 84.2 IP, 54 K, 13 BB

Roy Halladay (TOR) - 8-5, 2.59 ERA, 93.2 IP, 85 K, 15 BB, 2 CG, 1 SHO

Ryan Dempster (CHI) - 7-3, 2.73 ERA, 85.2 IP, 89 K, 32 BB

Chad Billingsley (LAD) - 7-3, 2.89 ERA, 84 IP, 82 K, 30 BB, 1 CG, 1 SHO

P.S. Did anyone else think that Kerry Wood curveball was high? It's where the pitch crosses the plate right?

Cox Not Happy About Yost Firing

I don't know either Bobby.

I'm not either. You tell 'em Bobby.

Back to Parr

Update: House was excellent. Parr was less so as he only goes 4 1/3 while giving up four runs. You just had to know this was going to happen.

I'll watch the Braves game for a little bit, but I'm afraid House takes precedence tonight. I wonder why. Actually, it's more of 13.

In a season where the Braves have had little to get excited about, James Parr will make his 3rd start tonight. During the previous two, he allowed zero runs over 12 innings. He's not a big strikeout guy, but he pounds the strike zone. Will he be an ace? Probably not, especially considering the small sample size, but he could plausibly be an effective 5 guy, which the Braves don't really have at the moment. At this point, he's what I'm excited about. Oh wait, House is on tonight. Sweet.

Posada on Joba

Still one of the top 5 hilarious moments I've seen in baseball.

Jorge Posada thinks Chamberlain belongs in the bullpen. As for that, I'm not so sure, but I really want to talk about his later statement regarding Pedro Martinez. He states:

"I thought he was going to hit me in the head with a bat, after we had the fight and he pushed Don Zimmer. It was ridiculous. I mean, he throws at Karim Garcia because he’s losing the game. I mean, there’s no class"

That statement is in reference to the hilariously funny moment of seeing Pedro take Zimmer's head and throw the coach to the ground. Yet, I have to ask -- why the heck are you bringing this up now? What does this have to do with anything? It always amazes me how this stuff comes up. Kinda like when Moises Alou brought Bartman up out of nowhere earlier this season. It just puzzles me. Oh yeah, there's also little class in bringing this up now.

Just Real Quick About Yost

Update: The "slump" has occurred against the Mets, Reds, and Phillies. Other than the Reds, they've faced some tough teams.

Seriously, did anyone expect this?

WTF? I thought maybe he'd be fired, but I thought it would be after the season. How does anyone know that he can't buckle down in the clutch? Sure, they stumbled down the stretch last season, but they were really young and didn't have the veterans they have now (ie. Cameron, Sabathia). As for this season, they haven't stumbled yet. They still have 12 games left. Every team goes through slumps, so when it coincidentally comes near the end of the year, people think it's always a choke. I've got news for you -- it doesn't always work that way. You can say they are playing tight, but until you get into their heads, don't tell me that. One of two teams has to lose. By this logic, you're telling me that the Braves are now standing up and coming through at the right time? No, they just happen to have started to hit again.

Also, it was Melvin who constructed the crapshoot that is their bullpen, etc. Why is he not the one getting fired, or at least as well? To me, getting a team into the playoffs is a combination of the manager and the GM. The GM puts it together, and the manager helps them perform. Well, if the GM doesn't give the manager the tools (Sabathia did not solve all their problems), then how can he make them perform? Honestly, I just don't see why they fired him now, of all times. Sure, you can hope for a Jerry Manuel turn-around, but I don't think the problems end at the manager (and I would look out for Manuel's job as the Mets start to "choke" -- I mean regress back to where they should be despite over-performing for a couple months).

Sorry, this turned out to be longer than I expected. WTF is really all I wanted to say. Disregard all the other statements. But if you have to disregard this statement, then do you regard all the other statements? I'm confusing myself, so I'll stop now.

Crede's Locker Cleaned Out

Still waiting ...

The White Sox cleaned out Joe Crede's locker as the third baseman continues to come back from back problems. Reportedly, it's because the White Sox feel like Boras and Crede are teaming up to draw out the rehab process. They say it's to prevent another injury, but I don't really buy it. Why would you not run back out there to prove to teams that you're worth the money? Does he really want a one-year contract with little money? Somehow, I really don't seem to think anyone really wants to pony up the money for him. I realize there isn't much in free-agency, but Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, Melvin Mora, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jorge Cantu, Adrian Beltre, and Alex Gordon all seem to be potential candidates via trade. With the exception of Blalock, most of those guys have better injury track records and could be as productive.

Another part was a mention about Josh Fields having a disappointing season. Well, how would you feel if you hit 23 HR in 100 games the previous season in the majors and still lose your job to a guy with injury issues? I'd feel pretty unwanted, blocked, and dejected. Anyone else think that might be a problem. Granted, Crede has been fairly productive in his major-league career, but Fields had to feel pretty hopeless down there in AAA.

Big Z Throws No-No

You have a right to celebrate, so go ahead.

Congratulations to Carlos Zambrano for throwing a no-hitter tonight against the Astros. Who here thinks this was a statement along the lines of "You've had a nice run, but remember who the better team is"? Who also thinks this just might be the bullet through the brain to the Astros' playoff run? I guess this also pushes aside any concern about his arm.

Trading Your Young Guns

Should he stay or should he go? (music not included)

It's a baseball saying that "You have to trade value to get value", and unfortunately for a young player like Yunel Escobar, that can get inside a kid's head. People don't like to hear they are going to get traded, especially when they've been playing well. They don't understand it. They grow up in a particular organization, and then when they've proven themselves in the majors, people start talking about the team needing to trade them away. This obviously doesn't happen when a team is winning. This happens when a team needs to rebuild. I've been making mentions of this in terms of the Giants trading Cain and Lincecum, but recently, Zach Greinke's name has come up from the Royals. So, if you're the GM of a losing team that needs to fill a few holes, do you trade your young stud for prospects (not just any prospects, the really good prospects)?

It's a tough question with consequences no matter which you choose. First, let's talk in terms of the Giants. If they keep Cain and Lincecum, then they have arguably one of the best 1-2 duos in the National League for the next 3-4 years. The problem is that it will probably be all for naught. They don't have an offense, and there really isn't any indication there will be one any time soon. Essentially, you'd be wasting them for the next few years until their mandatory jail time is up and they leave for free-agency, leaving the Giants with two draft picks each that won't help them for four years after that. Therefore, they don't get any decent players for another 8 years. So, do you trade them? That way, you get probably 8 good prospects (probably 2-4 will be really good prospects) to get the winning thing going faster. The problem? This isn't perfect. As I've said before, prospects are just prospects. They haven't proven anything yet. Getting them doesn't mean you get 8 good players. It doesn't even mean that you get 1. It's a risk either way. Looking at the Giants, they have a lot of problems, and they have some good-looking pitchers in the system. Trade Cain and Lincecum, and the Giants get the offense they desperately need.

For the Royals, how close are they to being good? I keep hearing how they're improving until they disappoint again. Is Gordon going to be the All-Star people expect him to be? Teahen? Butler? Now, we know Greinke and Soria would bring in a killing on the market. They could probably get some offense and pitching back. It depends on your outlook. Dayton Moore has said he'll go after the big free-agent again. Will it make a difference? Would they just be better off trading Meche, Guillen, Greinke, and Soria? Not next season, but they could be in a few seasons. I guess if you're a Royals fan, this seems like a broken record you've heard a million times. The problem always seems to be that they're stuck in the middle. They say they're rebuilding, but they spend money on free-agent. You just can't have it both ways. Either you rebuild, or you go for the gusto. Otherwise, you'll stay stuck right where you are.

For the Mariners, they have Felix Hernandez. Again, do you trade him? Is there enough hope next year having him, Morrow, and Bedard in the rotation? As we've seen this season, this team has a lot of holes, much in the same way as the Giants. They could solve a few by trading him off for a king's ransom. Maybe they won't, but again, is it worth letting him rot for no reason while you stay stuck in neutral?

These aren't easy decisions. You don't want to give up your young, affordable guys. You draft them, sign them, and develop them, so when they succeed, you don't want to give them up. Giving them away tells your fans that you have no faith in the team to win next year. The thing is, they probably won't win next season anyway, but for PR's sake, GM's hold on to the players in some vain hope that a miracle occurs leading to their playoff run. Granted, it puts you back a few steps, but it's like when you get your zipper stuck. You can keep shoving the zipper up when it gets snagged, but it won't help. You have to go back down, and then go back up.

Before you say that this causes the best teams to get better, you're only half-right. They do get better, but they only get better for the next few seasons, when you're rebuilding anyway. By the time you've rebuilt and the other bottom-barrel teams do this, the good teams have lost any farm system help. Essentially, you take them out from below. For every prospect you get that turns out well, one guy they get fails to live up to expectations. Then, when they need to bring up someone, they have no one to go to. Don't believe me? Look at the Braves. They were great, and they had a farm system. Then, they stopped getting free-agents and started trading away prospects (some worked out, some did not) ... all the time. Now, when their players have aged, their prospects are gone.

You have two choices. One, trade the players for prospects in an earnest, but full out, effort to rebuild. Two, keep them, and hope that you've gotten the right players to complement them. From what I've seen, it doesn't usually work out that well. Then again, just be the worst team for 6-10 years and then become the Rays. Either way, it's up to you. Actually, either way, you've got a 25% chance of getting into the playoffs. Good luck.

For IR Lovers

Update: There's another play later in the game, but it can't be reviewed due to the nature of the play. Chargers lose because of that (well, you can't lose a game over one play, but if they can review the play, the Chargers win the game). Instant replay is nice, but don't expect it to be perfect or to solve everything.

Just sayin', it's not full proof.

I was watching football today, and during the Denver-San Diego game, a disputed call early in the game was unable to be reviewed because of technical difficulties. Just sayin', it could happen in baseball as well. Then what happens if a home run is ruled incorrectly?

Manager of the Year

He's a great manager and the closest thing we have to a new Yogi Berra.

Some of the forgotten people during times of success are the managers. During losing seasons, they're usually the first to be blamed/fired. During winning seasons, everyone just expects that they're doing the job they should have. We spend a lot of time on the players, but we seem to forget the managers. Granted, the players are the ones playing, but the managers do deserve some credit. So, let's look at who deserves the award in each league:

American League

Joe Maddon (TB)
He's really the clear-cut winner in this competition. I'd be awfully surprised if he doesn't win. However, we really expected the Rays to be good, just not this good. Maddon has done a great job this season guiding a young team through a tough AL East. Not only that, they're the second-best team in the majors.

Ron Gardenhire (MIN)
If the Twins get to the playoffs, Gardenhire really should be the one to win. No one in their right mind expected them to win this season. They were supposed to be the worst team in their division other than the Royals (and some even expected the Royals to be decent and top the Twins). Yet, Gardenhire has worked his usual magic and gotten his team to a tie for the AL Central. Gardenhire is truly one of the most underrated not only managers but people in the majors. He's done so much with so little. At least, we knew the Rays guys had a lot of talent. We just questioned whether they could put it together.

Mike Scioscia (LAA)
He's the manager on the best team in the AL. The thing that will count against him is that they're the best team in the worst division in the AL, but like Gardenhire, he doesn't get the credit he really deserves for being a great manager that gets the most out of what he has.

Ozzie Guillen (CWS)
Another good pick for the award. Outside of his occasional expletive-filled rant, Guillen is a very good manager. Like Gardenhire and the Twins, most really didn't expect the White Sox to do much this season, but they sit atop the AL Central. If they can get to the playoffs without Quentin and Konerko, he should get some votes. Why does he get less credit than Gardenhire? He had much more to work with.

Terry Francona (BOS)
Boston wins again ... blah, blah, blah. It's not as easy as I make it out to be, but I guarantee that's exactly how the voters will see it, especially if they only win the Wild Card.

National League

Lou Pinella (CHC)
To whom much is given, much is expected, and the Cubs have lived up to expectations. He had a lot to work with from the start, but the Cubs are by far the most dominant team in the NL, and Pinella's a big reason.

Jerry Manuel (NYM)
The Mets are something like 20 games over .500 with him at the helm, and they've gone from terrible to very good in about half a season. He's mixed and matched in the bullpen. He's gotten Delgado to be Delgado again. Is it really him, or is it that the Mets could finally relax and realized things couldn't get worse? That question creeps into the minds of voters, and he doesn't get the award that he probably deserves, especially with top teams in the NL not playing well right now.

Charlie Manuel (PHI)
If they sneak in the back door, that's how he'll be remembered. They really are the best team in the NL East, but they let the Mets back in it and have played mediocre for the last two months. Not gonna get you a victory.

Ned Yost (MIN)
Can you win the Manager of the Year Award while simultaneously being on the hot seat? I guess so (see: Joe Girardi), but Yost won't, especially if they continue their tailspin all the way out of the playoffs.

Joe Torre (LAD)
No manager should win from the NL West.

Bob Melvin (ARI)
No manager should win from the NL West.

Nationals Win Championship!

They look like the Nationals, and they play like the Nationals. Too bad they play like an A ball team. The thing is, the A ball team actually wins.

Too bad it was the Potomac Nationals. Too bad it was their High-A team. Too bad it was against the Myrtle Beach Pelicans (the Braves High-A team). At least, this could mean that the Nationals could be good in about 3 years ... Nah.

Tigers to Trade Ordoñez in Offseason?

Could he do this in a Braves uniform next season?

I talked earlier about how this made sense to do because of Matt Joyce and Brent Clevlen. Now, John Morosi is thinking it wouldn't be a bad idea to trade him. This season, he is hitting .321/.380/.505 with 19 HR, 88 RBI, and 32 2B, so he's still a very productive player. However, at age 34, you have to be concerned with him declining eventually, but I don't think he'll decline too much next year, if any at all. He's in shape, and he's always a consistent performer. Also, he makes $18 million next season (possibly $18 and $15 million the next two seasons with options), which could be prohibitive. So my question (as always) is does this make sense for the Braves? They need power in the outfield, and adding him would definitely be a huge shot in the arm for this team. He'd slide into the four spot and go to town. The Braves will have plenty of money, so the $18 million shouldn't scare them away too much. He's also a pretty good outfielder defensively.

However, with guys like Raúl Ibañez, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn available this offseason, spending $18 million on Ordoñez would probably be more than any other of these players. With the exception of Ibañez, they're also younger (Ibañez has actually been better this year). Ordoñez would also cost quite a bit in prospects (could a Escobar-Ordoñez trade work?) unless the Tigers were willing to take Escobar and another prospect. With the state of the Braves farm system, I don't think they can afford the trade unless the latter scenario took place.

Travis Snider - ROY 2009?

Thick.

Travis Snider is a 20 year old left fielder in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. To me, it seemed as though they brought him up because they had no one better, and this way, they could see what he had. However, he's been more than that for the Blue Jays. Granted, it's only 11 games in, but he's got a .333/.368/.583 line. He's 20 years old. That's pretty ridiculous. Prospect analysts have been gushing about this guy for awhile, but now, we're actually getting to see him. He could be a pretty amazing player, and at 5' 11" and 230 lbs., he's already a solid young man (I mean solid). With him and Adam Lind around for the next few years, the Blue Jays have a very good nucleus to build from. Now, if only Rios would start hitting again.

Braves To Add Two Pitchers for 2009

Let's not repeat this. Let's bring in Sheets, Lowe, and Ibañez, and everything will be okay. Maybe.

Uh, duh? Haven't I been calling this since oh, May?

Somebody Shoot Me

Anyone else remember him on JAG?

Apparently, Barry Zito thinks that his mind is playing tricks on him. I read an article from the New York Times about why he's declined so dramatically. A few quotes:

"But the game speeded him up. You know, this is a tough game to be on top for years." -- Correct

"My curve and fastball are better now. But your body’s gonna do what your mind lets it do. You have to surrender to the pitch. You try to control the process, not the result. A New Age guy told me that the last thought you have before you let the ball go — I hope the batter doesn’t hit it — determines where it goes. All the preparation, off-season work, can be done in by that last thought." -- Mkay, but I'm not sure.

"I wanted to be more ‘professional,’" he said. "This new guy. Because of the Contract, I wanted people to know I was serious about pitching, not this flaky guy. I allowed the seriousness of things to creep into my mind. The city. The Contract. The fans. My new teammates. I wasn’t a blue-collar Oakland guy anymore." -- I can see that.

"But now I have to get back to that ‘age of innocence,’ when I realized how big things were and out of my control, and I just surrendered to it. I always played baseball because I loved it, not all these other reasons ... It’s a struggle for someone who’s super-aware, like me. It would be a blessing to be a typical jock." -- Uuhh, WHAT?!?!

I don't know that I can get past that last statement. It would be a blessing to be a typical jock. Please tell me that the "typical jocks" on his team string him up by his "typical jock" strap. I can see how his contract and pressure have gotten to him, but don't give me any bull about being "super-aware". He's given me no indication that he's more than the surfer boy he's always been. Also, if you just believe your dad's philosophies every time he gets a new one, it usually doesn't indicate that you're smart or "super-aware". It means either you're gullible or you don't think for yourself. That's not "super-aware".

I honestly wondered through the entire thing if it was actually just a big joke, but I think it's all completely serious.

My favorite quote:

"I just let it fly last night. Real success comes effortlessly, you know. The best fun is the game when you surrender to it. The hardest thing in life is to trust that something is gonna come. Like Rachmaninoff. He wrote . . . until he taught himself just to be an instrument of something coming through him. I made up my mind only a few days ago that’s what I was gonna do."

And ...

"Maybe I can laugh about this someday."

Yes, won't we all.

Cashman Being Diplomatic

Damn Yankees

Brian Cashman stated that the Steinbrenners have the right to restructure their organization in any way they wish. This is good because the Steinbrenners do own the team, and they do have the right to organize the team in any idiotic way they choose. In the article, Cashman seems at peace with their decision, but you have to know that he's really pissed under it all. He knows he (and only he) is being undermined here. No one else really seems to be at the heart of it. But the Yankees have to know that Cashman has every right to walk away from the insanity. Honestly, I think this is best. It seems like Cashman is slowly being pushed out, and Hank seems to want to play General Manager while Hal sits in the office watching over the money. Whether or not I think Cashman is a good GM (I'm kinda in the middle), he doesn't deserve this treatment, much like Torre didn't deserve it the year before. It really seems as though the Yankees are alienating a lot of people lately. Will that come back to bite them?

Baseball Losing That Loving Feeling?

I don't give Yunel enough credit for his defense, but Posnanski says he's the best shortstop right now.

For defense anyway, Joe Posnanski wrote an article about how baseball no longer really appreciates defense. Buster Olney disagrees with that statement. Olney points out Troy Tulowitzki in his argument. I'll finish this: Who would you rather have -- Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki? I think I'd take Hanley. I think most would take Hanley. He's the better offensive player, but Troy is by far the better defender. I don't know that there's an appreciable difference between the two as far as value goes, but most seem to side with offense. I'd like to think I wouldn't (although I think I take it into account more than most), but I think I'd go with offense.

Still Not Getting It

Franchise is living up to his nickname.

I'm not a sabermetrician, at least I don't consider myself one. Actually, can someone tell me what the definition of one is? Thanks, that'd be great. Anyway, Jeff Passan recently wrote an article about how young writers can influence this year's Cy Young voting by using statistics, and whatever else (I really need that definition), to claim that Webb is not the best. As one of his main points, he brings up the "win issue". Yet, he still shows what many lose sight of. It's not that sabermetricians, or anyone else, discounts wins totally. They are a good source of how a guy is doing. If I have a choice between a guy with a 18-4 record and one that is 9-10, then I pretty much know the 18-4 guy is clearly better. The problem comes when you're dissecting the cream of the crop. Out of the (16 x 5 = 80) pitchers that are in NL rotations (okay, there are actually more, but don't point that out), only about 3-5 are in the discussion. That's about 5% of the pitchers. When dissecting them, you can't look at wins because the difference isn't that great. While the difference between 18 and 9 is large, the difference between 16 and 19 is not. You can't say the 19 win pitcher is better because team factors can really influence those statistics. Let's look at Webb vs. Lincecum (I'm leaving CC out just to make this point, but I think he should be in consideration -- that's another debate):

Brandon Webb
19-7, 3.41 ERA, 197.2 IP, 166 K, 57 BB, 13 HR, 1.19 WHIP

Tim Lincecum
16-3, 2.54 ERA, 198.2 IP, 225 K, 74 BB, 10 HR, 1.18 WHIP

If you just look at the W-L record, then Webb seems to be the better pitcher. However, looking at just about everything else (except for walks), Lincecum has been better. In ERA alone, he's almost a run better. Obviously, Lincecum is the better pitcher. Most of the statistics are so far apart that you can take random umpires, fields, and defenses out of the equation. Again, records are useful, but they're the most basic form of comparison. They don't really tell you much. If the two players are within a couple wins and losses, then you have to dig deeper. If you have Harang (4-15) vs. Webb (19-7), then obviously Webb is better. But you can't necessarily say that about Lincecum and Webb. At the point of talking about the very best pitcher in the NL or AL, records are just not conclusive.

Why Re-Signing Teixeira is a Bad Idea for the Angels

He learned this from Scott Boras.

When looking ahead to the offseason for the Angels, one of their biggest questions will be how to handle Mark Teixeira. Should they sign him? Should they sign CC instead? Should they sign both? Neither? I'll talk more about this in my review/previews in October, but I'll just go ahead and talk about this specific situation now.

As for Teixeira, re-signing him is a bad idea. First, he's going to cost a lot of money and commitment to retain his services. I still think the Yankees are a perfect fit, even though Posada, Damon, and Matsui have declared that they'll play first, and if Hank is serious, I can't see him not going after the second-biggest free-agent while he has a gaping hole at first. Even if the Yankees drop out of the bidding (probably count out the Mets and Red Sox as well), some one like the Orioles (Braves maybe? It's maybe a stretch, but I could see it happening) will sweep in with a big offer. Second, the Angels have Kendry Morales rotting at AAA while he's hitting .341/.376/.543 there. Also, if the Angels for some reason don't let Brandon Wood (.296/.375/.595) play short, then I think he could play first. In other words, there are younger, cheaper options that will probably play well. You could take the sure route with Tex, but that's a lot of money and years to worry about.

As for Sabathia, I don't think the Angels really need to get him, but that rotation would be deadly with him. Then, the Angels wouldn't need Tex. Just think, Lackey, Sabathia, Santana, Saunders, and Weaver in the same rotation. If Escobar comes back, then you can either trade one or keep all six while having one in the bullpen. Still, with Nick Adenhart, I'm not sure they need to be spending that much money on Sabathia. It seems as though he'd be an added luxury, but that luxury would make the Angels more dominant than Tex would make them.

Rasmus to Be Shopped in the Off-Season?

Can we get a Schafer, Anderson, and Rasmus outfield? Sounds okay to me.

Colby Rasmus, who is one the Cardinals' top prospects and one of the best in the minors period, reportedly has problems with the Cardinals organization. Despite having problems with his knee, Rasmus is still a good player, and he's only 21 playing in AAA. Personally, if the Cards don't want him, we can make a Brandon Jones for Rasmus deal, and I'd be perfectly happy. Last season, he hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 HR and 37 2B, but those have gone down to .251/.346/.396 this season with 11 HR and 15 2B (in 30 fewer games). Somehow, I think the knee may have had something to do with it. Also, he did make a jump up to AAA competition, but I think he'll make the necessary adjustments. Actually, I doubt the relationship between Rasmus and the Cardinals isn't very good, but if the Cardinals trade him, it would be a big mistake with Ludwick and Ankiel getting older and up for free-agency soon.

Rockies to Trade Holliday and Atkins in Offseason?

Maybe we'll see a mega-blockbuster with the Indians getting these two for the entire Indian farm system. It makes sense on some levels, not so much on others.

Despite the fact that the Rockies could get a lot for both of these players, doesn't this go against them "competing"? I haven't really looked at the farm system, but the Rockies would be giving up two premium guys that could help them next year. Stewart would come in at third, and he could do a very good job (although probably not as good as Atkins would next year). Dexter Fowler seems to be the farm replacement for Holliday, but he doesn't scream left fielder offense. I guess the Rockies would get a good outfielder back in one of the deals (wouldn't it be great if the Rockies traded him to the Pirates and got Snell and Pearce?), but you're definitely giving up offense there. Also, if you wanted to trade Holliday, shouldn't they have done it by the deadline? If they weren't willing to give up a lot then, they probably aren't now. Granted, more teams could technically get involved in the offseason, but I don't think the Rockies will get a lot more now than they would have then.

Oh yeah, the Rockies still thought they were in contention. Oops.

I guess I shouldn't be too harsh considering the Astros are attempting to make me eat my words.

School Comes First

I miss these days terribly.

Sorry I haven't posted anything today. School seems to have caught up with me in unexpected ways. Thursdays always seem to get me. They're my busiest day of the week. Anyway, things should be back to normal tomorrow.

Peter Moylan

Well, at least he won't have those glasses next year. On second thought, I kind of like the glasses.

I've been wondering how he's been doing as it seems everyone wants to talk about Smoltz and Soriano, but I haven't heard anything about Moylan since the injury. According to Dave O'Brien, Moylan's recovery is going well, and his shoulder feels strong. There's even a reference that he could be a part of Spring Training next year, which makes his return in April or May even more realistic. It's great to hear because the Braves have really missed him.

Also in the article, Moylan talks a little bit about his family life, his divorce, and his kids. You can tell it really eats at him being half the way around the world from them during the season. It just goes to remind us that these guys are human beings. Moylan isn't a high-priced madonna. He makes near the minimum salary and does his duty when called upon. Yet, being a major-league player, something he fought very hard for, has ruined, or at least hurt, the other parts of his life. Usually, all we care about is the bottom line, wins and losses, but we forget that baseball has other affects. We lose our everyday lives while watching, but they're constantly reminded of what they're missing. Granted, they make more money than most of us ever will, but it doesn't mean that we shouldn't feel some pity for them. In a way, our high expectations as fans have caused this. It's our demands of perfection that cause them to work so hard. I realize that it is their choice and that most of them compete for the adrenaline, fame, and money, but it's just a sobering part of the game that no one usually cares about.

Ken Rosenthal Is a Thought Thief

I should be giving you that look mister.

Apparently, Ken Rosenthal has been reading my blog because his article today is almost the exact same as the one I published a few weeks ago. Actually, I doubt he did, and I doubt my reasoning is completely original. But still ...

I Swear

Stop it. Stop it. I'm warning you.

... if the Astros come back to take the Wild Card, I will give up all hope in humanity. There should be no way to come back from as far down as they did. Granted, they're still out four and a half games, so they still have a really, really tiny chance of making the playoffs. But that chance is bigger than the really, really minuscule chance they had a month ago. Maybe Ed Wade knows what he's doing ... nah. Just imagine if they still had El Caballo.

Smoltz Open to Other Places

One day, this will be his profession, but not yet.

As much as this depresses me, it doesn't surprise me. If Smoltz comes back next season, he'd consider playing elsewhere than Atlanta. He makes a great point that if he works as hard as he has, then he should play next season. Out of him, Glavine, and Hampton, I'm most open to bringing him back next season, but the price becomes an issue. I don't think picking up his $12 million option is a good idea, even if it is only for one year. It becomes more practical based on what the Braves can/can't get in free-agency/trade. He's been the most effective of the three pitchers, and he no doubt would have been this season until injuries ended his season. I believe he can still be effective, but the risk of injury makes $12 million too much. If he wanted to be practical and take an incentive-laden contract, that would be a great idea. However, that seems a bit disrespectful to act that way toward a guy who's meant so much to the organization. Overall, bringing him back for one season isn't the worst idea, but it won't make his retirement or letting him go any easier after that.

In whatever Smoltz decides to do, Smoltz has earned the right to do so. Still, I think the Braves bring him back if he's healthy, and with shoulder surgeries, that's a big if (no matter how great he says he feels).

Pujols to Have Surgery?

Now, I'm pleading with you to get surgery now. And stop smiling.

Apparently, the pain in Pujols' elbow has gotten worse because he is now thinking of having surgery to correct it. Typically, it takes six months for hitters to fully heal (it also helps that he's a first baseman that doesn't throw much anyway) from Tommy John. By my count, if he did it right after the season, he'd have October, November, December, January, February, and March to do it. That's six months right there, but he'd probably have to spend April in the minors to get back in the swing of things. Now, if they shut him down now, he could be back in March and be ready for April. I want to see him at the All-Star Game next season (my dad's working hard to get tickets) in St. Louis, so get the surgery now. However, the Cardinals still have this lingering hope they'll make it. Silly Cardinals, playoffs are for kids.

All-Over 35 Team

I love thinking how Delgado would look behind the plate.

In a sharp turn from the yesterday, I'll go through the best players over 35. In a season where anyone over this age is being scrutinized more heavily than ever, I feel like this is an opportunity to remind everyone that steroids may not have as much to do with decline in performance as thought. Just because GM's fear that 35+ year olds won't perform well, means that they won't give them jobs (a la Steve Finley, Kenny Lofton, etc.), but if they don't get jobs, how can they prove they're still good. I realize some older players have declined, but that's what happened anyway due to old age. No, we don't have any old guys turning into Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, but there are still quality players. Regardless, here are some guys performing at high-levels despite age.

C --> Ivan Rodriguez (.280/.323/.401, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 19 2B)
He gets a lot of crap for not being able to take walks, but honestly, he never really has. Still, he's improved in most areas, but he hasn't gotten the same playing time.

1B --> Carlos Delgado (.261/.346/.504, 33 HR, 100 RBI, 26 2B, 80 R)
Left for dead, Delgado has shown he still holds value (quite a bit actually). He now stands a chance at the MVP, especially if the Mets hold on.

2B --> Jeff Kent (.275/.324/.410, 11 HR, 57 RBI, 23 2B)
Still not a clubhouse favorite, Kent is still useful, just not as useful as he once was.

3B --> Melvin Mora (.283/.342/.493, 23 HR, 97 RBI, 27 2B, 74 R)
Who knew this guy was having such a good season? Like Markakis, he needs a new home, which he might be able to get now. Who needs a third baseman with the weak free-agent crop?

SS --> Omar Vizquel (.195/.257/.229)
Okay, you got me here, but I almost put down Miguel Tejada because who the hell knows how old he really is.

OF --> Manny Ramirez (.324/.424/.582, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 31 2B, 90 R)
Still one of the best hitters in game regardless of how you feel about his attitude. I just don't think he likes baseball.

OF --> Brian Giles (.300/.392/.444, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 32 2B)
Giles is still a good hitter, and he's walked 25 times more than he's struck out. With his OBP, that means something.

OF --> Raul Ibañez (.306/.371/.514, 23 HR, 102 RBI, 40 2B, 76 R)
He really doesn't get the credit he deserves, but he's a solid, above-average major-leaguer that will be highly-sought after this offseason. I wouldn't mind the Braves picking him up for two or three years.

SP --> Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130 K, 178.1 IP)
After seeming to lose it last season, Moose has found it and saved his career.

SP --> Derek Lowe (12-11, 3.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 132 K, 188.2 IP)
And the Dodgers don't know if they want him back next season? Where'd all their money go?

SP --> Jamie Moyer (13-7, 3.64 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 107 K, 173 IP)
Something, something, age and treachery, something ...

SP --> Tim Wakefield (8-10, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 102 K, 159.2 IP)
And the knuckler floats on.

SP --> Greg Maddux (7-11, 4.27 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 90 K, 175 IP)
Maddux still gets through innings faster than anyone else.

RP --> Arthur Rhodes (2.01 ERA, 20 HLD, 35 K, 31.1 IP)
He just pops on and off the radar at will.

RP --> Ron Mahay (2.88 ERA, 20 HLD, 45 K, 59.1 IP)
No one heard of this guy before being traded in the Teixeira deal. Now, everyone wants him.

RP --> Brian Shouse (2.39 ERA, 15 HLD, 33 K, 49 IP)
Another lefty, Shouse continues to get lefties (.177/.186/.292).

CP --> Mariano Rivera (1.43 ERA, 33/34 SV, 71 K, 63 IP)
For now, that big new contract looks good. Really good actually.

Big Mac Back in '09?

He'll be confronted with it every day if he comes back, and I don't think that's what he wants.

It is reported that McGwire thinks he can still hit and play if someone wanted him. I wouldn't read too much into it, even if he wasn't joking. He'll be 46 next season, and he hasn't hit in ... oh, forever against major-league pitching. Even if the A's are in search of a power-hitter, I'd be shocked if they signed McGwire. Especially considering the situation surrounding Bonds, I'm not sure how much teams will want him. Granted, he is not in the same situation as Bonds (hatred, trial, etc.), but he still has a stigma. First, he'd have to explain his Congressional hearing, and being in the majors doesn't hide you from the media in the same way he's been hiding since he retired. Second, the team would have to explain why the heck they gave a contract to a guy in his mid-40's who had serious knee problems in his mid-30's. I realize he wouldn't have to play defense, but taking all those swings when you haven't been for years doesn't help one make it through a season.

I like McGwire, but I just don't see this happening. The only way he's in a major-league uniform next season is if he's an instructor or coach.

Billy Wagner Out for '09

Now, all he can throw are bagels, just not the good baseball kind.

Yes, that wasn't a typo. Billy Wagner will probably not pitch next year due to a tear in his MCL. I don't think the Mets thought his injury was this bad, but he now has to have surgery. As for this season, it really doesn't change much as I think the Mets knew he could be done for the year. Now, they have to just continue the scary-go-round bullpen usage they've used for the past month. Someone has to step up to fend of the Phillies, who just showed they aren't out of it, and help the team through the playoffs. As for next year, this has to put the Mets as the front-runner or at least co-front-frunner for Francisco Rodriguez. Of course, they could also go after Fuentes as well, but K-Rod will probably get the first look.

Jeff Niemann

Jon Rauch-like with a better fastball.

According to Peter Gammons' blog, Jeff Niemann could be a part of the Rays' bullpen by season's end. I only remark on this because I saw him pitch against the Louisville Bats earlier this season, and he threw a complete game shutout. He was pretty much amazing. He threw strikes, and his fastball topped out around 97 on the radar at one point (he mainly sat 93-95 for the entire game). On baseball-reference, he's listed at 6'9" and 260 lbs., but when I saw him, he was that tall but didn't seem to be that big (although, I don't understand how weight to height ratios work very well). Anyway, Niemann is 9-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and 128 K in 133 IP, which is pretty good. He's only issued 50 BB, which isn't bad but not spectacular. From the bullpen, I imagine he could keep his fastball around 97 the entire inning-plus he'd have to pitch. He seemed to have a pretty good slider (from where I was sitting, the ball didn't dip much, but they were taking awful swings at it; plus, it was hitting about 85-87 on the radar). With him and David Price out of the bullpen, the Rays could end up having a very special bullpen (one that would be fresher than most as well).

All-Under 25 Team

That trade may be one of the most influential ever.

I always have a soft spot for young guys. In order to make the team, you have to be under 25 by the All-Star Break (I don't know why, but I need a limit). Here are the guys:

C --> Brian McCann (.292/.365/.524, 23 HR, 79 RBI, 35 2B)
He leads all catchers in most of these categories. Also, Mauer turned 25 in April, so he wasn't considered.

1B --> Prince Fielder (.262/.362/.476, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 75 R)
Joey Votto and Fielder actually have pretty similar lines, but Fielder is almost a year younger.

2B --> Dustin Pedroia (.330/.378/.501, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 45 2B, 111 R)
Is there really any doubt? The man should probably win the MVP.

3B --> Evan Longoria (.278/.352/.533, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 27 2B)
His numbers would be even better if he hadn't missed more than three weeks.

SS --> Hanley Ramirez (.294/.393/.526, 29 HR, 61 RBI, 30 2B, 108 R)
If they just wouldn't have hit him lead-off so much, those RBI's would be much higher.

OF --> Nick Markakis (.303/.402/.489, 18 HR, 81 RBI, 43 2B, 97 R)
No one ever talks about this guy, but he's pretty amazing. Place him in New York, and he'd be a star.

OF --> Ryan Braun (.301/.345/.583, 34 HR, 96 RBI, 37 2B)
This guy is simply amazing, but if he could only take a walk every once in awhile.

OF --> BJ Upton (.275/.384/.398, 8 HR, 64 RBI, 34 2B, 42 SB)
Sorry Matt Kemp, but Upton has a better OBP and speed. Plus, by the end of your careers, he'll probably also hit more home runs.

SP --> Tim Lincecum (15-3, 2.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 219 K, 190.1 IP)
The ace of any staff, and he's only 24.

SP --> Chad Billingsley (14-10, 3.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 186 K, 182 IP)
No one ever talks about this guy either, but he'll be the staff ace in LA for years.

SP --> Felix Hernandez (9-9, 3.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 157 K, 175.1 IP)
We're still waiting on him to be the mega-star, but he's still doing damn well. Name one GM who wouldn't want him.

SP --> Jon Lester (13-5, 3.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 129 K, 181.2 IP)
His story is amazing. His stuff is amazing. He is amazing.

SP --> John Danks (10-8, 3.44 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 141 K, 170 IP)
I really, really wanted to put Jair Jurrjens here, but his last few starts makes Danks a little better.

RP --> Jonathan Broxton (3.41 ERA, 13 HLD, 12 SV, 80 K, 60.2 IP)
Another Dodger no one really knows about. Well, you should.

RP --> Jose Arrendondo (1.43 ERA, 13 HLD, 45 K, 50.1 IP)
An Angel few know about, but he's been fantastic and the reason K-Rod won't be an Angel next season.

CP --> Joakim Soria (1.77 ERA, 35 SV (3 BSV), 61 K, 61 IP)
Too bad he plays for the Royals. They could probably get a king's ransom for him if they traded him.

P --> Joba Chamberlain (4-3, 2.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 105 K, 91 IP)
He didn't really fit any categories above (rather, he fit all of them), so I put him here. You just have to include him. Now, do the Yankees know where to put him?

K-Rod to the Cards?

Will people fall over themselves for K-Rod?

No, there aren't any trades being talked about, but next off-season now becomes the main focus. Initially, the Tigers seemed to be the front-runners to land K-Rod, but the Cardinals have now become candidates. Are there any rumors/interviews stating interest? No, it's purely speculation still. Regardless, I'm asking if this makes sense for the Cardinals. For the Tigers, he makes absolute perfect sense, unless Zumaya is healthy (in which case, the Tigers enter the same situation as the Cards). As for the Cardinals, I'm still partial to keeping Chris Perez in that spot, even though he's blown his last two saves. They could move him to set-up and let K-Rod close, but that doesn't make much sense. First, there WHIP's are almost identical (1.27 to 1.24). Second, K-Rod's strikeouts have really dipped from 90 last season to 68 this season in only 8 less innings. Third, K-Rod will probably cost $15 million. You know, if you really want to spend $15 million on relief pitching, you might as well spend it on multiple guys. There are plenty of guys to spend money on. You can get probably 4 good relievers for that $15 million, and in Chris Perez, you still have a pretty good closer. The Cards' bullpen is worse than just one closer. As for the Tigers, if Zumaya is healthy, he could close, and then, the Tigers really should spend the money on grabbing multiple relievers. If there are doubts about Zumaya's health, it might not be a bad idea to go ahead and sign him, even though it will hurt them in the long-term (but somehow, I don't think the Tigers are thinking that way).

Mr. Pickles Should Have Been First

Good ole' Mr. Pickles.

The San Francisco Baseball Giants were the first to bring up their first-round pick from this year's draft, but surprisingly, Buster Posey was not that man. Instead, former-Wichita State third baseman Conor Gillaspie became that man. Nothing really against him, but he only hit .269/.352/.344 in Rookie/A ball this season. In contrast, my man Mr. Pickles (Brett Wallace for those who did not catch my earlier post on him) has hit .337/.427/.530 in A/AA ball, and he's played even better in AA. Again, he's worth watching for next season if he continues to play so well. Anyway, I just thought I'd use this time to point out how well Mr. Pickles is doing so far.

Now, should Gillaspie be called up? Well, he didn't hit too well in A ball, so initially, I'd say no. But, there's really no harm in bringing him up to see how he does. If he doesn't do well, you can send him back down. If he does well, then you can keep him up. It's not like the Giants are any good anyway.

Bad News for Tex

Two of three ain't bad. The picture would have to be huge and they'd all look like ants to get Posada in the picture, too. Then, you'd wonder why the moron would give you a picture of dots. It didn't make sense to me either, so I gave you this picture. It has two of them, and two of three ain't bad. The picture would ...

It appears that Damon, Matsui, and Posada would all like to play first base. Well, they'd at least consider that. In other words, the Yankees wouldn't have to go out and spend a gazillion dollars on Teixeira. I still think Tex is the best idea for the Yankees to give them a Gold Glove first baseman who is relatively young. That team is too old, and he would be much younger while still very productive. Still, he's going to cost a lot of money, so it may not be the best option. Yet, the future first baseman of the Yankees don't look good, so I'd go ahead and do it. However, if the Yankees are serious, then the Orioles and Angels would be extremely happy, and Boras would try to find some loophole where the Yankees have to overpay for the best free-agent available.

Free Agency vs. Trades vs. Sticking with Your Farm System

The Past and the Future.

This is the debate that all GM's face. How do you build your team and sustain success much like the Braves and Yankees did for a decade in a half? Do you bring in free-agents? Do you make trades using your farm system? Or do you simply just depend on scouting and hope prospects come through? This is of particular interest to me considering where the Braves are (Note: I'm sorry about all the Braves posts lately, but I do try to bring in other stories as well) and what they have to do in the upcoming off-season.

Free agency today is considered evil. People have trouble remembering the last big free-agent who actually played well throughout their contract. Injuries and age leading to underperformance seem to be prevalent. Yet, isn't it necessary? There's no way (unless you really want to endure 5-7 losing seasons to keep getting top 5 draft picks) that a team can completely depend on their farm system. You have to be incredibly lucky to get all those players from your farm system. The thing is signing a lot of free agents lead to the Yankees' problem where you have an overinflated budget that doesn't perform up to par. In past years, you could count on one hand the number of Yankees who came up through the system and got chance. This year, it's a bit better as Cashman realizes the value of a farm system. So how do you handle it? First, don't go out and get mediocre players. Chances are that you can bring up a guy from the minors to play just a little worse (negligibly worse). For example, the Braves don't need to go out and sign Kotsay in the offseason when they have perfectly good replacements. Second, stay away from 6-8 year deals as much as possible, but don't always forgo them. Sometimes, when you desperately need something (like the Braves need an ace) and the best guy in baseball at the position is available, you have to splurge to get the best (CC has pitched a lot of innings, but look at Randy Johnson to find proof that guys can indeed endure it). Third, you can't splurge every off-season. You bog yourself down in big contracts, and unless you're the Yankees/Red Sox, you can't get yourself out from underneath. Fourth, take advantage of the Top 15 rule where if you have a top 15 draft pick, teams can't take your pick. The Braves will likely have one of these, so they can sign free-agents without fear. Doing it in other years hurts your farm system and fails to add impact players, like when the Braves signed Glavine. However, if you have a bottom 15 team, maybe signing a free-agent won't solve your problems. Yet, the Braves could solve a few problems by dabbling in the free-agent market this season, and they have the flexibility. They just shouldn't make it a habit. Fifth, do the most thorough physical you can. If they are perfectly healthy, then sign them. If they get injured, it probably doesn't really have much to do with their past, and anyone can get injured. If they're a really good player, then take a chance (If they have an injury history, then obviously give them fewer years). Sixth, go after high-reward players who aren't commanding much. Chances are they aren't commanding much because of injury or attitude, but for injuries, see rule 5. For attitude, most are usually willing to be better in order to prove everyone wrong, even if they weren't. Seventh, STAY AWAY FROM MEDIOCRE PLAYERS. Eight, no-trade clauses aren't the worst thing in the world. If they get injured, no one wants them anyway. If they play well, someone will want them, and you'll probably be playing well as well and won't want to get rid of them. If they're mediocre, then you are stuck in a bad position, but it won't be any worse than having an injury-riddled pitcher that you can't trade anyway.

As for trades, they have several advantages that free-agency doesn't have. One, the contracts are usually more manageable and less inflated. Second, you have more people to choose from. The problem with trading is that you have to give up something to get something. Free-agency only costs money, but trades cost prospects. The better the player coming, the better the prospects going the other way. However, remember, prospects are just that. They don't have experience, and they haven't proven anything. Getting the proven guy is usually the best route. Though, like free-agency, you can't go overboard. I feel this is where the Braves have really messed up. They have been so fervently against the free-agent market that they always trade for their players. They've brought in some good players, but they've also traded away a lot of good ones. They've depleted the deep farm system they once had. Trading is a good way to get good players, but doing it constantly is just as bad as constantly getting fre-agents. They have the same chances of getting hurt. The other bad thing is that they are on someone else's contract. You get them for the length of time someone else signed them, and re-signing them isn't always easy (ie. Drew, Teixeira, etc.). When getting a free-agent, you sign them for how long you will agree to keep them. Granted, the traded player's contract has to be agreeable, but it's much more difficult to find a good contract. The better the contract, again, the better the prospects are going back.

Is it best to just use your own players? In the perfect world, the answer is yes. They are cheaper and younger than any other player you can get either through the free-agent market or trade. Then, you build a loyalty factor to keep them at reduced rates. The problem is this is almost impossible. The Rays and Diamondbacks are nice stories, but remember the pain and suffering they had to go through first. You could tank a few seasons to get high picks, but that means losing seasons. With a disloyal base like Braves fans (who don't show up to games even when the team is winning), this is a bad idea to just lose. At least someone comes out when you win. Like the other two, depending full force in your system is a bad idea. You can have the best scouts in the business, but they aren't going to be right enough to make a full team. Take what you can, and fill in the holes through trade or free-agency. The thing is that the base of your team needs to be through this method. Otherwise, you have given up either too much money or too many prospects, or both. I would draft by talent, not slot. Take the money you save by not getting mediocre free-agents and sign the best player available, regardless of position. Even if you don't need a first baseman, take that first baseman if he's the best available. Obviously, if there are two players of about equal talent, then take the one whose position you need more, but don't forgo something great for someone really good. You never know who's going to turn out well, so take your chances on the better player. If you create a logjam, trade one of them for what you need. It's amazing how everyone needs something that someone else has.

So how does this pertain to this off-season's Braves? Wren has some decisions to make. Either he can rebuild for 2010-2011 or he could try to contend next season. If he wants to contend next season, he needs free-agents. The Braves don't have the impact prospects to give away. He might have to overspend to get his two starters, power left fielder, and lefty reliever, but he has the money. He could feasibly pull it off. He could trade Johnson, Escobar, or someone else to fill another hole in the midst of all that in order to save some money and commitments. If he wanted to rebuild, then forget about the free-agents. Put out a rotation of Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes, and Hanson and let it fly. That's the best way for them to learn. I bet one of Morton/Reyes/Hanson figures it out. Then, put Schafer, Anderson, and Lillibridge in the lineup to give this team a whole new look: speed. You might (might) give up some power, but with this team, power isn't exactly a luxury anyway. Adding speed would help reduce the need for power. In order to do this, trade Johnson, Escobar, Diaz, and even Kotchman to fill in the farm system and holes in the majors (obviously a first baseman would be needed in one of those deals). I would probably also trade Soriano (although it would be selling a little low, but someone would give you something good for him). I'd keep Gonzalez for now, and maybe trade him at the deadline unless I could get an impact arm for him. Spend some of the money on signing drafted players regardless of what they want (trust me, it's still less expensive this way; a couple million is chump change). Save the remaining money for the next few crops of free-agents/drafts/long-term contracts for guys like McCann and Jurrjens. Spending money because you have it isn't always the best choice. I love the Braves, and I would hate to see them lose. But I would also hate to see them lose with my hopes up. I would understand a rebuild, which probably wouldn't need a terribly long one (again, the team could be competitive by 2010 or 2011). I doubt most others would, but it would probably be the wisest decision. The team could contend, but doing so would tie up money (although Hudson's contract would be gone after next season, or not if the team felt he could lead a good, young rotation back into contention). Next season would be fun and exciting to see all the young guys go for it, but it would also be frustrating.

Contention lineup
Anderson/Blanco CF
Escobar SS
Jones 3B
Burrell/Dunn LF
McCann C
Kotchman 1B
Francouer RF
Johnson 2B

Rebuild lineup
Anderson CF
Lillibridge SS or Infante 2B
Jones 3B
McCann C
Traded guy 1B
Francoeur RF
Schafer LF
Prado 2B or Lillibridge SS

Talking About Being Biased

As usual, I was reading Buster Olney's blog, and I ran across this story by Tim Hadricourt. In the piece, he talks about official scorers being "homers". Instantly, I knew he had to be a Brewers beat guy, and what do you know, he was. What a shock! So let's have a little fun poking holes. First, I like how he only mentions this after his player is jipped out of a no-hitter (it was an error). Second, adding an umpire to score games is totally unnecessary. They won't be any more consistent, although they may know the official rulebook a little better. Again, this would correct maybe one call a game, but usually, scorers do get it right. In fact, I don't remember going to a game where I felt the official scorer completely missed a call. Fourth, this whole thing is so superficial that it's ridiculous. I'll give instant replay a little credit for actually being somewhat influential, but official scoring problems all revolve around making your players look better. For instance, changing a hit in order to give your pitcher a no-hitter or getting an error called on your already terrible defensive first baseman in order to save your reliever a few earned runs. I would understand the whole "We just want to get it right" argument if it wasn't so blatantly not at work here. Fifth, for such an inconsequential job, it would be pointless (and I think insulting) to give an umpire this job. An umpire makes a lot more money per game than a scorer, and he might call one play different. Can we say inefficient? Sixth, I love how he said all scorers are "homers" except for his own hometown scorer. You've got to be kidding. If that doesn't top off the obvious bias in this terrible article, then I don't know what does.

Now, time to step down from the soap box.

The Future of the Braves (Manager Edition)

143 and counting, but in my mind, those will come to an end around 150.

I have to wonder if the Braves had any other manager, would he be fired. After three lackluster seasons in a row, most coaches would be gone. Then again, after all the great seasons he did have, it seems logical to think that the last three years haven't really been his fault. Is this true? Is this season Bobby Cox's fault? How much longer will (should) he be in Atlanta?

Is this season his fault? No, to a point. The injuries to the starting rotation have killed this team, and that in no way is the manager's fault. Bobby is always cautious with guys who have injuries or show signs of them. Smoltz's wasn't his fault. Glavine's wasn't his fault. Hampton's injuries are just freakish. Hudson's wasn't his fault. They weren't overused to the point of injury. When you have the top 4 guys in your rotation get hurt, you're in trouble no matter who you are. Second, I consider it more Pendleton's fault for not fixing Frenchy. He's the one who is supposed to handle the batting, and he really hasn't done it. Third, Tex started slow, and when the Braves needed him to make up for Jeff, he failed. Fourth, the back-end of the bullpen got hurt (Soriano, Moylan, Acosta), and all were supposed to be major contributors to the team. Acosta's 41 games were by around 30 more than the other two. You can't simply replace those guys with AAA people. This season was a lost cause, but should it have been this bad?

No again. Bobby, like other managers, has his faults. Number one has to be his bullpen usage. I know the whole righty-lefty matchups, but when your starter has only gone 4 or 5 innings, you can't keep going by those. Major league relievers need to be able to get hitters out, period. Trot them out for an inning. Make them pitch against guys from both sides. If you can get 6 or 7 innings consistently, then you can think more about doing that. The Braves did not get that much help from their rotation. That's exactly why Ohman and Boyer have so many appearances. You can't look at innings when going by relievers to determine their workload. They throw most of their pitches in the bullpen warming up, so throwing one pitch really isn't throwing one pitch. A reliever's job is pretty easy compared to the others in baseball, but when you trot them out every night, it will wear them down. Second, he kept throwing Frenchy out there even when he wasn't performing. I'm not for sending him down to the minors, but you have to give him days off. 162 games is tiring and frustrating, and not taking days off only makes it worse. Third, he has to give Chipper more days off. He's not as young and durable as he once was, and even if he demands to start every game, he just can't. Letting him play all those games in a row only aids in wearing him down. Fourth, at some point, the Braves have to more aggressive on the bases. I know they don't have a lot of speed (which is why I advocate the starting of Lillibridge, Anderson, and maybe Schafer next season), but the Braves can't afford to play base-to-base baseball when no one is hitting home runs. Take a chance.

Losing this season wasn't Bobby's fault. This many injuries, especially to key players (Soriano, Moylan, Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, Chipper, Kotsay, Diaz), would kill anyone. Getting Bay would have been nice, but he wouldn't have made the Braves instant contenders, although the outlook for next year would have been much better. Were the Braves a 90-win team to start the season? There really wasn't too much debate that they were. Are they a 90-loss team now? No, but they certainly are playing like it. They still have talent, but they never seem to play with much heart. Even early on, I saw careless mistakes that just come from not being focused. Is that Bobby's fault? Yes for the majority of times. He has to keep the players in line and focused, and sometimes, Bobby seems to be a bit too laid back towards his players.

Regardless of how anyone feels, he is back next season, and I look forward to seeing him there. However, I think it might be best to part ways with him after next season. To me, it seems the Braves are stuck in the past. They remember the good ole' days of Smoltz, Maddux, Glavine, Chipper playing 150 games, Bobby in the dugout, and Leo rocking away. Yet, they aren't that team anymore. Eventually, the team must part ways, and although some fans may not like it, they really haven't supported their team through the tough times anyway. The real fans would understand. Smoltz and Glavine are icons in Atlanta, but they just aren't themselves anymore. Chipper needs more rest even as important to the lineup he is. It's time to let Jurrjens, McCann, and others take over. Force them to be the leaders because they still have some growing up to do. As for Cox, he is the least of the Braves problems, but it will soon come time to say good-bye to him as well.

Maybe I Was Wrong ... Maybe

Let's not forget the other reason we aren't allowed to like the guy. Why is it that professional athletes (including Bobby Cox) never seem to have these incidents stick to their reputation?

So Brett Myers just continues to mow down hitters. Maybe that stint in the minors really did him some good (he'd be one of the few). Since the Break, he's made 8 starts and had a 1.78 ERA while being one out away from going an average 7 innings over those starts. Pretty impressive, and it appears as though he'll continue to help the Phillies in their quest for the NL East crown (I can't believe I'm cheering for the Phillies). Still, it is only 8 games, so I'm not going to apologize for my earlier critiques of him. I'd still like him to finish the season this way and pitch like this next season. If he does, I'll be the first to admit my mistake. For now, I'll give him a hand while making sure he's not joshin' me.

The Future of the Braves (Relief Pitcher Edition)

Hopefully, there will be lots of this next season. I also love his windup. Love it.

This season, the bullpen has been a mixture of relief and fear. No one really knows how they'll pitch on a given day. For awhile, they were bad. Then, they were good for awhile. Since the Break, they've been bad, but I have to blame the injuries to the staff and Cox's bullpen usage for that along with the relievers just not pitching well. So, who is coming back/going to be there to help in the future.

Mike Gonzalez has been fantastic since coming back from Tommy John. His 3.38 ERA is a little deceiving as one appearance he gave up 3 runs in his second appearance back (and in a non-save situation) and 3 in another where he hadn't pitched for a week and was already down by 5 runs. His ERA otherwise is 1.17. Along with that ERA, he has struck out 27 in 24 IP, and his WHIP is 1.13. He'll be the closer next season, and maybe the Braves will extend him a year or two.

Rafael Soriano will be the main set-up man for the Braves if he is healthy, which has been a major question mark. From what I've heard, he should be back at the beginning of the year, but you never really know I guess. If he's healthy, he should be just fine in the eighth.

Peter Moylan will be the other set-up guy, but with Tommy John, we don't really know when he'll be able to come back. I'd say he'll be a lot like Gonzalez and come back around the All-Star Break, but there's a chance he could be back sooner.

Blaine Boyer will probably be one middle reliever. His 5.30 ERA isn't good, but you have to remember that he is just coming back from being out for almost a year and half (plus, Bobby's kind of run him into the ground). Before the All-Star Game, he had a 3.93 ERA in 51 appearances, but since, he's had a 9.53 ERA in 20 more. Bobby really needs to give him a break, but I look forward to Boyer being better next year.

Jeff Bennett has been very versatile, and my guess (I can't remember if he gets arbitration or not) is he'll be back next season. He's had a 4.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 83.1 IP this season. His biggest issue is that sometimes, for no apparent reason, his control totally alludes him, and his 40 BB are a perfect example (he's had 5 games with 3+ walks). If he can be a bit better (even if not), he's still a valuable long-reliever.

After that is a mystery, but Manny Acosta could certainly be an option, especially early on with Moylan out. Before his injury at the Break, Acosta had a 3.86 ERA in 42 games, so he was pretty effective, and my guess is he'll be given another opportunity next season.

In Richmond, there are a couple interesting guys. It seems we are always tantalized with Phil Stockman, the tall, lanky flamethrower, but we never get a good view of him. He's probably one of the ugliest guys I've seen, but he was perfect in Atlanta and had a 2.10 ERA in Richmond before his injury ended chances of a September call-up.

Zach Schreiber is another interesting guy to have with his 2.97 ERA, but his 26 BB in 39.1 IP is unacceptable. We can't have a middle reliever with a 1.40 WHIP, but he somehow kept the other team off the scoreboard, which has to count for something.

Jorge Julio (who I believe is a free-agent at the end of the season) might be an interesting guy to hang on to. He had a 2.04 ERA in Richmond with 45 K in 39.2 IP, but he did have 25 BB (a known weakness of his). Still, we like flamethrowers who strike people out. Watch him over the next month to see how he does.

In AA, Stephen Marek (the additional guy in the Teixeira trade) hasn't disappointed. He has a 3.21 ERA with 11 K in 14 IP. In the Texas organization, he had 57 K in 46.2 IP. Not bad, but his 1.29 WHIP may be a bit high (not too much though).

Luis Valdez may be the most intriguing of the bunch with his 2.76 ERA and 77 K in 65.1 IP, but he, too, walks a few too many with 36. At this point, he and Marek are only 24, so one more year in Richmond would be very good for their development. However, at this point, either one could probably come up and do fairly well.

I won't go any farther down because A-ball relievers just don't usually make it to the majors. However, the bullpen looks in decent shape for next year, and the sooner Moylan comes back, the better. If he's back and healthy, the back-end of the bullpen looks really good. The one thing the Braves need is a lefty reliever, which none but Gonzalez is. I would like to see the Braves retain Ohman on a three-year contract given how much money we have next season. Then, if things go badly but he still pitches well, we can trade him for a few prospects. However, I like Ohman a lot, but I didn't include him because his coming back is a bit ... precarious. Anyway, another thought would be to put Jo-Jo there to see if shorter stints might help him be more effective. I'm not sure if it would, and I think it's a little early to think that way. The Braves will probably look for a lefty reliever on the market, so I think there's a good chance they go ahead and keep Ohman for next season.

Don't Listen Baltimore Fans

I have no idea what the caption means, but it bears investigation.

When considering next year's destination, Randy Wolf won't necessarily choose the West Coast to be near his home. The past two seasons, he has chosen the Dodgers and Padres, but he doesn't notice a major difference in his life as a result. That could be terrible news if Mark Teixeira happened to be listening. Baltimore fans desperately want to bring him in, but if Teixeira realizes that it doesn't really matter where he plays (or that he can make his home anywhere), then Baltimore loses everything, every advantage it had. Not that I believed the Orioles had a chance in hell of signing him, but being his hometown was their advantage. Still, it is interesting to hear how being able to live in his home really didn't make a difference in his life. I guess when you're traveling for 6-8 months of the year, it doesn't really matter. In the offseason, you go home anyway. I never really thought about it, but it makes sense.

Win Shares

No, I have no idea what this means or if it pertains to this year.

I'm totally new to the whole "win shares" thing. I understand what it is and what it measures, but I don't really understand how they get it (math takes me a minute). Anyway, I've been reading a lot of the MVP debates (of which I've become tired because they change every day -- I'm sorry for mine earlier this season, and I'll just stick to the ROY and All-Star voting next season). I might write something at the end of the year, but honestly, whoever gets it pretty much deserves it. Anyway, I thought I would show you who FanGraphs thinks should win based on "Win Probability Added". Drumroll, please:

Lance Berkman (HOU) --> 6.53

Cliff Lee (CLE) --> 6.12

The top two players in the AL are Lee and Roy Halladay until you get to Joe Mauer. In the NL, Pujols, Holliday, and Carlos Lee are ahead of Tim Lincecum.

For those of who say that a pitcher can't win the MVP, I agree but probably for different reasons. I think the Cy Young is for the pitchers and the MVP is for the hitters. If a pitcher wins the MVP, then who is the MVP(osition player)? Maybe it doesn't matter because the whole thing is so subjective, but it seems fair to give one position player and one pitcher from each league the ultimate award. As for the MVP, I think the playoffs (like in the Cy Young voting) should be ignored. The playoffs don't show how important you are to the team. Look at Chipper Jones and how bad the Braves are without him (I'm not saying Chipper deserves the award). Guys like Berkman and Pujols deserve to be up there even though their teams didn't make it. The playoffs don't make them any less valuable. If they had a great year, they had a great year, and the playoffs, something over which they have almost no control considering they usually add a measly 3-6 wins, should have no bearing.

However, I do think pitchers are as valuable as an everyday player. Okay, relief pitchers are not, but I think we all knew I was talking about real pitchers (just kidding, I like some relievers, but seriously, 60 IP?). Let's take a look. I measured pitchers by batters faced per game, and I measured position players by total chances per start (coming in at the end skews it a little). For position players, I also gave them 3.1 at bats because that's what they need for the batting title. For catchers, they are involved in every hitter four out of those five games (to be conservative), so they are more valuable than a pitcher considering they also hit. For first basemen, I didn't count them up because their total chances are skewed by put-outs, and assists don't count pop-ups or line drives caught. Yet, their chances are mainly easy throws, so a pitcher is worth more as they are involved in more plays (I'll get to pitchers in a moment). As for second baseman, they make 5 plays a game (I average the top 5 -- it isn't perfect but name a stat that is), and adding their 3.1 at-bats, they get 40.5 plays in 5 games (the amount of time the pitcher makes a start and has his four days off). Third basemen make 2.53 plays a game, so adding 3.1, they have 28.15 plays. For shortstops, they make 4.42 plays per game (37.6 total). For left fielders, they make 1.76 plays per game (24.3 total). For center fielders, they make 2.66 per game (28.8 total). For right fielders, they make 2.17 plays a game (26.35 total). When I averaged pitchers, they faced 28.12 a game. Therefore, catchers, second basemen, and shortstops can be more valuable, and third basemen and center fielders are equal. However, when one considers that each pitch is like a play, the pitcher is much more valuable than any player because of the number of plays he is involved in. Each pitch is a play because each can result in a hit or an out, just like a defensive play or at-bat (pitches per at-bat wouldn't get near enough to make a difference). Therefore, the pitcher quantitatively is worth more than any other player, and I didn't even count their plays in the field. The pitcher has control over that many plays, and by succeeding, he becomes valuable, just as a position player who succeeds becomes valuable. Therefore, pitchers should be paid just as much as hitters, but their injuries seem more likely which makes them seem less worthy.

Still, they should have two separate awards for the pitchers and position players, and the Cy Young can count for pitchers while the MVP counts for position players.

Did that make sense to anyone else?

I Knew It

Here we go. Who wants to go down the creepy tunnel first? How far does the rabbit hole go?
Anymore cheesy movie lines people can think of?

I knew this would happen. You start instant replay, and then people call for more of it. If Jayson Stark is calling for it, you know others are thinking it. I never said that the replay system wouldn't work, but I did say that it would lead to more and more. It's not the 2 minutes it took to overturn/uphold (I don't really care which) A-Rod's home run last night. It'll be the 2 minutes every time they want another call challenged. Maybe there won't be a call every night, but if you give them a challenge system, the managers will think, "Well I better use it at some point right?" What are you going to take away from them, a timeout? I could see taking away a trip to the mound, but when you're the hitting team, it doesn't really affect you very much. If you don't limit it to challenges, they'll protest often. Then, you'll wait 2 minutes three times a game. Granted, that's only six minutes, but I think you'd get bored the same way we all do when football games have these problems. A home run is pretty easy, but is a trap? How long will it take to view that to figure it out?

Maybe I'm just a purist. I don't know. I just don't see what all the fuss is about. Umpires make mistakes. Hell, coaches make mistakes. Can we go back and review their bad decisions and start the play over? Sure, I'll be pissed when a call doesn't go the Braves' way, but I won't call for more replays (unless it's instituted, in which case I'll call for it all the time to make everyone else suffer).

Rant over. I'm sorry you read this, but this thing gets me riled up for some reason.

The Future of the Braves (Starting Pitcher Edition)

Yeah, you just keep doing what you were doing earlier. Not lately. You've not done well lately. But before that, you did great. Be more like that. That'd be great. Thanks.

Well, this is a hot topic in the Braves organization. What to do after watching your five-man rotation implode into a two-man rotation while your four highest paid pitchers get hurt? That even counts that Jorge Campillo came from nowhere. Before the season, the depth in the starting pitching was lauded, but now, the Braves find the depth to be as skimpy as the SI Swimsuit Edition. Also, what do you do about Smoltz, Glavine, and Hampton? Do you bring them back on incentive-laden contracts? For Hampton, I think it would be best to part ways, but he's the only one of the three I would honestly consider. Smoltz and Glavine, as much as I love them, showed this year why you can't count on 40 year old pitchers. They've meant a lot to this organization, but it's time to stop living in the past. Wren needs to address the future. Therefore, I won't include Smoltz, Glavine, or Hampton, but understand that any of the combination of the three could be back.

What a steal Jair Jurrjens has been. How does that trade look now? He's 11-9 with a 3.59 ERA in 165.1 IP with 120 K and 59 BB. He has been much more than anyone expected, and I bet he'll be the opening-day starter unless the Braves sign a Sheets/Sabathia/Dempster this offseason. You really can't say enough about how he's done this season, and I'm glad he'll be around for the next 5 years.

Jorge Campillo is another example of the Braves pulling guys out of thin air. He's 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA in 139.2 IP with 99 K and 32 BB. His nasty changeups have flumuxed players all season, and until lately, he's enjoyed a great deal of success. As long as the Braves can pencil him in that 4 spot, Campillo should continue to move along, albeit without quite as much success as this season.

Who to put next, Morton or Reyes? I guess Morton'll go next. He's 4-8 with an ugly 6.43 ERA in 72.2 IP with 48 K and 32 BB. He's been extremely enigmatic this season. He either pitches great by going 6 or 7 innings, or he comes out after 1.1 IP. He doesn't make any sense. Honestly, the amount of good starts gives me some confidence in him, not to be the ace but a decent pitcher. The problem with him is his mental toughness. When he realizes he doesn't have his best stuff, he seems to give up. Great pitchers (Smoltz and Glavine should be helping him) deal with it and compete. Morton hasn't learned that yet. At 24, he's still young and has talent. Remember, Maddux's first season's ERA was 5.61, Smoltz's was 5.48, and Glavine's was 4.56. Like quaterbacks in football, starting pitchers need time to learn, but if he has trouble next year, it won't indicate good things.

As for Reyes, he's only 23, so the future is still ahead for him. He can have Edinson Volquez to thank for my somewhat optimism (Volquez had a lot of problems as well before he turned 24). However, he hasn't been very good this year after having some extended time last year. Yet, he is a run better, and his strikeouts and walks are going in the right directions. Like Morton, he needs to develop some mental toughness to fight a bit harder. If he does, he really can be successful. He's had good flashes as well. He just needs to get a better mindset. Maybe he can, maybe he can't, but don't be surprised if Reyes and Morton end up being decent 3 and 4 guys in their careers. Still, I wouldn't count on much for next year. It would be good for them to duke it out for the fifth spot next season.

James Parr is one of the guys I told you to pay attention to, but I don't think anyone expected his six-inning scoreless debut tonight. Granted, it was against the Nationals, but they'd been playing well lately. Regardless, he has officially entered the radar, and I'll watch him the rest of the month to see how he fares. Who knows, maybe he'll be the fifth starter next year. His numbers in the minors have been impressive as he's given up fewer hits than innings pitched. God let him be good. PLEASE.

After Parr, one has to go all the way to Mississippi to find another worthy starting pitcher, and his name is Tommy Hanson. After posting a whopping 0.90 ERA in his 7 High-A starts, he moved up to Mississippi and posted a 3.03 ERA. Include his 163 K and 52 BB in 138 IP, and Hanson is on the fast-track to the majors. He'll probably start the year in AAA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the fifth starter next season. He's a big guy, and hopefully, he'll be like Millwood was when he came up.

Also in AA is Todd Redmond. He's famous for being the guy involved in the Tyler Yates trade earlier this season. What'd he do? He went 13-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 166.1 IP with 133 K and 33 BB. Pretty impressive. He's always had good control, but this might be his best year with the strikeout pitch. He'll be 24 next season, but he'll start out in AAA so he's not too old (actually, he'll be 23 for the first two months). He continues to add depth to the farm system, and he shouldn't be taken too lightly.

Another guy the Braves have been high on is Kris Medlen. He's been starting for the past half a season, and he's done well. He has 120 K in 120 IP with only 27 BB, so he seems to be another James Parr, which doesn't seem too bad at the moment (at the moment, I know. Get off my back). He'll be 23 next season, so add him to the list of young pitchers in the organization. He could also start off in AAA next season, but he'd be the one to lose out if a veteran (Rodrigo Lopez) is placed down there.

In Myrtle Beach, the Braves seem loaded, and as I alluded to yesterday, both the offense and pitching has done well. Therefore, I don't think the park has too much do with either's success. One man is Kyle Cofield who has a 3.26 ERA along with 80 K and 66 BB in 116 IP, so he's a bit too wild, although effective. Another is Scott Diamond who has a 2.89 ERA along with 123 K and 39 BB in 152.2 IP this season, so he seems to be better than Coefield (and he's a lefty). Next is Ryne Reynoso who has a 3.36 ERA with 105 K and 37 BB in 131.1 IP. The most exciting seems to be Cole Rohrbough, who was promoted after not being all that good in Rome, as he's pitched well in Myrtle Beach. He has 104 K in 90 IP with 39 BB, so he's wilder than he should be.

In Rome, Jeff Locke and Steve Evarts were the big names, but Evarts is injured and Locke has underperformed to an extent. Evarts did very well before getting hurt, but the injury (of which I cannot find, but it has to be fairly serious if he's been out all season) will stunt his development. Luckily, he'll only be 21. Locke still had 113 K in 139 IP, but his 4.06 ERA was a bit high. Still, I expect him in Myrtle Beach to start next year. As for Evarts, they might put him up their, but my guess is that he'll stay for at least a few months in Rome.

After looking at all these pitchers, it doesn't seem as though the cupboard is bare. However, what the group lacks is pizazz. There really isn't a "great" arm in the group other than Hanson. Hanson seems to be the saving grace at this point. Rohrbough, Evarts, and Locke (all left-handed) seem to be the bright arms, but they are a couple years away at this point (Rohrbough might be able to start off in AA, but I doubt it). Maybe one can stand out and move quickly. Still, if the Braves want to contend, they'll have to add at least two pitchers of the high-to-quite-highish quality.

Debate: Volquez/Hamilton vs. Lee/Quentin

Well, Hamilton won't win the Triple Crown and Volquez probably won't win the Cy Young, but there's no doubt this trade had its ramifications.

With reports that the Diamondbacks considered trading Quentin for Lee, I started thinking how big of a blockbuster that would be considering how well they've both played. Then, I wondered which trade would be better: Volquez for Hamilton or Lee for Quentin. Here are there stats up to today:

Edinson Volquez (Cin)
16-5, 170 IP, 174 K, 77 BB, 3.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Josh Hamilton (Tex)
.301/.363/.542, 31 HR, 121 RBI, 30 2B, 80 R

Cliff Lee (Cle)
20-2, 194.1 IP, 149 K, 27 BB, 2.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Carlos Quentin (Chi)
.288/.394/.571, 36 HR, 100 RBI, 26 2B, 96 R

So as you look at it, you see two MVP candidates and two Cy Young candidates. I guess I'd give Lee the advantage as for this season (especially due to his walks and WHIP), but Volquez is cheaper and controllable for longer. As for the hitters, Hamilton and Quentin are pretty similar except that Quentin is two years younger. Both have had issues (drugs and injuries, respectively), but both seem to be coming into their own. If I had a choice between the two, I'd take Quentin with his better OBP, SLG, and youth. So, which will have/has had/would have had the most impact? It's hard to say. In the end, I'd say the Volquez/Hamilton mainly due to Volquez being so much younger than Lee. At age 29, Lee is getting to the point where he could be "the man" for a couple more years, but Volquez is already "the man". Between Hamilton and Quentin, I don't think there's enough difference between them to give the advantage to either side, especially what Volquez could mean to Cincy.

Still, imagine a rotation of Webb, Haren, and Lee. Wow. Also, would the Indians have been better with that power-hitting outfielder they desperately need?

Slugging Percentage

This guy did his fair share of "slugging".

I don't know why I was wondering this today, but how accurate is slugging percentage? From my understanding, a single counts for 1.000, a double 2.000, a triple 3.000, a home run 4.000, and an out .000. Okay, so why is a triple better than a double in terms of "slugging"? In most instances, a double and triple are hit as hard as the other, but because of speed, someone can get a triple instead of a double. That doesn't seem right. If you're not "slugging" it any farther, than why are you getting 50% more slugging? Also, a home run is not hit twice as far as a double, but it gives the batter twice the slugging percentage. What about the double off the wall versus the home run that just barely clears (or goes off Jose Canseco's head)? It doesn't seem right. What about the bloop double instead of a line-drive single off the wall? Each counts completely different. Does it even out? Even if it does, a triple still shouldn't get more than a double, especially considering many are just doubles with bad defense. Shouldn't slugging perecentage be more of a distance thing, especially because "we have the technology"? Maybe, a ball hit 300 feet or fewer gets 1.000, 301-400 gets 2.000, 401-500 gets 3.000, and 500+ gets 4.000. How does that sound? It seems more accurate to me.

The Future of the Braves (Center Fielder Edition)

Hitting another single? I just hope no one realizes he can't hit an inside fastball before we can trade him.

After looking at the most depressing spot in the organization, center field comes as much needed relief as there are multiple options to play this season and next season. All are cheap and young. So let's get into it.

Right now, Gregor Blanco has had more major league at-bats this season, but he might be losing his spot. For the season, Blanco is hitting .254/.370/.312 with 1 HR, 47 R, 12 2B, and 4 3B. His average isn't that good, and his slugging percentage is horrendous. However, that OBP is pretty good. Unfortunately, for a guy with his speed, he only has 11 SB while being caught 5 times. If he wants to be the leadoff guy, this has to improve. Defensively, he's pretty good. He has good range and a good arm, especially for his small stature. Still, his utter lack of power is troubling when the Braves have other options who are as good or better. I say he gets traded while people focus too much on his unusually high OBP.

Josh Anderson is my pick to start next year in center field. In AAA, he hit .314/.358/.405 with 4 HR and 25 2B, which gives him more power (albeit he didn't have to do much). Those doubles come in very handy in the leadoff spot. Also, he has 42 SB in 49 chances, and if the Braves don't need those, I don't know what they need. Defensively, he's also a good defender with range and a decent arm. The biggest advantage for Blanco over Anderson is that he gets on base a bit more through walks, but considering the 12 point difference, there doesn't seem to be that much of a difference other than Blanco did it at the major league level. The clincher for me? Anderson's from Kentucky!

The next option is Jordan Schafer in AA Mississippi. He hurt his development by being suspended for using HGH, but he's played well lately. He's back in the good graces of the organization, and Wren even stated they haven't lost any faith in him. Still, this probably means he won't be the center fielder next season as he'll probably start off in Richmond. This season, he's hit .269/.384/.471 with 10 HR, 18 2B, and 6 3B while stealing 12 bases in 17 attempts in 86 games. He is also a very good defender and would play very capably in center. For an interesting thought, could he play left while keeping Anderson in center? He has some power, and he would be cheaper than anyone on the free-agent market. It probably won't happen, but it's a thought.

After Schafer, the Braves have an exciting player in Gorkys Hernandez down in High A. He has a .264/.348/.387 line with 5 HR, 23 2B, 6 3B, and 20 SB in 24 attempts. He would be the leadoff guy of the future for the Braves, and like the others, he can play center well. Chances are he'll be in AA next season and AAA the year after. Either the Myrtle Beach team is that good or their park allows for really good players. I would say that maybe the place is a hitter's park, but the pitchers have done really well, too. If they are this good, the Braves could be getting very good in about two years.

Center field is a bright spot in the Braves organization. With many good options, the Braves should be set here, and could use some of the excess to make trades for other pieces. For the next 6 to 7 years, center field should be just fine.

Braves Wild Win

Everybody and everything loves Brian McCann.

I was looking through the box score to this wild game in which the Braves won 16-14 against Florida, and I found some interesting tidbits. First, Brian McCann stole his fifth base of the year. Seriously? Five for McCann? That's incredible. I guess I can't call his running the "McCann Shuffle" anymore. Second, Francoeur hit a home run last night, which depressingly is news right now. Third, Blaine Boyer made his 73rd appearance of the year as Bobby continually tries to run players into Dr. Andrews' office. Fourth, Hanley Ramirez was 0-2 and still had 3 runs (4 BB). Fifth, Baker and Ross combined for a 8-10 night, but they only had 1 RBI among them. How does that happen in a game like this?

Anyway, this was just a weird game in which the Marlins came back from seven down only to lose it anyway.

Uh Oh

They're showing their "Oh" face, but it's really more of an "Uh-oh" face.

Just when Cubs fans were worried about Harden, Carlos Zambrano goes and gets himself hurt. The Cubs still won't lose the division, but this is bad news for the playoffs. Harden has to skip a start for "precautionary reasons" and now Zambrano has "arm problems". Neither of those give me too much faith that everything is going to be okay in Cubbie land. If the Cubs have those two by October, then no big deal and the Cubs roll, but if they don't, they can kiss the World Series good-bye, in much the same way they have the past 100 years.

Zambrano had been under watch after his previous game in which people saw his arm angle dip a bit. He's had this issue in the past to where he just needed to pitch through it, but if he has real arm problems this time, it might be something more than just a dead arm period. Paging Dr. Andrews.

The Future of the Braves (Corner Outfielder Edition)

The honeymoon's over. Sorry.

Well, this has been the most publicized problem for the Braves this season. No one has produced here. Diaz has been injured, Blanco isn't a corner outfielder, and Francoeur has been awful (to be nice). So who's in the plans for next season? the years after?

For now, Jeff Francoeur will be a fixture in right field. Trading him now is dumb on multiple levels (disclaimer: if he brings back a great starting pitcher or power-hitter, trading him is okay, but no one in their right mind would make that trade). First, they'd be selling low. Second, he's had two pretty damn good seasons before this one. Maybe this an aberration, and maybe it's not. Trading him now would be getting 20 cents on the dollar, so trading him later wouldn't be losing that much. Stick with him and hope he turns it around next season. As for those of you who say that the NL has finally figured him out, they figured him out a long, long time ago. He's no secret. Not after his torrid start in his rookie season. People have long known about his weaknesses. The problem hasn't been swinging at bad pitches (which he's done a lot). The problem is that he's missed the good ones so often. He's gotten good pitches to hit, but he's done nothing with them. He needs to get back in the cages (maybe with McCann's dad) and figure it out again. Stop stepping in the bucket, take the ball where it's pitched, and try a little discipline (honestly, the discipline isn't worse, but his mechanics have been horrible -- Pendleton or stubborness on Frenchy's part?). Give him next year. If he fails, ship him out, and I'll be the first to admit my mistake, but this guy deserves a second chance. I will state here and now that he'll win Comeback Player of the Year next season.

Matt Diaz has been injured all season, but let's be realistic, he's not the answer. He's a good fourth outfielder. Let him play in Spring Training, get healthy, produce a little, and trade him for a decent bullpen arm. He's a good line drive hitter, but expecting power production (he's never hit more than 12 HR) is a little out of the question (although his SLG was .497 last season). He will be 31 next season, so his prime has all but passed.

The next legitimate corner outfielder may be Brandon Jones, but his mysterious power outage (19 HR --> 8) is a bit scary. However, at 24, he could still have a bright future ahead of him. His .260/.343/.405 line looks fairly good, especially when considering he has 24 2B. With a little more muscle, those turn into home runs. If the Braves can't get a guy through trade or free agency, he could feasibly turn out well, but I wouldn't expect 25 homers.

Next in line would be 22 year old Willie Cabrera who was recently moved up to AA. He won't be an option next season, but he'll start the season in AA. All bets are off after that, but he probably won't be up until 2011. Regardless, he hit .290/.345/.473 in Myrtle Beach, and in an oh my moment, he only struck out 51 times in 116 games. That's impressive. If his discipline improves a touch more, than he could hit more than 16 HR and 32 2B. But again, he's not necessarily going to be able to help very soon, but you never know.

Jason Heyward is next on the list, and he might bypass Cabrera on the way to the show. He was promoted this month to give him some time in High-A before next season, and he has struggled a bit. Yet, it is only 7 games worth of at-bats, so I wouldn't worry too much. I could see the Braves rushing him a bit to get him to Atlanta faster, but I see High-A next season, AA in 2010, and AAA/MLB in 2011. They might push him a bit faster, but I think the start of 2011 would be the fastest.

Cody Johnson is another option, but he has one giant weakness: he's struck out 177 times in 127 games. I didn't stutter. However, he's got 26 HR and 2B on the season, so he's got quite a bit of pop. My guess is they move him up to High A next season, but if he doesn't improve those strikeout totals, he won't move quickly. All in all, he's 19 and has power, so he'll have a spot for the next few years. 2012 might be the earliest he's seen.

The corner outfield spots are pretty scary right now. No one knows if Frenchy can be counted on, and Diaz might be a stretch. The Braves probably need an outsider to come in because I'm not sure Jones is going to be an everyday player that hits 25-30 HR, and especially not next year. However, with guys like Cabrera and Heyward, the future doesn't look quite so bleak, but that future is a couple years away, not next year.

Harden to Skip Next Start

No, nothing's wrong. Really. I promise. Stop looking at me.

Rich Harden will miss his next start ... as a precaution. How many Cubs fan just cringed? However, the Cubs are saying that it was planned from the beginning to give him time off, and considering his injury list, that seems like a great idea, especially with the Cubs on cruise control.

Yet, Lou Pinella states, "Obviously, if he could pitch, we would've kept him in the rotation." What does that mean? Is he letting something slip? Is Harden really injured, and the Cubs are just trying not to startle anyone? I don't like it when people say, "If he could pitch" because that makes me think they aren't just giving him time off.

How many more Cubs fans just cringed?

The Future of the Braves (Third Baseman Edition)

Chipper is the greatest Brave I've watched. However, I voted for Hank on ESPN's greatest Brave poll.

Well, we know who the third baseman is now, but who the third baseman will eventually be is one of the biggest concerns in the Braves organization. Who takes over for Chipper? Does he come via the farm system? via trade? Who do the Braves have in the farm system?

Currently and since 1995, Chipper has been the spectacular third baseman (except for about 2.5 seasons) for the Braves. His red-hot start doused any concerns over whether or not he was still able to compete at 36 years old. His .359/.457/.569 line is still at elite levels, and he even plays better defense than he once did. Yet, his problem is durability. He hasn't played in 150 games since 2003, and there's no reason to believe he'll ever do it again. Still, the Braves can probably count on him being the third baseman for the next 3-4 seasons (depending on whether or not they extend him after next season, but I can't imagine them not).

After a breakout season in 2006, Van Pope put himself on the radar, but since, he's not hit very well in his two years in AA Mississippi. This season, he's been a bit better with a .260/.331/.360 line, but his lack of power doesn't profile well into a corner infield position. At age 24, he could still be worth watching, but it seems like he might be losing his star in the system.

A level down, Eric Campbell has shown real promise. This season, he's hit .268/.354/.505 with 13 HR, 59 RBI, and 9 2B in 51 games with High-A Myrtle Beach. However, he's been a bit inconsistent as he hit .221 last season. Yet, he still has time to get to the majors, and even if Chipper plays another three seasons, he'll be 26 when called up, which gives him plenty of time. It would be best if he developed quickly and had a good year in AA next season just to make sure in case Chipper's foot or groin injuries persist to the point that he might retire.

As you can see, there really isn't too much to be excited about in the farm system. At best, it seems as though Campbell could be the heir apparent to Chipper, but he's still at least two years away. If Campbell can avoid injuries, it is plausible that he could be a suitable replacement in a couple years, but don't get too excited. However, for the next few years, Chipper will be manning third very well, and if Bobby would give him a few more days off, he might stay healthier.

Key Players for Playoff Teams

He may have the biggest ears in baseball

With the final month upon us, teams need to play well. Players need to play well. Fans need to show their support. As I look at the teams that haven't killed their chances (see: Marlins), here are each team's key players:

Tampa Bay --> Evan Longoria
All but technically, Tampa has won the AL East. Boston sits 5.5 games back, and it would take a minor miracle to overcome the gap (see: Philadelphia '07). Therefore, they don't need to push the pitching staff to overcome anything, and the offense just needs to continue getting by. However, the Rays want more than a division crown, and if they are thinking World Series, they need Longoria healthy. If he comes back and gives them two or three healthy weeks, the Rays are poised to make noise in October. Without him, they're punchless.

Boston --> Jason Bay
It's go time for the Sox as they have to hold off Chicago and Minnesota for the Wild Card berth. Bay is going to have to produce. He replaced Manny, and now, he has to produce like Manny. Otherwise, the Red Sox are looking at an early-exit. Beckett and his health is a close second, but I believe Lester and Daisuke can handle the rotation enough to push the Red Sox far enough. Bay needs to produce (and so far, he has) to take up any slack given up by Ortiz and to complement Youkilis.

Chicago --> Paul Konerko
This season hasn't been a good one for Konerko, but any bad memories can be erased with a good September. Quentin, Dye, and Thome have held this team up all season, and expecting them to continue their massive efforts may be too much. If Konerko can find a way to get back to producing, he'll take pressure off the other three and keep away a feisty Twins team.

Minnesota --> The Whole Rotation
If Minnesota wants to overtake the White Sox, the young guys have to keep stepping up. If Liriano, Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, or Perkins falter, then the more experienced staff and offense in Chicago will walk away with the division. If they can stay strong, they can pull it off because they can't count on their offense.

Los Angeles --> Torii Hunter
Teixeira is a nice option for this, but you know he'll be there in the final month like he always is. Also, it's not like the Angels are in a desperate situation. So why Hunter? He hasn't been as good as advertised, and if the Angels really want to win, they need Hunter to give them that last push. Guerrero and Teixiera should be okay, but they need Hunter to be that other dependable, veteran presence in the middle of that order.

New York Mets --> Oliver Perez
Mr. Enigma needs to be enigmatically good over the next month. I don't know how much you can count on Pedro to be the No.2. Perez has the talent, and now's the time for him, the Mets, and his next contract.

Philadelphia --> Brett Myers
He has to continue to pitch like the ace he's been since the All-Star Break. If he doesn't, it will be tough for the Phillies to edge out the Mets for the division. Then, it will be even tougher to get past the 1-2 punches of Chicago, Arizona, and Milwaukee in the playoffs.

Florida --> Done

Chicago --> Jeff Samardzija, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Marmol
The Cubs are going to make the playoffs, and they'll probably win the Central. To win the World Series, they need the Fearsome Threesome to keep spinning hitters away. They've been nasty, and in the playoffs, great bullpens win big games. If one falters, it will put more pressure on the other two. Right now, they can count on each other, and that's the way it needs to stay.

Milwaukee --> CC Sabathia
The Brewers are going to make the playoffs. It's just a matter of how. When they get there, they need CC to be better than last year (1-2, 8.80 ERA, 15.1 IP in 3 starts). Otherwise, they don't have enough of a rotation to win without him.

St. Louis --> Done

Arizona --> Max Scherzer
He needs to be the Carlos Marmol, the Manny Corpas, the Adam Wainwright for this year's Diamondbacks. Their bullpen is the biggest question mark, and he could go a long way in shoring it up.

Los Angeles Dodgers --> Manny Ramirez
No one else has more pressure to produce than this guy. They love him now, but will they love him in October? Can he even get them to October?

The Future of the Braves (Shortstop Edition)

Update: Victory! I figured out how to make series such as this easier to find. In the right side under "Rumination Series", you can click on "Future of the Braves" to find all the articles pertaining to this. I'll do the same for future series and important blogs.

Stupid Ryan Church.

At this point, the Braves situation at short seems to be locked in for the next four seasons, but my question becomes should the Braves trade Escobar? Let me explain why.

Yunel Escobar has been a great player for the Braves this season. He's hit .286/.357/.388 with 8 HR, 55 RBI, 22 2B, and 64 R. Although the power numbers (or even the doubles) are down, Escobar is still hitting above-average for most major-league players, and with another year under his belt, he should be even better next season. Defensively, he has a great arm, although he still uses it in bad situations (leadng to his 14 errors), and great range. He does make some errors, but I think he makes up for those by making plays other shortstops couldn't. This guy could be very good for the next five to ten years, and he may even make a few All-Star Games if his power increases somewhat.

In AAA, the next best solution is Brent Lillibridge. At 24, he's a year younger than Escobar. As I stated in the "Second Baseman Edition", he's had an off year. Hopefully, this is just a bump in the road, and during his callup this month, he could prove an awful lot. He has the arm and range to play short in the major leagues, and he could plausibly be as good or better (in terms of power especially) of a hitter than Yunel. Maybe. That's the tough part. Do you trade Escobar because you'll get quite a bit back when you know you have a good replacement?

In High-A Myrtle Beach, Brandon Hicks is an interesting, although not particularly promising player. On the year, he's .234/.335/.480 with 19 HR, 56 RBI, and 23 2B. Obviously, he doesn't hit particularly well, and his stats were similar when he moved up to Mississippi to take the place of an injured player. What makes him interesting is his power and walk totals. If that average and strikeouts (122) improve, he could be a good player, but that's easier said than done.

There aren't too many options in the system for shortstop. It's really just a bunch of average, unspectacular guys. So do the Braves trade Escobar? On one hand, absolutely not. He's done so well, is so young, and should only get better. On the other hand, his value may be big enough to return something needed, like pitching or power. It's a tough decision. I really like Lillibridge, and I would like to see him in the lineup next season. However, I'd rather see Johnson go.

Webb Losing Cy Young Award

I guess that shot to the ribs did more than we thought.

Still having a great season, Brandon Webb is starting to make his Cy Young candidacy a bit more precarious with his last two starts (0-2, 12 ER in 8 IP). Two starts do not accurately measure a season, but voters really remember the last month. So far, Webb has not left a good impression. Meanwhile, Lincecum has not given up more than 2 ER in any ballgame he's pitched in August. If Lincecum finishes like this, and Webb only improves marginally and doesn't equal Lincecum, he could very well lose his grip on the Cy Young Award. More importantly, the Diamondbacks will lose their grip on the NL West.

Sabathia No-No?

He's not happy he didn't get his doughnut. You know what I mean -- his no-hitter.

Sabathia pitched yet another great game last night, and it ended up with him pitching a one-hitter. However, the one hit came on a check swing bunt back towards Sabathia that he misplayed. The official ruling was that it was a hit, but now, the Brewers are protesting the ruling to have the hit taken away and Sabathia given the no-hitter. Was it an error? Well, on one side, that's a fairly tough play for a pitcher, especially a lefty. He has to get off the mound, field it, and then turn around to throw. On the other hand, he had plenty of time. Even if he hadn't given up on the play, he might have still got the runner. From that perspective, the play is an error. The one thing that might hurt Sabathia's chances here is that he used his bare hand to try to make the play, not his glove. People don't like to give other people errors when they try to use bare hands in that way. In the end, that might be the crucial part to keeping it a hit.

My next question is should this be overturned. I guess it can be, and evidently, this is what the MLB has an office for, but it seems like a lot of hoopla for a play that ultimately means nothing. It won't get Sabathia into the Hall of Fame. It won't get him the Cy Young. It won't get the Brewers into the playoffs. They still won the game, and I think the MLB office is for plays that could have changed the outcome of games, not someone's personal achievements. Is there precedent for this, or is this opening the door for everyone else to send in videos to get a hit they needed to get to 200 for the season? Official scorers aren't there to pad stats. Sorry, CC.